There Were Some Donations On My Behalf

(Unfortunately, they are not the tax deductible kind.)

Since my one day record on Sunday, it's been a downhill week. Monday and Tuesday were a wash, one winner and one loser.

Wednesday was a moderate loser, thanks to my blissful ignorance of Carmelo Anthony's suspension. He scored zero for my rosters and I lost several contests by less than ten points. Oops.

Thursday was a big loser, my biggest in a few months. Sidney Crosby got hurt, and I was swept in all 14 hockey contests I played. It happens.

The bad night really put a dent in my October ROI. While I'm still on pace for a record month, it stings a little.

I won a few hoops contests but I am still on a learning curve. I'm hoping the lessons will not be too expensive.

While I have no expectations of repeating last Sunday's monster success, a winner would be nice to get me out of this funk.

Football plays: CFL, Hamilton @ Edmonton (-6.5). Playing out the string. NCAA, West Virginia (-3.5) @ UConn. Big East title is wide open race. NFL, Steelers (+1) @ Redskins. Pittsburgh should contain big plays. [2008 YTD 15-21-1 <--- Thanks, Arizona for the fake FG try.]

Fantasy Tilt?

LOL at my opponent's team name:




I'm not sure what that even means. Is it good or bad?

(ETA: I lost this contest. This is obviously the optimum strategy to beating me - hiding my dope whip.)

(Update: Apparently I'm still a cracker. I thought this was called a pimp walk, but I guess it's a dope whip:)

Stunned. I Killed It. (And A Secret.)

I'm sitting here on a Sunday night following a rather "blah" WS Game 4. I found Game 3 much more interesting with its shifts, subs, strategy and general chaos on the base paths. I don't see the Rays coming back from 3-1.

The news flash of the day is that I exceeded my own expectations at fantasy sports. I managed to cash in 59 of 68 contests for a whopping +110.34% ROI. I was hoping to have a day like this for some time. I felt my strategy would pay off if I had a high scoring day. In spades, it did.

I managed to win the Chase contest, and improve on my high score. Three weeks to go.

I won my BFFB2 contest, but don't know just yet if I improved my position. Got 2nd in the SWDP contest, again waiting on overall standings.

I really don't consider myself a fantasy football expert. I certainly don't watch many games. But I will tell you this: I use a formula for picking my roster and I use a strategy for choosing my contests. There is NO intuition involved. I don't read souls.

So I'm a little stunned at my success this year.

But here's the real secret I haven't shared until now - I've spent the last six months working on a book about daily fantasy strategy. With 13 months of contests complete, I think I have a large enough sample to prove my strategies work.

However, each week I'm becoming more hesitant to publish my book. It will liven up a bunch of dead money. I'm not exactly sure if I would make more on the games or the book.

In summary, I killed it today. Not a bad way to make some cash on a lazy Sunday. ("Tim Horton's apple fritter mad crazy delicious!")

Football Weekend

I managed a winning night last night after three straight losers. Not feeling well today, so I'll keep it brief.

Football picks: CFL, Edmonton @ Saskatchewan (-2.5). All of the western teams have clinched. NCAA, Georgia @ LSU (-1). Another bounce back season for the Bayou Bengals? NFL, Cardinals (+4) @ Panthers. I like this even more if Boldin plays. [2008 YTD 14-20.]

Mid-Week Speed Bump

After my triumph on Sunday, I've managed to start the week with two losers in fantasy hockey. If one shootout goes the other way on either day, I have a winner. C'est la vie.

Basketball will be starting up on the 28th, I'll give that a whirl. I have a feeling there will be more action in that area. (It's just not my wheelhouse.)

So with fantasy football, hockey and basketball (just around the corner), join me at Fantasy Sports Live - if you're a new user, sign up with bonus code BUFFALO for a 20% bonus on a $100 deposit.

Wha' Happen? Oh, OK. Nice.

I thought I was sunk after the dismal performances by Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. After another roller coaster Sunday afternoon I finished up, going 53 for 76 with a +40.95% ROI. It was my biggest one day $$$ win in a month or so.

