Vegas Trip Report Day 3: Meeting A Legend

Well, I woke up Saturday morning with a fat wallet. Again, I was up early.

Saturday was the day of the blogger tournament at Aria. I had been on the fence about playing for a variety of reasons. After my good score on Friday, I decided to pass on the tourney, figuring I was dead money. Besides, I had already cashed more in the sports book than I was likely to win.

Plus I wasn't part of a team needed to get the added bonus cash.

I scooted over to MGM right at 10 AM to look at some lines. I made a few bets and headed back to the room to freshen up before the tournament. I put on a Bills shirt so I might stand out amongst the rail birds.

I walked over the Aria, finally figuring out how to cross the strip without having to use the overpass walkways. Those things give me pretty serious vertigo - like the dude in "Body Double". (Not sure what it is, maybe the traffic moving below upsetting my balance.)

I follow a bunch of signs pointing to Aria and walk through a pretty swanky upscale mall coming out at a traffic circle. There are 3 buildings, but not one of them has a sign saying what they are. I hit the 1st one and had to walk halfway through the place before I finally see a sign saying "Aria". So now I know at least I'm in the right place.

I make it to the poker room and see the tournament in progress. I sweat the proceedings for about 5 minutes when the 1st break happens. I see a mass exodus of bloggers head for the outdoor smoking section.

I shrug my shoulders and decide to go find a drink. I grab an $11 cocktail and decide to check on a few of my bets in the Aria sports book.

I watch the end of the Clippers game and decide to head back to the poker room. I manage to catch the end of the 2nd break, and see Dr. Pauly talking to a few folks in the back.

So I decide to go back and introduce myself. Pauly greets me with a big smile, "You must be Buffalo66! It's an honor to meet you!"

"Likewise", I replied. "The honor is truly mine."

We chatted for about 5 minutes on some sports stuff and I asked where I could find a couple of bloggers. Pauly is a very charismatic, popular guy and there were other folks there needing a minute with him. I chatted with Falstaff for a few then excused myself when the tournament resumed.

Now if you ever read my original blog - the poker incarnation (long since destroyed) - Pauly was the first person to ever read & comment on my scribe. To meet that person meant a lot to me.

Also let me make an obvious prediction. Pauly will blow up one day and become big star. Although I don't think it will come in the gambling, poker or phish worlds. I just think one day he will stumble onto a big story. Fall right into it. And because he's so good at capturing a moment, a person, a collective feeling - when he tells that big story to the world, he'll become a household name.

I don't know when it will happen, but it will.

Back to my story. I left the tournament and had a couple drinks at the bar closest to the poker room. I figured if people busted out I could catch a meet & greet with them. But after two more $11 cocktails I felt I was wasting my money there, and instead decided to walk around.

I walked around the strip on a very sunny day. Nothing really caught my attention other than the mass sea of humanity. I headed back to the hotel for some dinner.

After dinner & a change of clothes I walked back to MGM for some more wagering. Saturday night in the MGM is a sight to behold. This is the night people dress up (for whatever reason) and even the hookers were in their best attire.

I was waiting for a spot to sit down when the two 20-something dudes from yesterday spotted me. "Hey, it's hockey guy!", they said. More good luck, I thought to myself.

I placed some bets and sweated the early evening games. With still the late games to go, I decided to head back to the hotel bar. I had several drinks and struck up a conversation with a fella that had a local limo business. He hit a video poker royal flush while we were at the bar, and bought several rounds.

I made it back to my room pretty buzzed.

I managed to go 6-4 on my bets Saturday, up even more. Although the day was not very profitable if you include the food & drinks.

Buffalo66 Challenge Epilogue: Blinders Concedes

Blinders emailed this week and asked if he could withdraw from the challenge. It became too time consuming for him, not to mention I was already close to clinching the overall series.

You can read his concession post here.

I just have to say two things about the challenge. First, I have the utmost respect for Blinders - he was the only one who had the stones to even take me on. He is definitely a worthy opponent.

And to all of the haters that laughed off or dismissed the challenge, I'm still here if you want to take me on. A multi-sport challenge is supposed to be difficult; that's why it's called a challenge.

With the proliferation of large field contests, I suspect the challenge will probably go the way of the dinosaur. Winning a fantasy sports donkament is the new gold standard on the daily scene.

Final results:

Baseball 7-5
Football 9-2
Hockey 2-0
Basketball 0-1

Overall 18-8

Let's Talk Salary Cap For A Minute

This is something that is really bugging me right now. The salary cap games on Fan Duel are priced very inefficiently. This means that the prices of the players do not move accurately enough to reflect their performance.

A superstar that under performs sees his price rarely fall. This also means a value pick - a low priced player having a breakout fantasy season - will see his price move slowly upwards, but not enough to accurately price his fair value.

This has two effects on the game, as I see it:

1) Makes the bargains too obvious.
2) It doesn't make the cap "tight" enough. It allows you to pick obvious bargains in conjunction with studs. In other words, you don't have to make any sacrifices or tough choices.

Now I understand they offset this inefficiency by offering a expert cap game. The problem is, none of the significant money plays that game.

