Without fail, every post about my profitability results in an immediate downswing.
Last night, oh-for-six. The golden sombrero plus two. (Way to lay down, Tampa Bay and Buffalo! There's this newfangled strategy called DEFENSE, look into it.)
Time to start a new winning streak, I guess.
Football Picks: NCAA, UCLA (+20) @ USC. I usually never touch a spread this big, but the Bruins are playing well enough to throw out the records. NFL, Falcons @ Rams (-3). This line has come off the board at a few books, so hit it while you can. [2007 YTD 19-21-1.]
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
The Roto-Donkey (plus updated stats)
I really didn't expect that they existed. For the uninformed, donkeys are poker players who think they are much better than they actually play. Usually players are called donkeys when their bad plays are rewarded. (Ahem... foreshadowing.)
In fantasy sports, it's difficult to actually BE a donkey. Just picking the most recognizable players should give you a respectable score and a handful of wins. To achieve true roto-donkey status, you must choose a less than profitable strategy.
Probably the primary rule in picking fantasy rosters is spread the risk. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. In fact, the UIGEA states that fantasy contests MUST have multiple teams/players involved.
What I'm saying is, picking your entire roster from one team (save one player to make the roster valid) is a bad strategy. It almost never pays off!
Except against me last night, you luck box roto-donkey. I'll take your action anytime, every time.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
No worries, I've been profitable. I'm actually on a 9 day winning streak since I gave up basketball contests. This one's for the bean counters:
Current streak: 45 games/32 wins (71.11%), 40.43% ROI.
Since my last shutout (zero wins 11/9): 221/124 wins (56.11%), 12.23% ROI.
November to date: 411/208 wins (50.61%), 1.58% ROI.
2007 YTD: 576/310 wins (53.82%), 4.68% ROI.
You can see how much basketball was killing me. If you take out the first two weeks of November, I'm still pushing about 20% ROI for 2007. Assuming I continue to get action, the 2007 numbers will improve.
In fantasy sports, it's difficult to actually BE a donkey. Just picking the most recognizable players should give you a respectable score and a handful of wins. To achieve true roto-donkey status, you must choose a less than profitable strategy.
Probably the primary rule in picking fantasy rosters is spread the risk. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. In fact, the UIGEA states that fantasy contests MUST have multiple teams/players involved.
What I'm saying is, picking your entire roster from one team (save one player to make the roster valid) is a bad strategy. It almost never pays off!
Except against me last night, you luck box roto-donkey. I'll take your action anytime, every time.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
No worries, I've been profitable. I'm actually on a 9 day winning streak since I gave up basketball contests. This one's for the bean counters:
Current streak: 45 games/32 wins (71.11%), 40.43% ROI.
Since my last shutout (zero wins 11/9): 221/124 wins (56.11%), 12.23% ROI.
November to date: 411/208 wins (50.61%), 1.58% ROI.
2007 YTD: 576/310 wins (53.82%), 4.68% ROI.
You can see how much basketball was killing me. If you take out the first two weeks of November, I'm still pushing about 20% ROI for 2007. Assuming I continue to get action, the 2007 numbers will improve.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Quick Picks
NCAA, Kansas St. @ Fresno St. (+1). NFL, Seahawks (-3) @ Rams. CFL Grey Cup, Saskatchewan Rough Riders vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+11). [2007 YTD 16-21-1.]
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
I Can't Get No (na na na) Hockey Action
Still grinding daily. I've been cleaning up in hockey. Not too many takers lately - I hope it's just the holidays or bloggers too busy packing for Vegas.
Basketball is a different story. I'm 0-14 in my last 14 contests. Brutal shooting nights follow me wherever I go. I decided to just play hockey until further notice, assuming I can get action.
Football has been slightly above break-even overall. Again, sticking to just hockey for now.
Handicapping has not been too kind this year. Everyone knows about all of the upsets in college, and the NFL hasn't been the league of parity we've come to expect. But the CFL is money (as always). Why more people don't bet it I'll never know.
Watch the Grey Cup on Sunday and you'll see some exciting football. Don't forget the Lenny Kravitz halftime show.
I haven't played any poker in over 10 days. It seems most bloggers agree that the games online are too tight/nitty. It might take a new US friendly site to shake the industry out of its doldrums.
Enjoy your holiday weekend.
Basketball is a different story. I'm 0-14 in my last 14 contests. Brutal shooting nights follow me wherever I go. I decided to just play hockey until further notice, assuming I can get action.
Football has been slightly above break-even overall. Again, sticking to just hockey for now.
Handicapping has not been too kind this year. Everyone knows about all of the upsets in college, and the NFL hasn't been the league of parity we've come to expect. But the CFL is money (as always). Why more people don't bet it I'll never know.
Watch the Grey Cup on Sunday and you'll see some exciting football. Don't forget the Lenny Kravitz halftime show.
I haven't played any poker in over 10 days. It seems most bloggers agree that the games online are too tight/nitty. It might take a new US friendly site to shake the industry out of its doldrums.
Enjoy your holiday weekend.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Almost Forgot Football....
