"Beat Buffalo66" On Fantasy Sports Live

I've agreed to be involved in a new fantasy hockey promotion on Fantasy Sports Live. It's called "Beat Buffalo66" and the rules are pretty simple:

Anyone who beats my score for 3 consecutive contests wins $20 in bonus money. That's it.

You don't even need to cash in the contests to win. Just finish ahead of me. Ties do not count.

On the rare occasions that two contests run on the same night and you play both of them, only your first entry will count for the promo.

Also, bonus money is coming directly out of my account, so winning the bonus means you're taking some money right out of my pocket.

Entry for the contest is only $6.60 and hopefully we will get enough regulars to run a 10 player version.

If you haven't yet signed up for FSL, now's a great time. Use bonus code BUFFALO for a 20% sign up bonus (up to $100 deposit). They also offer a $30 bonus on a $200 deposit.

Gambling Thoughts

(Note: If you're looking for a good 10 minute read, check out Dr. Pauly's post about getting coolered and how it makes you ponder what the hell is going on inside your head.)

It's been an interesting 2011 for a punter like myself. Hot or cold, depending where you look.

I have been slaying the ponies with my value betting scheme. I've always had "good luck" with Thoroughbred racing, but now I wonder if that luck was just studying market forces and intuitively applying it to the races.

After two serious attempts at handicapping, I've finally tweaked my methods into something that should make steady income (and is completely legal in the USA).

My only bad beat with the horses is the lousy weather this month, which seems to cancel about 1/3 of the race cards every day.

Fantasy sports has been "meh" lately, after a horrible December. After my sour experience with Fan Duel, I emptied my account and moved on. I will be playing more hockey on Fantasy Sports Live and Draftstreet after the all-star break.

Sports betting has been the coldest of all since my return from Vegas. I had a horrible 2 for 10 Saturday in late December, putting me down for that month. January finds me at 26-26-1, but that makes my bankroll go down 10% because of the juice.

When it comes to betting on games, I'm different than Pauly. It's really just a mathematical exercise for me. Basically, I make my own lines. After setting my own lines, I compare them to the book. The games with the biggest discrepancy are the ones I target. I double check the teams involved to make sure nothing is disrupting their lineups or game plan - weather, suspensions, funerals, shootings, etc.

Once I make my picks/wagers, that's it. Time to move on to something else. I don't usually sweat the games unless there is little else going on.

My experience is that I've seen wins or losses come in spectacular fashion. I just don't think there's need to agonize over a wager. Once you place a wager the money is no longer yours. I view sports wagers as one of three outcomes:

1) Your pick was bad and had no chance at all of winning. This happens to everyone, even the pro bettors.

2) Your pick was solid but fell short. Your team didn't cover or lost a close one. Even though you lost money, you made the correct wager. (Hey, pocket aces don't always hold up.)

3) Your pick carries the day. You look smart. (Although sometimes your team only covered because they got lucky. Thank the appropriate gambling gods and move on.)

When I review my bets, I note the outcomes. As long as I'm not making many wagers with outcome #1... I'm good, win or lose.

Losing is still frustrating. When I lose in one area of gaming, I like to step back and concentrate on another one. It seems I have good focus in racing right now, so that is where my energy lies lately.

I enjoy dabbling in these past times, but I'm not looking for any shortcuts. Without question I'm an entrepreneur. There is inherent risk taking coursing through my veins.

Whether any of this tomfoolery amounts to anything significant remains to be seen.

Some Of You Are Starting To Catch On

I came across this thread on RG last week and I had to chuckle a bit.

Wow, people are upset with the inefficient pricing of Fan Duel cap games? Where have I heard that before?

Remember, Zoobird and Kaiseroll13 think the FD pricing is "Just about perfect." Of course they both represent the site, so there's no conflict of interest there, right?

Can you tell I'm a wee pissed at Fan Duel?

Forget the pricing issue and the ridiculous amount of team play going on. What really burns me up is the frozen roster issue that happened about 10 days ago.

