Windfall Football Follies

OK, now you can start fading me.

Oh and Three (0-3) in football picks this week. Four losing weeks in a row. 10-15 overall. I think it's safe to say I'm a little cold this year.

Maybe I should switch to futbol. I've still got three solid months to pull another winning year out of my ass.

While my picks have been bad, September was kind to me in the fantasy realm. I managed another winner this weekend, going 26 of 49 for a ROI of +20.65%. My strategies seem to be paying off. I make a mild profit when my scores are average, but really clean up when my scores are above average.

For the month of September, I cashed 124 times in 216 contests (57.41%), with an ROI of +33.39%. That is my best one month ROI to date.

I won back about 85% of my August fantasy losses.

I'm 3rd in the BFFB2 after week 4. I'm a little confused about the ramifications of the non-blogger scoring.

I do need to win a week outright if I want into the TOC.

I'm 2nd in Sundays w/ Dr. Pauly with one week to go. If I can beat Pauly's score and take the overall lead, I'll get into both the TOC and Super TOC.

I'm also doing well in the NASCAR contests but nobody seems to care about that.

Pick Three (Road Dogs Edition)

Football plays: CFL, Saskatchewan (+6.5) @ Montreal. West plus points is greater than east at home. NCAA, Colorado (+5.5) @ Florida St. A down year for the ACC. NFL, Packers (+1) @ Bucs. I trust the GB defense to stop Tampa more than vice versa. [2008 YTD 10-12.]

OT: Financial Crisis (long)

I have been glued to the TV and the intertubes over the last week. This downswing in our economy has been the best reality show I've ever seen.

I cannot wait for Ron Paul to verbally bitch slap Ben Bernanke this afternoon. Set your TIVO's.

Blinders recently made a post on the current situation and how we got here. I respect Blinders very much - he is a super nice guy and entrepreneur (not to mention an A+ poker mind). However, I disagree with him on the financial mess in many ways.

I'm not for the "bailout" - or whatever you want to call it. Obviously, I'm not heavily invested in the stock market and neither is my (rather lacking) retirement plan.

People who invest in the market have to understand there is risk. If the markets "collapse" (contract is the preferred term) - your investment lost value. That is a possible outcome of your investment.

It doesn't matter what caused the contraction: fraud, terrorism, incompetence - you assumed the risk when you invested. Period.

The markets haven't contracted significantly since 2001 and the financials haven't caused big contractions since 1987. IMHO, we were probably due. Just like poker, downswings are inevitable.

Which brings me to the finger pointing. Who's to blame? Blinders seems to think the distressed homeowners lack personal responsibility on this issue. I disagree.

When a home buyer takes out a mortgage, he/she has a choice for the duration of the mortgage: Make payment and retain ownership, or default on the mortgage, surrender the property and take a hit on their credit score. It is a loan, with the property as collateral. Car loans operate the same way. If you don't pay, they repossess your ass.

For many people, walking away from the disastrous collateral loans IS taking personal responsibility. It is their legal option and in everyone's best interest.

If the financiers didn't manage the risk or sold the mortgage in packaged securities, that's on them. They can't point the finger at anyone but themselves.

Home values have pretty much appreciated for my entire 42 year existence. We have been conditioned to buy homes by our environment, because it was considered the safest investment. But when housing prices dropped, some people got unexpectedly burned and now they think the sky is motherf*cking falling.

If you overpaid for your real estate, or you invested in too much real estate and got burned, you did not diversify your risk very well. Poor bankroll management, as I like to say.

I don't like the idea of a government assistance package (bailout) for the financials. I'm actually a socialist leaning guy when it comes to basic needs (i.e. health care, education). However, free markets should be free from this intervention.

Warren Buffett just invested $5bb in Goldman Sachs. Are there not 199 other entities on this planet that could invest the same? That would be a ONE TRILLION dollar investment in the financial sector without a dime from the taxpayers. (BTW, If there aren't 199 other potential $5bb investors on this planet, then the financials need to contract.)

The Treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, is requesting a minimum of $700bb to buy "toxic" debt from the financial companies. Are we really going to give this guy the discretion on how to spend $700bb when he might not be around in four months? (He'll be gone for sure if Obama wins the election.)

This bailout package will not stem inflation and will weaken the dollar by printing more money. The very notion that this plan or the eventual global recession will cause foreign investors to support US currency is way off. There are at least a dozen other currencies that are far more stable and secure than USD.

