The City Of Good Neighbors

Buffalo is known as "The city of good neighbors" (among other things). Although I'm not in Buffalo at the moment - I'm in the Finger Lakes - I still consider myself a WNYer.

What I love about Buffalo - that few cities have - is that it is a "small town" with big city amenities. No parking hassles. Great public transportation. NFL and NHL (sans championships, I know). Warm greetings almost everywhere I went. And a circle of friends that continues to grow, even though I don't reside downtown anymore.

Although I have never met Vinnay in person, I'm sure we have a few friends in common. Buffalo is just like that. When I heard about his friend Jeff - and his devastating loss - I decided to chip in a few bucks. I'm certainly not flush by any means, but every bit helps, right?

So I know a few other bloggers have already reported this, but go check out the site Help Jeff Out and see if you can do anything.

There's a benefit on 1/11 at the Old Pink, one of my former hangouts. If I can make it to B-lo that week, I'll be there with bells on.

Good luck, Jeff.

Holiday Goodies

I wanted to take a moment to thank my family for their kindness and share with you my haul over the long weekend:

Start off with the Old & New Testaments of poker, sure to make me less of a donkey:



I also got a tribute to Timmy Ho's, the real mugs (bilingual) are very hard to get here:



As the Coup de Grace, I got every beef & pork lover's dream:



Admit it, you are jealous. It works pretty good, too!

I also got an Amazon gift certificate, which I used to buy a new satellite radio, the coach's book and the movie that changed my view of life. You should see it sometime.

Now that fantasy football is over I should have a few poker related issues to discuss, along with a new fantasy site I found this weekend.

Football Finale

Last chance to pull out a winning year ATS.

Picks: NCAA, West Virginia (-2.5) vs. North Carolina. No love for ACC teams this bowl season. NFL, Patriots (-6) @ Bills. Will management eat the Jauron extension and get a new coach? [2008 YTD 27-28-1.]

Looks Like I Picked The Wrong Week To Stop.......

......winning.

I'm super busy this week, my family is sapping all of my time and energy. My focus needs to be on them right now.

I've had a lousy run since my last post, every day has been a loser except one, which was only a happy meal.

I haven't caught up my spreadsheets yet, but I think I was 2 for 21 on Sunday, 3 for 21 if you count the Pauly TOC. I have never seen such mail-it-in performances by as many teams, especially the Cardinals and Texans. Anyone who picked Matt Cassell to play in a snowstorm, I tip my hat to you. (And please play me as much as possible in the future.)

It looks like I will fall short in the BFFB, I'm actually pissed I even played it all the way through. Congratulations to Bonds, AlCantHang and Joe Speaker for their sheer dominance.

I have a lot to be thankful for this holiday season, not really the traditional stuff other people spout off about. I'm not religious or spiritual. I don't have any immediate family besides my siblings (and a parent). And I'm not particularly well off, although I haven't really been affected much by the current crises.

Most douche bags think appreciating what you have = lazy and unmotivated to get more. I think appreciating what you have = 50% of enlightenment. Think about it.

Happy holidays if you care about such things.

Jaded and Torn

I'm beginning to find my poker niche. I play short 30 minute sessions, usually twice a day. Results have been good.

However, this probably precludes me from getting anywhere near gold VIP. The grind of a multi-hour session wears you down quickly. I'm not feelin' it anymore these days.

I've had a great week playing fantasy hockey. Although I lost a happy meal last night, I've been winning big for the last week. I'm a big fish in a small pond at FSL.

Which brings me to the news that Snapdraft has launched fantasy hockey. I have not participated yet, because I'm torn. I want to be faithful to FSL for a variety of reasons - mainly because they have a better game. But the FSL player pool is small and it doesn't look like they are doing too much to grow it.

Snapdraft has a much higher rake, but they offer way more multi player games and assuming I can compete at the same level, I should be able to turn a profit.

I see Kaiseroll13 is playing snapdraft (look for Patrick K. on the leader board) so he obviously sees some value there as well.

