April Showers Bring May Flowers (Hopefully.)

The first two weeks of the baseball season were an unmitigated disaster. My lack of productive pitching doomed me on all fronts. Since then I have altered my baseball strategy.

Fortunately, with my new strategy I have been winning consistently while playing on Fantasy Sports Live. However, there have not been enough profits over the last two weeks to cover the previous losses. April will be a losing month.

Three straight weeks of losers in NASCAR didn't exactly help the cause. (But that is streaky, as it was last year.)

So after exactly 15 months of a W-W-L pattern, I have started 2009 with W-L-W-L over a four month period.

I fully expect May to be a winning month. I have confidence in my methods. Perhaps I should scale back the NASCAR play just to be sure. Then again, I am due!

Running Bad, NASCAR Style

My fantasy team this weekend: Jimmie Johnson, David Ragan, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Robby Gordon.

With 13 laps to go all drivers are on the lead lap and complete pit stops.

With 8 laps to go, Juan Montoya and Denny Hamlin wreck, taking out Johnson and Robby Gordon.

Restart with 4 laps left, Tony Stewart loses a cylinder and drops to the back of the lead lap.

On the final lap, Carl Edwards takes the lead and spins out with 100 yards left, failing to cross the finish line (and finish on the lead lap).

So only David Ragan even finishes in the points.

Three weeks now I've been getting crushed. How can you win if your horses keep getting wrecked?

Around The Clock Freerolls At Snapdraft

If you have ever thought about trying out Snapdraft, now is the time.

They are offering 25 player, $5 winner-take-all freerolls in every sport.

Once one fills up, another launches in its place. Anyone with the time could sign up for dozens each day.

If there was ever a way to build a bankroll without risk, this is it. I certainly think this (lack of) rake is beatable.

The Mojo Is Found

My intertubes have been down all day. It's just as well - I wasn't planning on playing today.

I'm hoping I've finally figured out a winning baseball strategy.

Early returns (since my 1st week meltdown) have been good. Last night was a winner, cashing 9 of 17 for a +63.38% ROI. I've had two good winners, one loser and one break even since I launched the modified attack.

However, NASCAR failed to help the bottom line. I only cashed in 2 of 8 attempts this week. My picks were solid, but they didn't lead very many laps. This put me one outside the money in 4 contests.

Although my bankroll is nowhere near where it was in January, I feel much better about things heading into the summer. I have solid information and strategy to carry me through the next few months. I just need traffic to stay steady or improve.

Thinking Outside The Bandbox

Baker Bowl in Philly - One of the original "bandboxes"

I managed a winner last night, going 4 for 4 with an ROI over +200%. I'm working on a new baseball strategy, which is different from the general guidelines I use to attack all of the other sports: NASCAR, football, hockey and occasionally basketball. Since baseball is the highest variance of these games, it requires a unique approach.

I'm not sure I have enough time to turn April into a winning month, but I expect the bottom line to improve. There are some NASCAR contests tonight that should help the cause.

And that's why I'm playing - to win money. It's not for the leaderboard, not for the challenge, not to talk trash. I want the cabbage.

So I have to practice good game selection and bankroll management if I'm going to succeed. I'm going to play on the site that gives me the best chance to win money.

Oh, Good Grief.

Fantasy baseball has not been very good to me this year. I though I was off the schneid but variance has gotten the better of me.

I have cashed in only 3 of my last 46 contests and have decimated most of my bankroll. This seems to happen once a year, usually during baseball season. Coincidence?

The analysis of my losing streak is quite simple. I didn't have any pitching. Here's a list of my pitching (with results) so far this year:

Sabathia NYY -12: 8 for 38, ROI -30.80%.
Dempster CHC +10: 4 for 22, ROI -22.68%.
Wang NYY -15: 1 for 19, ROI -94.71%.
Danks CWS +17: 9 for 14, ROI +90.84%.
Harden CHC +21: 12 for 19, ROI +93.12%.
Peavy SDP +30: 6 for 16, ROI -10.27%.
Jurrjens ATL +9: 1 for 15, ROI -90.10%.
Pelfrey NYM -2: 2 for 15, ROI -85.24%.
Dice-K BOS -14: 0 for 16, ROI -100%.

No pitching = no wins. I didn't even sniff a winning day unless I was +17 or higher.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this gem: 44% of the time, I would have scored better if I did not have a pitcher on my roster.

