Did Someone Say Hockey? Hockey Projections?

With baseball heading to the playoffs, NASCAR in the chase and NFL in regular season beast mode...

Well, that's exciting enough for most people, but not me.

Hockey season is less than a week away. My favorite fantasy games are back and I'm ready to take on all the action I can get.

Now there's a way for you to share in my joy. Visit Daily Fantasy Projections and subscribe for the upcoming season's fantasy hockey projections.

I have the ONLY web site offering daily hockey projections tailored to specific contests. You'll get 8 months of projections for about 60 cents a day. That's less than the rake you pay on a $10 contest!

So check it out and subscribe before I pull this offer in a month.

In other news, we'll re-start the Buffalo66 Challenge this Sunday. I also have lots of daily fantasy and poker stuff to talk about. Stay tuned.

Bridge Jumping Is Starting To Turn Me On

Bridge jumper betting is jokingly defined as bets large enough to make you want to jump after losing.

In horse racing, it is narrowly defined as a very large show wager on a heavy favorite (e.g. 1/5). The "angle" here is that the track must pay a minimum of $2.10 on any $2 wager, regardless of the odds.

However, in sports betting, a bridge jumper is betting on a heavy moneyline favorite to win. No point spreads are involved.

I've spent a good portion of this summer (and fall) learning about value wagering, as applied to both racebooks and sportsbooks.

While I don't find it difficult to find or place a good value wager (one with +EV), the variance of those wagers can be brutal.

Example: An underdog football team that is 30% likely to win a game can be a great value bet, if the payout offered is high enough. However, you will only win that bet 30% over the long run, and the short run can be brutally negative. You might lose that bet 25 times in a row before you win it once.

The best parallel I can think of is pot odds in poker. If you have a 20% chance of making a winning hand on the next card, you will win the hand 1 of 5 tries. If the pot pays better than 5x the amount to stay in the hand, it is a good value wager.

Now if you combine a good value bet with a moneyline FAVORITE, you have the best of both worlds: A bet likely to win and payout above its true value.

I've really found college football to contain the most value for its bridge jumpers. You can often find solid favorites (above 70% to win) at -275 or less.

I've had a lot of recent success with these wagers in both baseball and football. The sample size is small, but so is the variance.

I guess we'll see if the long run is a roller coaster or a plain. (Or a plane?)

Lookee What I Can Do!

I remember sometime in the last decade this used to be a poker blog.

Maybe you can't teach old dogs new tricks, but they usually remember the old tricks.

Take a look:




In all fairness, we did chop heads-up while I had the lead (based on chip count). We were just past the 3rd break and I had about a 5k advantage.

It's so exhuasting playing these things. You really have to concentrate for long periods. I understand why the youngsters are dominating these days.

So, yay me. Maybe my recent run of bad juju is over.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #12: Goodbye Baseball

We had our last baseball contest in the challenge.

Blinders won handily, 28-6. Results are here.

There's really not much to say about this contest. My roster just stunk. I'm not taking anything away from Blinders, but it's not difficult to beat a roster that puts up only 6 points.

I managed to finish the baseball portion with a 7-5 advantage. I'm pleased with this result, because I consider baseball to be the highest variance sport with the softest cap. The result could have been wildly different depending on which days we might have changed on the schedule.

Up next is football, which is probably Blinders' strongest sport. It will start during NFL week 4.

I'm hoping we'll also get some hockey in before football wraps up. Hockey will be on the table in November, and basketball should be eligible in December.

If I'm competitive in football, I really like my chances to win the challenge outright.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #11: Eggs In One Basket

The latest episode of the challenge was a classic strategy battle.

I managed to hold on to the win 56-55. Results are here.

While this was a close contest with lots of offense, the real story lies in the roster selection.

We both had the same P-C-1B, leaving us with a 6 on 6 hitting contest.

However, Blinders whole roster contained 7 Phillies (including the pitcher). The most he could legally have is 8.

Obviously, Blinders saw the Phillies had a great matchup and wanted to exploit that.

Those of you that visit here regularly know that I disagree with this "all or nothing" strategy. It doesn't work often enough to be effective.

I have to admit it worked pretty well for Blinders. Philly scored 6 in the 1st inning, chasing the Washington starter after only one inning. Philly ended up winning 9-1.

Usually in these situations, the managers will pull most of the starting hitters to let the scrubs play in a blowout. However, all of Blinders starters played the whole game.

Basically he dodged two bullets (good relief & getting pulled) to get maximum points out of his roster.

I actually had two of MY players pulled during blowout losses.

As for the scoring, a clutch 9th inning HR by Arod gave me a 10 point lead. Tulowitzki was the only player left for Blinders. He manged to hit a 2 run HR and score 9 points, but it was one short.

This victory clinches the baseball portion for me. It's now 7-4 in my favor, with Sunday as the last baseball contest.

