Why the Fan Duel FFFC Isn't Worth It

Those of you that follow my fantasy exploits know I play a lot of daily (weekly) fantasy football. And if you followed me last season, you'll remember that I chose not to participate in the FanDuel Fantasy Football Championship. There were two main reasons for this:

1) I had already booked a trip to Las Vegas, the week immediately after the finals.
2) Only the top 3 finalists won anything significant. All other finalists won only $500 for beating a field of 600+.

You also might remember that I fielded scores high enough to win a finalist seat on 3 different weekends. I'm not upset about that at all. The contest had a shitty prize structure. I chose not to participate.

Fan Duel has relaunched the FFFC with much bigger prizes. They also have much bigger traffic. And I will admit their prize structure is not as bad as last year.

However, I will not try for a finals seat in the FFFC once again. Here are my reasons:

1) Once again the finals will be in Las Vegas, where the finalist must pay taxes on his/her trip.
2) You must do marketing for Fan Duel. It is an obligation that must be fulfilled to accept any prize money. And there is no specific end to your obligation - It could run on for a year or so.
3) The rake on the FFFC qualifiers will be obscene. I know they have to recoup money to pay out the finalists, but your money will be better spent elsewhere.
4) There are so many football large field tournaments on Fan Duel, it could be argued that you can actually win more that the 2011 FFFC champion (over the course of the whole season) just by concentrating on the other events.

Now I realize there will be plenty on dead money in the FFFC weekly qualifiers, but there will be the sharks too. I'd rather take them on the the capped large field events, where I know what the maximum rake will be on each entry.

The Counter Intuitive Nature Of Handicapping Superfectas

There are many great thoroughbred handicappers out there. Heck, I don't even claim to be a good handicapper.

There is also obvious value in picking winners. By this I mean the horse that finishes 1st in a race. With many carryovers on horizontal bets, there is added value in capping the pick 4-5-6 type wagers.

However, I'm in my own little 10 cent superfecta world. Playing this vertical wager has made me money, but it takes a completely different view to be successful.

I find the average field in races I bet is 8 selections. If I'm looking to cash a superfecta, I'm not looking to pick a winner, but instead picking the top half of the field.

I'll admit my methods are rudimentary. I rank the horses on several metrics, and the top four become my choices. Sometimes it's easier to eliminate the "also rans" than it is to make that 4th selection.

I also like to pick my horses without influence of the morning line or the betting pool. If public money goes against my choices, that's OK - it will pay that much sweeter if it comes in.

Now just because you picked the best 4 horses in the field, that doesn't mean they will finish 1-4. You hope the cream rises to the top and none of your horses quit down the stretch.

Superfectas are high variance and you can go quite awhile between cashes. If you are hitting 3 of the 4 regularly, then you're probably doing something right. Just be patient and the big winners will happen.

Aside from a carryover situation, I don't think there's a better value at the track than the superfecta. You could play a ten race card for $24, which a legitimate shot to make a few hundred dollars. Just about anybody can afford that action.

Let Me Calculate That Rake For You

It amazes me that most fantasy players have absolutely no idea how much rake they are paying in daily contests. So as a favor to all of my readership, I've decided to break down the rake for you on the major sites:

Fan Duel:
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$10 to win $18 = $9 + $1 rake = 11.11% rake
$25 to win $45 = $22.50 + $2.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$50 to win $90 = $45 + $5 rake = 11.11% rake
$109 to win $200 = $100 + $9 rake = 9.00% rake
$270 to win $500 = $250 + $20 rake = 8.00% rake

Draftstreet:
$2 to win $3.40* = $1.70 + $.30 rake = 17.65% rake
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$11 to win $20 = $10 + $1 rake = 10.00% rake
$22 to win $40 = $20 + $2 rake = 10.00% rake
$55 to win $100 = $50 + $5 rake = 10.00% rake
$109 to win $200 = $100 + $9 rake = 9.00% rake
$215 to win $400 = $200 + $15 rake = 7.50% rake

Daily Joust:
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$11 to win $20 = $10 + $1 rake = 10.00% rake
$22 to win $40 = $20 + $2 rake = 10.00% rake
$55 to win $100 = $50 + $5 rake = 10.00% rake
$110 to win $200 = $100 + $10 rake = 10.00% rake

Fantasy Sports Live:
$2.70 to win $5 = $2.50 + $.20 rake = 8.00% rake
$5.40 to win $10 = $5 + $.40 rake = 8.00% rake
$10.80 to win $20 = $10 + $.80 rake = 8.00% rake
$21.60 to win $40 = $20 + $1.60 rake = 8.00% rake
$32.40 to win $60 = $30 + $2.40 rake = 8.00% rake
$54 to win $100 = $50 + $4 rake = 8.00% rake
$107 to win $200 = $100 + $7 rake = 7.00% rake
$213 to win $400 = $200 + $13 rake = 6.50% rake
$265 to win $500 = $250 + $15 rake = 6.00% rake

You can see that Fantasy Sports Live has the lowest rake by a wide margin.