The point here is that you need a good pitching performance to win. It sucks that one player counts for so much of the score.

Just to show you how much pitching matters, I averaged the scores from each winning roster in every 10 player multi from the last week.

Over 35 contests, the winning roster had an average pitching score of +24.2 and an average total score of +72.6. This neatly worked out to an average 33.3%. Pitching counts for one third.

I realize this is a small sample size, but consider this - those 10 player events had the highest caps, which means users could afford the best position players. Move down to lower caps and pitching counts EVEN MORE.

So I'm not sure how I'm going to proceed from here. I'll probably carry on in some capacity. However, I'll need a heater to get back to playing the same volume in the future.

I do have one painful reminder that I'm a long term winner at this. I just paid my taxes on my 2008 fantasy winnings.

I Wish I Could Quit You

Well, that was the shortest hiatus in the history of this blog.

Despite ALL of my missteps, I managed a winning day yesterday. 9 for 14 with an ROI above +90%.

Yes, I was surprised too. I did not sweat any of the games once I learned ANA/OAK was canceled.

I'm still a little frustrated. Even with my preparation, a convergence of events and information happened while I was offline. Combine that with the funky 12:30 start time and the results were rosters with plenty 'o holes.

I'd like to feel all of those things were within my control. Hopefully they will be from now on.

Back to our regularly scheduled blogging.

Hiatus

I am so fucking tilted right now.

Nady plays instead of Matsui. R/R matchup for the win, Joe Girardi?

Andruw Jones plays IN DH SLOT instead of Blalock. Another R/R matchup, not to mention Jones is 1 for 19 LIFETIME vs. Pavano.

OAK/ANA was just canceled, almost assuring me of another losing day. I'm sorry the pitcher got killed, but LOL carcrashaments.

I go out to lunch, come back 90 minutes later and my whole slew of contests are shot.

Running bad is an understatement.

I always notice a spike in traffic when I run really bad (or really good). There is some serious schadenfreude coming from a few locations.

I'll be back, I just don't know when. I'm not sure I want to reload until I feel I have this game under control.

A Variance Dilemma

I have not started off the month very well. The first two days of the baseball season are in the books and I have yet to find a pitching win.

CC Sabathia scored -12 on FSL for me. That is the worst score ANY baseball player has ever put up on any of my rosters. Ever.

Just as I suspected, pitching still reigns supreme in baseball contests. That extra 8 or 10 points for a win is so crucial. While a solo HR is also +8, the pitcher has the potential to put up so many more points than a batter.

Draftbug has been going about the same, turning in mild losses over the last 2 days. I did win 5 of 6 HU last night thanks to a Huston Street save. The RP spot makes the game more interesting.

Snapdraft is really my sore spot right now. I've had 15 straight losing sessions and it's been a month since my last winning night. My bankroll went from 3x my inital deposit to less than 50%. In other words, I went from 100 buy-ins to 300 buy-ins to 45 buy-ins... all in under 90 days.

There are two issues here. The first is the contests - they are winner take all. Every one. I have tons of 2nd place finishes, but they pay squadoosh. Secondly, the rake is higher than the other fantasy sites. This slowly eats more bankroll as you lose.

Now, I don't think I am a bad fantasy player. While I lost on snapdraft, I won on FSL playing over the same time period. But there is no question the flatter payout structure helped me turn a profit.

I'm at the point with snapdraft where I may try a "double up". I might let my bankroll ride on a single contest. If I bust out, I probably won't reload. If I win, maybe it will put me on the comeback trail. We shall see.

First Day Of Baseball, Draftmix Still Dead

I've loaded up on contests at FSL, Draftbug and Snapdraft.

In the immortal words of Judge Mills Lane, "Let's get it on!"



Traffic seems to be pretty good, except at Draftmix and Game Day Draft.

No contests at either of those sites.

LOL deadsiteaments.

(BTW, postponeaments in STL and CIN one time plzkthxbai.)

FSL Baseball Scoring New, Hopefully Improved

Since I last reported, Fantasy Sports Live has tweaked their scoring a bit more towards the hitters. Runs scored and RBI are now +2. As reported before, ER allowed are -2 and wins have been reduced to +8.

On the surface, this appears to be a good change. Pitching points will be reduced. However, hitter points will be increased. While this may create more roster balance, it might not improve the quality of the game.

Last year, a solo HR was worth +6 points: +4 for the HR and +1 each for R and RBI. In 2009 that same solo HR is worth +8.

