Finally, Daily Fantasy Projections Is Back!

I've deliberated long and hard on what to do with my Daily Fantasy Projections web site.

At one point I almost sold the site and domains.

I considered shutting it down because I thought it gave too much of my edge away.

I also felt I was giving away my information at a very steep discount.

So after thinking about things all summer long, I've decided to relaunch my service with some new twists:

1) Projections will be delivered via email. I will post after-the-fact projections on the web site for the public to see. The free projections will be rankings only, no numerical data.

2) I'm offering SEASON SUBSCRIPTIONS ONLY. The season subs are a la carte, meaning you can get one site of your choice or order all the sites for your sport. I've also added Draft Zone to the projections.

3) SUBSCRIPTIONS WILL ONLY BE OFFERED FOR THE 1st MONTH OF THE SEASON. This has a dual purpose: To ensure subscribers get value for their purchase and that focus is on providing the information (instead of drumming up sales).

For football I'm offering subscriptions through the first two weeks. I'll pull the offerings right before week 3 begins.

I expect the other sports will be offered through the first 30 days of the regular season.

Now it may seem like DFP just got more expensive, but it is still a great value. Single site football subs are priced at less than $5/week and the all-inclusive sub is priced at less than $7.50/week. Of course, this includes my email support to all subscribers.

I'm looking forward to football season and I hope to post another winning year!

Trying To Update...

Life has gotten in the way of my virtual existence lately.

I've had a messy plumbing problem in my apartment, which has not been resolved.

My personal facebook was hacked, I believe through my Blackberry. I have decided to end my relationship with facebook.

My re-launch of daily fantasy projections has stalled due to tech issues and scheduling conflicts. Expect an announcement soon (for a football launch).

And somehow I've managed to get sick amongst the 80 degree weather we continue to have here in Buffalo. I don't feel like working much in my current state.

Still, I am plugging away, doing what I can under these circumstances.

When something mildly exciting happens, I'll let you know.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #7: Thumped

This writeup will be short and sweet, because it wasn't much of a contest.

Blinders crushed me 31-11. Results are here.

Halladay was far and away the favorite pitcher to get a win last night. However, after running my projections, Jon Lester predicted to have a better score.

So I swapped Halladay for Lester, with disastrous results. Lester had the worst outing of his career, giving up 9 runs in just two full innings.

Lester tallied -6 while Halladay cruised to a 19 point score. The 25 point difference was more than the final deficit.

I suppose I was due for a clunker after winning 5 in a row. The series now stands at 5-2 in my favor.

Everything You Wanted To Know About Daily Fantasy But Were Afraid To Ask

With a little lull in the Buffalo66 Challenge, I decided to write up a little primer on some of the things rarely discussed in the daily fantasy world.

Just remember that my views are based on personal experience. You are welcome to disagree, if that's your thing.

So is this daily fantasy thing legal? It's gambling, right?

It seems like it's gambling, but legally, it's not. Thanks to an exemption included in the UGIEA portion of the Safe Ports Act of 2006, fantasy sports contests are legally considered a game of skill (providing the contests meet certain criteria).

There are a few places in North America where these contests are outlawed, so check your favorite fantasy site to see which states are fantasy "haters".

Is it REALLY a game of skill?

Yes, it really is. Especially over the long term. You can have bad luck on any given night - a QB gets injured on the first play, etc. But the players that win over a multi-year sample size are just better at daily fantasy than the majority of their opponents.

So the best daily fantasy players are the ones with the best information?

This is NOT true. It's definitely important to have good information, but that is only a portion of a winning strategy.

The best players also understand the rules better than their opponents. Knowing how the game is scored may sound obvious, but it's necessary to really pick a winning roster.

Equally important is game selection. Choosing contests that are winnable and offer either reduced rake or overlays. How you spend your fantasy money is just as serious a strategy as how you win your fantasy money.

If I want to win the most money, I should play the biggest games, right?

