Fantasy results are goot:
127 heads-up contests entered (NFL, NCAAF, NHL)
78 wins (ties not included)
61.42% win percentage
19.58% ROI
And NBA starts tonight.
I'm liking this routine much more than grinding poker. There are swings, just like poker, but the fault might be a player injury (instead of RNG variance). It's much easier to take when you have a bad night.
Collusion proof. UIGEA proof. Bank with paypal. So far so good.
The overall direction of the S.S. Buffalo Hold 'Em may have taken a new tack.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Friday, October 26, 2007
Gridiron Takes
Football Lock of the Week: NCAA, Louisiana Tech (-2.5) @ Utah St. Bulldogs win battle of the WAC basement. NFL, Eagles (+1) @ Vikings. Big day for Donovan against the worst pass defense. CFL, Saskatchewan (-4) @ Edmonton. Probably a rest-up game for the Roughriders, but they take care of business anyway. [2007 YTD 11-14-1.]
Thursday, October 25, 2007
I'm Worried About Online Poker
I haven't played too much poker lately. It wasn't for lack of looking for good games. All I've really played were the bonus freerolls I was awarded.
What concerns me are the lack of good cash games available to US players. I'm a split-pot and mixed games player. I'm assuming that things aren't any better for HE players.
I really only feel comfortable putting money on Stars and Full Tilt. Any other site doesn't even have the traffic necessary to sustain the games I play. Since FTP offers rakeback, they get most of my play.
The O8 games on Tilt have gone to shit. Last night I tried to get in a ring game while watching the Sox. Wait lists were 4 or 5 deep, but flops seen were low 30% for full ring. Too tight for micro-low stakes. Mid-low Stud 8 games were seeing 40% of flops (4th street). Too tight as well.
The HORSE games are ridiculous too. I actually sat down at a table where 4 of the 8 players sat out completely through the Stud (RSE) rounds. Paying one ante not to get booted off the table. WTF? Why not just play the HA version (HE and Omaha only)? Those players aren't generating rake for me or Full Tilt.
Now I play micro stakes up to $1/2 (occasionally $2/4). Good luck finding a full Stud 8 table above $3/6 online. All of the O8 games above $2/4 are dominated by players who used to play $10/20 and higher back in the day. They have their own little shark tank circle jerk on the 2+2 O8 board. Whenever you see a wait for a mid-high O8 game there is fresh meat sitting down.
The games have just dried up. These games are my forte, I used to reap the benefits of HE players donking off some chips waiting for a table. Now they are just rock gardens.
I'm saying this now and I was 3-tabling $.5/1 PLO8 less than 90 days ago. Things change quickly.
I'm not thrilled with the prospect of playing only tournaments, because of the variance.
Until the masses can trust online poker and deposit easily, it's going to remain a virtual wasteland (for me, anyway). I may become a Turning Stone or Seneca-Niagara regular.
Football picks coming soon.
What concerns me are the lack of good cash games available to US players. I'm a split-pot and mixed games player. I'm assuming that things aren't any better for HE players.
I really only feel comfortable putting money on Stars and Full Tilt. Any other site doesn't even have the traffic necessary to sustain the games I play. Since FTP offers rakeback, they get most of my play.
The O8 games on Tilt have gone to shit. Last night I tried to get in a ring game while watching the Sox. Wait lists were 4 or 5 deep, but flops seen were low 30% for full ring. Too tight for micro-low stakes. Mid-low Stud 8 games were seeing 40% of flops (4th street). Too tight as well.
The HORSE games are ridiculous too. I actually sat down at a table where 4 of the 8 players sat out completely through the Stud (RSE) rounds. Paying one ante not to get booted off the table. WTF? Why not just play the HA version (HE and Omaha only)? Those players aren't generating rake for me or Full Tilt.
Now I play micro stakes up to $1/2 (occasionally $2/4). Good luck finding a full Stud 8 table above $3/6 online. All of the O8 games above $2/4 are dominated by players who used to play $10/20 and higher back in the day. They have their own little shark tank circle jerk on the 2+2 O8 board. Whenever you see a wait for a mid-high O8 game there is fresh meat sitting down.
The games have just dried up. These games are my forte, I used to reap the benefits of HE players donking off some chips waiting for a table. Now they are just rock gardens.
I'm saying this now and I was 3-tabling $.5/1 PLO8 less than 90 days ago. Things change quickly.
I'm not thrilled with the prospect of playing only tournaments, because of the variance.
Until the masses can trust online poker and deposit easily, it's going to remain a virtual wasteland (for me, anyway). I may become a Turning Stone or Seneca-Niagara regular.
Football picks coming soon.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
The Skinny On Daily Fantasy Sports
It's become too difficult to wager with sports books/race books online. We were all spoiled with Pinnacle Sports. It's impossible to get an easy deposit/cash out or a decent line. Youbet does offer legal horse wagering, but no rebates (their rewards program = 1% rebate).