Now a single with a stolen base and run scored was +4 total and is now +5 in 2009. A triple and run scored also went from +4 to +5.

So, what's the point? It appears HR hitters are most rewarded by this scoring change. Jack Cust type players will be more valuable than Jose Reyes or Curtis Granderson.

This will again incentivize players to short their rosters with only power hitters. Pick a stud SP with 5-6 sluggers as opposed to a full roster of position players.

While pitcher scoring has been reduced, those pitchers can still rack up massive points. A SP going all 9 innings, striking out 12 and walking 1, allowing 1 ER and 3 hits, scores +41. (And SP's should be CHEAPER this year.)

Compare that score to a batter hitting 3 solo HR's in one game, which equals +24.

Now the best news about the scoring changes are the player values. Batter prices went WAY upwards, while pitcher prices went mildly lower. Batters, on average are 25-33% higher than last season. This will make it tougher for users to load up on sluggers AND pick a quality SP.

It will be interesting to see how often FSL adjusts player values and if they ever adjust the total caps on the contests.

I'm going to reserve judgement at this time on my endorsement of the FSL baseball game. I'm definitely going to give it a try. My suspicion is - while the rules have changed, the overall feel and strategy of the game has not changed.

Baseball Scoring Comparison (aka Hope Springs Eternal)

I managed a winning month on Fantasy Sports Live, but I had my worst ROI month to date on Snapdraft. A shining -48.11% ate all of my profits. Yeesh.

With the baseball season coming up on Monday, I wanted to take the time to review the scoring systems from the main fantasy sites.

Daily fantasy baseball has been a fickle friend to me. I had my best week ever playing baseball contests and also my worst day ever. I've always considered it a high variance game.

Let's start with the oldest NKOTB, Fantasy Sports Live. Since they have not posted any new contests, I'm assuming their contests are the same as listed in the rules:

Roster = 9 man
Positions = SP,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,LF,CF,RF
Single = +1
2B = +2
3B = +3
HR = +4
R = +1
RBI = +1
BB = +1
SB = +2
Batter K = -1
IP = +3
H allowed = -1
BB allowed = -1
ER allowed = -2
Pitcher K = +1
Win = +8
(Pitcher's batting stats do NOT count towards your score.)

My knock on this game in the past is that it's always been too pitching heavy. You spend 50% of your cap on one spot. And you must get a good pitching performance to have any realistic chance, save a multi HR performance by a batter.

I will say they are trying to balance it more (by raising ER to -2). I'm just hoping the traffic stays high enough to allow lots of multi-player contests.

Moving on to fantasy EnnnnNBC (Snapdraft):

Roster = 10 man
Positions = Px2,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,OFx3
Single = +1
2B = +2
3B = +3
HR = +4
R = +1
RBI = +1
BB = +1
SB = +2
IP = +1
Pitcher K = +1
Win = +10
Save = +10
(Assuming P batting stats WILL count towards total score. No indication otherwise.)

I actually think this game will be very balanced. There is no distinction between SP and RP, both are available. Also the OF position is flex, meaning you can select three RFers if you want. Pitchers will not rack up 50+ points, which is possible in other games.

One of the downsides to Snapdraft games is that their salaries NEVER change, meaning some players will be (obvious) super bargains all season long.

Finally, the youngest NKOTB, Draftbug:

Roster = 10 man
Postions = SP,RP,C,1B,2B,3B,SS,OFx3
Single = +1
2B = +2
3B = +3
HR = +4
R = +1
RBI = +1
SB = +2
BB = +1
Batter K = -1
IP = +3
H allowed = -1
BB allowed = -1
ER allowed = -1
Pitcher K = +1
Win = +10
Save = +7
Loss = -3
(Assuming P batting stats WILL count towards total score. No indication otherwise.)

This is basically a hybrid of the other two games. Again a flex in the OF positions, which I like. This is the only game that gives scoring for a loss. Having two P spots gives you a chance to come back if your SP craps out.

Two scoring items I would like to see added to any game:

-1 for Pitcher HBP
-3 for Blown Save

Anything to balance the hitter vs. pitcher scoring is good in my book.

Overall, these games are strikingly similar. Except for adding a relief pitcher to the mix, your scouting and roster selection would be almost identical.

Since the games are very much alike, I recommend playing at the site that gives you the most incentives (i.e. bonuses and rewards).