I'm dealing with some personal family matters that are occupying the majority of my time. I'll probably write about it at some point.
But for now, you won't find too much going on here.
Football Picks: CFL Grey Cup, Saskatchewan vs. Montreal (-9.5). The Als are the best team by far. I hope they cover. NCAA, Miami @ South Fla. (+6.5). Big East continues to be underrated. NFL, Jaguars (+3) @ 49ers. Jacksonville is still sniffing the playoffs. [2009 YTD 19-17.]
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Mired In A Slump
Things have been pretty slow this week. I haven't found as much hockey action as I would care to play.
I've managed to whittle away my early big gains on FSL, although I am still profitable for the month.
Over on Fan Duel, I managed to put together twin 5-day losing streaks, sandwiched by a minute profit. I'm virtually assured of a losing month, barring going perfect the rest of the way.
I can't complain, it's been 3+ months since I've had significant losses on any site. You can't run good forever.
Even though I've been losing, no one has taken me up on my HU challenge. I'm not surprised.
I took last week off from football picks, I hope that doesn't cost me a winning year.
Picks: CFL, Calgary @ Saskatchewan (-3). I expect the 'Riders to make the Grey Cup game. NCAA, LSU (+4.5) @ Ole Miss. Bounce back game for the Tigers. NFL, Colts (-1) @ Ravens. Lines are huge this week, taking a coin toss. [2009 YTD 16-17.]
I've managed to whittle away my early big gains on FSL, although I am still profitable for the month.
Over on Fan Duel, I managed to put together twin 5-day losing streaks, sandwiched by a minute profit. I'm virtually assured of a losing month, barring going perfect the rest of the way.
I can't complain, it's been 3+ months since I've had significant losses on any site. You can't run good forever.
Even though I've been losing, no one has taken me up on my HU challenge. I'm not surprised.
I took last week off from football picks, I hope that doesn't cost me a winning year.
Picks: CFL, Calgary @ Saskatchewan (-3). I expect the 'Riders to make the Grey Cup game. NCAA, LSU (+4.5) @ Ole Miss. Bounce back game for the Tigers. NFL, Colts (-1) @ Ravens. Lines are huge this week, taking a coin toss. [2009 YTD 16-17.]
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Oh No. Here We Go Again.
I've been playing daily fantasy games for 3+ years, and every time a new site starts to get popular, the same "competition & fairness" issues pop up.
Over on the Fan Duel forums, the bitching and moaning has become pretty loud.
First off, we have this gem about tie contests:
You paid an specific entry fee for a contest with a specific prize. When you tie, you split the prize money. Put away your skirt and get over it.
Let me give you a poker example. We are playing a cash game (online or in a casino). We play a hand all in pre-flop, AA vs. AA. The board comes KK456 rainbow. We split the pot, and the pot is still raked.
My advice is, don't play if you don't know what you're getting into - or play the free "just for fun" games.
The second Fan Duel issue revolves around the matchup process. Apparently, some contest hogs are appearing, resulting in the same matchups over and over. The hogs sign up for dozens of $5 contests, leaving the casual users frustrated.
I do understand that it can get stale playing the same opponent over and over. But guess what? IT'S HEADS-UP PLAY! You only get one opponent. Winning players will play more. They will leverage their money as much as possible.
I look at this situation as a way to learn how to beat the "hog" long term. You know you will get action from him every night. You can try different strategies and see what works best.
Do you think the best HU poker players in the world use the exact same strategy for every opponent? Hell no, they adjust their play based upon the opponent and circumstances.
I also believe a lot of these casual users are affected by short term results. They lose a few in a row, get matched up with the same opponent again and the negative vibes start flowing. Don't be so results oriented, there will be good runs and bad.
As for the matchup process, there are a few things I think Fan Duel can do to improve the situation:
solution A - Limit the number of entries at the $5 level. Say you can only enter between 5-10 $5 contests, but you can play unlimited $10 and up. If a "hog' wants to put all their money in play, they will have to play higher.
solution B - change the matching algorithm for $5 contests. Let's say the entries break down like this:
Player 1 has 70 entries
Player 2 has 45 entries
Player 3 has 25 entries
All other players have 2 or fewer entries.
Step 1: eliminate (do not match) 25 entries for player 1 so he has the same entries as player 2.
Step 2: match 20 entries between players 1 & 2, until they have the same number of entries left as player 3.
Step 3: match entries between players 1,2,3 until they have the same number of entries as the next player, repeat as necessary, etc.
This will allow the casual user to get a truly random opponent.
