I'm finally rebounding from a difficult weekend. Fantasy NASCAR was a fiasco for me last week and again it started out the same. As they tried to get the race in during a rain storm, the results were not looking favorable.
It turns out the delay was just what the doctor ordered. Resuming the next day, the favorites shined and I cashed in on 12 of 13 contests. If not for Denny Hamlin crashing in the rain or Clint Bowyer's bad (Nationwide) pit stop, I would have swept. In fact, I had my highest score on my only loser (1023-1015).
Fantasy hockey was also rough over the weekend winning only 3 of 14. I was screwed on starting goalies twice, when Bryzgalov sat Friday and Giguere sat Sunday. Neither were back-to-back games and both goalies were coming off wins. I think I'm most upset that my intel did not provide an accurate heads up on the situation.
Last night I was back on my game, winning 8 of 9 contests. Again, my only loss was a high score (123-117). One of my defensemen was a healthy scratch, even though he is rated as the #1 D for his team. Grrrrr.
I seem to crush on the weekdays but slip somewhat on the weekends. It will be nice to finish up the month a winner and keep my perfect streak alive.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I played poker this past week and it has been far more frustrating than fantasy sports. I bubbled 3 times in MTT's and actually played very well. However, it took me 10 tourneys just to make a cash.
I've started playing the 18 man NLO8 SNG's on Stars. Boy, is the play bad. It took me 5 tries to finally take one down, but the bad beats left me so tilty I had to shut off the PC. I'll definitely spend more time on these.
I am still struggling with my winning vs. my expectation of winning. When the competition is soft, I expect to win. I need to learn how to disconnect the results. Any ideas?
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Not A Fast Start
February has been a see-saw affair. Alternating winning and losing days with fantasy sports.
I have been winning hockey contests overall, but again I'm finding the action slowing down. I'll have a big winner and my opponents don't come back for awhile.
Sunday was my worst day of 2008. I went 1 for 8 in hockey - well, that happens from time to time. No biggie. However, I went 7 for 17 in NASCAR and I blame some of that on a change in the rules - more specifically how the rules are interpreted.
I took a risk on qualifying and got burned on Patrick Carpentier. I also got burned on Jeff Gordon, who only completed about 150 laps. However, many of my opponents picked racers who failed to qualify or racers who didn't even attempt to qualify. According to my understanding of the scoring, these racers should have received a -50 score.
The site I use gave these racers a zero score, citing a rule in the TOS that states in part: "Any member of a roster that does not participate will receive no points". I was told zero points is considered enough of a penalty and they are still on a "learning curve" with NASCAR contests.
So basically, I choose Jeff Gordon and get -50 points, my opponents choose Ricky Rudd (retired) or Kurt Busch for Nationwide (he doesn't even race in that series) and get zero points.
I figured that ruling cost me 3 wins. Maybe that's sour grapes but I don't like it when stupidity is rewarded.
I'm really looking forward to baseball starting in five weeks. There will be plenty of action and no learning curve.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
I played two poker tournaments this weekend, without a cash. I finished 12th in one when my AA lost to 77 in a race: He caught a runner-runner flush with 4 clubs on the board. C'est la vie, just keep putting yourself in good situations.
There was some interesting gossip started by David Sklansky in the 2+2 NVG forum. He's claiming a lot of name pros are busto, although not naming names. He claims some of the players who took on Andy Beal are included. That's a short list: Ted Forrest, Jen Harman, Phil Ivey, Todd Brunson and perhaps a couple others.
Without getting into the specifics, the OP boiled down to this: Some of these name pros are just above average players who were in the right place at the right time and became well known just as the poker boom exploded. They were able to capitalize on that phenomenon but perhaps the well has now run dry (hold 'em)... or perhaps the level of competition has improved immensely.
One theme that has emerged: Players are migrating to other games, specifically Omaha.
I have been winning hockey contests overall, but again I'm finding the action slowing down. I'll have a big winner and my opponents don't come back for awhile.
