Football Picks

NCAA, Miami (-2) @ NC State. The Wolfpack is too beat up to make a go of it. NFL, Chiefs (+3) @ Raiders. I refuse to believe Oakland is favored. Must be a misprint. [2008 YTD 23-25-1.]

Back On The Chain Gang

Thanks to everyone who sent me well wishes this week. I was quite sick, surprisingly so. I'm running about 92% efficiency today. Getting better every day.

Words to the wise: Get your flu shot!

I managed to sneak in some fantasy hockey during my illness, and I'm currently sitting on a three day winning streak. In fact, the last two nights were perfectos, going 10/10 and 3/3.

Unfortunately, with my big loser in week 12 football, I'm down for the month. I'm running out of days to make it into the black.

The most interesting development of the last week is my nebulous return to online poker. I started playing on Stars again, since I had a bonus to clear. After a few sessions of LO8 cash games, I realized I was doing pretty well. Either I got a lot better or the competition has softened up. Maybe a little of both.

I just a few short days I've managed to clear a 20x bonus and make silver star, after not playing on Stars in a few months. I've finally found a poker niche to grind, just hours before the 60 Minutes piece is going to smear "teh pokers" and perhaps ruin the fish pool. C'est la vie.

I also played in Pauly's Turkey Cup last night, going out on the first hand, and taking home "Gigli" honors for a last place finish. The hand details are on my twitter page.

Glad to be back at it.

Peddling Influenza

Updates in brief:

-I'm sick. I've been ill pretty much since I've been back from Buffalo. This weekend was particularly nasty, with a fever and all that comes with it. Still under the weather.

-My bankroll is sick too. I took a huge beating this week on FSL. Hockey has been a huge downswing this month and I just had the worst Sunday of the football season. While there were some statistical anomalies, I missed just about every player who put up a big day.

I'm not sure if my cold medicine messed with my picks, but I did gamble on a kicker and lost. (BTW, Tom Coughlin is a wishy-washy bastard.)

This past week was so surreal, I actually played online poker. How do you like them apples? LO8 is very relaxing if applied to the right situation.

More updates when I have the energy.

Blushing And Fuming

I've recently been mentioned in a few posts and I appreciate the acknowledgement. I never had any intention of becoming a fantasy sports fiend, it just kind of happened.

I realized I could make money in a smaller frame of time than it took to play poker. How I got there is another story for another time.

Being showered with praise doesn't change the fact that I'm losing at hockey this month. My goalies haven't won a game in a week. It seems to be a very topsy-turvy time in the NHL. Yeah, that's the ticket!

I had a mild chance a pulling out a winner last night until Ovechkin went on tilt and took a BAD penalty in the 3rd period. He's been money most nights, so I can't fault just him for my loss.

But I'm getting frustrated that hockey isn't creating better results.

I still believe my hockey skills are better than my football skills. I've just run good on Sundays and run bad on weekdays. Hopefully the winning will become more consistent than cyclical.

Football plays: CFL Grey Cup, Calgary (pk) vs. Montreal. Going with the hottest team to close the deal. NCAA, Boston College (+2) @ Wake Forest. Eagles become factor in ACC race. NFL, Panthers (+1) @ Falcons. The quietest 8-3 team in the league gets it done. [2008 YTD 21-24-1.]

-37? That's Not The Temperature...

I arrived home from Buffalo early enough to hit up the Tuesday night contests on FSL.

Not a good idea, apparently.

I got plenty of action in the hockey contests. However, my goalie choice, Pascal Leclaire somehow managed to post a score of -37. MINUS thirty-seven.

That's really quite remarkable. Most goalies get pulled before surrendering SEVEN GOALS.

I actually won two HU contests where we both picked the goalie of death.

I also donated $1 in hoops by picking Garnett. Suspension #3 that I've missed. But I didn't even finish last with my zero from KG.

All in all it was a typical losing night, nothing soul crushing. It still amazes me how bad I run immediately following any posts about a big win.

48 Hour Hiatus...

... to count my winnings! It was a good day. My 2nd best single day on record.

I managed to cash in 44 of 61 contests, for a whopping ROI of +119.11%. Money wise, this was awful close to my one day record in October.

Some interesting thoughts on today:

-I played contests in 4 of the 5 sports offered by FSL: Football, hoops, hockey and NASCAR. Baseball is out of season.

