Did anyone happen to catch the World Series game 4 pregame show on Fox? It went something like this -
Kevin Kennedy: Happy Birthday Jeanne!
Jeanne Zelasko: Thanks Guys. Since it's my birthday, none of you guys are wearing raincoats tonight!
....pause.....
JZ: Did that just come out right?
Joe Girardi: (oblivious to the double entendre) It sure did Jeanne. I bought a real nice raincoat today, but I'm not gonna wear it tonight!
Detroit gave the game away, IMHO.
Gonna go for the trifecta by adding CFL to the mix.
Football Lock of the Week: NCAA, NC State (+1.5) @ Virginia. NC State has lost some heartbreakers but is a much better team. NFL, Colts (+3) @ Broncos. Colts plus the points? Take that ANY day of the week. CFL, Winnipeg @ BC Lions (-3). This is a rest up game before the playoffs for BOTH teams. BC is the best in the west by far. [2006 Record 7-6]
Friday, October 27, 2006
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Waiting For The Storm To Pass (Through Cyberspace)
I'm back home after an exiciting weekend at ND. My plea to the Bills: Please draft Brady Quinn. You will sell tickets and #10 jerseys by the truckload.
Now I sit in front of my laptop still stuck in a quandry. Where/How do I pursue my online activities? It's not a question of legality - rather a question of uncertainty. I realize Stars is a safe choice to play poker, but it's not an option to me unless they offer bonus, rakeback or both. Also, I feel comfortable using neteller but I know that eventually I must choose another payment option.
I really wanted back on the Crypto gravy train but it seems the skins are jumping ship one by one. I'm not willing to go all out establishing a Canadian address until i know the sites will still be around.
What has become apparent to me is that whoring sportsbooks is probably more +EV right now than playing poker anywhere. Of the 600+ sportsbooks out there, less than ten (to my knowledge) have banned US players. Scalping double digit college hoops spreads seems like easy pickings to me. Add continuous 10-20% bonuses to that and it beats the hell out of $1/2 HORSE on Stars.
I have played some LHE on WPEX with consistent results. It is hard to lose with 100% rakeback. But the limitations of low traffic and hold 'em all the time is unappealing.
So I wait for this storm of uncertainty to pass. At least I look forward to election day, where my miniscule amount of retribution can be levied on the man.
Now I sit in front of my laptop still stuck in a quandry. Where/How do I pursue my online activities? It's not a question of legality - rather a question of uncertainty. I realize Stars is a safe choice to play poker, but it's not an option to me unless they offer bonus, rakeback or both. Also, I feel comfortable using neteller but I know that eventually I must choose another payment option.
I really wanted back on the Crypto gravy train but it seems the skins are jumping ship one by one. I'm not willing to go all out establishing a Canadian address until i know the sites will still be around.
What has become apparent to me is that whoring sportsbooks is probably more +EV right now than playing poker anywhere. Of the 600+ sportsbooks out there, less than ten (to my knowledge) have banned US players. Scalping double digit college hoops spreads seems like easy pickings to me. Add continuous 10-20% bonuses to that and it beats the hell out of $1/2 HORSE on Stars.
I have played some LHE on WPEX with consistent results. It is hard to lose with 100% rakeback. But the limitations of low traffic and hold 'em all the time is unappealing.
So I wait for this storm of uncertainty to pass. At least I look forward to election day, where my miniscule amount of retribution can be levied on the man.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Playing Pucks & Storm Aftermath
I'm home for one day between Buffalo and South Bend. Man, what a storm. I couldn't get into the city Friday night so I stayed a a ski resort motel about one hour out. The city is still pretty beat up - lots of my friends still don't have power. But we still found a way to put back a few adult beverages.
I will say that Buffalo is officially Sabres crazy.
Which brings me to hockey wagering. With the NHL, you can bet goal line (point spread) or moneyline. You can also bet regulation time or overtime included, which allowed me to develop this system which has paid over 20% ROI this season.