Sunday was my worst day of 2008. I went 1 for 8 in hockey - well, that happens from time to time. No biggie. However, I went 7 for 17 in NASCAR and I blame some of that on a change in the rules - more specifically how the rules are interpreted.
I took a risk on qualifying and got burned on Patrick Carpentier. I also got burned on Jeff Gordon, who only completed about 150 laps. However, many of my opponents picked racers who failed to qualify or racers who didn't even attempt to qualify. According to my understanding of the scoring, these racers should have received a -50 score.
The site I use gave these racers a zero score, citing a rule in the TOS that states in part: "Any member of a roster that does not participate will receive no points". I was told zero points is considered enough of a penalty and they are still on a "learning curve" with NASCAR contests.
So basically, I choose Jeff Gordon and get -50 points, my opponents choose Ricky Rudd (retired) or Kurt Busch for Nationwide (he doesn't even race in that series) and get zero points.
I figured that ruling cost me 3 wins. Maybe that's sour grapes but I don't like it when stupidity is rewarded.
I'm really looking forward to baseball starting in five weeks. There will be plenty of action and no learning curve.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
I played two poker tournaments this weekend, without a cash. I finished 12th in one when my AA lost to 77 in a race: He caught a runner-runner flush with 4 clubs on the board. C'est la vie, just keep putting yourself in good situations.
There was some interesting gossip started by David Sklansky in the 2+2 NVG forum. He's claiming a lot of name pros are busto, although not naming names. He claims some of the players who took on Andy Beal are included. That's a short list: Ted Forrest, Jen Harman, Phil Ivey, Todd Brunson and perhaps a couple others.
Without getting into the specifics, the OP boiled down to this: Some of these name pros are just above average players who were in the right place at the right time and became well known just as the poker boom exploded. They were able to capitalize on that phenomenon but perhaps the well has now run dry (hold 'em)... or perhaps the level of competition has improved immensely.
One theme that has emerged: Players are migrating to other games, specifically Omaha.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Uber Lame Weekly Update Post
Not too much going on since my last post.
I haven't has too much desire to play poker. I wanted to play last night but somehow the PokerStars tourneys & SNG's were offline. I did play this afternoon and scored a 2nd place finish. 44 lost to A8 on the final hand. We played about 20 minutes heads-up with turbo levels.
It seemed that overcards always killed pocket pairs in this one. I only had one suckout, when my A6 s00ted beat A9o with 7 players left.
I watched the Daytona Duels yesterday and Patrick Carpentier blew a tire with 2 laps left, so there goes the notion of any sweep. He'll earn me -50 for failing to qualify. Brian Vickers came back from a spin to make the race, but he didn't earn me any points.
I listened to the scanner, which is free on the NASCAR web site this weekend. You get so much more info as to what is going on with the cars. While I wouldn't pay for this service, it definitely enhances the broadcast coverage.
I still like my chances to win most of my NASCAR contests this weekend.
My first day back playing fantasy hockey, I won 8 of 8 contests with a sweet 102% ROI. I have cooled down just a bit, but I'm winning over 70% of my contests going into tonight. With the NBA on break, I hope I'll get more action than usual.
I haven't has too much desire to play poker. I wanted to play last night but somehow the PokerStars tourneys & SNG's were offline. I did play this afternoon and scored a 2nd place finish. 44 lost to A8 on the final hand. We played about 20 minutes heads-up with turbo levels.
It seemed that overcards always killed pocket pairs in this one. I only had one suckout, when my A6 s00ted beat A9o with 7 players left.
I watched the Daytona Duels yesterday and Patrick Carpentier blew a tire with 2 laps left, so there goes the notion of any sweep. He'll earn me -50 for failing to qualify. Brian Vickers came back from a spin to make the race, but he didn't earn me any points.
I listened to the scanner, which is free on the NASCAR web site this weekend. You get so much more info as to what is going on with the cars. While I wouldn't pay for this service, it definitely enhances the broadcast coverage.
I still like my chances to win most of my NASCAR contests this weekend.
