I know the CFL is in full swing, but with the launch of my new site I didn't have time to start posting picks. For those of you just joining the party, here are my self-imposed football pick rules:
-I'm allowed to pick one game each week in NFL, CFL and NCAA. All picks must be against the spread (no money line or over/under).
-I'm allowed to line shop, but must use a line available when I post my pick.
-Results are kept for the calender year (1/1-12/31).
So to kick off the new football season:
Football Pick: CFL, Hamilton @ Edmonton (-7). Ti-Cats still have a ways to go. [2009 YTD 4-2.]
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Lately, I've Been A Sad Panda
(Image ripped from Life In Pink)
Don't get me wrong, I have plenty of reason to be happy. Traffic at dailyfantasyprojections.com has been great, actually much higher than I expected to date. So far, the feedback has been very positive.
However, I launched the site amidst my worst downswing in 4+ months. It's hard to feel like a fantasy "expert" when you've recently lost a bunch of contests.
Losing streaks are always a part of it. August will be a loser, although I have 5 winning months to 3 losers. While I am still a winner for the year 2009, it's just by a hair.
I expect the upcoming football and hockey seasons to remedy any fantasy ills I might have.
On the poker front, things were moving along swimmingly until I went on a 100+ BB downswing this weekend. It just seemed like I could never connect on a flop, or complete a nut/nut draw.
While I was temporarily soul crushed, I gather this was well within the normal variance I should expect.
Having reached my volume goals for August, I'll just be playing one table for awhile, to help get my groove back.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Oh Yeah, That OTHER Thing I'm Doing....
While all the activity continues to swirl around dailyfantasyprojections.com , I have also been playing poker with semi-reckless abandon.
I am probably the most confident I've been about my LO8 game in years. I'm playing against Stars regs and holding my own. I've been above water most of the time, and I'm very profitable if you add in bonuses/rakeback.
I tried messing around with Holdem Manager (Omaha version), but it wanted me to load some 3rd party stuff on my PC, so I just took a pass. While it would be nice to know who's winning/losing at my tables, I'll just keep my own stats for now.
I actually think I'm playing better by concentrating on my aggression and paying less attention to the others at the table. In other words, being proactive vs. reactive.
I do have a rather neat spreadsheet I'm keeping. I've color coded my sessions: Green for cha-ching, red for fail, white (no color) for break-even and yellow for bizarro world - when the stats say I should have won, but lost (and vice-versa).
I have three parameters I use to categorize each session - it's not just based on dollars. It's now easy to look at the sheet and see how your overall play displays in "technicolor".
One caveat of playing this much poker is that it ties up a big chunk of my fantasy bankroll. Since I've had my ass handed to me this week on FSL, I might have to scale back a bit until football starts.
I am probably the most confident I've been about my LO8 game in years. I'm playing against Stars regs and holding my own. I've been above water most of the time, and I'm very profitable if you add in bonuses/rakeback.
I tried messing around with Holdem Manager (Omaha version), but it wanted me to load some 3rd party stuff on my PC, so I just took a pass. While it would be nice to know who's winning/losing at my tables, I'll just keep my own stats for now.
I actually think I'm playing better by concentrating on my aggression and paying less attention to the others at the table. In other words, being proactive vs. reactive.
I do have a rather neat spreadsheet I'm keeping. I've color coded my sessions: Green for cha-ching, red for fail, white (no color) for break-even and yellow for bizarro world - when the stats say I should have won, but lost (and vice-versa).
I have three parameters I use to categorize each session - it's not just based on dollars. It's now easy to look at the sheet and see how your overall play displays in "technicolor".
One caveat of playing this much poker is that it ties up a big chunk of my fantasy bankroll. Since I've had my ass handed to me this week on FSL, I might have to scale back a bit until football starts.
Monday, August 17, 2009
Introducing... dailyfantasyprojections.com
It took a long time to get to this day. Things never turn out like you first expect.
I started playing daily fantasy sports. I started winning money. I realized it was truly a game of skill (over time). I began to develop a method to pick rosters for my contests.
My biggest winning days came from a mathematical model. I applied the numbers generated to the scoring system of the contest and chose the players accordingly.
I originally decided to write a book on this strategy. While I think the book would have done well for its niche, it would not have generated enough profits to make the publishing worthwhile.
