The Handcuff: Good Play Or Bad?

I continue to post "massive fail" results on FSL. 0 for 13 last night. Losers on 10 of my last 11 nights.

Fortunately, I don't have anytime to play for the rest of this week. This means I'll close out the month a slight winner.

The most interesting nugget from last night's games came from Kasieroll13. He handcuffed his starting pitchers in our contests. It's the first time I've ever seen him do this.

The concept of the handcuff is simple: Pick both starting pitchers from the same game. In theory, one pitcher will prevail - and there is a slight chance both pitchers will put up decent numbers.

However, in baseball it is also possible for both starting pitchers to miss out on the win.

I have seen this strategy used in hockey quite a bit. When two premier goalies face off, it's a solid play, because one of the goalies is guaranteed the win (barring injury).

In snapdraft hockey, where you pick two goalies, I have seen players handcuff quite a bit. (But there is a shutout bonus included there.)

In snapdraft baseball, you pick 2 pitchers. Handcuffing your pitchers is a poor play, because you need a huge score to win.

Back to FSL - by the numbers, it seems that the only way handcuffing really works is when there are enough multis to cover the cost of splitting the buy-ins. I'm really surprised that players like Kaiseroll13 and PrimeTime420 are hedging so much lately.

IMO, all that hedging is reducing the amount you can win. But maybe the strategy is changing as the offerings change.

I still believe that handcuffing on FSL baseball is a poor choice. Thoughts?

Lost Week (Or A Week Of Losses)

This past week was a total loss. I didn't get very much done. Way behind on things.

I also managed to lose 7 of the last 8 days on FSL. With three "oh for" days thrown in. Sigh. My bankroll was quickly halved.

July ROI has plummeted to +6.26%. I actually have to guard against a losing month. Go figure.

Enjoy the trailer (pun intended) for the new TPB movie, Countdown To Liquor Day, while I try to get some work done.

Close, But No Cigar.

I managed to take a run at the $110 bonus for scoring 110 pts on FSL:



A few others have come close to 100, but I don't think anyone else has scored higher to date.

Although I am coming off two losing nights, this has a chance to be my best month of baseball ever. My July ROI sits at +26.26% going into tonight's contests.

It's been somewhat quiet here lately... but stick with me, dear readership. I have a big announcement coming here shortly.

I realize I have teased this before, but I'm up against a deadline - so I have to spill the beans soon. Stay tuned.

Stumbling To The All-Star Break (& TPM)

Just a quickie post as I have to take care of some household chores.

July started off spectacular... but all heaters must come to an end. This weekend I managed a whopping 1 for my last 29 as we hit the break. However, my great start leaves me with an overall +23.25% ROI for the month.

For your viewing pleasure, here's Bubbles and Ricky playing hash hockey while Julian, Lahey and Randy are taking the bus home from jail. (Likely not safe for work.)

OT: Wall St. Electronic Trading = Rakeback Bots?

Sorry I missed the TPM. Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend.

I'm off to a scorching start in July, winning 5 of my first 6 days for a cumulative ROI of +73.92%. (I realize that is unsustainable, but I'll take it!)

Going off topic today, here's an interesting Bloomberg piece on the high volume electronic traders:



Did I hear that right? High volume traders are mainly seeking "liquidity rebates"? Do traders get rakeback?

Here's a great clip from the new documentary by Michael Covel - Broke: The New American Dream . Some discussion about poker and good bets (+EV) versus bad bets (-EV)



Two points:

1) The Lederer comment applies to fantasy games. You don't have to win the majority of contests to be profitable.

2) The good bet/bad bet discussion also directly applies to fantasy. If your "best guess" roster is a good bet, you want to place that bet against as many different opponents as possible.

Over the "long run" you will come out ahead, but there will be days where your best guess will yield poor results. Just like my recent 0 for 19 performance.

(The NLHE poker example of this is going all in HU pre-flop with Aces. You expect to win a majority of the time, but you will lose a fair share too.)

Finally, here's a interesting documentary on the high risk of inflation we are facing. In part one, there is a hilarious exchange between Maria Bartiromo and Ben Bernanke back in 2006 (at 6:15 of the video):



Basically, I will not believe anything Bernanke says ever again.

I admit I'm a little worried about inflation right now. I went grocery shopping today, and noticed that several of my staple items were 25%-33% higher than my last trip about 10 days ago.

It might only take one minor international incident (or another hurricane) to spike oil prices and create spiraling prices of most goods. Let's hope not.