My first day back playing fantasy hockey, I won 8 of 8 contests with a sweet 102% ROI. I have cooled down just a bit, but I'm winning over 70% of my contests going into tonight. With the NBA on break, I hope I'll get more action than usual.
Monday, February 11, 2008
The Anti-Secret & Fantasy Realities
Oprah had a show on "The Secret" last week. If girls could have boners, Oprah + "The Secret" would give most of them raging wood. My sister Pog was certainly excited, among others.
"The Secret" doesn't work for me. I tried it. I immersed myself into the "be open to the universe" culture. Without going into much detail, "The Secret" left me poorer, unfullfilled and more depressed than when I first discovered it.
"The Secret" is a sham. If there is any balance in the universe, for every attraction you create, you are taking that attraction away from someone else who may need that attraction MUCH more than you. They just don't realize it.
Where is this going? I have discovered that the Anti-Secret works much better. For me. Especially when I play poker.
After deciding to stop grinding, I've only been playing poker when the mood strikes me. Now playing just for the sake of playing, the results have been very good:
(Ignore the $3 average buy-in.) I've actually bubbled twice in these, which means I'm making the final table 57% of the time. Whether this is donkament variance or some actual skill showing, I don't care.
The point is, I play just to play. The results really do not matter - a win or a loss doesn't affect my life significantly either way. This is the Anti-Secret. You might call it by another name, but I'll still take it.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Fantasy hockey and NASCAR has made a timely return into my life. I can now grind the fantasy games consistently until baseball starts.
I took a few chances on the Daytona qualifying, I forgot that 3 of the 6 GOGH spots were clinched there. So I'm stuck hoping that Patrick Carpentier and Brian Vickers can race their way in during the Duels. If they don't miss the race, I'll be looking good for a sweep this week.
Let's see if I can shake the rust off my hockey jones. I think the looming trade deadline should shake things up a bit.
At any rate, it feels good to be the crusher instead of the crushee. That's no secret.
"The Secret" doesn't work for me. I tried it. I immersed myself into the "be open to the universe" culture. Without going into much detail, "The Secret" left me poorer, unfullfilled and more depressed than when I first discovered it.
"The Secret" is a sham. If there is any balance in the universe, for every attraction you create, you are taking that attraction away from someone else who may need that attraction MUCH more than you. They just don't realize it.
Where is this going? I have discovered that the Anti-Secret works much better. For me. Especially when I play poker.
After deciding to stop grinding, I've only been playing poker when the mood strikes me. Now playing just for the sake of playing, the results have been very good:
(Ignore the $3 average buy-in.) I've actually bubbled twice in these, which means I'm making the final table 57% of the time. Whether this is donkament variance or some actual skill showing, I don't care.
The point is, I play just to play. The results really do not matter - a win or a loss doesn't affect my life significantly either way. This is the Anti-Secret. You might call it by another name, but I'll still take it.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Fantasy hockey and NASCAR has made a timely return into my life. I can now grind the fantasy games consistently until baseball starts.
I took a few chances on the Daytona qualifying, I forgot that 3 of the 6 GOGH spots were clinched there. So I'm stuck hoping that Patrick Carpentier and Brian Vickers can race their way in during the Duels. If they don't miss the race, I'll be looking good for a sweep this week.
Let's see if I can shake the rust off my hockey jones. I think the looming trade deadline should shake things up a bit.
At any rate, it feels good to be the crusher instead of the crushee. That's no secret.
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Grinding To A Halt
My horoscope for today:
A little eerie, methinks.
I've been playing O8/PLO8 regularly all year with horrible results. I'm not winning, even though I started out the year as a winner.
The 2+2ers concur that if you're a consistent loser over 1k hands, you're a bad player and it's not just variance. Well, I've been losing now over 11k hands, which brings me to the following conclusions:
-If I am leaking, I have no idea what it is. I obviously can't see it objectively.
-PokerEV must be the biggest piece of shit software on the market, because it says I'm a good player, putting myself in +EV situations well over 75% of the time (when VPIP). This means I made the right decision 3 out of every 4 times over 12.5k hands this year.