I then decided to (maybe) launch a training site for fantasy sports, similar to the many poker training sites. However, this does not help out the "lazy" end user and the business model has diminishing returns.
Finally, I realized that the best route was to sell my projections on a monthly subscription basis. This will allow casual users to be competitive with little time or effort. It will also allow hardcore users the chance to see my "picks" and act accordingly.
Subscribers will get complete access to projections: baseball, football, basketball and hockey, at all the major daily contest sites. If the sites are running contests that day, I'll have the projections up (usually a couple hours before the start time).
Building this site has been a daunting task (for me) - I haven't been able to get the subscription module to work correctly. So instead of delaying the launch, I've decided to offer dailyfantasyprojections.com FREE to everyone until week 1 of the NFL season. So enjoy the free info and please give me feedback if you have any. It should be a fun ride.
Enjoy my very first youtube video:
I started playing daily fantasy sports. I started winning money. I realized it was truly a game of skill (over time). I began to develop a method to pick rosters for my contests.
My biggest winning days came from a mathematical model. I applied the numbers generated to the scoring system of the contest and chose the players accordingly.
I originally decided to write a book on this strategy. While I think the book would have done well for its niche, it would not have generated enough profits to make the publishing worthwhile.
I then decided to (maybe) launch a training site for fantasy sports, similar to the many poker training sites. However, this does not help out the "lazy" end user and the business model has diminishing returns.
Finally, I realized that the best route was to sell my projections on a monthly subscription basis. This will allow casual users to be competitive with little time or effort. It will also allow hardcore users the chance to see my "picks" and act accordingly.
Subscribers will get complete access to projections: baseball, football, basketball and hockey, at all the major daily contest sites. If the sites are running contests that day, I'll have the projections up (usually a couple hours before the start time).
Building this site has been a daunting task (for me) - I haven't been able to get the subscription module to work correctly. So instead of delaying the launch, I've decided to offer dailyfantasyprojections.com FREE to everyone until week 1 of the NFL season. So enjoy the free info and please give me feedback if you have any. It should be a fun ride.
Enjoy my very first youtube video:
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
The Final Tease & High Frequency Trading
Busy, busy, busy.
I've been grinding every day on Stars, playing LO8. Like a certain madman, I'm break-even baby! Actually I've been winning regularly at the lower stakes - just one really bad session at the higher stakes. Very pleased with the results to date.
Still playing on FSL daily - down just a bit so far this month. I also played several days on Draftbug, but I've become somewhat disappointed with their baseball game. They are missing key players (JA Happ & Adam Lind come to mind) and their pricing is not up to date.
I may just have to wait for the other sports to kick in.
My big announcement should be coming this week. I'm really at the mercy of other people right now, and I don't want to spill the beans until everything is green lit. So sit tight a few more days.
Finally here's an interesting video on high frequency stock trading (my comments below):
Yes, you heard that right - 70% of all trades are executed by only 2% of traders. That blew me away.
It's obvious that the markets are manipulated. Not in an "ONOZ! ZOMG so rigged!" way, but there is no point for an individual investor to be in these markets, unless they are playing with their own "monopoly money".
The exchanges collecting payment for privileged access reminds me of my ebay days, when only the highest level of power seller was allowed to call up ebay and speak to an actual human!
They pushed all the little guys out (that grew their business) and it hurt them eventually. A lesson to be learned.
I've been grinding every day on Stars, playing LO8. Like a certain madman, I'm break-even baby! Actually I've been winning regularly at the lower stakes - just one really bad session at the higher stakes. Very pleased with the results to date.
Still playing on FSL daily - down just a bit so far this month. I also played several days on Draftbug, but I've become somewhat disappointed with their baseball game. They are missing key players (JA Happ & Adam Lind come to mind) and their pricing is not up to date.
I may just have to wait for the other sports to kick in.
My big announcement should be coming this week. I'm really at the mercy of other people right now, and I don't want to spill the beans until everything is green lit. So sit tight a few more days.
Finally here's an interesting video on high frequency stock trading (my comments below):
Yes, you heard that right - 70% of all trades are executed by only 2% of traders. That blew me away.
It's obvious that the markets are manipulated. Not in an "ONOZ! ZOMG so rigged!" way, but there is no point for an individual investor to be in these markets, unless they are playing with their own "monopoly money".