So now you know how much rake you're paying. Does this change where you play or how much you play?

(*Draftstreet doesn't offer $2 HU games, but that is the percentage of rake on their $2 multi-player contests.)

Should Daily Fantasy Baseball Bother With A Salary Cap?

The salary caps for fantasy baseball seem way too soft. I'm not sure they should even bother with a cap anymore.

A friend asked me to look over his Fan Duel lineup a few nights ago. It looked something like this:

P - Stud pitcher
C - #3 hitter
1B- Cleanup hitter
2B - Cleanup hitter
SS - Cleanup hitter
3B - Cleanup hitter
LF - #3 hitter
CF - Cleanup hitter
RF - #3 hitter

Seriously? The "cap" allows you to select a stud at every position? Either the pricing is very inefficient or completely off.

DraftStreet is not much better. Even though you are required to pick 14 players for $100k, you can afford both stud pitching and an all-star lineup without having to sacrifice much of anything. Maybe one RP or one utility player.

These games should have tight pricing, making these all-star lineups obsolete. Or go in the other direction and remove the cap altogether.

Tighter caps would also eliminate the "stacked team" strategy. (I'm thrilled that strategy doesn't work in the other sports.)

This is a great example why I only play expert cap games on Fan Duel. It allows me to use my skill advantage to earn some money.

Player Transfers Are Not Needed In Daily Fantasy Sports

DraftStreet announced today that they are doing away with the player to player transfer feature.

I think this is a good trend for the industry. There are two main reasons for this:

1) It will protect users from getting their funds stolen via hackers; and
2) It will discourage prop betting between users, which is a violation of the terms of use.

As someone who has been a hacking target repeatedly, I approve of this measure. Anyone getting access to my account cannot change any account information without me knowing about it. With transfers, the money would be long gone before I could try to cancel it out.

With paypal accepted at almost every site, there is no reason players cannot use that vehicle to transfer money amongst themselves.

A Little Bit Of Run Good At The Track

I decided to play some superfectas on a lazy Saturday afternoon. I whiffed completely at Saratoga, but I did manage to bink one at Louisiana Downs:





Not a bad return for about $32 in wagers.

UPDATE: managed to have another big day Monday:



Not as juicy as Saturday, but I'll take it any day of the week.

COO Of Draftstreet Accuses Me Of Multi-Accounting

Helluva nice birthday present. Got this email today:

Hey John,

I wanted to discuss an issue we have with your DraftStreet Account. You currently have 2 accounts at the same IP address, one of which clearly recruited the other, and only one which plays in leagues. We have made the determination that these accounts belong to the same person, and this violates both our One Account Per User policy as well as our Self Recruiting policy. I will be closing your account under Maggie Sullivan, and would ask that you not create any other aliases in the future. I appreciate your cooperation and understanding in this matter, and wish you the best of luck in DraftStreet leagues moving forward.

Don't hesitate to contact me should you feel we have made in error in our determination.

Sincerely,
--
Michael R Kibort
Chief Operating Officer
Left Tackle LLC


Now, I did ask my sister to sign up for Draftstreet with the sole purpose of recruiting me. To my knowledge AT THE TIME we both signed up this was not a violation of any terms. Who knows, maybe the terms have changed. We also have not shared an IP address. In fact, we live hundreds of miles apart.

Here's my retort to DS:

Hi Michael,

I have no problem with you closing my sister's account, but these accounts have never showed up on the same IP address. We live hundreds of miles apart from each other. It is a false accusation you are making.

I asked her to sign up so she could recruit me, as I am a high volume fantasy player. I have similar deals with most of the contest sites, as I actively play and recruit other players, and I am even staking new players.

Without any commission I lose incentive to play on DS or any contest site for that matter.

I have NEVER violated the one account per user policy, but if I have violated some other terms than I certainly understand the actions you are taking.

Best of luck to you in your endeavors,

Buffalo66

So what do you think? Am I wrong here? Losing out on the commissions is not a big deal to me, the bigger deal is being accused of multi-accounting when I certainly did not.

I guess I'll stick to playing elsewhere.