Wrong! Winning at daily fantasy is about PROFIT, not prize money. Here's a great example:

If I play an $11 3-player contest to win $30, I am risking $11 to win $19. If I play a $22 heads-up contest to win $40, I am risking $22 to win $18. Which do you think is the better proposition?

(I realize that the 3-way contest involves beating 2 opponents, but a good fantasy player will win enough of these to be profitable.)

I see you mention reduced rake. Is it possible to beat the rake long term?

The answer is YES. Now I don't care how good you are, at some point you will have a prolonged losing streak. (I'm talking a multi-month losing streak.)

When you gaze upon one of these long downswings and realize all of the rake you paid, it can seem like that's the difference between being stuck or unstuck. But the true winners always conquer the vig by practicing good bankroll management & sound strategies.

My best advice to combat the rake is to shop the sites for the lowest juice & take advantage of bonuses and affiliate programs.


So how much bankroll should I have?

I've always followed a 20 buy-in rule for heads-up contests. For example, if I want to play $10 contests, I would keep an available bankroll of $200.

Multi-player contests are trickier to gauge. If you enter a 5-player, you need to win 1 of 4 times to be profitable. To combat the variance, I would use a minimum of 4*(10 buy-ins) or 40 buy-ins. So to play $5 5-player multis, I would recommend a bankroll of $200.

That may seem like a lot for $5 games, but it is easy to have a long losing streak when you play so many opponents at once.

So you seem to know how to make money at this. How much can you REALLY make in a year?

Right now, that answer to that question is not too much. I would guess the best daily player out there could make $25-30k PROFIT annually, not counting any affiliate income. And that lucky player would have to run like GOD for 12 months straight, even with an unlimited bankroll.

The biggest obstacle to making huge money is the daily sites have very small traffic. You might clean up on one site in a month, but then the traffic stops or slows way down.

People don't want to play you anymore or they've gone busto and have no more bankroll.

So why do you bother with all of this if the profit potential is limited?

First off, it's not always going to be that way. Eventually someone will market their site correctly and daily fantasy will go mainstream.

Secondly, if you look at how much time it takes to play a contest - minutes to set it up - your hourly income potential is off the charts. If you did all the work to play one contest seriously, it only takes a few more minutes to play 20 more.

So what's it going to take to be a true baller at daily fantasy?

You mean besides owning a pimped out ghost whip?

It will really take consistent action at high stakes. This is the most frustrating aspect for me.

I can get $100-$200 games in baseball right now, but only one or two of those players will give me any action back in hockey or NASCAR at those stakes. When I know I can get regular action across all sports at those stakes, then I think the chance for someone to profit six figures has arrived.

I've had a standing offer on this blog to take anyone on up to $213, as long as they give me action 50 times across several sports.

What did I forget to ask?

I don't know, I can't read minds. Put it in the comments.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #6: A Little Bit Of Everything

It was a crazy Sunday, to say the least.

We almost didn't have a contest. I sent Blinders the wrong link to the matchup on Fan Duel.

Blinders emailed me around 12:30 saying the link didn't work. I emailed him back the correct link and offered to put up a public entry if there were still problems.

I also tried to contact him in the Fan Duel chat room.

At 12:59 Blinders emailed me saying there wasn't enough time and he wanted to reschedule. Then suddenly, he changed his mind. "If I can decide on a roster quick enough then we'll go", he said.

So the contest was on.

I thought he made a wise decision to matchup because I made a bush league ROOKIE MISTAKE. I didn't check to see if Alex Rios was starting. I checked for Konerko and Alexei Ramirez, but for some reason I just assumed Rios was starting.

This was even more hurtful than usual because we were playing the expert cap game. Rios took up a lot of salary.

My bad day got even worse, when my starting pitcher Vincente Padilla got torched for 8 runs in only 4 innings. He put up an awful -2, while Hellickson notched 17 points for Blinders.

At this point I just assumed my goose was cooked, so I decided to play a poker tournament. (Which took 3 hours. And yes, I cashed.)