The exchanges collecting payment for privileged access reminds me of my ebay days, when only the highest level of power seller was allowed to call up ebay and speak to an actual human!
They pushed all the little guys out (that grew their business) and it hurt them eventually. A lesson to be learned.
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
Holy Shnikes, I Played Poker
I've been considering a return to the felt since Stars announced you could earn partial VPPs on small stakes.
Then yesterday, they offered a 50% reload bonus (code WCOOP) and that clinched it. I played two 2+ hour sessions of LO8 and I am up a bunch. (Of course, I am jinxing myself by even mentioning this. Boomswitch off, doomswitch on.)
What's great about the new VIP system is that I'm not always playing against 5+ supernova nits at each table, grinding out their monthly bread. The lower stakes are much softer - and the results show it.
We shall see if the lower stakes provide enough VPPs to make me gold VIP, but even silver will do for now. I'm keeping some good stats on how the different games pay out in VPPs.
I was a mild loser each of the first two days this week on FSL. Hopefully my swoon will end soon.
Then yesterday, they offered a 50% reload bonus (code WCOOP) and that clinched it. I played two 2+ hour sessions of LO8 and I am up a bunch. (Of course, I am jinxing myself by even mentioning this. Boomswitch off, doomswitch on.)
What's great about the new VIP system is that I'm not always playing against 5+ supernova nits at each table, grinding out their monthly bread. The lower stakes are much softer - and the results show it.
We shall see if the lower stakes provide enough VPPs to make me gold VIP, but even silver will do for now. I'm keeping some good stats on how the different games pay out in VPPs.
I was a mild loser each of the first two days this week on FSL. Hopefully my swoon will end soon.
Monday, August 03, 2009
I Still Believe
Thanks to my family coming to visit, I missed the last three days of July and ended up with a winning month. A minuscule +0.64% ROI. It's still a win!
July was a classic example of a roller coaster month. The first two weeks were gangbusters, leaving me well above +30%. However, I ended on a huge losing streak, (including four -100% days) to end up the month virtually break even.
While I have a much better grasp of FSL baseball than I did in March, it is still the highest variance game they offer, IMO.
What makes my variance even more pronounced is my style of play. I still believe that your one "best guess" is the key to victory. I don't hedge very much - usually only if there is no clear cut pitching favorite. Even then, my hitters are usually the same across the board.
This all or nothing, feast or famine approach results in some wild swings. You have to be able to handle these swings both emotionally and financially. I'm getting much better at it.
If you cannot win enough buy-ins to cover your hedging, than you are going to slowly leak money over time. You are playing "not to lose" instead of playing to win.
I see a lot of regulars leaking this way.
I will admit that there are moments of serendipity where users pick wildly different rosters and they both cash. This strategy is unlikely to produce that result often enough (and perhaps best used only in large multi contests).
So I'm sticking with my proven strategy. (It has given me three winning years plus a winning 2009 so far.) While I recently experienced a rough patch, I expect a big winner will come visit me again soon.
Here's Bubbles rapping freestyle:
July was a classic example of a roller coaster month. The first two weeks were gangbusters, leaving me well above +30%. However, I ended on a huge losing streak, (including four -100% days) to end up the month virtually break even.
While I have a much better grasp of FSL baseball than I did in March, it is still the highest variance game they offer, IMO.
What makes my variance even more pronounced is my style of play. I still believe that your one "best guess" is the key to victory. I don't hedge very much - usually only if there is no clear cut pitching favorite. Even then, my hitters are usually the same across the board.
This all or nothing, feast or famine approach results in some wild swings. You have to be able to handle these swings both emotionally and financially. I'm getting much better at it.
If you cannot win enough buy-ins to cover your hedging, than you are going to slowly leak money over time. You are playing "not to lose" instead of playing to win.
I see a lot of regulars leaking this way.
I will admit that there are moments of serendipity where users pick wildly different rosters and they both cash. This strategy is unlikely to produce that result often enough (and perhaps best used only in large multi contests).
So I'm sticking with my proven strategy. (It has given me three winning years plus a winning 2009 so far.) While I recently experienced a rough patch, I expect a big winner will come visit me again soon.
Here's Bubbles rapping freestyle:
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