Running Bad III: The One With Clubber Lang

As I finish up the rather ugly month of January, I'm still looking for the holes in my game. I seem to have flattened out the losses but haven't made much back.

I switched to PLO8 for the last week of the month, mostly because I could short stack and still get the VPP's needed to make my VIP level. Now I have some all-ins to gauge my "luck" this month.

There was an interesting thread on 2+2 this week about rake in LO8. One poster seems to think that you need 5 opponents in a hand to beat the uncapped 5% rake in low limit O8. It's something to consider, I really feel the rake & running bad killed me in equal parts there.

I'll probably play one more session this month, but here's all the data:



Still running bad, but no longer "lucky" (Sklansky bucks rise above showdown winnings).

Here's the all-ins, I'm losing most of my races:



Again here's a scatter graph, showing a majority of +EV hands:



From another view, the histogram:



This means I'm not just losing big pots and winning small ones. I'm playing +EV across all pot sizes.

I've been replaying some individual hands, and I haven't seen any earth shattering misplays. There have been one or two hands where I was drawing to a scoop multiple ways, yet I earned negative Sklansky on the hand. Maybe I'll post those hands later on.

More Thoughts On Running Bad

I've posted some solid winning sessions, but I'm in a huge hole for 2008 (so far). Looking for leaks, I've come to the following conclusions:

1) Nobody folds...... but me. I'm playing low limit LO8, with 3-6+ players seeing flops. Even when I flop the nuts, nobody folds. Players are chasing half the pot (low) or drawing super slim (i.e. holding a smaller boat and catching quads). Sounds like a great situation to have, amirite?

2) I'm getting sucked out on much more than I suck out. This is pretty obvious, since I'm quick to fold any hand where I'm behind.

Once again, I'm just playing strong hands, jamming on scooping hands and trying to show down winners. I've continued to load up on Sklansky bucks and I have been +EV more often than not on every street.

So I'm not quite sure how to fight the schooling effect of the chasing fish, but I've come to embrace it a bit more, even during this slump. Any ideas?

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Quick thought on playing LO8 tourneys: Since there is no rake at the table during a tourney, you should jam any (non-straight) nut high. You want to accumulate chips and quarter the low at EVERY opportunity. Your chances of splitting the high pot on a boat is VERY slim and impossible on a flush, straight flush or quads.

Yes, you want to scoop, but chopping can get you somewhere when trying to build a stack.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Super Bowl Pick: Giants (+13) vs. Patriots. A lot of posturing can happen between now and February 3rd, but simply put: NY is 5-0 ATS in their last five; NE is 0-5 ATS in their last 5. If this line increases, pounce on it. [2008 YTD 1-1.]

Inevitable: Death, Taxes, Downswing

I never learn.

Anytime I blog about running good I am smacked in the junk by variance. It's just not any easier to deal with, even though it happens again and again.

Now I'm a micro stakes grinder wannabe, just trying to play the best poker that I have inside me. You have to constantly learn, adapt, and overcome, just like Gunny Highway .

But as I review my play, I'm really having trouble finding leaks. So comments and advice are welcome here. Remember, this is LO8 I'm playing.

Without further delay, it's chart time!

Here's my PokerEV chart:



As you can see, I'm loaded in Sklansky bucks. I'm almost always getting in with the best of it. And because the showdown (blue) line is way above the red and green lines, I'm "lucky" to be only down 150 bb. This doesn't make any sense to me at all.

Also from PokerEV, the scatter graph:



The hands in the 2 right quadrants are +Sklansky bucks, and the hands in the 2 left quadrants are -EV plays. The upper left hand quadrant are hands I must have won on a suck out, while the lower left quadrant are my donk plays. Based on the number of dots on the right half, it is clear that I'm putting myself in +EV situations most of the time.

So do I just run super bad? Am I getting eaten up by the rake waiting for the nuts? Or does this indicate an obvious leak I'm just not seeing? I'm stumped.

I'm trying to keep the faith, just looking for good situations to put my chips in. But I might have to reload for the first time in a VERY long time online. That has me worried there is something else going on here.