After dinner I went for drinks at the corner bar. I noticed on TV that two of my guys hit HR's. I thought little of it, figuring I would write this contest up as a lopsided affair.

Well, I get home to discover I had actually won the contest, 25-21! Konerko and Tulowitzki totalled 19 points, wiping out my deficit. My remaining players outscored Blinders roster by 4 points.

I feel somewhat sheepish about my win, because I feel Blinders had to make his picks under duress of time constraints. Personally, I would have my roster ready regardless of when the matchup occurred, but I can't fault Blinders at all under the circumstances.

I've decided to give Blinders my next turn in the challenge, meaning he can pick the next 3 consecutive baseball dates.

The challenge currently sits at 5-1 in my favor.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #5: The Results Are In...

There was a snafu on the Fan Duel site last night that disabled the live scoring. So I had to keep score on a pad of paper - just like the old days when we played Yahtzee or Gin Rummy.

I just wanted the results to be official before posting them here.

When I saw the rosters I was very surprised Blinders took James Shields. I didn't have him projected very high and we usually make similar choices.

I also went back and forth on Posada & Cano, as the Yankee game was facing adverse weather. I decided to take both of them over their backup choices.

Brett Myers gave me a solid 13 points in a no decision, while Shields put up only 3 in a poor outing.

We both had Pujols who totaled 10 points, including a HR.

Blinders made the surprise value pick of Mike Stanton. With 2 HR's and a double, Stanton tallied 14 points.

With the Yankees and White Sox both in a rain delay, we traded one point leads a few times as Vernon Wells put up 3 for me and Pat Burrell added 3 for Blinders.

However, the White Sox resumed and Alexei Ramirez hit a solo HR to finally give me a cushion.

Blinders' roster finished and I had a lead of 46-41. The Yankees resumed after midnight, adding a strikeout to my total, making the final score 45-41.

I'm now leading the baseball portion of the challenge 4-1, with contest #6 on Sunday.

It's Not All Sunshine And Lollipops Over Here

While things have been going good in the Buffalo66 Challenge, I took some time to review my fantasy play for this year.

It's not very pretty.

Basically, I'm resigned to the fact I'm going to have a losing baseball season over at Fan Duel. There's just not enough time left in the season to get out of the hole. Besides, I'd rather allocate my resources for my more profitable sports.

There are several reasons for my swoon this year:

-Baseball is the highest variance sport, without question.
-The competition gets better every year, without question.
-Awful month of April (as usual).
-Took May & June off to start my restaurant venture.
-Awful July (which is unusual). Maybe I was rusty.

In August I've tried a multi only strategy, needing only a win rate of 25% to be profitable. So far, I'm only winning 1 of 8 (12.5%), but it is a small sample size.

I prefer to play autopick contests but they are not well suited to baseball, because you only pick 2 deep at each position. Only on days with 2 clear cut choices at P does it get interesting.

The soft salary cap at FD doesn't help matters either. (I do understand they are now offering tighter cap games.)

It's no coincidence that when I was crushing FD hockey last season everyone complained the cap was too tight.

Now I have been winning at FSL since my return to daily fantasy. And there is a good chance I'll still end baseball season profitable overall. But Fan Duel has semi-crushed my soul this summer.

Perhaps I was running above expectation for the last 3 years. So simply put, "I was due" for some long term run bad.

I'll still play some FD baseball (including the challenge), but I'm really looking forward to the fall.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #4: Last Minute Choices

Well, after a crazy day I managed to win another baseball contest.

The final score was 37-21. Results are here.

After running my projections, I checked the weather at 12:15 for any rain out issues. Every game showed a window of opportunity to at least become official.

The Florida Marlins had a great matchup against the Cardinals. Logan Morrison was a super value pick, batting 3rd with a price of $2,100. This also allowed me to load up on Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, both the top projected hitters at their position today.