I have discussed the pricing model several times - even with Kaiseroll13 & Zoobird - and they seem to think the pricing model is almost perfect. Here is an actual Zoobird excerpt from Fan Duel chat today:

"No. We've thought about it, but if the prices are TOO accurate, then there's no real advantage to being good at these games.

Imagine if an all knowing God sets the prices...he knows the exact likelihood of all possible outcomes...so the prices are all fair, and you could do just as well throwing darts as researching the games

We think we have the balance about right, but do tweak things from time to time."

No disrespect to Zoobird, but I think this argument is baloney.

If the prices WERE accurate, the skill to the game is completely intact. Not only do you have to make tougher choices, you still have to know the injuries, suspensions, lineup changes, weather, favorable matchups, etc.

I realize I'm in the minority on my view. I also realize that Fan Duel wants to make the games easy to play, as they target the newbies to grow their player base.

It's just a shame that the biggest site (currently) has a lousy salary cap.

Vegas Trip Report Day 2: Magical MGM

I was pretty beat from the travel and slept good Thursday night. I woke up early, probably because my body was still on east coast time. I grabbed some breakfast and decided to head over to the MGM sports book right at 10 AM to play some horses.

Before I went, I prepped my horse picks on my laptop. I had to write everything down on paper as my laptop wasn't allowed in the MGM. I handicapped about 8 tracks, not knowing which ones the MGM would offer.

Once I was at the book, I settled into a seat close to the cashier & the horse action. I grabbed a cup of coffee and started to look for value bets.

Two 20-something dudes were sitting behind me looking for something to bet on. They asked for some free cocktails but were rebuffed without wager tickets. I offered to give them my losing horse tickets so they could drink on the house. This may have brought me karma.

Just betting $2 win tickets, I managed to pull off 4 winners in quick succession, including a 57-1 longshot at Calder. It seems like the whole session was only 90 minutes, but I was probably there 2-3 hours.

I finished up $200 on the horses. I perused the sports selections and placed a wager on the Knicks. I hit Dr. Pauly up on twitter, hoping to meet up and sweat the game. I also placed a hockey bet.

I went back to Hooters and ate their wings for the very first time. They were very meh. I decided to chill out in the room for awhile and head back to the MGM close to 4 PM.

I wanted to get back to the MGM before the early college hoops games started, plus I knew the bloggers would be meeting there for mixed games poker. I got 2 college bets and a second NHL bet in for the evening.

I chilled out for a couple hours at the sports book sweating the games. I recognized several bloggers - BG was holding court at the far end of the book. I also pissed next to Iggy. I was going to say something to him but he looked like he was in a hurry. Pauly ended up sweating the game at IP so I never ran into him.

Despite all of the missed connections the evening was a gambler's dream. I went 5-0 in my sports bets, and combined with my horse winnings I was up several hundred dollars. After sweating out the late games I headed back to Hooters, had a couple drinks at the bar and then crashed.

It was a good day.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #26: Missed Connections

After a two week hiatus, we were finally able to resume the challenge. Attempts to get some hockey or basketball going didn't work out. Then we both had a trip to Vegas and the NFL matchup didn't happen last Sunday.

I managed to win yesterday's football contest. The final score was 95-77. Results are here.

I was surprised when I ran the projections and Carolina was the top rated defense. Trusting my number crunching, I picked them and they put up a decent score.

My intuitive value pick of David Nelson also paid off. He didn't start in place of the injured Lee Evans, but he has now caught a TD in three consecutive games.

Arian Foster was the only player to really disappoint, but apparently he was playing hurt.

This victory leaves the challenge at 18-8 in my favor, with my lead in football at 9-2.

Vegas Trip Report Day 1: The FNG

I slept in late Wednesday and stayed up through the night so I would ready to go early Thursday.

Leaving my house at 5:15 AM, I walked to the bus stop with my backpack & laptop bag. It was 12 degrees, dark and windy. I caught the 1st airport shuttle from the bus station at 6:15. Definitely a bargain for $1.75.

My first bad beat of the trip was going through security in Buffalo. The security agent motioned me to go through the scanner before I was completely free of my belt, which set off something. The agent asked me if my pockets were empty, to which I replied "Yes". However, I forgot my house keys were still in my back pocket.

Needless to say, I was pulled aside and detained for about 15 minutes, while they went through my stuff and asked me some questions. I experienced the wand & the aggressive pat down, followed by having my hands tested for explosive chemical residue. Finally, I was allowed to pass.

The flight was sold out, but that portion of the trip went smoothly. I arrived in McCarran about 11:30 AM Vegas time.

I ate lunch in the airport, took off a layer of clothes and went looking for a taxi. I arrived at my hotel (HOOTERS!) and checked in around 1 PM.

The room was clean although pretty spartan, but the bathroom was very nice. I took a long shower to wash the road off of me. After grabbing some lunch I walked across the street to the MGM.

I immediately fell in love with the MGM sports book. It's not as swanky or big as the pics online make it out to be. But it's legal wagering with everything displayed in an easy to read format.

I placed two bets and decided to walk around for a bit. I headed onto the strip towards Walgreens to stock up on some toiletries. After shopping I headed back to my room for a rest.