-I can't get anybody to fold at the tables. This is a combination of the low stakes and being under-rolled at PLO8 (due to my losing streak).
-I'm also fighting uncapped 5% rake at the tables. My losses for the year are much less than what I've paid in rake. This means in a rake free game, I'm a winning player. With actual rakeback, I'd be much better off.
But the ultimate point - Yes, I'm going to say it... I'm a losing player. Period. I admit it wholeheartedly.
So I'm going to give up the grind of cash games. Whatever skill I've accrued in the last 5+ years is being overcome by other forces I just can't combat. Goodbye, any notion of supernova VIP.
I'm not going to give up poker. I've decided to play a very casual amount of tournaments. I have no expectation of running up big scores, but I'm certainly not dead money.
This is what "Action" Dan Harrington had to say about tournaments in a recent interview:
This guy is one of the best tourney players ever.
Fantasy hockey is supposed to start again up next week along with NASCAR. That should tide me over until baseball season starts. I DO have an expectation of winning there, based on my past performance.
I hate walking away from ambitious goals I set for myself. I hate being results oriented. But you cannot turn away from what stares at you in the face every day.
A new understanding of yourself will lead you to instigate a set of major changes. You can sense this. You may even feel a little afraid of what it implies. Don't be. What's altering now is necessary. It's the start of a great new phase of your life.
A little eerie, methinks.
I've been playing O8/PLO8 regularly all year with horrible results. I'm not winning, even though I started out the year as a winner.
The 2+2ers concur that if you're a consistent loser over 1k hands, you're a bad player and it's not just variance. Well, I've been losing now over 11k hands, which brings me to the following conclusions:
-If I am leaking, I have no idea what it is. I obviously can't see it objectively.
-PokerEV must be the biggest piece of shit software on the market, because it says I'm a good player, putting myself in +EV situations well over 75% of the time (when VPIP). This means I made the right decision 3 out of every 4 times over 12.5k hands this year.
-I can't get anybody to fold at the tables. This is a combination of the low stakes and being under-rolled at PLO8 (due to my losing streak).
-I'm also fighting uncapped 5% rake at the tables. My losses for the year are much less than what I've paid in rake. This means in a rake free game, I'm a winning player. With actual rakeback, I'd be much better off.
But the ultimate point - Yes, I'm going to say it... I'm a losing player. Period. I admit it wholeheartedly.
So I'm going to give up the grind of cash games. Whatever skill I've accrued in the last 5+ years is being overcome by other forces I just can't combat. Goodbye, any notion of supernova VIP.
I'm not going to give up poker. I've decided to play a very casual amount of tournaments. I have no expectation of running up big scores, but I'm certainly not dead money.
This is what "Action" Dan Harrington had to say about tournaments in a recent interview:
Tournaments are a different creature. The volatility in tournaments is out of sight. I don't think you can consider playing tournaments for a living. I think that is impossible.
Even if you are a world-class player, the expenses are too high. My expenses are about $180,000 a year for about 10 events a year, and I play a third of the events that my compatriots play. If you're going to play poker and focus on tournaments, you better be wealthy, and if you're wealthy, why are you playing poker tournaments? Sure, you see some names repeating as winners. They are truly great players. But the problem is, there are a lot of other truely great players you haven't seen at all. And it's not because they are playing badly. It's the variance. You need to be extremely lucky. I'm one of the more successful tournament players, and I feel like I do nothing but lose!
The reality in poker is that only one or two in every 100 players will make any real money at it.
(from cardplayer magazine Vol.20c/No. 24c December 5, 2007 Issue)
This guy is one of the best tourney players ever.
Fantasy hockey is supposed to start again up next week along with NASCAR. That should tide me over until baseball season starts. I DO have an expectation of winning there, based on my past performance.
I hate walking away from ambitious goals I set for myself. I hate being results oriented. But you cannot turn away from what stares at you in the face every day.
Monday, February 04, 2008
The Big Favorites Don't Always Win....