I managed adequate finishes in the BFFB2 and SWDP. I made up some ground on the blogger leader.

The NASCAR was washed out this weekend, which is good news for me. Only 4 contests left and I'm leading the standings in the chase.

The fantasy hockey traffic has been pretty light this week. I'm hoping it picks up a bit as the season gets in full swing.

Not much else to report. Carry on.

Somebody Is Making A Living With Fantasy (Not Me)

From Darren Rovell's blog:

"Jeff and Diane Suber live in a house that fantasy built. Their house in Frisco, Texas, was funded in part by Jeff taking home first place and $100,000 in Rotohog.com’s fantasy baseball contest last year.

And this year, the house is readying for two plasma TV’s thanks to he and his wife placing second and third. They also had some extra cash in the form of $5,000, after Diane came in fourth in the web site’s fantasy football last season."

Now a wife that lets you play fantasy sports for a living (and plays too)... that's pretty hot.

Football Futures

Football picks: CFL, BC Lions (+3.5) @ Edmonton. I need a slumpbuster. NCAA, BYU (+2) @ TCU. Obviously a trap game, but how can you pick against the #9 team? NFL, Chargers (+1) @ Bills. Buffalo has lost a CB and Edwards is still a question mark. [2008 YTD 13-18.]

Sometimes Stereotypes Are Hot!

I got a great chuckle out of this week's How I Met Your Mother. Not often you get a hockey reference on network sitcoms.

Clip set up: "Robin, remember the time you drank a 12 pack of Molson and got uber-Canadian on us?"

Video (Sorry, clip can't be embedded.)

I love the shout out to Tim Horton's: "Timmy Ho's!"

Did you catch Marshall during the girl fight: "Go America!"

The only thing missing were references to the loonie and back bacon. Cobie Smulders can be my drunk canuck any day of the week.

Fantasy Hockey, You Complete Me

(Perhaps I should replace "fantasy hockey" with Tim Horton's. I like to get my doughnut on.)

It's a sunny Monday here in the Finger Lakes and the sun also shined on my bankroll this weekend.

I managed to cash in 39 of 70 fantasy contests on Sunday, with a nice ROI of +33.24%. I had a bunch of football contests with decent scores but way out of the money. I was sweating a winning day all the way to the end.

But my love still rings long and true for fantasy hockey. After a very good opening night of 10 for 15, I've rattled off 7 for 7, 9 for 9, and 4 for 4. That adds up to 30 for 35 (85.71%). Tommy likey!

The scoring is so balanced in hockey. One of your studs (even your goalie) can completely crap out and you still have a chance to win.

I also cashed in all 4 NASCAR contests. I won the chase contest convincingly and should be leading the standings.

I even managed a winning week picking football games. I lost the CFL pick, I think I'm on an 0-5 streak with the great white north. I crushed CFL last year, I'm so surprised by the inconsistent parity this season.

I have to give a shout out to bonds for his 2nd BFFB2 win. While I don't think that contest rewards consistency, I have consistently finished behind him. Leave some cash for me, buddy.

Poker Time > Fantasy Time?

All seven of you that have followed this blog for more than a few months know I was a serious poker player - well, at least serious by putting time in at the felt. I was never bankrolled for anything above $2/4 and that was pre-UIGEA.

I started dabbling in daily fantasy in May 2007 and signed up for FSL in October 2007. Since then I've put in almost a full year of solid "fantasy time". (There were a couple of 1+ month breaks.)

During that period, I played both at the same time. I quickly learned that fantasy takes way less time than poker. And seeing how I was winning consistently, way less aggravation due to lack of downswings. Way.

I do enjoy playing poker, but I have become disenchanted with the online version. There is rampant cheating (overt and covert), technology issues (such as data mining) and the general inconvenience of cashing out.

In other words, I am beginning to see the light of post-UIGEA online gaming. Fantasy is 100% legal "skill" gaming, (paypal gladly accepted) and it takes less of my time.