The contests "started" 64 minutes before the scheduled time. All of my rosters were "placeholders", they were 3k priced fillers while I crunched my numbers needed to field a competitive team.

Why is this important? well, I have to compete with other FD users for public games in the lobby. It's first come, first served. So I just use a random roster to get the match ups, then use my real roster later.

Needless to say, I lost all of my contests, scoring zero points.

Now I understand glitches happen, but this is not the first time for this scenario on FD. If they cannot handle the volume of play correctly they should alter their offerings.

The final straw for me was how they handled the resolution. I did get refunded, but I had to jump through several hoops, including send the same information through contact form and emails THREE TIMES.

FD also promised reduced rake on large buy in contests. Hasn't happened. They also only offer a large field hockey contest once every two weeks (with a small guarantee).

I have spent well in excess of $25k in entry fees on FD. I just don't feel they have done enough to receive my continued play.

I'm involved in an upcoming promo on Fantasy Sports Live, which has a better hockey cap game IMO. I also understand Draftstreet has started offering hockey, which I might try out.

I have a lot going on outside of daily fantasy right now and I'm not exactly sure what is the best use of time. When I figure things out I'll let you know.

Why Poker And I Will Never Be Intimate Again

It happens every year.

When the new year approaches, I look at those juicy VIP rewards and think to myself, "You really could reach Palladium level VIP status."

I've played poker online every year since 2003, with moderate success. I consider myself a winning player, having cashed out more than I have deposited. I do take advantage of bonuses and rakeback, but my overall record keeping shows I am beating the game for the stakes I play. (I have limited experience in live casino poker, I'm down about $75 lifetime there.)

I've always been a fan of the "old people" games (7CS, LO8, 7CS8). These forms of poker are suited to my style of play. However, I'm experienced enough to adapt to table conditions. While lately I have been rockish, I can go LAG up in this hizzy.

I also do my best to focus. I only ONE table. I can handle more, but I want to pay attention to what my opponents are doing. I study hand histories after each session. I want to continually improve.

And this is where I hit my head against the brick wall, each and every year.

Even though I am an overall winner, I've had serious streaks of run bad. And I just can't wrap my head around them.

To paraphrase a line from (the book) "Tao of Poker": "At some point you will run better than you ever thought possible, but you will also run worse than you could ever imagine."

I just recently finished a 1500+ hand stretch of 7CS in which I never made a hand higher than a flush. This includes 5 hands of rolled up trips that never boated up. VPIP 19. I always put my money in during the right moments, but my hands never held or completed.

I know the poker experts reading this are saying, "So... ?"

The point is, I can't handle the run bad. The downswings. Perhaps it is more emotional than anything else.

The strange part is, it's ONLY poker that breaks my spirit. I can lose a sports bet without a blink of an eye. I have been getting killed in fantasy sports for a good six weeks and it's not really a big deal.

It just seems unnatural to me to lose so bad over that sample size. I'm not going tin foil hat here, I'm just saying I have trouble processing it.

In addition, poker is just too time consuming for me. To be a one-tabler and make anything significant at VIP, I would need to play nosebleeds.

Combine this with the constant cash out issues for US players and my emotional tilt from losing sessions - it's pretty obvious I need to concentrate on other activities.

So poker, it's not you - it's me. I'll call you sometime.

Value Betting Applied To Horse Racing

I’ve had reasonable success betting thoroughbred horse racing recently and decided to share my approach to the ponies.

For simplicity, I’ll just discuss straight win betting. I do not usually bet exotics (exacta, trifecta, etc.) or verticals (daily double, pick 3, etc.).

My methods are not really a system, but more of a mindset. Long gone are the days of crusty track rats pouring over charts in the DRF. In the computer age you can handicap quickly, from the comfort of your home computer.

There is so much information between software, forums, multimedia and our twitterverse that finding solid data is not time consuming.

What I’m really saying here is don’t approach horse betting as trying to pick a single winner of a race. Approach betting as a market (or perhaps a supermarket). You are looking for good buys as you walk down each aisle (or race).

