I received a couple of interesting comments about ROI, which leads me to the following points:
The reason I started discussing ROI was to give an idea of reasonable expectations. In other words, what a winning fantasy player can expect to earn.
There are huge differences in ROI between HU games and multis.
A HU grinder winning 58% of 300 contests - which is a very good month - would have an ROI of +5.4%, assuming all of the contests were at the same buy-in (e.g. $11 entry/$20 prize).
Interestingly, this is almost exactly my lifetime ROI.
A multi contest player, cashing 40% of the time in 120 contests, would have an ROI of +21.21%, assuming all buy-ins were the same and player cashed equally between 1st/2nd/3rd (e.g. $11 entry/$50-30-20 prizes).
Now it is possible to run better than that in multis, but I think that is an average representation of what a winning month would be. YMMV.
You can obviously see why the above average fantasy player prefers multis. Simply put, there is likely dead money in any multi.
Now, Blinders argues that the rake in a multi is higher than the rake in a nosebleed HU. This is true. However, that doesn't really help your ROI too much:
Playing $213 HU games, winning 58% (the same as the $11 example), would be an ROI of +8.92%. While the ROI is much better - due to reduced rake - it's nowhere near the ROI of a multi.
Now playing $213 HU and winning only 55% (which I would consider a BEST CASE SCENARIO) brings an ROI of +3.28%. The better competition would lower your win rate and lower your return.
Blinders did have one thing right: If I had 100% reinvested my bankroll constantly over the last three years, I would be balling in the nosebleeds. However, I've spent a lot of my winnings over that time. I paid off a few bills and bought a few toys.
I'm a firm believer in enjoying the fruits of your labor.
To bring this completely full circle: You can see if I pumped all of my winnings back into the bankroll, I would be "balling" after about 3 years. This is why I said the Draftbug Millionaire would take 3-4 years.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
Lessons In ROI
I started this post once already and it turned into a long rambling math-fest. I put away the slide rule and I'm going to try and put all of the relevant points below:
My lifetime ROI is NOT my return on what I deposited on the fantasy sites; it's the return on the TOTAL entry fees I've paid on all the contests entered.
If you only play HU (heads-up) contests, your ROI will never reach +100% because of the rake. Example: Play ten HU at $11 each, win them all ($200). Your ROI is +81.81%.
You need to win over 54% of your HU contests to be profitable, again because of the rake.
If you play multis (multi-player contests), You can achieve an ROI well over 100% because you can win multiple buy-ins in one contest. While this is possible, it is unlikely (over time) because of the volume of opponents.
The good news about multis? You don't even need to win 50% of the time to be profitable.
The bad news about multis? More opponents equals more variance, meaning you will run hot and cold. Wild swings requires more bankroll to avoid going busto.
If you are an above average fantasy player, there will be more value (dead money) in the multis. While they have the best risk/reward ratio, that is no indication you will have positive results.
In other words, sometimes we run bad. I have, plenty of times.
Finally, the most important point:
The daily fantasy market, while growing each year, does not yet have enough real money traffic to support a multi-player specialist. And that is where the "serious business" money (aka "the cheddar") will be made.
What I mean is that I cannot play as many multis (especially at higher buy-ins) as I would like.
This is what limits my ROI. And it will limit anyone's ROI.
Until that changes, daily fantasy will be stuck in the lunch money/beer money category. I'm still waiting for the "baller" money to show up.
My lifetime ROI is NOT my return on what I deposited on the fantasy sites; it's the return on the TOTAL entry fees I've paid on all the contests entered.
If you only play HU (heads-up) contests, your ROI will never reach +100% because of the rake. Example: Play ten HU at $11 each, win them all ($200). Your ROI is +81.81%.
You need to win over 54% of your HU contests to be profitable, again because of the rake.
If you play multis (multi-player contests), You can achieve an ROI well over 100% because you can win multiple buy-ins in one contest. While this is possible, it is unlikely (over time) because of the volume of opponents.
The good news about multis? You don't even need to win 50% of the time to be profitable.