Both of these solutions are simple, straightforward and easy for Fan Duel to implement.
In defense of the contest hogs I did read some posts about not getting matched up regularly at higher levels, so obviously they played lower stakes.
In summary, just man up and quit your crying. I've played on virtually every site and none of them are perfect. There are contest hogs on every site. There will be growing pains on every site.
If you have to hand pick your opponent for every contest, you're probably not good enough to beat most of the sites anyway.
Over on the Fan Duel forums, the bitching and moaning has become pretty loud.
First off, we have this gem about tie contests:
"Bad enough we gotta win 55.6% of the time just to break even, now we take it in the shorts when we tie huh? Okey-doke. See y'all 'round elsewhere."
You paid an specific entry fee for a contest with a specific prize. When you tie, you split the prize money. Put away your skirt and get over it.
Let me give you a poker example. We are playing a cash game (online or in a casino). We play a hand all in pre-flop, AA vs. AA. The board comes KK456 rainbow. We split the pot, and the pot is still raked.
My advice is, don't play if you don't know what you're getting into - or play the free "just for fun" games.
The second Fan Duel issue revolves around the matchup process. Apparently, some contest hogs are appearing, resulting in the same matchups over and over. The hogs sign up for dozens of $5 contests, leaving the casual users frustrated.
I do understand that it can get stale playing the same opponent over and over. But guess what? IT'S HEADS-UP PLAY! You only get one opponent. Winning players will play more. They will leverage their money as much as possible.
I look at this situation as a way to learn how to beat the "hog" long term. You know you will get action from him every night. You can try different strategies and see what works best.
Do you think the best HU poker players in the world use the exact same strategy for every opponent? Hell no, they adjust their play based upon the opponent and circumstances.
I also believe a lot of these casual users are affected by short term results. They lose a few in a row, get matched up with the same opponent again and the negative vibes start flowing. Don't be so results oriented, there will be good runs and bad.
As for the matchup process, there are a few things I think Fan Duel can do to improve the situation:
solution A - Limit the number of entries at the $5 level. Say you can only enter between 5-10 $5 contests, but you can play unlimited $10 and up. If a "hog' wants to put all their money in play, they will have to play higher.
solution B - change the matching algorithm for $5 contests. Let's say the entries break down like this:
Player 1 has 70 entries
Player 2 has 45 entries
Player 3 has 25 entries
All other players have 2 or fewer entries.
Step 1: eliminate (do not match) 25 entries for player 1 so he has the same entries as player 2.
Step 2: match 20 entries between players 1 & 2, until they have the same number of entries left as player 3.
Step 3: match entries between players 1,2,3 until they have the same number of entries as the next player, repeat as necessary, etc.
This will allow the casual user to get a truly random opponent.
Both of these solutions are simple, straightforward and easy for Fan Duel to implement.
In defense of the contest hogs I did read some posts about not getting matched up regularly at higher levels, so obviously they played lower stakes.
In summary, just man up and quit your crying. I've played on virtually every site and none of them are perfect. There are contest hogs on every site. There will be growing pains on every site.
If you have to hand pick your opponent for every contest, you're probably not good enough to beat most of the sites anyway.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Haterade Shower
What an extremely interesting week it's been in fantasy world. Last night I got this thrown at me in an FSL hockey contest:
So... fill in the blank. (He's mad at me and I lost the contest!) Not the first time someone has tried to tilt me in a fantasy contest.
I'm guessing he's upset that I'm a fantasy expert, yet not playing nosebleed stakes. Well, I'll tell you why I'm not playing nosebleed games right now:
1) I can't afford it. I'm not bankrolled enough to play up there.
2) It's a dumb move, UNLESS... and this is important - you know you can get consistent, repeat action at those levels.
Let's say for argument's sake I play him 3 straight nights at $107 HU. And I manage to win all three contests. Does he continue to play me? Does he start to avoid me? Does he refuse to sign up 1st for any contests? We'll never know.
Since there is no guarantee of repeat action, there is no point in risking a large portion of my bankroll on one contest.
I never said to ANYONE I was the BEST fantasy player. However, I am a winning fantasy player. I have won on ALL of the daily sites I've played on - including the (*ahem*) "unbeatable" sites. I have won every year from 2006-2009. I'm one of the only players active in all sports currently being offered on the daily sites.
I cash out my winnings and I spend them. I'm not a wealthy man and I realize that $213 fantasy contests are play money games to some folks. Believe me, I'd like to get to those games, because I think there's a lot of dead money there.