Meanwhile, as investors move to commodities like gold, oil and foods, we will be paying more for everything while probably making less.

There is a general consensus that we will not return to prosperity until US real estate begins to appreciate again. That could be awhile. Diversify your investments and keep your money safe.

In other words, protect your bankroll.

Sunday Goot.

I had my first big winner in fantasy football. Cashed in 30 of 40 contests. T.O. didn't even help out very much.

Split the weekend football picks, waiting on tonight's game to round out the week. A Jets cover will bring me back to .500 on the year.

I'm closing in on two weeks without any poker. I cannot remember the last time I've endured a stretch without the felt. Not sure I miss it enough yet.

I'm waiting for hockey to start up, mostly for the fantasy games. The Sabres always look good on paper, but as with the Bills, injuries & tight purse strings can always bring them down in a hurry.

Still, Sabres tickets will be hard to come by this season. Given the current state of the economy, I doubt I'll get back into ticket (re-)selling anytime soon.

Not Sure Which Way To Turn

It's been a rather "meh" week around these parts. Nothing going too much in either direction.

I had another mild winner in fantasy football. My QB has sucked both weeks so far. Hoping for a better performance in week 3. Right now I rank 8th in the BFFB2 and 9th in Sundays w/ Dr. Pauly.

I quit fantasy baseball for the remainder of the season. The weather has been too wonky, plus 40-man rosters = a lot of subs killing off your point scoring opportunities.

Hockey starts right around October 1st.

I haven't played any poker this week. I'm starting to get an itch, however. Maybe I'll play a freeroll and see if I still have the desire to play after that.

I went 1-2 in football picks last week. My bad on Toronto, I missed their firing of the head coach. The Argos are in total disarray.

Nothing sucks worse than going .500 in my picks. You can't make anything going with me and you can't make anything going against me.

Plays of the week: NCAA, LSU (-2.5) @ Auburn. Finally, weather is not a factor. CFL, BC Lions @ Saskatchewan (-2.5). Although I like almost anyone against Hamilton, I'll take the strong Roughriders at home. NFL, Jets (+9.5) @ Chargers. NY is good enough to keep it close. [2008 YTD 9-10.]

Can Fantasy Sports Be Your Job?

A faithful reader asks if it's possible to make a five figure income playing fantasy sports. (I'm assuming he means $10k+ annually, and probably $20-30k as a more realistic target.)

The very short answer is: Yes, it's possible.

The abbreviated answer is: While it is possible, there are only a handful (read that as less than 10 I'm aware of) that could do it.

However, the verbose response is a bit more complicated.

First off, you should not be playing any season long fantasy games with entry fees. These are ripoffs that are not good use of your bankroll.

If you are in any season long fantasy leagues IRL with no rake, then go for it. If the league is soft enough this would be adequate use of your roll.

Let's assume you are up to speed on all of the daily fantasy sites currently accepting US players. You will need enough bankroll to cover all of the action on all of these sites. Some of the sites have very light traffic, others have more activity. You must adjust your deposits accordingly.

A very important note - Even if you're trying for the high roller dollars, don't ignore the low buy-in games. You need these for your volume of play and usually these games have the softest opponents. Usually the caps are the same so the time investment for the extra contest in almost nil.

The games vary in skill depending on the site. Are you going to risk $213 on a "pick 3" game? Or perhaps risk the same amount on a roster of 9 players. This will still give you a chance to win if one of your players gets injured.

Also, if you have any notion of making a living on fantasy sports you must learn all of the disciplines. There are months when baseball and NASCAR are all that's offered. So, if you're a football guru, brush up on other sports. (Basketball and hockey run daily, fill your weekdays with those.)

Even if you're a fantasy sharp and you win 60% of all of your contests, you must play enough volume to generate your desired income. That's a lot of contests.

A little self-disclosure:

I have been playing fantasy for 12 months and I haven't made 5 figures this past year. (I did take extended breaks, however.)

Right now I'm only playing on one site and I would need to play multiple sites to reach the five figure goal.

In those 12 months I have had 10 winning months and 2 losing months. I am an overall winner playing fantasy.

My biggest daily swings are +$330 and -$390.

My biggest weekly swings are +$600 and -$500.

(None of these figures include any kind of affiliate income or rewards/bonuses. Just straight play against the rake.)