Starting point: Handicap the races

The important point to take away from handicapping is you don’t need just the best horse. You need the best 3-4 horses. In my experience the average field size is 8, so I’m looking for the top half of the field. It’s good to rank your selections, although this is not explicitly necessary.

I use a software program and it spits out ranked selections almost instantly.

Step two: Understanding market conditions

Horse racing uses a pari-mutuel betting system, which means the odds can change after you place a bet. Most players hedge this risk by placing bets as close to post time as possible.

Pari-mutuel betting also means you are playing against other bettors (after the track takes their cut). Other bettors may move the odds favorably to your selections, or also unfavorably away from them.

Many players think the take out (known as the rake in poker) is too large for a bettor to overcome. It is true that the takeout for the win pool is steep (12% or more), but value betting combats this by extracting exceptional payouts for your wagers.

In other words, you don’t have to hit many winners to come out ahead.

Step three: Setting market parameters

Now that you have your selections you need to figure out when to wager them and when to pass on them.

In my personal parameters, I never bet a race when:

-There are fewer than 6 selections in the race after scratches & changes. (A combined entry – like 1 & 1A – equals one selection).
-Any one horse in the field has odds BELOW 1/1 (i.e. 4/5, 3/5, 1/9).
-Any two horses in the field have odds BELOW 2/1 (i.e. 9/5, 3/2).

The more horses in the race usually means sweeter odds for your selections. It also means more opponents to beat.

If odds drop significantly on a horse this means heavy money is playing or something else is up. I stay away from races weighted too much towards one or two selections.

I choose to bet a race when all of the above is not met and when:

-Selection A,B,C or D has odds of 10/1 or higher, bet that selection.
-If two or three of your selections are 10/1 or higher, bet them.
-If all four selections are 10/1 or higher, bet only the top three selections.

Depending on the schedule or conditions, you might go several races without placing any wagers (because the parameters are not met).

These parameters are my choice and are not set in stone. What if your top selection is going off at 9/1? That’s awful close to 10/1. Or you can play much tighter and demand 12/1 payouts. Just find your comfort zone and stick to it.

The strategy in a nutshell

You are looking for “top four” horses that pay much better than they should. They are great values, thus the term value betting.

I should mention that bankroll and variance matter. It’s not uncommon to go 20+ races without a winner. I think 300 bets should be enough to withstand a cold streak. If it’s not, you’re probably betting too much. Tighten up.

You can bet horses online legally in the USA. Not only that, but you can get rebates (also known as rakeback in poker). The standard online rebates are 3% of each wager for straight bets and 5% for exotics. You can also drink for free in many race books just by betting minimum amounts on the ponies.

Here’s one last thing to consider. If you’re betting offshore, you’re likely betting against the house using track odds. This means your bet is not going into the pari-mutuel pool, thus not moving the odds. You might get even sweeter payouts under these circumstances, especially if you’re betting big.

Very few players make consistent money at horse betting. It’s not the quantity of the wagers; it’s the quality of the wagers. Good luck at the races!

Vegas Trip Report Day 5: Realities to Memories

I woke up early Monday with really no plan of what to do until my flight left at 4:30 local time.

After getting dressed and packing I decided to find some breakfast and cash in my remaining winning tickets. As I left the casino, I was approached by an attractive woman who said, "Where are you going? Do you want some company?"

Finally. After five days in Vegas I was hit on by a hooker. At 9 AM. Outside.

I teased her a bit, asking her why she would want to have breakfast with a complete stranger. Although I found her attractive, the thought of how many cowboys she probably serviced during the night made me shudder inside.

She tried to work her game, but after our conversation I left her at the crosswalk as I headed over to MGM to cash out. So life goes on for both of us. (And I managed to go my whole trip without getting rolled. +1 for the newbie.)

I had some Starbucks & Krispy Kreme while deciding whether to place any bets before I left. You can mail in any winning tickets up to 120 days after the event finishes. Then you receive a check for your winnings.