The bad news about multis? More opponents equals more variance, meaning you will run hot and cold. Wild swings requires more bankroll to avoid going busto.
If you are an above average fantasy player, there will be more value (dead money) in the multis. While they have the best risk/reward ratio, that is no indication you will have positive results.
In other words, sometimes we run bad. I have, plenty of times.
Finally, the most important point:
The daily fantasy market, while growing each year, does not yet have enough real money traffic to support a multi-player specialist. And that is where the "serious business" money (aka "the cheddar") will be made.
What I mean is that I cannot play as many multis (especially at higher buy-ins) as I would like.
This is what limits my ROI. And it will limit anyone's ROI.
Until that changes, daily fantasy will be stuck in the lunch money/beer money category. I'm still waiting for the "baller" money to show up.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Draftbug Millionaire = Impossible
Someone recently clued me into Draftbug's newest blog, Draftbug Millionaire.
This is supposed to be the fantasy sports version of a bankroll challenge. The goal here is to turn a $70 bankroll into $25,000 in one calendar year. What is not clear is whether the $25,000 is ACTUAL bankroll or $25,000 in contest winnings?
It really doesn't matter. It cannot be done.
You would have to leverage your entire bankroll daily for 12 months. I have played daily games for three years, across all sports. I have averaged 2 winning months to each losing month. I have a lifetime ROI of +5%, straight up against the rake, not including bonuses or rewards.
I have earned $1000 in one day - PROFIT, not winnings - but I have also lost $400+ in one night. If you play to sweep (no roster variation), you will win/lose big. If you hedge (roster variation), you will break even or lose slowly.
Even if you're playing rake free, any normal variance could wipe out your bankroll in less than a week. One starting pitcher getting injured in the 2nd inning could cut your bankroll immensely.
Regardless of injuries or ejections, you will also experience hot and cold streaks. I once won 63 consecutive contests without a loss. I also went 69 consecutive contests without a cash.
Now, I like a lot of what Draftbug is doing. They offer great games and I hope to send a lot of my play to their site. But this promotion is destined to fail, unless they change the parameters somehow.
Heed my words, fantasy players. Exercise good bankroll management. I recommend at least a 20 buy-in rule, and perhaps 100 buy-ins, if you're a bankroll nit.
This is supposed to be the fantasy sports version of a bankroll challenge. The goal here is to turn a $70 bankroll into $25,000 in one calendar year. What is not clear is whether the $25,000 is ACTUAL bankroll or $25,000 in contest winnings?
It really doesn't matter. It cannot be done.
You would have to leverage your entire bankroll daily for 12 months. I have played daily games for three years, across all sports. I have averaged 2 winning months to each losing month. I have a lifetime ROI of +5%, straight up against the rake, not including bonuses or rewards.
I have earned $1000 in one day - PROFIT, not winnings - but I have also lost $400+ in one night. If you play to sweep (no roster variation), you will win/lose big. If you hedge (roster variation), you will break even or lose slowly.
Even if you're playing rake free, any normal variance could wipe out your bankroll in less than a week. One starting pitcher getting injured in the 2nd inning could cut your bankroll immensely.
Regardless of injuries or ejections, you will also experience hot and cold streaks. I once won 63 consecutive contests without a loss. I also went 69 consecutive contests without a cash.
Now, I like a lot of what Draftbug is doing. They offer great games and I hope to send a lot of my play to their site. But this promotion is destined to fail, unless they change the parameters somehow.
Heed my words, fantasy players. Exercise good bankroll management. I recommend at least a 20 buy-in rule, and perhaps 100 buy-ins, if you're a bankroll nit.
Monday, March 23, 2009
LOL Disqualifiaments
I am "jury duty free" for the next 6 years.
Not exactly sure what happened. The court decided not to convene this week, maybe the judge is on vacation. Anyhoo, my service is complete.
I signed up for 6 Sprint+qualifying NASCAR contests. I was pretty sure the qualifying started at 6:40pm. To my surprise, I logged in at 3:45pm and saw the contests were already running.
