Trying To Figure Out How To Get There From Here

(Which adequately sums up my entire adult life. Alas, another story for another time.)

It's been a rather quiet week on the fantasy front. I'm pretty much treading water, which means my FSL totals for February will be my worst on record.

I have been sticking to the multis as promised. I'm hoping another winning week at NASCAR will continue to regenerate my bankroll.

Snapdraft has actually been very good this month, although I have seemed to plateau lately. Last night was a very good score that was beaten by a few points in almost every contest. 3 for 38, with a bunch of 2nd place (1st loser) finishes.

What's important to glean from that is this: Multis have high variance and 3 for 38 is a very likely result. I (or you if you play too) have to get over the swings like they are a roller coaster with ups and downs.

I don't get too excited if I go 25 for 28. I'm pleased, of course, but I know that for every day like that, there is a 3 for 28 day to balance it out.

I'll admit it is hard sometimes to fight the tilt, especially if you have 7-8 losing nights in a row. The best way to get over it is to reminisce about a winning streak of equal proportions. Or review your withdrawal history from your favorite site.

I think daily fantasy sports is a great LEGAL way to make extra money and I would love for it to grow big enough that it could pay all the bills.

I've Always Kinda Been Into The Group Thing.... (Don't Judge Me.)

With zero fantasy contests on the agenda today, it's time to catch up on things.

February has been a horrendous month on FSL. However, I've seemed to stop the bleeding. There's no chance of a winning month, but with a solid final week I can avoid my worst monthly loss ($$$ wise).

I had a winning NASCAR weekend, finishing first in both $11 multis. Every other entry in those contests had Allmendinger. Keep picking him - there's no way Petty can afford to fund 4 or 5 teams. And if they keep running him, their other teams will suffer. Kahne is the only member of that squad worth picking.

Don't get me wrong, AJ is a decent driver in a tough situation. But there are much better fantasy choices.

Overall, it was a good weekend. Let's just say I'm glad there's no more restrictor plate racing for awhile.

Over on Snapdraft, It's been a winning month. Talk about variance - it's feast or famine almost every night. I've managed to secure a top spot on the leader board this month. Whether I finish #1 will depend on how much hockey they run. There are only contests on nights with 7+ games on the schedule.

I firmly believe the (Snapdraft) rake is beatable. While I won't get into the reasons why, their superior traffic allows me to test out some of my mad scientist fantasy theories.

"...Success"!

And I feel more of my success has come from my strategies (as opposed to my mad roster pickin' skillz).

This month is shaping up to be about +30% ROI on Snapdraft and -30% ROI on FSL. So why am I winning on one site and losing on another, basically picking the same players?

One obvious reason is the game scoring is different. It's been a LOLfest on FSL, with a bunch of dogs putting up huge totals. (Adam Foote FTW? More like Adam Foote WTF!) My good scores have been beaten by redonkulous scores. It happens.

Another reason is that the caliber of opponent on FSL is superior. Even though Kaiseroll13 doesn't play fantasy hockey, there are several other players who have over a years experience with the game and playing them heads-up is becoming less of a +EV proposition.

Also, the increased availability of NHL player info has made my opponents much better than last year.

Conversely, on Snapdraft the traffic is so much higher, I'm certain to run into a few donks every night. While I have had an "oh-fer" night (a big one!), it doesn't happen very often.

OK, let's try to tie this all together.

Simply put, I think it's in my best interest to play only multi-player fantasy games from now on. My skills are obviously better than the average player, so I expect there to be some dead money in ANY multi contest.

Since the FSL HU are barely +EV and the Snapdraft HU are raked too much, it seems the HU games are out of the rotation for now.

I think this is the most important statement of this rambling mess:

IMO, FSL hasn't increased their overall traffic very much over the past 20 months. I feel this is because they don't offer enough multis. Think about it - it seems almost all of the 10 player $1 multis fill up. Fast.