At the last minute before the contest was to start, I substituted Casey Blake for Jeff Baker. Although I knew Baker was playing (batting 2nd), Blake was projected much higher against Washington.

Well, the Florida game rained out and Casey Blake got the day off. In other words, I lost 50% of my offense (4 out of 8 batters).

When I got a chance to see our matchup, I was a little worried when we both chose the same pitcher. This meant more emphasis on offensive scoring. We also both had Joe Mauer at catcher.

Blinders got a quick 2 point lead on Vernon Wells hit. However, the WHITE HOT Carlos Gonzalez hit a 2-run HR in the first inning. I jumped out to a quick 8-3 lead and never looked back.

Car-Go saved my bacon by putting up 15 points - almost my complete margin of victory.

I was kicking myself for replacing Baker because he went on to hit a solo HR in the game.

(I also killed myself in all of the Fan Duel multis with my 3 Marlins... finishing 2nd in each contest.)

Once the early games were over, the majority of our batter scores were locked in. With only the pitcher to go, the outcome was settled.

So now the challenge sits at 3-1 in my favor, with Blinders selecting the next date.

Thoughts On The Challenge (So Far)

The folks over at Rotogrinders wanted to ask me some questions about the Buffalo66 Challenge, so I took some time to reflect on what it all means.

Cliff notes: Not much, really.

The original idea behind the challenge was to get regular action, hopefully at high stakes. I was willing to play my "weaker" sports in exchange for getting action in my wheelhouse (hockey/nascar/autopick).

Blinders thinks we are playing for some sort of world championship, which I refute completely. Win or lose, there is no one else out there playing 5+ sports regularly with better results than me.

If I were to play a multi-sport challenge worthy of a "world title", it would include:

-Higher stakes (at least $100 per contest)
-More total contests (probably 100)
-A minimum of 5 sports in the challenge
-Multiple contests on the same day (i.e. both an NFL & NBA contest on a Sunday)
-Autopick contests (IMO, the most skill based daily fantasy contests.)

Now, I have to give Blinders props for accepting the challenge. I acquiesced to most of his terms, mainly because I wanted the action so badly.

As for handicapping the current challenge, I really like my chances, even though the all salary cap format is pretty high variance. Knowing basketball is my weakest sport - If I can go 7-5 in the other three disciplines, then I'll only need 4 hoops wins to clinch the series.

I expect baseball contest #4 to take place this weekend.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #3: Creeping Ahead

I managed to win the latest contest in the challenge.

The result was 32-30. Details here.

I thought this contest was going to be another walk in the park. I jumped out to a 10 point lead on a Vernon Wells HR.

However, homers from BJ Upton and Bautista had me looking at a 10 point deficit very quickly.

Then, Jaime Garcia gave up 5 runs in the 2nd inning. Thanks to a key error, only 2 were earned. He gave up 2 more earned runs after being pulled.

All I needed at the time was a Colby Lewis win to seal the deal. Subsequently, adding in 3 points by Kelly Johnson, I needed 10 to tie. Lewis delivered with 12 points overall, ringing up 9 strikeouts in a losing performance.

So this leaves the series at 2-1 in my favor, deciding upon the next contest date.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #2: Poo Holes!

We're all tied up in the challenge.

I won contest #2 handily, beating Blinders 44-27. Contest results are here.

We both picked the same pitcher, not an unusual occurence in daily fantasy. I felt this gave me an advantage - I think I'm better at picking depth across all the sports.

We basically traded the lead back and forth throughout the earlier games. Neither one of us led by more than 2 points.

Finally, I managed to break though in the St. louis 5th when John Jay hit an RBI single, followed by a Pujols (yes, pronounced poo holes) 2-run homer.

This gave me a seven point lead with very few at bats left for Blinders. He would need a long ball for sure.

Matt Holliday added an inside the park HR to pretty much seal the deal. Although the Phillies went to extra innings, Ruiz and Rollins added no points.

So the challenge sits at 1-1, with Blinders deciding on the next contest date.