-I donated in hoops again. I played two $1 contests and was the ignorant victim of another suspension - Matt Barnes. I assumed (incorrectly) that like Nash, he had served his time.

-Kaiseroll13 and myself had the EXACT SAME ROSTERS in two different football caps. This resulted in the both of us splitting a fair amount of prize money. It appears we won a similar amount of contests today.

-I'm hoping to have won the "Chase for the cash" contest. I had a big lead with 2 weeks left. Lost most of it last week, but finished high enough this week (46 behind the winner) that I should take home the $50 prize. Free money is always yummy.

I'm headed off to Buffalo for the Bills/Browns game and attempted socialization afterwards. Looking forward to seeing some old friends and having good eats and drinks.

Unlikely I'll be on FSL Monday, so load up on your plays without me.

Slowly Turning The Titanic Around

(But parallel parking her is a bitch.)

I managed to put together four straight winning days on FSL, cutting my November losses by more than half. I ended up a loser last night, but only by a few clams.

I have experimented with some hoops strategies and found one that seems to work. However, not enough data yet to risk serious cash.

Hockey is continuing along quite well, although I'm having trouble finding HU action beyond one or two tilts.

Football plays: CFL, BC Lions @ Calgary (-6). Going with the hot team, can the Stampeders beat the Lions for the 4th time? NCAA, Tulsa (-4) @ Houston. High score favors the Golden Hurricane. NFL, Cowboys (-1) @ Redskins. It all hinges on Romo's performance. [2008 YTD 20-22-1.]

Poker, Where For Art Thou?

It's been a long time since we've talked, poker.

And I'm not going to give you the "It's not you, it's me" speech.

Because it's you.

Please hear me out, I have a lot to say.

You're not getting much good press these days. You just finished the WSOP main event, usually the biggest poker day of the year. And it went by with a whimper. I think that November nine thing was a dud.

I also had a hard time getting over the UB and AP cheating scandals. I'm waiting to see what 60 Minutes is going to say about that.

All you left me with were PokerStars and Full Tilt for safe playing options. Even these sites are rife with multi-accounting and poor game selection. Not to mention a banking mechanism that could collapse at any given moment for extended periods of time.

Online poker, my first love, you have turned into such a technology war with the data mining and odds calculators. It's becoming more apparent with each passing day it's harder and harder to find a fair game. If you ain't cheatin' (or angle shooting), you ain't tryin'.

All you've left me with is your bastard cousin, live poker. He charges an awful amount of rake and he doesn't live nearby. And you can forget about rakeback, rewards or overlays. What a bastard.

Now I'm finding out that you've pissed off the Bush administration enough that they are working on last minute regulations to kick you in the nuts.

Poker, I've given you a lot of time, money and love over the last five years. And up to last year, you had mostly returned the favor.

If you can't find a way to show your love, I'm going to have to let you go.

Yahtzee FTW? Uhhhh, No.

It has been an interesting couple of weeks on FSL.

I have been cold as ice (pun intended) in fantasy hockey. I did manage a winner last night, although I couldn't find much heads-up action.

I got swept in NASCAR (0 for 3). Again, I was doomed from the start when I finished last in the Nationwide portion. Jeff Gordon's engine failure cemented my last place finish in this week's chase.

I think I am still clinging to the overall lead in the chase, but it will be very close with one week to go.

I managed a nice bounce back Sunday, cashing in 24 of 43 for a +45.98% ROI. This is about a typical Sunday for me this football season.

So what's missing from all of this fantasy activity? Basketball? Yeah, I'm giving basketball the old heave-ho.

Why, you ask? Well, IMHO, FSL fantasy basketball has little or no skill advantage. I cannot find an edge in this game. It's just like rolling dice, really. In other words, it's a basketball version of Yahtzee.

A few random thoughts on fantasy hoops:

1) I'm not a big fan of the scoring system. There are only minus points for turnovers. Personal fouls and shooting accuracy (or free throw accuracy) are not considered.

2) The roster depth really hasn't changed the game that much. I played in a 6-man salary cap multi on Saturday where 4 users had the exact same roster. (I had one player different and finished 5th, behind a 4-way tie for 1st.) There were 6 games on the schedule that night.