The $1 (no rake) contests are genius. Better than a freeroll. Players feel they are getting value for their money and the site is making money off their deposits.

But FSL limits their multis, mostly because they are afraid of creating overlays. I understand this. Offering HU games are no risk to the site. But offering more $1 multis creates very limited overlay potential.

The more multis FSL offers, the less intimidated the new players will be with the "hogs". This will increase traffic and that eventually will increase rake for the site. I hope they at least experiment with the offerings.

So I'm sticking to multis in all sports for now. This means my volume and my win rates will go down. Hopefully my ROI will go up.

Crash

Crash. I fell asleep this afternoon after running some errands. It was welcome, as I have not been sleeping well this year.

However, I slept past 7pm and I forgot to fill out my late hockey contests on FSL:



Oops. It was only a $5.50 and a $1, but a donation nonetheless. Which brings me to.....

Crash. I played a lot of NASCAR contests on FSL. My results can be summed up in one moment:



Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s "unintentional" contact with Brian Vickers wiped out several drivers - including at least three on most of my fantasy rosters.

I cashed in only 2 of 29 Daytona contests. That's what I get for playing restrictor plate bingo. Next week will be back to (somewhat) normal, with the good drivers using their extra horsepower to speed away from potential trouble.

Congrats to all the donkeys that picked the Petty Racing entries. Those cars were not very competitive, just extremely lucky.

I need to perform better going forward. Which brings me to.....

Crash. As it stands today, I'm having the worst month on FSL in my personal history. I've only won 35% of my contests this month, and I've averaged 55% over the last two calender years.

I started the month playing a little higher than usual and the results were bad. I've only won one contest all month at $33 and up. Now I'm pretty much stuck playing $11 and under unless I want to infuse my bankroll with the money I've withdrawn over the last few months.

I'm a big believer in "booking wins" - pocketing profits earned for personal use. I think enjoying the fruits of your labor is important to keeping focus and desire going strong.

Over on snapdraft I had a horrible weekend, going 2 for 76 (after a 31 for 32 Friday). I knew going in it would be a mile-high variance proposition, and it has gone as expected. Even with the cold streak I maintained a lifetime ROI over +29%.

I've estimated given my playing strategy that I need a win rate above 3 for 8 (37.5%) to turn a profit on snapdraft. Going into tomorrow, I've maintained a win rate above 47%. So far so good.

My losing skids always seem to come in waves, I've had a losing month every 3rd month since April 2008 (I did not play in May 2008). Let's hope the pattern continues, meaning I'll have two consecutive winners in March and April 2009.

Although I'm not overly discouraged by my losing streak, I'm somewhat despondent. Which brings me to.....

Crash. This plane crash in Clarence Center has me thinking about a lot of heavy stuff lately.



I've thought about death pretty much every day in 2009. I'm dealing with family and personal issues, and I often wonder how much time I have left to do the things I feel I NEED to do in order to label my life complete.

These poor crash victims had that opportunity tragically taken from them.

The things I need to do for me have taken a back seat to the things I need to do for others. While that has a reward too, it makes me wonder if I have the proper me/them balance in my life.

I hope all of you can do your thing before you experience your own "crash".

(LOL, deep thoughts from a fantasy sports junkie. Take that with a grain of salt.)

Wheels Fo' Reals, Yo!

Today we finally get a NASCAR race that has meaningful results.

While no championship points are awarded, I do have about 10 fantasy contests riding on the Gatorade Duels.

If you want to play NASCAR fantasy sports contests, look no further than Fantasy Sports Live.

You can play Nationwide + Sprint Cup contests or Sprint qualifying + Sprint Cup.

Use signup code BUFFALO and get a $20 bonus on a $100 deposit. Gogogogogogo!

Contest Hog 2: Electric Boogaloo

So it seems the contest hog issue is alive and well. More musings from the FSL message board.