I will still play live poker from time to time, but it's been a comforting break from the "boom headshot" crap.

So with fantasy football, hockey and basketball (just around the corner), join me at Fantasy Sports Live - if you're a new user, sign up with bonus code BUFFALO for a 20% bonus on a $100 deposit.

Gridiron Gaffes?

Let's try again, shall we?

Football plays: CFL, Edmonton @ BC Lions (-5). Lions are monsters at home. NCAA, Michigan St. (-1) @ Northwestern. Expect a shootout. NFL, Packers (+1) @ Seahawks. Green Bay should move the ball at will. [2008 YTD 11-17.]

Be Grateful, Don't Be Pissed

So I lost the Saturdays with Dr. Pauly 5-week series by .1 points. One freaking yard. One lousy spot of the football.

And for 2nd place, I got squadoosh.

Yeah it sucks, but I'm not looking at today, I'm looking big picture. As I said in a previous post, standings on a leader board are meaningless. (Unless cash is involved, which in this case wasn't much.)

FSL has been a windfall of free cash for me over the past year. While I readily admit that I gave some of that cash back, it has made me a solid profit.

Plus, fantasy football season 2008 has been perfect on FSL. Five winning weeks, zero losers. I'm pretty grateful for that and I haven't even run very hot this year.

As I look to tomorrow, hockey season starts on FSL with a chance to play for cash EVERYDAY between now and the end of the year. (Save three days and Christmas.) I expect hockey to be a good source of income.

So strap on your helmet (football or hockey) and join me now at fantasysportslive.com . Let's make some cash, because I don't think Santa is bringing much this year.

Somebody With Interwebs Skillz...

...ONE TIME!

"Can't wait to get a mouthful." Ewwww.

Pigskin Slop

Football picks: CFL, Montreal (-10) @ Hamilton. Just a matter of covering. NCAA, UConn (+7.5) @ UNC. Teams are evenly matched. NFL, Colts (-3) @ Texans. Both teams are improving. [2008 YTD 10-15]

What I've Learned Since Last October

I've played daily fantasy contests for 12 months. I signed up on FSL and GDD last October when hockey season started. In those 12 months since, I've racked up the following stats:

1400 for 2560 (54.69%), ROI +6.49%. I had 10 winning months and 2 losing months.

Nothing to write home about, except that I play fantasy a lot. But a deeper analysis reveals some gems:

-My biggest winning week was playing baseball contests.
-My biggest losing days/weeks were playing baseball contests.
-Remove baseball contests and I have ZERO losing months.

While baseball earned me a lot of wins, it was (and is) -EV for me to play. I would be further ahead in the bankroll department without it.

Fantasy baseball is a high variance game and I need to develop a new strategy for it. Otherwise, I must quit you.

Now, it's nice to be #2 (with a bullet!) on the FSL leaderboard. But the board is not representative of being a smart/winning fantasy player.

I give Kaiseroll13 his due, he is a worthy opponent. But he did have about 530 wins on the board when I signed up. So since my signup, I've had more wins.

But it doesn't amount to anything. You can play more contests to rack up more wins, while you are not maximizing your profits. More wins often mean less profits (which also means more rake for FSL).

I will admit I got caught up a little bit in catching Kaiser this summer. I think I got to within 250 at one point. But it was stupid of me to play that much -EV baseball and it crippled my roll.

So baseball is probably out for next year, unless they change the rules a bit or I find a superior strategy.

I think basketball is also a -EV scenario. Mostly beacuse there are only 7 roster spots. My opponents often have similar rosters to my choices, meaning only 1 or 2 players decide the whole contest.

All of the other fantasy sports have 9 roster spots, I don't see why basketball should be different. Most NBA teams go at least 10 deep in their rotation.

In summary:

-Baseball was a roller coaster ride that ended up costing me money.
-FSL leaderboard is nothing but a marketing gimmick.
-Basketball is -EV too.

Notice I didn't say much about hockey. I can't give away the milk for free, now can I?