I didn't see much to wager on, so I just finished my snack and left with my cash.

The rest of the day was pretty lame, I think I spent one day too many in Sin City.

I checked out and headed to the airport with hours to kill. I actually spent some time walking around looking for AlCantHang, as he tweeted he was at "the bar". The only problem was, which terminal? I looked through terminals B & C, so he must have been in A. Another bad beat.

The plane left 15 minutes late and arrived almost on time, touching down at midnight in Buffalo. It was snowing and 10 degrees. I caught a cab back to downtown and was glad to arrive home in one piece.

I even hit the corner bar for a cocktail before heading off to sleep. Because when I woke up, my trip was only a memory.

Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

Recent results have been less than desirable.

I just had my worst month ever on Fan Duel. Almost exactly 2x the amount of the previous worst month.

And there is a reason for the double losses - the large field tournaments. I have whiffed in 6 of the last 7 tries, with the only significant cash barely covering the entry fees. The big fields bring big variance and I've been experiencing the bad side of that.

Heads-up contests have not been going any better. Normally I would acknowledge the players who have been outstanding, but pretty much everyone has been sticking it to me for a few weeks or more. So you're all equally better than me, at least for now.

Despite my hemorrage in December I still managed to finish the year in the black on Fan Duel, thanks to my awesome run in October-November.

Over on Fantasy Sports Live things have been a little brighter, I had my 2nd most profitable year of the four I've played so far. I finished the year with three consecutive winning months.

The only problem is the traffic is waning. It's getting harder to find any hockey match ups - at any price.

As a nice start to the new year I won $300 in bonus cash for the highest cumulative football score. If that isn't proof that projection models work, I don't know what is.

With football almost over and hockey action scarce, I may concentrate more of my time to poker and sports betting. I have been playing 7 stud daily since the new year, hopefully I won't burn out too quickly.

I've dealt with some pretty brutal losing streaks before. It all turns around eventually.

Vegas Trip Report Day 4: Falling Back

I guess this is the part of the story I'm reluctant to tell. Sunday was easily my worst day in Vegas.

I woke up a little hungover, but got up in time to make my fantasy football picks. However, as I began to move around the room, I realized that somehow I managed to hurt my back.

Now I did A LOT of walking the previous two days, especially on Saturday. I even bought new walking shoes just before my trip. However, none of that seemed to help prevent the back pain I was experiencing.

My original plan was to go to Legasse's Sports Book and hang with the bloggers for a Sunday afternoon. This plan was dashed rather quickly. In fact, I couldn't even bring myself to walk across the street to MGM.

All I could really think about was falling back on the bed to relieve my sore back.

I had already placed some NFL bets on Saturday, and I saw some upcoming college basketball I wanted action on. Fortunately, there was a sports book in Hooters, so I managed to take the elevator down to the lobby and got my bets placed.

I returned to the room for some more rest, watching the Pats cruise to an easy win in snowy Chicago. I also followed the tweets of all the bloggers having a marvelous time together. I'm still disappointed about missing that event.

I grabbed a bite to eat and placed two hockey bets for the evening. After a long shower, I was feeling much better but still planned on staying at the hotel for the evening.

Since I had laid down all day, I was wide awake and well rested. I didn't really feel like catching another drunk buzz. So what else do you do when you're at a casino? You gamble, of course!

I ended up playing some slots and video poker in the lobby. I played for a couple of hours and dropped about $250. Let's just say that those -EV games are REALLY -EV. I feel stupid for playing them, and my only excuse for playing is because I was bored. I don't even feel like I got my money's worth in entertainment.

Ironically, the only slot machine I won any money on was called "Buffalo".

So I finished Sunday 3-5-1 on my sports bets, with my overall tally 15-10-1. So I was basically .500 after my 5-0 Friday.

Even with the slots losses, I'm still up a decent amount for the trip.

I headed back to my room pretty early, not sure what I was going to do for my last day in Vegas.