Tippy, whose opinion I do respect, chimes in:

"My problem is that having to play hog all the time does three things:

1) it definitely keeps me from playing on those nights when I don't really have the time to get prepared, cause I know he will probably beat me. Therefore I can't play for fun. House loses my juice.

2) it keeps me from signing up first in any game because I don't want to play him, therefore it limits the number of games I can play. And since 'hog' has chased away all the other players too, there aren't any other games with people signed up. What a vicious circle. Everyone sitting out and never signing up first because they are sick of playing 'hog'. Game selection sucks. Players go elsewhere. House loses my juice.

3) Having two players put in $11, having the house take $2, leaves a 'bet 11 to win 9' proposition. Even if I am as good as 'Hog' we all still lose in the long run playing equal talent. Even Vegas is a 'bet 11 to win 10 proposition', and we know how hard it is to beat Vegas. Why would I ever want to sit in a game where the players are as good as I am and then have to pay juice on top of that? And why would I want to play the same damn guy every damn night in every damn game? Talk about Negative Expectation. I want the fish, just like everyone else does. Why would I want to sit at a table with Johnny Chan, Hellmuth, Negreanu, etc. every game for the rest of my life? FSL doesn't seem to realize that the shark is killing off all the fish, which in turn chases off other sharks and other fish, leaving a single king of the empty ocean. House loses my juice."

Now Tippy is talking about Kaiseroll13, they both play hoops on FSL. Kaiseroll13 must still be getting tons of action, because he's pulled away from me on the leader board.

Next up is "pull the goalie", who's a little more cryptic:

"I am new to daily fantasy sports and was thinking about the contest hog topic, then find it here. I am sick of playing against the same person in every head to head and the same couple people in any other contest. I don't spend all day on this and there is never a cheap game to join, I start one and the same player jumps in even minutes before the game starts. I like the site and the payouts are better than I've seen elsewhere, but it's no fun going up against the same top of the leader board player every time. You're losing another new player."

Since I have played this fellow in hockey, I assume he's talking about me. Does this mean I'm a contest hog? No one has officially called me out. Don't worry, I can take it.

Now that we've endured all of the whining in this post, let's get to some facts:

Fact #1: I'm down huge this month. I was just on a heavy six day losing streak. I've lost more in the last week than most of these players have ever SPENT on FSL.

I have no sympathy for anyone complaining about me when I'm losing.

Heck, I've lost hundreds in one day. I had three losing months in 2008, which were all substantial. However, I've always come back enough to post a healthy profit for the year.

Which brings me to:

Fact #2: Winning players will never stop playing. If you are winning substantially on FSL, why would you stop? Once you fill out a roster, you can play multiple games with that same roster. This way, you can spread out your risk over several contests with almost ZERO additional effort.

A winning player knows the better long term strategy is to play five $11 contests as opposed to one $54 contest.

From another point of view: If you are a winning HU NLHE poker player, and you see an uber fish sitting at a table, do you let someone else play him, just because you're a nice guy? Hell, no. They wouldn't do the same for you. You're there to make some money, right?

(I actually have left most of the $3.40 and $5.50 HU games to other players in FSL hockey. And LOLZ at anyone crying over a $3.40 game.)

The bottom line: Winning players want to play as much as possible, and most will take on all challengers (within their bankroll).

Fact #3: Anyone who plays for fun will lose. It's inevitable. It's just a matter of time.

First off, If you are really playing for fun, why aren't you playing a free game somewhere? While FSL doesn't offer play money games, there have to be some out there somewhere.

Secondly, anyone that "doesn't have the time" to put into picking a good team will lose. That should be self-explanatory.

Finally, If you do play on FSL, stick to the $1 games and you'll do OK. There's no rake and if you do lose, you'll lose slowly.

FSL also offers "beginner" games from time to time. I NEVER play those.

Fact #4: There will always - ALWAYS - be a contest hog. If both Kaiseroll13 and myself stopped playing on FSL today, it would just be a matter of time before another player became the newest contest hog. I would even argue that there are other players who are contest hogs in football or baseball, they just don't play out of season.