Oops. No roster, no points. Thanks for the donation. (That's what happens when you take on too many things at once.)
However, I loaded up on the Sprint+Nationwide contests and cleaned up. Despite the 6 DQ's and getting swept in hockey, I STILL MANAGED A WINNING SUNDAY. Oh, I like apples. I like them apples very much.
Getting psyched for baseball to start.
Snapdraft has become a disappointment lately. This month has been the opposite of last, losing all of my profits. I said it would be mile high variance and it has come to fruition. I can't seem to pick two winning goalies on the same night.
At the last minute, I decided to try Snapdraft's NASCAR contest and came away very dissatisfied. In order to make it a multi-event contest, they add one NBA player. Also you are allowed to draft 8 drivers - and you can afford the 8 most expensive choices.
I think it is also weighted too much towards the NBA side. The driver finishing 1st scores only 55fp, while a 20/10 NBA player might drop 60-70fp. It's just not a good game, I won't be playing it in the future.
BTW, my NBA player choice on Sunday? Al Jefferson. Out for the season. FAIL.
LOL Torn ACLaments.
Not exactly sure what happened. The court decided not to convene this week, maybe the judge is on vacation. Anyhoo, my service is complete.
I signed up for 6 Sprint+qualifying NASCAR contests. I was pretty sure the qualifying started at 6:40pm. To my surprise, I logged in at 3:45pm and saw the contests were already running.
Oops. No roster, no points. Thanks for the donation. (That's what happens when you take on too many things at once.)
However, I loaded up on the Sprint+Nationwide contests and cleaned up. Despite the 6 DQ's and getting swept in hockey, I STILL MANAGED A WINNING SUNDAY. Oh, I like apples. I like them apples very much.
Getting psyched for baseball to start.
Snapdraft has become a disappointment lately. This month has been the opposite of last, losing all of my profits. I said it would be mile high variance and it has come to fruition. I can't seem to pick two winning goalies on the same night.
At the last minute, I decided to try Snapdraft's NASCAR contest and came away very dissatisfied. In order to make it a multi-event contest, they add one NBA player. Also you are allowed to draft 8 drivers - and you can afford the 8 most expensive choices.
I think it is also weighted too much towards the NBA side. The driver finishing 1st scores only 55fp, while a 20/10 NBA player might drop 60-70fp. It's just not a good game, I won't be playing it in the future.
BTW, my NBA player choice on Sunday? Al Jefferson. Out for the season. FAIL.
LOL Torn ACLaments.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Corned Beef, Cabbage, Cocktails, Comments, ... And Courts?
I had a fun St. Patrick's Day - the usual family gathering. It's nice to get out of the cave once in a while.
Let's get the bad beat out of the way. I was (un)lucky enough to be selected for jury duty, starting this coming Monday. County court. I have no idea how long it will last. For giving up my usual routine I'll garner the princely sum of $40/day, which I've heard is quite good compared to other cities.
However, this will limit my fantasy play next week. (And pushes back my multimedia project. Sorry.)
Hockey is winding down, and baseball should start up around the 1st. I just don't see playing two daily sports at once. There's too much information to process and it makes that process too time sensitive.
So I'll start baseball as soon as a full schedule of games comes online. (Playoff hockey is not that appealing to me - you can never get many games running on one night.)
Juggling weekly contests are no problem. NASCAR and football are easily managed, given the time in between events. I can load up on those with baseball or hockey running at the same time.
I've been contacted by a few new fantasy sites. It will be interesting to see what the new players will "bring to the party". (<--- +10 if you know what sitcom that quote is from.)
Let's get the bad beat out of the way. I was (un)lucky enough to be selected for jury duty, starting this coming Monday. County court. I have no idea how long it will last. For giving up my usual routine I'll garner the princely sum of $40/day, which I've heard is quite good compared to other cities.
However, this will limit my fantasy play next week. (And pushes back my multimedia project. Sorry.)
Hockey is winding down, and baseball should start up around the 1st. I just don't see playing two daily sports at once. There's too much information to process and it makes that process too time sensitive.