WPBT Vegas Bound

In what has quickly become "the year of the bucket list", I'll be in Las Vegas during the WPBT Winter Classic.

I'll be arriving Thursday and leaving Monday to get the full weekend experience.

I don't expect to be playing in the Saturday tournament. Despite the name of my blog, hold 'em gives me a rash in strange places. I'll probably play some stud with all of the other senile people in attendance.

However, I do hope to meet many of the strange, nebulous internet peeps that have influenced my life over the last seven years. (Or at least see them in action from a stalkerish distance.)

I will be betting on a lot of sports (including the ponies). So if anyone there wants to ditch poker for more of a Let It Ride experience, track me down. (Get it? "Track" me down?)

I hope all of you that read this decide to go, so I can meet you in person.

Back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #10: Almost Wasn't

I let Blinders know I wanted Sunday as my next date last Tuesday. And I sent him the matchup link early last evening.

However, we were within an hour of the start and he hadn't accepted the matchup. I received a few emails from him stating he was having trouble accessing his email.

He sent me his own created matchup link, but it was a standard cap game. I wanted to play an expert cap game. My choice, my game.

Somehow, I was able to get my link to him and we were able to play.

Once the duel began, it was pretty one-sided. I won the contest 54-27. Results are here.

Justin Verlander went 8 innings, striking out 11. With 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th, he secured a win (which was actually negated by a Brandon Inge 2 run HR for Blinders).

In addition, Paul Konerko homered in his first 2 at bats to give me a 25 point cushion.

Blinders had Joulys Chacin pitching for the Rockies, plus Troy Tulowitzki hitting to make up the deficit. Once Chacin left the tie game, the contest was locked up.

The series is now 6-4 in my favor. Winning one of the next two contests will give me the baseball portion outright.

I assume we will start football in either NFL week 3 or 4.

Sundays With Dr. Pauly Returns For 2010

(America's Favorite Internet Physician)

As the NFL returns to daily fantasy, "Sundays With Dr. Pauly" returns to Fantasy Sports Live.

The weekly football series is bigger than ever:

$1000 in bonus cash for all players;
$1000 in additional bonus cash for qualifying bloggers;
$500 in additional bonus cash for rotogrinders.com members.

That's a total of $2500 in added cash just for playing some fantasy football.

Visit the FSL Blog for most of the details.

If you are playing on FSL for the 1st time, use bonus code BUFFALO for a 20% bonus
on deposits up to $100.

The Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #9: Bad Beat

I caught some run bad in the challenge tonight.

Blinders won contest #9, 45-39. Results are here.

We had similar rosters, matching our pitchers and 3 hitters. This made the game 5-on-5 hitters.

Usually, I like this matchup because I think I'm better at depth.

I jumped out to an early lead with 4 strikeouts on his side.

Toronto fell behind 8-1 but the game didn't go to "scrub mode" (where the starters get pulled).

Then Jose Bautista hit a 2 run HR, putting me behind. Brad Davis retaliated with a solo shot, giving me a 3 point cushion.

After Bautista's 1st HR he came up again in the 7th, 2 outs, runner on 2nd, 1st base open. Tampa led 8-6.

99% of the world's population are intentionally walking Bautista in that situation. Instead, Tampa brings in a RH setup man and pitches to the league's best power hitter.

Yep, another 2 run HR.

So I fall behind by 5-6 points the rest of the way. The Reds choked in the 9th, giving Blinders some extra AB's for his two Pirates.

After extras I fall 6 behind. That 6 points is the difference between winning and tying - if only Bautista had been walked.

While I view this as a bad beat, it all evens out in the long run. I should NOT have won contest #6, but I did because of some garbage time HR's.

So I have lost 3 in a row. The challenge sits at 5-4 in my favor, with the next contest Sunday.

Staging Area For A New Attack

I haven't played too much fantasy this week. Recent results were mixed.

I went 0 for my last 35 baseball contests on FSL. This pretty much assures me of my 1st ever losing baseball season, although I a still a lifetime winner with a very good ROI.

However, I did go 11 for 11 last weekend in NASCAR. I was disappointed I could only get action on FSL, while there was ZERO action on Draft Zone.

I have been slowly loading up on football contests as the NFL season begins tonight. I was pretty pleased with the week 1 projections I created as they really helped produce value picks when I needed them. Season subscriptions to football projections are still available on my DFP site.

Along with NFL, NHL hockey and NBA basketball start up this fall. This will give me a better menu of fantasy games to choose from. I'm especially excited to play autopick (draft) games, as these sports are much better suited to that model.

I have been limiting my bankroll for a better part of this year, mostly because of juggling a move and some new business ventures. But I am considering unleashing a lot more bankroll and play higher stakes. (This will assume that there is action available at higher stakes - GOOD action, not that loose salary cap crap.)