If somebody wants to set up a HU challenge across ALL the sports, I'll take anyone on at whatever stakes I can afford. And I'll gladly post the results right here, win or lose.
I actually started my daily fantasy projections site to try and raise money to reach those expensive games. I figured it would be worth it for my opponents to find out who I was likely to pick each night. Basically, I've been selling some of my edge for a price.
Speaking of daily fantasy projections, I see that FSL has decided to offer free projections for football contests. It's a good marketing tool for them.
But I think that imitation is a sincere form of flattery! (I also think you get what you pay for!)
DFP offers projections for all team sports on all the best sites, every day.
While I do think there are excellent free player ranking out there, our football projections come from full game simlulations that include all stats used in scoring - Yds, TDs, Fumbles, INTs, Sacks, Safeties, 2 pt conversions, FG distance and accuracy.
It's important to have accurate projections, because that's how you know if you're getting good value for the cap space you are using.
My projections are back by 3+ years of WINNING results and are a tremendous value for the price.
One last thing - Any player good enough to beat me consistently wouldn't be crying for a matchup. They would be quietly pleased whenever I show up (at ANY stakes).
So... fill in the blank. (He's mad at me and I lost the contest!) Not the first time someone has tried to tilt me in a fantasy contest.
I'm guessing he's upset that I'm a fantasy expert, yet not playing nosebleed stakes. Well, I'll tell you why I'm not playing nosebleed games right now:
1) I can't afford it. I'm not bankrolled enough to play up there.
2) It's a dumb move, UNLESS... and this is important - you know you can get consistent, repeat action at those levels.
Let's say for argument's sake I play him 3 straight nights at $107 HU. And I manage to win all three contests. Does he continue to play me? Does he start to avoid me? Does he refuse to sign up 1st for any contests? We'll never know.
Since there is no guarantee of repeat action, there is no point in risking a large portion of my bankroll on one contest.
I never said to ANYONE I was the BEST fantasy player. However, I am a winning fantasy player. I have won on ALL of the daily sites I've played on - including the (*ahem*) "unbeatable" sites. I have won every year from 2006-2009. I'm one of the only players active in all sports currently being offered on the daily sites.
I cash out my winnings and I spend them. I'm not a wealthy man and I realize that $213 fantasy contests are play money games to some folks. Believe me, I'd like to get to those games, because I think there's a lot of dead money there.
If somebody wants to set up a HU challenge across ALL the sports, I'll take anyone on at whatever stakes I can afford. And I'll gladly post the results right here, win or lose.
I actually started my daily fantasy projections site to try and raise money to reach those expensive games. I figured it would be worth it for my opponents to find out who I was likely to pick each night. Basically, I've been selling some of my edge for a price.
Speaking of daily fantasy projections, I see that FSL has decided to offer free projections for football contests. It's a good marketing tool for them.
But I think that imitation is a sincere form of flattery! (I also think you get what you pay for!)
DFP offers projections for all team sports on all the best sites, every day.
While I do think there are excellent free player ranking out there, our football projections come from full game simlulations that include all stats used in scoring - Yds, TDs, Fumbles, INTs, Sacks, Safeties, 2 pt conversions, FG distance and accuracy.
It's important to have accurate projections, because that's how you know if you're getting good value for the cap space you are using.
My projections are back by 3+ years of WINNING results and are a tremendous value for the price.
One last thing - Any player good enough to beat me consistently wouldn't be crying for a matchup. They would be quietly pleased whenever I show up (at ANY stakes).
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
More Auto Draft Discussion: The Endgame
I'm surprised about how much feedback I got from my previous post. I didn't realize that many of my readers were avid auto draft fans.
Well, I'm going to compare FSL and Fan Duel auto drafts. Even though they shouldn't really be compared - they are very different games.
On Fan Duel the auto draft has a flexible player list. This means you can select a player (say Kobe Bryant), and put him as you 1st choice or 18th choice (or anywhere in between). You can choose the exact order you draft each player, regardless of their position on the field.
On FSL the auto draft has a rigid player list. You make your choices at each position, but the order that the players are drafted is pre-determined.
On Fan Duel the draft order is determined by which user signs up first. Users then alternate picks until the rosters are filled. Since opponents are randomly chosen, you have a chance of picking 1st or 2nd.
On FSL the draft order is determined by total cap points of your picks. The user with the lowest cap total picks 1st. (This method is explained in FAQ of the FSL site, but it would be nice if it was included on the contest page or rules page.)
On Fan Duel, it is a slight advantage to pick 1st, but I feel this advantage is minimized by the flexibility of the draft list.