Football picks: NCAAF, TCU vs. Boise St. (+2.5). Broncos are ALWAYS prepared. NFL, Cardinals (+9) @ Patriots. Strictly a cover play. [2008 YTD 26-27-1. Thanks, Jeff Fisher.]

Sometimes Value Is Better Than Value Added.

I've been reading the interesting tweets (twits?) on the bloggers meeting in Vegas. Jealous still, I am.

However, a nice consolation prize for being stuck in the frozen tundra of upstate NY was my weekend of poker and fantasy sports.

I signed up for a couple dozen football contests. Even with poor performances from Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald, I managed to cash in most of them. I picked the Jets defense, knowing full well that J.P. Losman was good for a pick and a fumble. He waited until the last two minutes, but he delivered.

I won two of the three "winner take all" contests I entered. I would rather play the traditional structure, but it sure was a boost to the ROI.

I won my BFFB and SWDP contests. I'll have to wait and see if I managed to sneak into the BFFB TOC. Maybe winning outright is better than trying to win the bonus cash.

I also swept all of my hockey contests. Overall, I was 24 for 30 with an ROI of +137.32%.

Poker ran really well this week. I'm about 30bb away from fully recovering from my -200bb+ downswing. I'm a few days behind my schedule of play in order to make gold VIP for December. When you're winning it all seems so easy. I try not to take it for granted.

A pretty good weekend for the home team.

Solo Shot

As predicted, I was straddling a snow blower today.

Pick: NFL, Titans (-3) @ Texans. Another trap game, could be a "rest my studs" situation. [2008 YTD 26-26-1.]

It's Thursday.

I don't really have much to say, just wanted to get the last post pushed down a bit.

I'm still frustrated that the skills that make me a winning fantasy player don't help one bit in the promo contests. LOL donkaments, I guess.

The last two nights of fantasy hockey were losers, going 0 for 7, then 1 for 14. The one contest I did win was a $54 HU, thank goodness.

Poker has been kind of flat this week, not really up or down. Just want to make gold VIP for December.

I managed to win both my football picks last week. Now I'm .500 on the year. Three weeks left to salvage a winning year.

Picks tomorrow.

I Need A Day Off From The World

Although I've been feeling much better, it's the stresses of life that seem to consume me lately.

I played a decent session of LO8 yesterday and was thoroughly trounced. Only showed down about 35% winners, which is atrocious in split-pot poker. I know a portion of it was pure bad luck. My top boat lost to quads four times (and three times the one outer came on the river).

I was all set to write a post on my poker stats, but I accidentally deleted them while playing. Oops. I'll ask Stars for the HH at the end of the month.

I had a mild schedule of fantasy football, only 11 contests. I only played no cap and 950pt cap. I put up a decent score (and as usual) fell just short of BFFB top score. I've scored in 12 of the 14 weeks so far, but since I never had the top score in a given week, the TOC will probably be held without me.

So much for consistency being rewarded.

I also played 4 hockey contests and whiffed in all of them. Overall, I was 6 for 15 on the day across all sports. Thanks to winning a few multis, my ROI was +40.47%.

I am not in the holiday spirit. I'm having winter blues right now. It was +1 degree (Fahrenheit, ldo) this morning. While most bloggers will be straddling blinds in Vegas, I'll be straddling a snow blower. Bah humbug.

More Thoughts On Rake

Fantasy hockey continues to be good to me. Every day but one is a winner in December.

My downswing in poker descended to -200bb. Yikes. However, I've risen from the ashes to claim +100bb back. Today was a wash, ending right where I started. (So I guess I beat the rake, huh?)

Whenever I get the thirst for some poker knowledge, I like to hit the books in my poker library, starting with the oldest first, because the older books are usually the most basic in concepts, which allows me to deconstruct my game and rebuild.

I plowed into one of my favorites, Scarne's NEW Complete Guide To Gambling (All new for 1974! It's also a great read for learning how to beat those games at the state fair midway.)

Anyway, reading Scarne's passage on raked poker is pretty clear cut:

"Even the world's best poker player, playing against rank suckers, would eventually go broke bucking that 5% cut..."