To sum it up:

IMHO I think you can make a few hundred a month EASY playing fantasy, but to make a living at it you will need a decent bankroll PLUS some soft live leagues to mix in with the online contests.

Football Time

I notice a lot of pundits are big on the Buffalo Bills bandwagon, especially after Tina Brady got K.T.F.O. Don't get me wrong - I root for the Bills but an injury to their big 3 offensive players (Edwards, Lynch, Evans) will put them in a bad way.

NCAA, Michigan @ Notre Dame (+2). Always a close game, give the nod to the home team. NFL, Falcons (+7) @ Bucs. Too many weapons makes Atlanta cover. CFL, Winnipeg @ Toronto (-3). Argos look to take a foothold on the East #2 spot. [2008 YTD 8-8.]

Quickie Update

I am dealing with some personal matters and don't have enough time or focus to adequately blog recent developments.

I played a bunch of poker this weekend with the marathon of freerolls. Entered 15 of the 24 tourneys, cashing in 9 of them. I blinded out of three. Won back 2/3 of what I lost in August.

I had a winning week 1 of fantasy football. Cashed in 21 of 37 contests. Overall, I have a 44% ROI to date in September. Still playing baseball most days. Hockey starts in about 3 weeks.

Football picks tomorrow. I haven't been doing so well, 8-8 on the year.

Tim Horton's just opened less than 1/2 mile from my house. I forgot how frickin' good their coffee and donuts are.

Right Frame Of Mind?

Basically, I've taken a week off from poker. I'm not sure how much I'm going to play this month.

I do know that tomorrow I've been entered in a series of value added NLHE tourneys. A marathon of freerolls, if you will.

I feel good right now. Ready to play. I'm loose because I have absolutely no expectation of winning. And I struggle with the concept of expectation.

All of the poker studies condition us to game selection, EV, etc. For example, I feel like when I sit down at an O8 table/tourney that I have an edge. I know for certain there are weaker players than myself. I expect a positive result to occur from that session more often than not.

Now we all know variance is a bad mutha and poor results can occur (for a variety of reasons). I am left scratching my head after poor results follow great expectation. I ask myself, "What can I do to improve my game, so poor results happen less often?"

Every poker discipline I've tried has had some major swings (both ways). Perhaps I'm just not emotionally equipped to handle the swings. Deep down I think about this often.

Back to the upcoming tourneys... I think I may perform well due to my lack of expectation. I've scored some decent cashes in the past with a similar scenario - general donkfest, some nice cash prizes, no worries.

I've always cashed well with a relaxed, "Meh, whatever" attitude as opposed to a hyped, "I'm ready to take it down" approach. Maybe the "No worries" in me makes me play a LAG-gier style.

Football Fever

Leagues are in full swing, get 'em while they're hot:

CFL, BC Lions (-4.5) @ Hamilton. Expect a turnover filled game. NCAA, Northwestern (-6.5) @ Duke. Only a hurricane could keep the 'Cats from covering. NFL, Seahawks (+1) @ Bills. It may be a long season for Buffalo. [2008 YTD 7-6.]

An August-ing Mess

I've just endured the worst month ever and lived to tell the tale.

I got crushed playing fantasy sports in August, winning only 44% of my contests. The loss was substantial and cannot be blamed on technical issues.

Maybe I could have managed the bankroll better. Maybe it was just variance. Maybe I was due.

Fantasy baseball does not have balanced scoring - you need pitching and hitting on the same night. Fantasy NASCAR does not have enough traffic to effect the bottom line either way.

With September starts fantasy football, giving me a glimmer of hope to rebound from my losses. I was a winner at football last year, although I did not play the volume I currently generate.

I will participate in the BFFB2 and Sundays w/ Dr. Pauly, assuming there are value added reasons to do so.

I'm just hoping I can build up some steam for hockey season, where I expect to clean up again.

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Poker is going just as bad. I busted my deposit on Stars this past week. I could not win in any discipline.

I felt like I was doom switched pretty bad. I probably leaked some, but always took time out when tilted and played lower & lower stakes until I went dry.

I've had rather good results on Stars in the past. Again, maybe I was due. I've certainly taken a step back to assess my game and my priorities. While I can continue to play poker as much as I want, I'm not sure that's where I should be concentrating my efforts.

I've had much worse downswings in the past, but never has one made me question my ability so much.

I will be playing poker listing's 24 hours of free rolls this Saturday. Maybe I'll cash a few for some bankroll boost.

Football picks tomorrow.