Just ask the Patriots.
I bubbled in 3 MTT's this weekend. Always went out as a favorite, getting the money in with the better hand. Although this was not a bubble, this is about as big a favorite as you can get. Another 1 outer*:
PokerStars Game #15014793006: Tournament #76096563, $3.00+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/02/02 - 18:48:51 (ET)
Table '76096563 3' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Echo69 (5300 in chips)
Seat 2: pauly001 (3560 in chips)
Seat 3: doorman1948 (3055 in chips)
Seat 4: abboy48 (1740 in chips)
Seat 5: 66Buffalo66 (985 in chips)
Seat 6: MKili (1655 in chips)
Seat 7: capnnevs (1325 in chips)
Seat 9: charnick (13580 in chips)
charnick: posts small blind 100
Echo69: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 66Buffalo66 [Ac Ah]
pauly001: folds
doorman1948: folds
abboy48: folds
66Buffalo66: raises 785 to 985 and is all-in
MKili: folds
capnnevs: raises 340 to 1325 and is all-in
charnick: folds
Echo69: folds
*** FLOP *** [Th 5h Kh]
*** TURN *** [Th 5h Kh] [Qc]
*** RIVER *** [Th 5h Kh Qc] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
66Buffalo66: shows [Ac Ah] (a pair of Aces)
capnnevs: shows [7c 7s] (three of a kind, Sevens)
66Buffalo66 said, "sick"
capnnevs collected 2270 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2270 | Rake 0
Board [Th 5h Kh Qc 7d]
Seat 1: Echo69 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: pauly001 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: doorman1948 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: abboy48 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: 66Buffalo66 showed [Ac Ah] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: MKili folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: capnnevs (button) showed [7c 7s] and won (2270) with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 9: charnick (small blind) folded before Flop
My faith has been shaken this year. I'm playing good poker with bad results. It's difficult not to be results oriented when you run bad for weeks, which are now turning into months.
(*I don't have to pay a fee to post bad beats because nobody reads this blog anyway.)
I bubbled in 3 MTT's this weekend. Always went out as a favorite, getting the money in with the better hand. Although this was not a bubble, this is about as big a favorite as you can get. Another 1 outer*:
PokerStars Game #15014793006: Tournament #76096563, $3.00+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2008/02/02 - 18:48:51 (ET)
Table '76096563 3' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Echo69 (5300 in chips)
Seat 2: pauly001 (3560 in chips)
Seat 3: doorman1948 (3055 in chips)
Seat 4: abboy48 (1740 in chips)
Seat 5: 66Buffalo66 (985 in chips)
Seat 6: MKili (1655 in chips)
Seat 7: capnnevs (1325 in chips)
Seat 9: charnick (13580 in chips)
charnick: posts small blind 100
Echo69: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 66Buffalo66 [Ac Ah]
pauly001: folds
doorman1948: folds
abboy48: folds
66Buffalo66: raises 785 to 985 and is all-in
MKili: folds
capnnevs: raises 340 to 1325 and is all-in
charnick: folds
Echo69: folds
*** FLOP *** [Th 5h Kh]
*** TURN *** [Th 5h Kh] [Qc]
*** RIVER *** [Th 5h Kh Qc] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
66Buffalo66: shows [Ac Ah] (a pair of Aces)
capnnevs: shows [7c 7s] (three of a kind, Sevens)
66Buffalo66 said, "sick"
capnnevs collected 2270 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2270 | Rake 0
Board [Th 5h Kh Qc 7d]
Seat 1: Echo69 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: pauly001 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: doorman1948 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: abboy48 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: 66Buffalo66 showed [Ac Ah] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: MKili folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: capnnevs (button) showed [7c 7s] and won (2270) with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 9: charnick (small blind) folded before Flop
My faith has been shaken this year. I'm playing good poker with bad results. It's difficult not to be results oriented when you run bad for weeks, which are now turning into months.
(*I don't have to pay a fee to post bad beats because nobody reads this blog anyway.)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)