I wonder what Scarne would think of online poker if he were alive today. Yes, his assessment is correct, under two assumptions:

1) The rake is not capped (meaning that it's 5% of the pot, no matter how big).
2) You have to play long sessions of poker. Most people don't play one orbit of live poker, unless they are moving to another game in the same room.

The first thing I decided to change after my big downswing was to play only one table of online poker. I realize that is too boring for some folks, but I also quickly learned I paid more attention and made better decisions.

My second change involved leaving the table (ending the session) as soon as I finished any orbit with a profit. In other words, I left if I was up, even if it was after 2 hands. I also left the table after 30 minutes regardless of profit.

While this sounds like boring, basic "hit & run" poker, it's really not. While struggling with the rake as a low level VIP, I have to manage the hands I play very carefully. When I am getting decent rakeback for my play I can consider multi-tabling again.

It will be interesting to see if I can make gold VIP playing only one table during a session. If I continue to climb, I'll move up in stakes instead of adding tables.

Now it's time to work on those fantasy football picks.

Football Forecast

NCAA, USC @ UCLA (+32). Strictly a cover play. NFL, Dolphins (+1) @ Buffalo. J.P. Losman will not get it done in Toronto. [2008 YTD 24-26-1.]

WBCOOP (Lightweight Division)

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

This PokerStars tournament is a No Limit Texas Hold’em event exclusive to Bloggers.

Registration code: 078098

Poker? One Simple Question.

Last night I lost a little playing fantasy hockey. A meaningless goal by Niklas Hagman with 50 seconds left cost me a winner. Such is life.

I have been playing poker with a new found passion. Unfortunately, after achieving all of my November goals, I have been on pretty large downswing, about -150bb.

The last two sessions have left me frazzled and a little paranoid, wondering if I was the victim of some team play.

Regardless, I realize I'm getting eaten alive by the rake. On Stars, there is a VIP reward system which allows you to exchange your points for rakeback. At gold star level each VPP earned is worth 2 cents. With the average pot at my stakes collecting about .25 in rake, that's not even 10% rakeback. I'm sure there is another way of analyzing this but I haven't found one that makes it sound any better.

I realize my downswing is only a short term view, but looking down the road, I wonder if this is a winning proposition under any circumstances.

So poker comes down to one simple question: Can you beat the rake?

For me to find out, I may have to dig into my pockets a little deeper.

(This exact question if the reason I've stayed away from the $3/6 LO8 at Turning Stone. BTW, if you were to substitute FSL for poker, the answer to this question is YES!)

Meh.

Well, November is over and I failed in my quest for a winning month.

I've had 3 losing Sundays all football season, and all three came in November.

I cashed in 8 of 40 contests on Sunday. I was pretty much toast when Peyton Manning put up an awe-inspiring 0.8 fantasy points. I just stopped paying attention after that game ended.

For the month of November, I finished 238 for 557 (42.73%), with an ROI of -5.43%. Nothing too earth shattering.

While I have 3 losing Sundays out of my last 5, I'm way up for the football season. I kind of knew I wouldn't be able to keep that pace up all season long.

If I didn't have such a lousy beginning to the hockey season, I might have won enough to cover my football losses.

I have two observations about football as we head into the twilight of the season:

1) As the season progresses the rosters get an overall similarity between opponents. As people see the same games and review the same information & analysis, it's only common to see similar picks.

Which brings me to:

2) Is it a viable strategy to shake up your picks and vary your rosters across the board? I know others disagree with with me, but I say a resounding "NO".

Widely varying your rosters is a sure fire method to lose money over time. While you are probably guaranteed to win a few, you will never win them all. You are "playing not to lose" instead of "playing to win".

If you practice good bankroll management and can withstand a big losing day, then there is nothing wrong with taking your best guess to score points and playing that roster across the board.

If you follow my picks, you notice I never change my rosters much (if at all). I will tell you Kaiseroll13 does the same. If the top two overall players at FSL use this strategy, you would think there is something to it. Just food for thought.