Since fantasy sports are legal, easy and skill based (according to the UGIEA), I've been playing daily fantasy contests instead of the sports books. Searching high and low for daily contests, I've decided to review the sites I've discovered.
(ETA: I have no ownership or affiliate relationship with ANY of the sites and this is NOT a paid review.)
From worst to first, here is the skinny:
6) Draftmix.com - Apparently still in beta, there are no contests being offered, only a mailing list. Maroon is supposedly involved with this site. Grade = Incomplete
5) USfantasylines.com - Offers contests that are more team based, instead of individual performances. Accepts paypal, has deposit bonus. Apparently only offering football and basketball. Currently no contests running. Grade = F
4) Instantfantasysports.com - Offers draft based fantasy games. Best looking site of the bunch. Accepts paypal, has deposit bonus. Apparently only offering football. Contests currently running. Fargis is supposedly involved with this site. Grade = D
3) Topgunfantasy.com - Offers jackpot based daily/weekly fantasy sports contests. No heads-up/small pool contests. Offers football, baseball, basketball and hockey contests. Accepts paypal. Contests currently running. Grade = C
2) Fantasysportslive.com - Offers salary-cap based contests, some are no-cap. Apparently only offering football and baseball. Accepts paypal, has deposit bonus. Contests currently running. Dr. Pauly and Joe Speaker are supposedly involved with this site. Grade = C+
1) Gamedaydraft.com - Offers group/flight based daily fantasy games. Offering football, baseball, basketball and hockey contests. Paypal accepted. Daily freerolls. Many low entry contests are rake free. Contests currently running. Grade = B+
Gamedaydraft gets my play because they are the only site offering heads-up hockey contests. I've won money in their daily freerolls too.
Nobody is offering NASCAR contests. How hard is that to set up? How about some CFL (or NCAA) love in the fantasy world?
If anyone knows about other daily fantasy sites, please drop me a comment or an email.
Since fantasy sports are legal, easy and skill based (according to the UGIEA), I've been playing daily fantasy contests instead of the sports books. Searching high and low for daily contests, I've decided to review the sites I've discovered.
(ETA: I have no ownership or affiliate relationship with ANY of the sites and this is NOT a paid review.)
From worst to first, here is the skinny:
6) Draftmix.com - Apparently still in beta, there are no contests being offered, only a mailing list. Maroon is supposedly involved with this site. Grade = Incomplete
5) USfantasylines.com - Offers contests that are more team based, instead of individual performances. Accepts paypal, has deposit bonus. Apparently only offering football and basketball. Currently no contests running. Grade = F
4) Instantfantasysports.com - Offers draft based fantasy games. Best looking site of the bunch. Accepts paypal, has deposit bonus. Apparently only offering football. Contests currently running. Fargis is supposedly involved with this site. Grade = D
3) Topgunfantasy.com - Offers jackpot based daily/weekly fantasy sports contests. No heads-up/small pool contests. Offers football, baseball, basketball and hockey contests. Accepts paypal. Contests currently running. Grade = C
2) Fantasysportslive.com - Offers salary-cap based contests, some are no-cap. Apparently only offering football and baseball. Accepts paypal, has deposit bonus. Contests currently running. Dr. Pauly and Joe Speaker are supposedly involved with this site. Grade = C+
1) Gamedaydraft.com - Offers group/flight based daily fantasy games. Offering football, baseball, basketball and hockey contests. Paypal accepted. Daily freerolls. Many low entry contests are rake free. Contests currently running. Grade = B+
Gamedaydraft gets my play because they are the only site offering heads-up hockey contests. I've won money in their daily freerolls too.
Nobody is offering NASCAR contests. How hard is that to set up? How about some CFL (or NCAA) love in the fantasy world?
If anyone knows about other daily fantasy sites, please drop me a comment or an email.
Friday, October 19, 2007
Burnout, Baby, Burnout
I've been playing poker only sporadically. I do participate in the bonus freeroll series every day, cashing in two events so far.
I finished 134 in the Blogger Donkerbowl of online poker, finishing ahead of most of the players I knew. Poker Babe Shirley finished 20th, she was among the chip leaders and I thought she was going to take it down. The eventual winner was on my right for about 90 minutes, he was not very good. He was actually short stacked most of the time I was there. He pissed off the table by continually talking Portuguese to his rail birds.
In the 4th hour, my QQ ran into AA, then my KQ ran into KK (the only player behind me) - no improvement and IGHN.
I play a little ring game action every day as well, but I haven't been able to muster up enough concentration to play a multi-hour, multi-table session.
-------------------------------------------------------------
I've been messing with horse handicapping, and the results have been mixed. I have been crunching numbers using Quick Horse software, and have been able to predict race winners consistently at 25%. Whether that is a good percentage, I don't know.