Here is a line from a game tonight:
OT Included: DET +107 @ ANA -117 (moneyline)
DET (+1.5) -249 @ ANA (-1.5) +229
Regulation: DET +110 @ ANA -120 (moneyline)
DET (+0.5) -139 @ ANA (-0.5) +129
Detroit is the underdog, getting +1.5 goals. So any one goal game (or any overtime game) and this bet will win. The NHL is all about one goal games, even with the new rules. I've been playing every game on the schedule, betting 2 units on the +1.5 goals.
But what if Detroit wins outright? Then this bet by itself doesn't pay very well. So we add a bet on Detroit to win in regulation (moneyline). Should the game go to overtime, this bet would be refunded. If the +1.5 pays better than -200 or the game goes to OT, you are basically freerolling on this wager.
To sum up:
1) Bet the underdog +1.5 goals (OT included) - 2 units.
2) Bet the underdog moneyline (regulation only) - 1 unit.
3) Repeat for every game on the schedule.
4) Grab a beer and watch some hockey.
I have only had one losing day so far this season, YMMV. BTW, the only site I know that offers regulation lines is Pinnacle. Good luck!
I will say that Buffalo is officially Sabres crazy.
Which brings me to hockey wagering. With the NHL, you can bet goal line (point spread) or moneyline. You can also bet regulation time or overtime included, which allowed me to develop this system which has paid over 20% ROI this season.
Here is a line from a game tonight:
OT Included: DET +107 @ ANA -117 (moneyline)
DET (+1.5) -249 @ ANA (-1.5) +229
Regulation: DET +110 @ ANA -120 (moneyline)
DET (+0.5) -139 @ ANA (-0.5) +129
Detroit is the underdog, getting +1.5 goals. So any one goal game (or any overtime game) and this bet will win. The NHL is all about one goal games, even with the new rules. I've been playing every game on the schedule, betting 2 units on the +1.5 goals.
But what if Detroit wins outright? Then this bet by itself doesn't pay very well. So we add a bet on Detroit to win in regulation (moneyline). Should the game go to overtime, this bet would be refunded. If the +1.5 pays better than -200 or the game goes to OT, you are basically freerolling on this wager.
To sum up:
1) Bet the underdog +1.5 goals (OT included) - 2 units.
2) Bet the underdog moneyline (regulation only) - 1 unit.
3) Repeat for every game on the schedule.
4) Grab a beer and watch some hockey.
I have only had one losing day so far this season, YMMV. BTW, the only site I know that offers regulation lines is Pinnacle. Good luck!
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Poker On Hold
I'll be traveling these next two weekends. First, I'll shuffle off to Buffalo for some booze, hockey, wings and skirts - but not necessarily in that order. I do expect some wagering to take place on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
Next weekend is the pilgrimage to the mecca of college football - South Bend, Indiana - for the ND/UCLA tilt. Plus I get to spend some quality time with Papa Buffalo, which is always a good thing.
It's a perfect respite from the virtual felt. 75% of my bankroll is tied up in paper checks "on the way", so I'd be doing more waiting than playing.
Coming up next: A post on hockey wagering. I know "wagering systems" rarely work, but my methods have been very fruitful this season. So tune in and judge for yourself.
Football Lock of the Week: NCAA: Rutgers (+2.5) @ Navy. A test for both teams - so take the points. NFL: Bengals (-5) @ Bucs. Unless Palmer gets hurt, the line should move over 7 by Sunday. [2006 Record 6-5]
Next weekend is the pilgrimage to the mecca of college football - South Bend, Indiana - for the ND/UCLA tilt. Plus I get to spend some quality time with Papa Buffalo, which is always a good thing.
It's a perfect respite from the virtual felt. 75% of my bankroll is tied up in paper checks "on the way", so I'd be doing more waiting than playing.