Football Pick: Giants (+8) @ Packers. Again a cover play, the G-men have a much better run defense that Seattle. (BTW the line on the Pats hasn't moved all week, meaning bookies think NE cover is more than likely.) [2008 YTD 0-1]

Poker, You Are My Dirty Mistress Once Again

With almost no fantasy hockey options and no viable options to deposit/withdraw from online sports books, poker has once again become my main diversion/Internet time killer.

What's interesting is how different my view of poker has become (as compared to last year). At this time last year I was on a tournament tear, especially in razz events. Now I'm a strictly cash game player. Tournaments are the highest variance form of poker and I've experienced both ends of that spectrum. I still steam after lasting 3.5 hours of solid play and getting knocked out on a donk beat.

Don't even get me started on blogger donkaments, they're extremely -EV. Why would I participate in a tourney where the only sure result is to get my play criticized in at least 7 different blogs?

While you do get the most bang for your in tournaments, cash games are where it's at. You earn rake back at a much faster rate and you are rewarded for your time, even if you have a losing session. Since I am spending most of my time on Stars, there are multiple tables waiting for me almost anytime I want to play.

To sum it all up, I guess I'm happier to be under the radar than on the radar. It's just easier to make your nut that way.

As an added bonus, I had this happen to me recently as I approached 50k O8 hands on Stars:



While I have my own set of PTO definitions and have been a +1 ptbb/100 player, I really wanted "good player" status. Call me "moneybags66", at least for a little while.

REAL ID = Real Threat To Our Freedom

Homeland Security announced today that it is moving forward with REAL ID, a national ID compliance program between the states. The only good news to come out of this announcement is that the compliance dates have been moved back.

Essentially, if you were born after December 1, 1964, you must have a REAL ID compliant drivers license by 2014. All US citizens must have a compliant REAL ID by 2017. Let me repeat that - ALL US CITIZENS MUST HAVE A COMPLIANT REAL ID by 2017.

They were originally planning to put RFID into the actual ID's, but backed off that when privacy advocates got upset. It doesn't matter really - you'll be required to show your ID at almost every activity anyway. Going to school, checking out at the grocery store, entering a library, any mundane task - your ID will be scanned, you will be tracked, all in the name of fighting terrorism.

Once the REAL ID is in place nationwide, it will be crime not to have one, or not having one when requested by authorities.

Do you REALLY want to live in a country that would allow this to happen? I don't. I never ever thought I'd consider seeking political asylum from the USA.

Football Pick: Seahawks (+8) @ Packers. A cover play, but extreme weather (hot or cold) will make the game close. [2008 YTD 0-0. Since Blog Inception 49-38-2.]

2008 So Far: Directionless & Disappointing

I took an "unplugged" vacation for the 1st week of January. Met up with some friends, lived up the night life for a few days. I didn't get to play any live poker in the Falls. Boo.

So I come back to Prison City to find out that FantasySportsLive has canned their fantasy hockey. Again, Boo. FSL was having scoring issues with their automated feed and manually scoring is too much work. Way to build market share, guys. Apparently you don't want my play.

I wrote a business plan for a daily fantasy site back in 2006. But I didn't have the connections of a Dr. Pauly or Maroon to get the VC needed for launch. And I knew being first to market was crucial to shaping the industry (and the future potential to sell off to a big player like Yahoo or ESPN).

In my business plan I addressed the very issues these sites are having. It's disappointing seeing my predictions come true. Three times, Boo.

----------------------------------------------------------------

So I'm ready to get started on some new projects, but which area do I attack? I need to decide on my poker goals this week. Stars is the only place I can play this year, based on traffic and rewards. So if I don't start right away I'll be a month behind on Supernova status.

I'm still trying to put poker classes together here in upstate NY and I have a lead on a few venues.

I have decided to write a book on sports betting strategies including fantasy sports. I expect the book to be roughly finished in a month or so, and I'm investigating different publishing avenues. At least that is one area where I have some connections.