On FSL, it is a huge advantage to pick 1st (or 2nd, depending on the sport). IMO, it should be your primary objective to get the superior draft position.
The best example I can give comparing the two sites is a basketball contest, on a night when both Kobe and LeBron are playing.
On Fan Duel, if each user drafts those players first, one will get Kobe and one will get LeBron.
On FSL, the user in the 2nd draft position will get BOTH Kobe and LeBron, while player 1 will get neither.
So use your own judgement over which game fits your needs.
I prefer the Fan Duel drafts, but that's just me.
I'm pretty much done talking about this, OK?
Well, I'm going to compare FSL and Fan Duel auto drafts. Even though they shouldn't really be compared - they are very different games.
On Fan Duel the auto draft has a flexible player list. This means you can select a player (say Kobe Bryant), and put him as you 1st choice or 18th choice (or anywhere in between). You can choose the exact order you draft each player, regardless of their position on the field.
On FSL the auto draft has a rigid player list. You make your choices at each position, but the order that the players are drafted is pre-determined.
On Fan Duel the draft order is determined by which user signs up first. Users then alternate picks until the rosters are filled. Since opponents are randomly chosen, you have a chance of picking 1st or 2nd.
On FSL the draft order is determined by total cap points of your picks. The user with the lowest cap total picks 1st. (This method is explained in FAQ of the FSL site, but it would be nice if it was included on the contest page or rules page.)
On Fan Duel, it is a slight advantage to pick 1st, but I feel this advantage is minimized by the flexibility of the draft list.
On FSL, it is a huge advantage to pick 1st (or 2nd, depending on the sport). IMO, it should be your primary objective to get the superior draft position.
The best example I can give comparing the two sites is a basketball contest, on a night when both Kobe and LeBron are playing.
On Fan Duel, if each user drafts those players first, one will get Kobe and one will get LeBron.
On FSL, the user in the 2nd draft position will get BOTH Kobe and LeBron, while player 1 will get neither.
So use your own judgement over which game fits your needs.
I prefer the Fan Duel drafts, but that's just me.
I'm pretty much done talking about this, OK?
Monday, November 09, 2009
Why Auto Drafts On Fantasy Sports Live Are EXTREMELY Flawed
Let's get the results out of the way first. I had a losing Sunday. It was mostly football fail - I won 5 of 6 NASCAR events and was a slight winner in hoops. With the exception of the late games, I cashed in very few football contests.
I was going to write a strategy post (for daily fantasy projections) on auto drafts, when FSL decided to launch their version. After trying them several times, I can say this: It is NOT a true draft, because you cannot select the order you draft your players.
Even without that option, is it a fair draft? On the surface, it appears so - players take turns choosing in a snake draft fashion.
However, the order of the selections are predetermined based upon who signed up first. This is where the fairness of the draft is skewed. Let me give you some examples:
NASCAR draft: Player 1 is always guaranteed first Sprint Cup pick (i.e. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, etc.)
NBA drafts: Player 2 is guaranteed first SG (Kobe), SF (LeBron) and C (Dwight Howard).
NHL drafts: Player 1 is guaranteed first C (Crosby, Malkin, etc.) and first LW (Ovechkin).
NFL drafts: Player 1 gets first QB and first RB choices, usually the highest scoring positions.
MLB draft: Player 1 is guaranteed first P selection. This pretty much makes the auto draft not worth playing on nights when a stud pitches.
Now it's possible to get the good slot and still lose. That's just variance. I lost 3 of 4 football drafts yesterday and I picked first.
Here's the rub - if it is OBVIOUS that's it's better to be player 2, why would anyone sign up first? (or vice versa?)
IMO, Fan Duel has superior auto draft because you're allowed to select the order you choose your players. This allows you to be competitive regardless of your draft position.
Fan Duel will get all of my auto draft play from now on.
I still think FSL has a superior ranking cap game and I will continue to play those contests.
I was going to write a strategy post (for daily fantasy projections) on auto drafts, when FSL decided to launch their version. After trying them several times, I can say this: It is NOT a true draft, because you cannot select the order you draft your players.
Even without that option, is it a fair draft? On the surface, it appears so - players take turns choosing in a snake draft fashion.
However, the order of the selections are predetermined based upon who signed up first. This is where the fairness of the draft is skewed. Let me give you some examples:
NASCAR draft: Player 1 is always guaranteed first Sprint Cup pick (i.e. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, etc.)
NBA drafts: Player 2 is guaranteed first SG (Kobe), SF (LeBron) and C (Dwight Howard).
