Some Clarification & A Simple Math Lesson

I'm slowly getting back into fantasy games this week. The results have been pretty good for my meager stakes.

I got asked several variations of the same question yesterday, amongst other questions.

Simply put, I don't retract ANYTHING I've posted this week. I just felt bad about the "hater" tone of my post. That's what I regret. I stand behind my words, even though they were poorly chosen.

And for the record, no one has asked/requested me to post anything or retract anything.

Now, onto the math lesson for today.

Question: How does one player win (earn) $3600 in prizes on Fan Duel in one week? This assumes the player does not play autodraft or multi-player contests.

In the cleanest, quickest example, he plays three $100 contests every day of the week for a total of 21 contests.

He wins 20 of those 21 contests for $180 each. 20 x $180 = $3600.

Winning 20 of 21 = win rate of 95.2%. (Unrealistic and unsustainable, even for a week. But this is just a hypothetical example.)

Assuming the player didn't play just the $100 games, he would still need the 95.2% win rate if he played just $300 in entry fees every day.

Now let's look at the same problem from an accurate win rate perspective.

IMO the top 5% of daily fantasy player have a lifetime HU win rate over 60%. Over a 4 year sample size, very few players would make the cut.

Plugging in the 60% win rate to our beginning example, the player now needs 33.33 $100 entries to win 20 prizes of $180.

He now needs $3333 in entry fees to win $3600, for a profit of $267. For the week.

Remember, this scenario also assumes there is enough TRAFFIC on Fan Duel for the player to get all of his contests entries in one week.

I'm not speculating anything here, just pointing out the math. It's a hypothetical example.

Anything could happen in a week, I guess.

Apparently I Am A Horrible, Horrible Person.

Regret.

I kind of feel like Jerry McGuire after he wrote and printed his "mission statement".

Not my most well thought out post. I hated on Kaiseroll13 and I deserve to be hated for it.

FWIW, I never disputed Kaiser's results. There is no question in my mind he is the best daily fantasy player out there. He is a good dude. (And if he is giving out his name & likeness for free - he should definitely get himself an decent agent!)

Also, Fan Duel is still my favorite place to play daily games. The people that run the site are good folks and have been good to me.

While I wondered aloud about the relationship between Kaiser & FD, it's really none of my business.

So I will keep my wild speculation to myself.

While most readers won't believe this, I have no desire to be on any leaderboards. I think the leaderboards & chat boxes are very detrimental to getting regular action in daily games.

We now return to my tilted, irrelevant existance.

At least I gave myself a reason to post again on a regular basis.

Dear Fan Duel & Kaiseroll13...

Wow, this has been the longest I've neglected my blog, I think ever.

But I think I finally have something to blog about, not just personal stuff.

It looks like Kaiseroll13 is a paid endorser of Fan Duel, based upon the banners I've found. (Refresh enough times, it will come up.)

And he's published too, according to his twitter feed.

Awesome. I'm glad there is a "daily fantasy pro" out there. I've never put up those dollar amounts.

Yet, a few questions remain.

First, who gave all of that action to Kaiser. And do those winnings include pushes (AKA tie games)?

You see, while I have been dormant in daily fantasy contests, I have always recruited new players. And through my projections website, I have always offered 1-on-1 support to all of my subscribers.

I have a few players whom I've counseled that have played Kaiser this baseball season on Fan Duel. In our collective experience - which includes me reviewing the games played against Kaiser - He has ALWAYS had an identical roster to the user ID "julielover" on games played against my subscribers. There are two other accounts I feel are similar duplicates, but I don't have enough data to make them statistically significant.

Also, Kaiser has never been logged in on Fan Duel at the same time as julielover (as long as I have been tracking both accounts online).

Given my horrible detective skills:

1) Best case scenario: Kaiser is giving his picks away to julielover, either to help "jl" win money, or to get more action by multiaccounting.

2) Worst case scenario: Kaiser (And Fan Duel, since they endorse each other) is using the INDENTICAL ROSTER, SPLIT PRIZE rule to inflate Kaiser's winning totals. It's not uncommon for endorsed pros to get 100% rakeback - so Kaiser can throw tons of entries online - and end up matching up with dozens of identical entries through his friend's accounts.

It would also explain why Kaiser doesn't play many autodraft games (if any), where there can be no identical rosters.

Bottom line, I call SOME shenanigans.

If Kaiser was THAT good, he would be killing Draft Zone and Snapdraft. To my knowledge he's not playing those sites - 'cause if he was, he's not winning there.

Even if he put up 5% of his Fan Duel numbers, he would be on the leaderboards elsewhere.

Am I wrong here? Smells funny to me.

Quick Reflection

This is an extremely busy month: closing on a house, moving to a new apartment and the art festival is coming soon to the restaurant.

I just came to the realization that I crossed two things off my bucket list last month:

1) Owned and operated my very own food service establishment.
2) Owned and operated my very own motor scooter.

These are not earth shattering developments, but both are things I thought would have passed me by for good (at this point in my life).

I guess you're never too old too be a little foolish. Sometimes foolish in a good way.

More blogging when I can.