So I'll start baseball as soon as a full schedule of games comes online. (Playoff hockey is not that appealing to me - you can never get many games running on one night.)
Juggling weekly contests are no problem. NASCAR and football are easily managed, given the time in between events. I can load up on those with baseball or hockey running at the same time.
I've been contacted by a few new fantasy sites. It will be interesting to see what the new players will "bring to the party". (<--- +10 if you know what sitcom that quote is from.)
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
(Gearing Up For) El Grandes Ligas Beisbol
Things have been fairly quiet at Buffalo HQ. March has been a break even month so far, although the last day at Snapdraft put me slightly in the red.
No NASCAR this week, so just hockey contests. But I'm greatly anticipating the start of MLB, mostly because of a plethora of fantasy options. Because of this, I've decided to skip any poker until after the first month of the baseball season.
I'll do a write-up of the different available fantasy sites soon. I've noticed that all of the sites (except Snapdraft) are keeping their 2009 scoring systems hidden until the contests launch. I expect FSL to tweak their system from last year's model.
I'm working on a new multimedia presentation and I expect some form of progress to show itself on this blog in the coming week.
Finally, this is blatantly stolen from bfloblog.com. Apparently Hitler is quite the Bills fan:
(I guess this is NSFW if you are offended by Adolph Hitler...)
No NASCAR this week, so just hockey contests. But I'm greatly anticipating the start of MLB, mostly because of a plethora of fantasy options. Because of this, I've decided to skip any poker until after the first month of the baseball season.
I'll do a write-up of the different available fantasy sites soon. I've noticed that all of the sites (except Snapdraft) are keeping their 2009 scoring systems hidden until the contests launch. I expect FSL to tweak their system from last year's model.
I'm working on a new multimedia presentation and I expect some form of progress to show itself on this blog in the coming week.
Finally, this is blatantly stolen from bfloblog.com. Apparently Hitler is quite the Bills fan:
(I guess this is NSFW if you are offended by Adolph Hitler...)
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Ummm, New Twitter Friend?
I'm pretty sure this is only because of some prop bet to get followers on Twitter:
Although I do realize that my chicken wing pic is somewhat hypnotic. (To omnivores.)
Now that I have one of the world's best poker players following me, can I get one of the world's worst?
Remember, you can follow all of my fantasy results on my Twitter page. And perhaps a poker tweet from time to time.
Although I do realize that my chicken wing pic is somewhat hypnotic. (To omnivores.)
Now that I have one of the world's best poker players following me, can I get one of the world's worst?
Remember, you can follow all of my fantasy results on my Twitter page. And perhaps a poker tweet from time to time.
Friday, March 06, 2009
Not A Whole Lot Going On
Not very much to report this week.
I had my worst month ever on Fantasy Sport Live. According to recent trends, the last 13 months went like this: LWWLWWLWWLWWL. So I'm hoping WW is in my future for the next couple of months.
I had a very good month on Snapdraft. I look forward to baseball launching, which will give me more contests in my rotation.
There are some new fantasy sites launching, which is only good for the consumer. More on those later.
Pokerstars announced changes to their VIP program, reducing Silver, Gold and Platinum requirements by 20-25%. This has me seriously considering grinding LO8 again. It all depends on how much I want to be tied to my PC (and how bad I need the monies).
Some family is coming into town this weekend, so I might take Saturday off from the fantasy contests, we shall see.
I had my worst month ever on Fantasy Sport Live. According to recent trends, the last 13 months went like this: LWWLWWLWWLWWL. So I'm hoping WW is in my future for the next couple of months.
I had a very good month on Snapdraft. I look forward to baseball launching, which will give me more contests in my rotation.
There are some new fantasy sites launching, which is only good for the consumer. More on those later.
Pokerstars announced changes to their VIP program, reducing Silver, Gold and Platinum requirements by 20-25%. This has me seriously considering grinding LO8 again. It all depends on how much I want to be tied to my PC (and how bad I need the monies).
Some family is coming into town this weekend, so I might take Saturday off from the fantasy contests, we shall see.
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