NHL drafts: Player 1 is guaranteed first C (Crosby, Malkin, etc.) and first LW (Ovechkin).
NFL drafts: Player 1 gets first QB and first RB choices, usually the highest scoring positions.
MLB draft: Player 1 is guaranteed first P selection. This pretty much makes the auto draft not worth playing on nights when a stud pitches.
Now it's possible to get the good slot and still lose. That's just variance. I lost 3 of 4 football drafts yesterday and I picked first.
Here's the rub - if it is OBVIOUS that's it's better to be player 2, why would anyone sign up first? (or vice versa?)
IMO, Fan Duel has superior auto draft because you're allowed to select the order you choose your players. This allows you to be competitive regardless of your draft position.
Fan Duel will get all of my auto draft play from now on.
I still think FSL has a superior ranking cap game and I will continue to play those contests.
Friday, November 06, 2009
Three Tablespoons Of Blah
After my big Sunday, I am wallowing in a three day losing streak.
Monday was another decent winner, but a last second meaningless "surrender" goal (it was not an empty net goal) cost me several contests on Tuesday - and I managed to avoid a winner.
Then the next few days were mostly fail. However, my huge day was on the 1st of the month, so I'm still way up in November. (Accentuate the positive.)
I experimented a little with my ranking cap picks by scouring the player pool for "value picks". I noticed Kaiseroll13 had most of the same choices. But our choices mostly didn't pan out.
While I believe it's necessary to have an obvious bargain on your roster, I think it's better for your score to pick the top (projected) performers and work your way down.
I have a busy day ahead with daily fantasy projections for basketball, hockey and football, plus a strategy post on auto draft games.
Football Picks: CFL, Calgary @ Saskatchewan (-1.5). I'm expecting the Riders to redeem themselves. NCAA, LSU (+7.5) @ Alabama. The Tide plays too many close games. NFL, Dolphins (+10.5) @ Patriots. Strictly a cover play. [2009 YTD 14-16.]
Monday was another decent winner, but a last second meaningless "surrender" goal (it was not an empty net goal) cost me several contests on Tuesday - and I managed to avoid a winner.
Then the next few days were mostly fail. However, my huge day was on the 1st of the month, so I'm still way up in November. (Accentuate the positive.)
I experimented a little with my ranking cap picks by scouring the player pool for "value picks". I noticed Kaiseroll13 had most of the same choices. But our choices mostly didn't pan out.
While I believe it's necessary to have an obvious bargain on your roster, I think it's better for your score to pick the top (projected) performers and work your way down.
I have a busy day ahead with daily fantasy projections for basketball, hockey and football, plus a strategy post on auto draft games.
Football Picks: CFL, Calgary @ Saskatchewan (-1.5). I'm expecting the Riders to redeem themselves. NCAA, LSU (+7.5) @ Alabama. The Tide plays too many close games. NFL, Dolphins (+10.5) @ Patriots. Strictly a cover play. [2009 YTD 14-16.]
Monday, November 02, 2009
Another Super Sunday
It's been a while, but I finally had a day where I clicked on all fronts. Just like last year around this time, I had a huge Sunday.
I managed to cash in 19 of 21 football contests on FSL, winning 17. I also cashed in all nine hoops contests, winning eight.
Overall I was 29 of 33 on FSL for an ROI of +209.60%. A nice bankroll boost. (It might have been even better if the NASCAR contests did not get rained out!)
On Fan Duel I swept my NBA contests and I'm on pace to win all five of my NFL duels, depending on the outcome of Monday Night Football.
I'm also in line to post another winning day on Snapdraft, although I am beginning to phase out my play on that site. (I'll discuss this more in the future.)
I don't know how often I can say this: My daily fantasy projections really work!
Finally, I won only a single football pick. I blame this on not taking any time with my choices(and it showed).
I managed to cash in 19 of 21 football contests on FSL, winning 17. I also cashed in all nine hoops contests, winning eight.
Overall I was 29 of 33 on FSL for an ROI of +209.60%. A nice bankroll boost. (It might have been even better if the NASCAR contests did not get rained out!)
On Fan Duel I swept my NBA contests and I'm on pace to win all five of my NFL duels, depending on the outcome of Monday Night Football.
I'm also in line to post another winning day on Snapdraft, although I am beginning to phase out my play on that site. (I'll discuss this more in the future.)
I don't know how often I can say this: My daily fantasy projections really work!
Finally, I won only a single football pick. I blame this on not taking any time with my choices(and it showed).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)