I've always been honest and forthright about my play and my results. I've tried to be respectful to others in the community.

I've even shared some of my insights and strategies publicly. It shows - the competition is tougher than it has been in the past.

I don't think my play will kill FSL, but just know I will always play where there is action.

Snapdraft Bonus Info

It seems everyone is googling "snapdraft bonus" lately, so here's the skinny:

There are no bonus codes for snapdraft. They do not offer affiliate signups.

When I signed up for Snapdraft, they gave me $5 in my account to play with. I do not know how long that will last, so sign up and see if you get it.

Snapdraft is also offering a 10% bonus on a $100 deposit. This is not a first timer bonus or a reload bonus. It is a reusable bonus, AFAIK.

Last night was more of the same. Getting killed on FSL, but killing on Snapdraft. 26 for 31 on multis last night. My lifetime ROI on Snapdraft is now +48.71%.

Funny contest last night. The only one I cashed in on FSL, six of my nine players scored negative:

An Interesting Night Of Mostly Fail, Some Success

Tuesday was the first big schedule night of hockey in February. I played heavy on FSL, with several contests over $22. I lost all of them save one, and most of the losses were by less than 10 fantasy points.

My choice of Ryan Whitney was my undoing. While he has been a solid performer, he was an unhealthy -4 last night, earning -18 fantasy points. If he had not been on the ice for just one of Montreal's goals, I would not have had a losing night.

It was my biggest loser ($$$ wise) of 2009 and perhaps of the hockey season. I am a few days behind in crunching my numbers.

Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug.

However...

On Snapdraft I was an undisputed fantasy stud, winning 18 of 22 multis I entered. While I didn't win back as much as I lost on FSL, I had a huge return of over +150% ROI.

I used the same roster for all 22 contests. All of my players performed well except Sidney Crosby and Shea Weber.

My 18 wins should put me on the leader board, which they apparently reset every month. They don't offer hockey every night, so it will be tough to maintain leader board status.

I am presently a lifetime winner on Snapdraft, with an ROI of +10.87% even though I have won only 38.5% of my contests. Those results do not include any bonuses or rewards.

I have a deeper conviction that Snapdraft can be beaten long term even with the steeper rake. (I now understand how poker pros feel about the dead money at the WSOP.)

Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug.

How's My Sunday? Super, Thanks For Asking!

Another lazy Sunday in the Buffalo cave. I have to admit, I'm not that into the Superbowl this year. I'll just cook up some mad crazy delicious pizza and see how long I last through the game.

I had a great night Saturday with the fantasy hockey, going 14 for 14 on FSL with an ROI of +103.86%. It was a nice way to finish the month. I had a 7 day losing streak earlier, but I was a winner 9 of the last 10 nights, finishing 134 for 243 (55.14%) with an ROI of +11.86%. Even though I've done better, I would be pleased with those results every month.

I also had my first winning night on Snapdraft after three tries. I won 5 of 12 contests to finish up a few bucks. I used the same roster in every contest, finishing first in some and last in some. (Game selection & risk aversion for the mother humpin' win, yo.)

One interesting thing about Snapdraft: You cannot see your opponents until the contests start. While this might suck for users trying to cherry pick the weaker foe, it is a brilliant move by Snapdraft. There is no "contest hog" issue to worry about.

I also noticed Patrick K. (Kaiseroll13) fell off the Snapdraft leader board. Maybe he doesn't see as much value in those games.

I still think there is money to be made there. I'm sticking to my $1 game experiment for now, but I'm hoping to ramp it up by baseball season.

BTW, NASCAR starts in a week!

Enjoy the game.

ETA: Almost forgot! Superbowl pick: Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Steelers. I think this is more of a cover play. I expect Pittsburgh to win, but not by double digits. [2009 YTD 3-2.]