Some Days, Things Are Looking Up A Little Bit.

It's been pretty quiet around these parts. I guess quiet is good.

With two days left in the month, I'm sitting with an ROI of +12.51%. It's highly unlikely I will finish the month down, although the final ROI could swing several points in either direction.

A winning May would put 2009 at W-L-W-L-W. I need a winning June to resume my W-W-L ratio.

I've been playing well within my bankroll, which is extremely boring (to write about). But it's smart. I understand how those big time poker players feel when they play a tiny buy-in event. Little juice = little excitement.

I can see why those poker players look for stakes to the big events. I've also thought about looking for a backer. I'm not sure I could find a good arrangement in today's economy.

Even with the small stakes, I still take every contest seriously. My picks have become more quantitative over time, leaving most of the decisions up to the numbers. I try to leave most of the gut decisions out of it, although weather and game-time decisions often make me choose the sure thing over the riskier pick.

Things are going to be slower until football. Only baseball and NASCAR until September.

I finally broke through in NASCAR, with a clean sweep in the multis. (All 1st places except one 2nd place.) It's streaky, somewhat feast or famine, like football.

I have some new web projects I'm working on, I hope to make an announcement soon. I'm also considering doing a podcast. I may just stick to audio, I'm not so sure I want my ugly mug on youtube.

Have a great weekend.

TPM: Bubbles Plays With RUSH

I got back from Cambridge today and crashed hard. The wedding was a fun, beautiful experience.

Here's Bubbles performing with his favorite band, Rush (also with Ed from Barenaked Ladies).

Back to the grind tomorrow.

TPM: J-Roc Kitty Turntables

It's been kind of a blah week, fantasy wise. A slight loser. I had such a hot start to the month, it would be difficult to end up in the red - likely single digit positive ROI.

Here's the Trailer Park Monday clip, J-Roc (the resident white rapper) getting down with one of Bubbles' cats. (There are some f-bombs, Nomasayin'?)

Match Game (Fantasy Sports Edition)

[Scroll down for the answers...]

1. When someone emailed me wanting me to test and/or promote their site for free, my first thought was __________ .

2. When the fantasy site owner told me that my deposits would be completely safe and then stopped offering contests altogether, I wanted to say ___________ .

3. When I was promised a contract (and compensation) for consulting on a new fantasy site, only to never hear from the parties involved again, I realized I was dealing with ___________ .

1.


2.


3.


Poker is rife with con artists. I really hope the fantasy sports industry is not filled with the same percentage of angle shooting scumbags.

Am I wrong to expect there are some good folks out there?

Quickie Trailer Park Monday

Here's Ricky and Lucy discussing how they fit lap dances into their budget (One f-bomb at the end):



In fantasy news, I lost a little ground this weekend but May is still a decent winner. More soon.

Explaining The Swings

Even after playing poker and fantasy sports for 6+ years, the short term ups and downs can be difficult to deal with. It's hard to take a long term view when several straight days of losses pile up.

People who invest in equities have a much easier time seeing the long run. (Well, maybe not recently.) While their portfolios change in value every day, they (should) have some stocks/funds growing in value every year, while other may be stagnant or lose value. In other words, they know - over time - they should come out ahead. The question is how much.

It's difficult to explain my fantasy sports adventures to a non-sports, non-gambling crowd. Most of these folks cannot understand how I can risk (or absorb) the losses. What's interesting to me is that the emotional cost of mounting losses always outweighs whatever actual dollar amounts I lose. (aka TILT.)

Let me reiterate that I am a lifetime winner (in both poker and fantasy) and I never play completely outside my bankroll.

While talking to a friend recently, I came up with a decent analogy between fantasy sports and any other business venture. Obviously, the goal is to create a profit.

My sister runs a "home party" business. This model has been used to sell several lines of products. Basically, she visits homes in a group social setting and demonstrates wares she has for sale. Then she takes orders (if any) for the products, on which she makes a commission (or markup).

In theory this is a good business model and my sister is one of the top sales generators for her product line. However, she has had many home parties that were poorly attended or had little sales potential. On these parties she lost both her money and her time invested: Travel expenses, samples and freebies, door prizes, etc.

Overall, my sisters business has been profitable, just like mine. She has had many more winners than losers, resulting in a "positive ROI".

The only difference is my losses stare me straight in the eye each night they happen, while hers are hidden in "the cost of doing business". Each business model operates on maximizing winning nights and minimizing losers.

It's just that her losers aren't posted in big red numbers on a spreadsheet.

Update & Trailer Park Mondays

I'm horribly behind in posting my stats. I had a lousy last week of April and as predicted, finished the month a loser. So far May has been profitable, but it's a high variance situation and I need to learn to handle the swings.

I have a few fantasy sports industry thoughts to blog about when I have the time. Just a whole lot of stuff going on right now.

I've decided to post some snippets from one of my favorite shows, Trailer Park Boys. I think it's comic genius and I cannot understand why it hasn't been shown in the states. (BTW, the entire series is available on youtube.)

It was hard to pick which clip to start with, but here's Bubbles having a dream about breakfast (Possibly NSFW due to salty language):