Applying the handicapping to wagering is even more difficult. You have to find value in your picks. That may mean waiting for a race with decent odds on a winner, or playing more exotic wagers. I still have a lot to learn.
I saw the ESPN "E60" report on Dr. Bob, the expert handicapper. What I don't get is why Dr. Bob only 'caps football and basketball point spreads. Does his formula not work for baseball or hockey? (And no CFL, eh?) It also seems there is a lot of value in money line plays. Bottom line - if he is capping at 64% over three years, and he is considered the best, not many people are winning consistently.
(ETA: 2+2ers are saying that 64% is a ridiculously high number, that 57% would be amazing. Not sure I believe that, I did 63.8% ATS on football in 2006 - albiet not as many picks as Dr. Bob. Also, Dr. Bob did not do very well prior to 2004. Perhaps his methods were not perfected back in the day.)
Football Lock of the Week: CFL, Toronto @ Montreal (-1.5). Alouettes need to avoid the turnovers. NFL, Ravens (-3) @ Bills. Buffalo plays just good enough to lose. NCAA, Miami-Ohio (-5.5) @ Temple . Owls have won two in a row... but they're Temple. [2007 YTD 11-11-1.]
I finished 134 in the Blogger Donkerbowl of online poker, finishing ahead of most of the players I knew. Poker Babe Shirley finished 20th, she was among the chip leaders and I thought she was going to take it down. The eventual winner was on my right for about 90 minutes, he was not very good. He was actually short stacked most of the time I was there. He pissed off the table by continually talking Portuguese to his rail birds.
In the 4th hour, my QQ ran into AA, then my KQ ran into KK (the only player behind me) - no improvement and IGHN.
I play a little ring game action every day as well, but I haven't been able to muster up enough concentration to play a multi-hour, multi-table session.
-------------------------------------------------------------
I've been messing with horse handicapping, and the results have been mixed. I have been crunching numbers using Quick Horse software, and have been able to predict race winners consistently at 25%. Whether that is a good percentage, I don't know.
Applying the handicapping to wagering is even more difficult. You have to find value in your picks. That may mean waiting for a race with decent odds on a winner, or playing more exotic wagers. I still have a lot to learn.
I saw the ESPN "E60" report on Dr. Bob, the expert handicapper. What I don't get is why Dr. Bob only 'caps football and basketball point spreads. Does his formula not work for baseball or hockey? (And no CFL, eh?) It also seems there is a lot of value in money line plays. Bottom line - if he is capping at 64% over three years, and he is considered the best, not many people are winning consistently.
(ETA: 2+2ers are saying that 64% is a ridiculously high number, that 57% would be amazing. Not sure I believe that, I did 63.8% ATS on football in 2006 - albiet not as many picks as Dr. Bob. Also, Dr. Bob did not do very well prior to 2004. Perhaps his methods were not perfected back in the day.)
Football Lock of the Week: CFL, Toronto @ Montreal (-1.5). Alouettes need to avoid the turnovers. NFL, Ravens (-3) @ Bills. Buffalo plays just good enough to lose. NCAA, Miami-Ohio (-5.5) @ Temple . Owls have won two in a row... but they're Temple. [2007 YTD 11-11-1.]
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Freeroll Like No One's Watching
I'm suffering some serious poker burnout. I have been playing my October series of value added freerolls - every day - and the results have not been good. No cashes yet. In Sunday's event I was dealt the hammer (27o) 14 times. Fourteen! Is that a sign?
I think part of the problem is I'm taking the tournaments too serious. These are freerolls, after all. People are pushing with anything at any given time. I may have to try that "go big or go home" style. I've been waiting for good hands that haven't arrived.
Boy, I'm no Genius (pun intended), but I have started capping the ponies in preparation for the Breeders Cup. I have an interesting capping method that I'll blog about at a later date, but so far it's yielded an ROI of 23.5%.
Football Lock of the Week: CFL, Saskatchewan (-7) @ Hamilton. Rough Riders are peaking at the right time. NFL, Titans (+3) @ Buccaneers. I'll take Vince Young and the points every time. NCAA, UConn (+4) @ Virginia. Huskies are the quietest 5-0 team in the nation. [2007 YTD 9-11.]
I think part of the problem is I'm taking the tournaments too serious. These are freerolls, after all. People are pushing with anything at any given time. I may have to try that "go big or go home" style. I've been waiting for good hands that haven't arrived.
Boy, I'm no Genius (pun intended), but I have started capping the ponies in preparation for the Breeders Cup. I have an interesting capping method that I'll blog about at a later date, but so far it's yielded an ROI of 23.5%.
Football Lock of the Week: CFL, Saskatchewan (-7) @ Hamilton. Rough Riders are peaking at the right time. NFL, Titans (+3) @ Buccaneers. I'll take Vince Young and the points every time. NCAA, UConn (+4) @ Virginia. Huskies are the quietest 5-0 team in the nation. [2007 YTD 9-11.]