CFL, Saskatchewan (+7.5) @ Calgary. Strictly a cover play. NCAA, San Jose St. @ Louisiana Tech (-5). The Alma Mater is tough at home. NFL, Chargers (+3) @ Jaguars. Garrard has a shaky return. [2007 YTD 15-19-1.]
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Why I Think Roto > Poker
I've been grinding daily fantasy sports for a month and here are some observations:
-Fantasy sports takes much less time than poker. I estimate it takes me an hour of prep time to select my team in each sport. However, once I've made my picks, I can apply them to an UNLIMITED number of contests. Imagine being able to play in 60 SNG's at once, fully focused, in the same amount of time it takes to play one.
-Once the picks are in, I'm free to do whatever else I want. I can watch some games to follow my players (or Tivo the games for later), or just chill (and perhaps play a donkament or two online.)
-Although variance exists in roto, it is MUCH EASIER to deal with than in poker. OK, Adrian Peterson got hurt, it's understandable why bad days occur. But also think about it from a poker perspective:
Did your AA just lose again to 83? (Frickin' snowman tater legs!) You just tell yourself that your AA would win in at least 70% of the time in that situation. That's how you avoid the tilt of variance.
In fantasy sports, you can actually put your lineup in dozens of contests. You can play one $200 game or 100 $2 games. You can spread your risk with the same picks, the same lineup, against multiple opponents. (This is something you cannot even do with a sports wager - you must pick one side or the other.)
-By spreading your risk across many contests, you actively combat variance every day. If I play 50 $2 contests, I'm very unlikely to win all 50, but I'm more likely to turn a profit. Conversely, playing one $109 contest gives me a greater chance to win $100, but also an equally great risk to lose $109.
-There is such a thing as "empty net tilt" and "garbage time tilt". Trust me.
-Fantasy sports takes much less time than poker. I estimate it takes me an hour of prep time to select my team in each sport. However, once I've made my picks, I can apply them to an UNLIMITED number of contests. Imagine being able to play in 60 SNG's at once, fully focused, in the same amount of time it takes to play one.
-Once the picks are in, I'm free to do whatever else I want. I can watch some games to follow my players (or Tivo the games for later), or just chill (and perhaps play a donkament or two online.)
-Although variance exists in roto, it is MUCH EASIER to deal with than in poker. OK, Adrian Peterson got hurt, it's understandable why bad days occur. But also think about it from a poker perspective:
Did your AA just lose again to 83? (Frickin' snowman tater legs!) You just tell yourself that your AA would win in at least 70% of the time in that situation. That's how you avoid the tilt of variance.
In fantasy sports, you can actually put your lineup in dozens of contests. You can play one $200 game or 100 $2 games. You can spread your risk with the same picks, the same lineup, against multiple opponents. (This is something you cannot even do with a sports wager - you must pick one side or the other.)
-By spreading your risk across many contests, you actively combat variance every day. If I play 50 $2 contests, I'm very unlikely to win all 50, but I'm more likely to turn a profit. Conversely, playing one $109 contest gives me a greater chance to win $100, but also an equally great risk to lose $109.
-There is such a thing as "empty net tilt" and "garbage time tilt". Trust me.
Friday, November 09, 2007
Sometimes Life Gets In The Way
It must be national annoyance week, because I am very annoyed. Too many instances to single out any one. Bah, humbug.
More later, regardless of my mood.
Picks:
Montreal Alouettes (+6.5), NY Giants (+1.5) HOME DOG, Indiana Hoosiers (+2.5). [2007 YTD 14-17-1.]
More later, regardless of my mood.
Picks:
Montreal Alouettes (+6.5), NY Giants (+1.5) HOME DOG, Indiana Hoosiers (+2.5). [2007 YTD 14-17-1.]
Friday, November 02, 2007
Another Week 'n tha LBC (Low Blog Content)
I don't have any motivation to play poker lately. Full Tilt sent me a "please come back" bonus, but I'm just not in the mood.
Maybe I'll jones enough to play a tournament or two. It's been awhile since I've played a stud tourney.
Fantasy sports gave me a nice 23.14% ROI for October. That's where my focus lies.
Football Lock of the Week: CFL, Edmonton (-2) @ Hamilton. Which team has the best scrubs? NFL, Seahawks (+1.5) @ Cleveland. Look for the Seattle defense to be the difference. NCAA, Wisconsin (+16) @ Ohio St. All of those powerful Tressel coached Buckeye teams have never beaten the Badgers by more than 5. [2007 YTD 14-14-1.]
Maybe I'll jones enough to play a tournament or two. It's been awhile since I've played a stud tourney.
Fantasy sports gave me a nice 23.14% ROI for October. That's where my focus lies.
Football Lock of the Week: CFL, Edmonton (-2) @ Hamilton. Which team has the best scrubs? NFL, Seahawks (+1.5) @ Cleveland. Look for the Seattle defense to be the difference. NCAA, Wisconsin (+16) @ Ohio St. All of those powerful Tressel coached Buckeye teams have never beaten the Badgers by more than 5. [2007 YTD 14-14-1.]
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