Even though there are 9-man rosters, it's still coming down to 1 or 2 player contests way too often (in all cap formats).

3) Since I don't see an edge in this game, I feel it's -EV to play in the long term. I think the only strategy that would work is to vary your rosters across several multis (assuming a few rosters would cash and cover your buy-ins and generate a little profit). However, FSL really doesn't offer enough basketball multis for this method to work.

IMHO anyone playing this game HU against an average opponent would likely lose money over time to the rake.

Now I know I donated on the night I missed 'Melo's suspension, but I have tried several strategies in hoops and all have led me to the same conclusion. (FWIW, I've run bad in hockey too - but I still feel I have a huge edge there. Not to mention identical rosters almost never happen in hockey.)

As for what I would change about fantasy hoops? I'm not sure at this point, besides adding -1 or -2 for fouls. But there is no question that hoops (and baseball) have much less EV as compared to the other games.

I'll still play the $1 hoops for fun, 'cause it's all about the Washingtons, baby!

Pigskin Push

Football plays: CFL, Edmonton (+2.5) @ Winnipeg. Winnipeg has won last 3 at home, but 2 of those were the Ti-Cats. NCAA, Nevada @ Fresno St. (+2). Muddled WAC standings favor home teams. NFL, Chiefs (+15) @ Chargers. Strictly a cover play. [2008 YTD 18-21-1.]

Still Bleeding

Another down week so far. Like last week, Monday and Tuesday were a wash. Wednesday was another loser. Although I'm only down a little this week, this is a trend I hope to avoid in the future.

I've been playing hoops and hockey - there is far more traffic on the basketball side. While I am cashing regularly, I'm not cashing enough to turn a profit. As I gather more data, I'm fearing that basketball has the same volatility as baseball.

If this turns out to be the case, I'll only play hoops lightly, just a few multis each night.

[Case in point - playing a 10 player multi - I have 7 of 9 roster spots identical with the winner. Yet I finish 9th - with both of my unique players scoring well. Might as well be throwing dice.]

Hockey has been down again this week, although my goalies have been producing. The last two weeks have been great for the users who let their entire roster ride on one or two teams. While this is not a long term winning strategy, it's working for them.

I'm VERY disappointed that the hockey ranking cap pool is not managed like the football cap. I thought it was a mathematical model, but it is obvious that it's done arbitrarily. There are some players way overpriced and some way under priced. Like 50-100 points off.

Some football player values move 100 points week to week. Hockey still has top 5 goalies priced between 50-80 points, plus skaters on the IR over 110 points.

The only reason I'm bitching about this is that a change in the values will force users to draft differently. FSL is making it too easy for them right now.

Football picks tomorrow.

Bleeding To Death

After my record Sunday on the 26th, I am on a huge downswing.

I have recorded losses 6 of the last 7 days, including yesterday - my first loser in football this season.

It seemed everyone had lower scores this week. I did OK, cashing in 29 of 62 contests overall, but I performed worst in the 950 cap, which is the BFFB2 and SWDP area. No gains there for sure.

As the season progresses it is obvious to see that the rosters between users become similar, often making winning margins small.

I did manage a winning day in NASCAR contests. I finished 2nd in the Chase contest. The winner put up a score of 1000+, which is almost impossible to beat. I'm sure to be the overall leader there as I had about a 300+ point lead on the field.

I have stunk up the joint in hockey. I haven't won in a week, mostly because my goalies haven't won at all. On two separate nights my goalies lost their shootouts, which cost me a winning night both times.

All in all, I gave back about 75% of the winnings I made on that record Sunday. However, two things come to mind as I reflect on this:

1) I always take some profit after a big surge. I have learned this through many swings in poker and fantasy. Turning that digital balance into tangible cash is key to keeping a positive mind frame. Enjoying that "twice as sweet" money is important motivation to go get some more.

2) The downswings are, very slowly, getting easier to endure. It still sucks, but I know what happened and why it happened. I am not disillusioned, disgusted or depressed. I'm just a little poorer.

In retrospect, this is nothing compared to what I experienced with fantasy baseball. I worked my bankroll from $20 up to well into 4 figures, then back down below $100 again. So much variance. Football and hockey come nowhere near that.

I find basketball has that kind of variance too, although not as much. I'll play a little bit each day as I'm still searching for an edge.