When it finally got dark I headed out to find the IP. I started walking in the wrong direction - I couldn't find the directions on my phone. So after about 15-20 minutes I decided to head back and catch a cab.

Arriving at the IP, I headed to the geisha bar to find out what the bloggers were up to. I settled in at the bar over by the TV, sweating the Colts. I saw several bloggers come & go while I chilled, but never interrupted their meet & greets. I honestly felt a little weird being the FNG, while these folks were having a happy reunion.

I made friends with the IP bartenders and they responded with several free drinks. Most of the bloggers went on to gamble, I stayed long enough to sweat my two bets and catch a little buzz. Once the late games were over (about 10 PM) I decided to saddle up and catch a cab back to the room.

I finished my betting 1-1 on the day, up a whopping $4.55. Unfortunately, I spent about $30 in cab rides.

I was pretty tired from my travels, and had no problem falling asleep.

System Reboot

I'm back from Vegas and have adjusted to the cold of Buffalo.

I'll write up a trip report in a week or so. 5 days is plenty of time to stay in Vegas. I didn't get to meet as many folks as I wanted to, but it was a good experience.

So now I'm struggling to determine how to best dedicate myself (and my bankroll) to the upcoming new year. There are a lot of projects I have been considering outside of the usual daily fantasy routine.

There are also several topics I need to blog about, including the difference between sharing rosters / multi-accounting / team play.

However, there's one issue I want to get out of the way: Why I chose to leave rotogrinders. I wrote Cal and Cameron with my feedback of the site, and gave reasons why I chose not to participate anymore.

In this thread, Cal decided to make some of my comments public (which I'm really not too happy about). So let's just show you what I wrote to him and put it in the proper context:

"I wish you the best of luck with your site.

[redacted portion involving possible criminal activity]

Secondly, I have tried to support the community and contribute strategy when appropriate. But all of my contributions have been met with disdain and ridicule, mostly by players who won't even play me. (Heck, every grinder ranked ABOVE me won't play me.) I'm not saying I'm right about anything, just that's it's impossible to have a civil discussion in your forums.

Finally, I understand that you are running a business. And you want your site to grow with the industry. You are hoping to market that growth to the casual player, with the lure of big one day contest prizes. These players don't care how much they pay in rake. I get all that."

The bold portion is the point I was trying to get across. Either I failed at getting the point across or he failed to understand it.

I don't care what the other players think of me. It's just a waste of my time to have every strategy post derailed by players who refuse to step up and play meaningful opponents or stakes.

A lot more to blog when time permits.

The Most Hated Man In Daily Fantasy

That's me. Although I don't completely understand why.

Someone hates me so much they harassed some dude in Maryland with a similar name to mine. That poor fella doesn't even play fantasy sports games.

I had my blogger account shut down this past weekend because some one's been trying to hack it.

And apparently I have a "personal macho agenda" because of my game selection methodology.

(According to the argument presented in that thread, no daily fantasy opponents are beatable long term? Somebody please explain it to me so I can understand.)

Look, I try not to be results oriented. My results in December are actually pretty crappy so far. But my strategies have made me money, no question. I've never said they are optimal strategies. But all of the contrary arguments presented about my strategies suggest that NOT PLAYING AT ALL is the only true method to avoid -EV.

For someone that is so despised - and someone that has the apparent methodologies of a fish - I sure have trouble getting action lately. I can only count on one opponent (and his dummy accounts) for regular contests. Higher variance, for sure.

Well, the daily fantasy market will be a utopia for the next few days while I travel to Las Vegas tomorrow. I'll be out of the contest pool for several days. Everyone can save up their hate for when I return next week.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #26: Low Tide

I won another football contest in the challenge. Final score was 105-65. Results are here.

I wasn't as confident going into Sunday, because a lot of my targeted players were in the Thursday night game. And my choice at QB, Aaron Rodgers, was playing in a cold weather game.

However, Rodgers performed as expected, with a 3 TD afternoon. Adrian Peterson also ran all over the Bills for another 3 TDs.

Even with that help, I put up a relatively low score.

Going into the Monday Night game, Blinders needed about 60 points to make it close. Unfortunately for him, the Jets were crushed.

This put the overall challenge at 18-8 in my favor. I also lead the football portion 8-2.

I'm leaving for Las Vegas Wednesday, so there will only be a football challenge this week, but hockey & hoops will resume when I return.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contests #24 & #25: Split Doubleheader

Last night in the challenge we had a rare doubleheader: A hockey contest and a basketball contest.

I managed to win the hockey contest, 20-17. Results are here. I got just enough out of my Washington & Montreal skaters to offset a poor goal tending performance. Blinders roster had a great goaltender, but little offense.

This victory put my lead in hockey at 3-0.

We also had our first basketball tilt. Blinders won 253-242. Results are here.

This wasn't as close as the score might seem. I did benefit from a triple OT game in NJ, with 3 players on my roster. But very poor nights from Augustine (foul trouble) and Nowitzki (limited minutes in blowout) left me on the short end.

This gives Blinders the hoops lead at 1-0.

However, I retain the overall lead at 17-8. I need just 8 more wins to clinch the series outright.