So September is basically a wait and see month, hoping that a good result will give the courage & desire to attack higher stakes when hockey starts up.

Investing In The Stock Market = Gambling

(I was saving this post for a lull in my routine. A good time to post it before football starts.)

I get asked by a lot of people who find out about my fantasy play, "Isn't that gambling?"

Legally, no. But if you look at the definition of gambling, then the answer is yes.

Don't take my word for it. Jeff Ma, the former MIT blackjack team player, recently wrote a column on Huffington Post discussing the same topic.

He defines gambling as "risking something of value on an uncertain outcome for potential gain."

Now his article goes on to discuss strategies that reduce exposure to risk, such as time horizon and money management.

But he makes it very clear that investing in the market IS gambling - just as much as blackjack is gambling.

I would argue that the markets are more "rigged" for the individual investor than any poker or blackjack game. You are dealing with syndicates of investment bank and high frequency traders - who all have superior technology & access than your Aunt Betty.

I guess the point here is that fantasy sports (& sports betting) may have a stigma attached to it, but it can be just a successful investment as anything you might see on CNBC.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #8: Not Good Enough

With Blinders back from vacation, we were able to resume the challenge.

Blinders won his second in a row. The final score was 45-38. Results are here.

I wasn't really thrilled with my offensive lineup, but I didn't see much room for changes. Pretty much all of my players chipped in, except for Infante and Prado, who just seemed to mail it in versus Florida.

Meanwhile, Blinders jumped out to a 16-8 lead and never looked back. Hanley Ramirez had a big night and Carl Crawford added significant points.

I was able to cut the lead to one at 30-29 when Cole Hamels picked up the win after 7 shutout innings. But Matt Garza also picked up a win for Blinders, leaving me with slim hopes of catching up.

Without a long ball I was stuck in the 7-8 point deficit range.

One interesting note about this contest is that Blinders had 5 stolen bases. Those 10 points are more than the margin of victory.

It's so hard to project stolen bases because 98% of steals are situational. Only 1-2% of all major leaguers have the green light to steal under any circumstances.

The challenge sits at 5-3 in my favor, with Blinders picking the next date.

The "Donkamentization" Of Daily Fantasy Sports

I think I know how Phil Ivey feels. Just a little bit.

When a good poker player looks at the field of 7,000+ the the WSOP main event, they realize it's a huge luck fest. Despite playing at the peak of their skill, they will need good cards at crucial points to advance.

Meanwhile, the players who think their shot in the WSOP is a springboard to fame, glory and recognition - well, those folks are usually guaranteed dead money.

How does this relate to daily fantasy sports?

I observed the $1400 baseball contest on Fan Duel this past Monday. This was the 1st "large field" contest I've seen in quite some time.

(The only thing that made this field "large" was the fact that they allowed multiple entries per player. I don't think they would have avoided an overlay if they stuck to a one entry per contest rule.)

Don't get me wrong - I'm all for large cash prizes. However, to win a contest versus 150 opponents (rosters) you need to have a perfect night. PERFECT.

Basically, every player on your roster must provide scoring above their relative value. (I believe that's what happened for the winner. He managed to outscore all eligible entries by about 20 points.)

I know that I can pick a roster projected to put up a huge score but will not. In fact, my projections put up GOOD scores regularly, but GREAT scores rarely. The idea is that a GOOD score will win often enough HU (or small field) to be profitable.

I started daily fantasy playing at Game Day Draft which offered daily freerolls for real money (usually $5). These freerolls would get 70-250 entries regularly. I played them every day for months and I believe I cashed twice. I was close plenty of times, but one roster spot didn't perform well enough to get me there.

All in all, I feel that these large field contests are donkaments, plain and simple. I don't think they represent skill in correlation to the prize money. I think fantasy players are attracted to the "fool's gold" of the large prize.

I do think that they should limit these contests to 1 entry. Do you remember the scandal several years ago when a syndicate tried buying all of the lotto combinations in Virginia (because the jackpot was more that the total cost)? If a +EV situation occurs, I'd drop a ton of entries under those circumstances.

My daily fantasy strategies are designed for small consistent profits over the long run. I've had near perfect days where I've profited as much as 1st place did on Monday. But my winnings were spread out over dozens of contests - to help hedge risk and provide a better chance of SOME return than an all or nothing scenario.

As for the upcoming FFFC on Fan Duel - I think this really is fool's gold. Winning one week gets you a trip to Las Vegas and $250 cash, plus a 3 out of 11 chance at a big prize. 2nd place in the weekly gets you $500 cash. I would much rather have the $500 in the hand.

My suggestion for large prizes would be a steps tournament system, just like the poker sites use. You can buy in at a higher step, or begin at the bottom step and work your way up. This will guarantee large prizes and a reasonable expectation of winning.