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Quantity, Not Quantity
Or something like that. Wasn't there an 80's band with a similar name?
I've been playing tournaments and doing rather well. Took down a couple 45 man SNG's, cashed in a few others. Even when I don't cash I'm going deep.
The fly in the ointment is that I play a few of these, and I'm mentally spent by the 4th or 5th try. I usually shut it down when I reach that point. But the good news is I've recovered about 33% of my bankroll losses (from its high water mark).
This month I've got a truckload of value added freerolls to play, at least one every day starting 10/6. Included is the PokerStars blogger donkerbowl of online poker. So hopefully I'll play quality poker in the quantity of tournaments ahead.
Football Lock of the week: CFL, BC Lions (-1.5) @ Winnipeg. Lions excel on the road. NFL, Ravens @ 49ers (+3.5) . Baltimore struggles on the road. NCAA, Tulsa @ UTEP (+3). Neither team will have trouble scoring points. [2007 YTD 6-11.]
I've been playing tournaments and doing rather well. Took down a couple 45 man SNG's, cashed in a few others. Even when I don't cash I'm going deep.
The fly in the ointment is that I play a few of these, and I'm mentally spent by the 4th or 5th try. I usually shut it down when I reach that point. But the good news is I've recovered about 33% of my bankroll losses (from its high water mark).
This month I've got a truckload of value added freerolls to play, at least one every day starting 10/6. Included is the PokerStars blogger donkerbowl of online poker. So hopefully I'll play quality poker in the quantity of tournaments ahead.
Football Lock of the week: CFL, BC Lions (-1.5) @ Winnipeg. Lions excel on the road. NFL, Ravens @ 49ers (+3.5) . Baltimore struggles on the road. NCAA, Tulsa @ UTEP (+3). Neither team will have trouble scoring points. [2007 YTD 6-11.]
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
WBCOOP, Bitches.
I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!
This Online Poker Tournament is a No Limit Texas Holdem event exclusive to Bloggers.
Registration code: 8365461
Monday, October 01, 2007
My Take On The UGIEA Regs
You can read the just released regs here. Perfect reading if you are having trouble sleeping.
First, let me say that these regs are VAGUE AT BEST. Simply put, the regs are designed to filter out the "suspect" transactions at the "border crossing" stage. This means the transactions are reviewed when they become international transactions. I'm guessing this design was meant to keep the onus off the local banks, so they won't piss off the end user (you & me). "Sorry Mr. Buffalo, your transaction was denied by the intermediary bank. Enjoy your free toaster."
These regs are so convoluted - trying to appease everyone involved (in enforcement) - that they are almost just ideas and not actual rules. There are no real specifics, as I can see. So I wouldn't be surprised if you don't see any real analysis soon from the heavyweights (Russ Fox, I. Nelson Rose, etc.).
Here's what I do know:
Playing poker is not illegal. It has never been illegal. These rules do not try to stop poker playing. The Justice department has publicly stated they have no intention of prosecuting poker players under any circumstances.
These proposed regs do not (and should not) affect cashing out of poker sites. I know people argue the "If no fish are depositing the games suck" routine, but as long as I continue to get my advertising and rakeback, I want (and need) a secure cash out mechanism.
Finally, all of this begs the question:
How will the regs affect ePassporte? The REAL test will come when Youteller (or some new e-wallet outside the US) begins processing these transactions. Then we will finally know if these regs have any teeth at all.
First, let me say that these regs are VAGUE AT BEST. Simply put, the regs are designed to filter out the "suspect" transactions at the "border crossing" stage. This means the transactions are reviewed when they become international transactions. I'm guessing this design was meant to keep the onus off the local banks, so they won't piss off the end user (you & me). "Sorry Mr. Buffalo, your transaction was denied by the intermediary bank. Enjoy your free toaster."
These regs are so convoluted - trying to appease everyone involved (in enforcement) - that they are almost just ideas and not actual rules. There are no real specifics, as I can see. So I wouldn't be surprised if you don't see any real analysis soon from the heavyweights (Russ Fox, I. Nelson Rose, etc.).
Here's what I do know:
Playing poker is not illegal. It has never been illegal. These rules do not try to stop poker playing. The Justice department has publicly stated they have no intention of prosecuting poker players under any circumstances.
These proposed regs do not (and should not) affect cashing out of poker sites. I know people argue the "If no fish are depositing the games suck" routine, but as long as I continue to get my advertising and rakeback, I want (and need) a secure cash out mechanism.
Finally, all of this begs the question:
How will the regs affect ePassporte? The REAL test will come when Youteller (or some new e-wallet outside the US) begins processing these transactions. Then we will finally know if these regs have any teeth at all.
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