Coming up next: A post on hockey wagering. I know "wagering systems" rarely work, but my methods have been very fruitful this season. So tune in and judge for yourself.
Football Lock of the Week: NCAA: Rutgers (+2.5) @ Navy. A test for both teams - so take the points. NFL: Bengals (-5) @ Bucs. Unless Palmer gets hurt, the line should move over 7 by Sunday. [2006 Record 6-5]
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
My Take: Workarounds Are Worth It
My offer still stands... If anyone wants to meet me in Buffalo the weekend of October 13th-16th, I'm going to get a mailbox in Canada. I'll gladly forward your mail to you in the USA if you leave me the key.
One of my predictions came true: It is much easier to bet on sports now than play poker. I knew many poker sites would cut bait.
I need all of those poker sites back. Forget the fish population. I want my rakeback back. Remember, rakeback is a piece of what the house makes and the house always wins. Add bonus to rakeback and even a losing player makes a profit. So if all the fish are gone I should still come out ahead. (Besides, the majority of the hi-lo players are European anyway.)
As for the workarounds, you'll need a non-USA address to play unrestricted online. I'm getting a Canadian UPS Store mailbox. It's easy for me - I live right by the border. However, if you can make one trip a year to an international destination it can work for you too. (Just have them hold all your mail.) It's well worth the $75 USD/year to play at any site you choose.
What about banking issues? It starts and ends with Neteller. You MUST get the Neteller debit card. This will allow you to cash out to an ATM should Neteller decide to stop EFT's to US banks. Some have suggested that Neteller allows ATM deposits now but I haven't researched that option yet.
When you have your mailbox and your Neteller card - update your Neteller and poker site addresses to the mailbox address. (optionally, remove your US bank account.) Assuming IP addressses are not blocked, you're all set.
I also looked into international banks. Although it's not easy to get an international bank account from the US... it can be done. I found some Canadian and Puerto Rican options. However, it appears Neteller will play ball with US customers so the debit card will cover things.
I see a lot of financial opportunities here for the proactive players. Many will sit on the sidelines until it all sorts out.
Football Lock of the Week: NCAA, Texas A&M (-2) @ Kansas. NFL, Rams (-3) @ Packers. Possibly no Favre. After getting swept last week, I'm due to get a sweep back. [2006 Record 4-5]
One of my predictions came true: It is much easier to bet on sports now than play poker. I knew many poker sites would cut bait.
I need all of those poker sites back. Forget the fish population. I want my rakeback back. Remember, rakeback is a piece of what the house makes and the house always wins. Add bonus to rakeback and even a losing player makes a profit. So if all the fish are gone I should still come out ahead. (Besides, the majority of the hi-lo players are European anyway.)
As for the workarounds, you'll need a non-USA address to play unrestricted online. I'm getting a Canadian UPS Store mailbox. It's easy for me - I live right by the border. However, if you can make one trip a year to an international destination it can work for you too. (Just have them hold all your mail.) It's well worth the $75 USD/year to play at any site you choose.
What about banking issues? It starts and ends with Neteller. You MUST get the Neteller debit card. This will allow you to cash out to an ATM should Neteller decide to stop EFT's to US banks. Some have suggested that Neteller allows ATM deposits now but I haven't researched that option yet.
When you have your mailbox and your Neteller card - update your Neteller and poker site addresses to the mailbox address. (optionally, remove your US bank account.) Assuming IP addressses are not blocked, you're all set.
I also looked into international banks. Although it's not easy to get an international bank account from the US... it can be done. I found some Canadian and Puerto Rican options. However, it appears Neteller will play ball with US customers so the debit card will cover things.
I see a lot of financial opportunities here for the proactive players. Many will sit on the sidelines until it all sorts out.
Football Lock of the Week: NCAA, Texas A&M (-2) @ Kansas. NFL, Rams (-3) @ Packers. Possibly no Favre. After getting swept last week, I'm due to get a sweep back. [2006 Record 4-5]
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