Sports Betting Conundrums

February has not been a kind month. I've pretty much been assaulted on all fronts.

Fantasy sports has me winning at one site and losing at another. Horse betting has also been less successful, mostly break even after a solid January.

My sports betting has been horrid for all of 2011. After winning only 50% of my wagers in January, I've fallen off to below 48% for this month. That's not a winning rate by any standards.

Now, my sample size is small enough that I could probably dismiss it as variance, but things are more complex than just running bad.

I could try the infamous "get even" bet, but I am took much of a bankroll nit to get unstuck in one try. I would rather be in the red than busto.

I figured maybe I'd better try to get the best lines for my wagers, to help minimize the losses. In other words, find the least amount of juice for the wagers I want to make.

But being in the good old USA leaves me with the following problems:

Conundrum #1: Getting funds onto the books with the least juice is a GIANT p.i.t.a. There is no way I'm scanning all of my personal info to some unknown entity in another country. And wiring cash to some person in a far away country isn't happening either.

The only betting exchange I can access might have liquidity or cashout issues. Even though it takes about 28 days to deposit by e-check, this site has great lines for all events. However, many punters complain about liquidity for some events and the site's relationship with a slow paying book probably scares off some action.

This leaves me stuck with paying steep juice for wagering, which makes me consider dropping sports betting altogether.

Conundrum #2: I really enjoy sports betting. The whole process of combing the markets for good plays is fun.

While it's the most enjoyable of my three main activities, it's also the least profitable (so far) and the most difficult to pursue as a US resident.

In other words, move to Vegas (not happening) or do something else.

With March madness starting next week, I'll likely drop some more wagers and see how things shake out. But without decent lines to work with, I'll probably concentrate on fantasy baseball and the spring horse racing schedule.

Why Penalty Minutes Matter In Fantasy Hockey

Another rotogrinders thread that tilts me. This could become a regular feature on my blog.

Ohmsy started this thread complaining that penalty minutes (or PIMs) should not be counted as positive points. Please let me tell you why PIMs matter and why they should be counted as positive points. Three reasons:

1) It gives value to defensive players, such as checking lines & stay at home defensemen. (If you don't know those terms, please send me your user ID so I can play you in fantasy hockey tonight.) There is such a thing as a good penalty. Your player gets a minor but prevented a high percentage scoring chance, that was a good play for the team.

Fighting also creates PIMs. Fights usually happen when a team is down big, the only way to retaliate is to drop the gloves. You will hear annoucers say, "He's trying to give the team some energy", or "He's making a statement." Fights also happen after a team takes a cheap shot on an opposing star. The fighters are called enforcers because they protect the scorers.

Remove the PIMs from scoring and the only players that have value are the top 6 forwards, the QB of the power play and the starting goalie.

2) PIMs add the right amount of the variance to the game. It is VERY difficult to project PIMs. You can never tell when a misconduct or a match penalty will be called. This actually helps the newbies a bit, they can donk their way to a victory occasionally with a little help from the referee.

Again, remove the PIMs and the game is all about goal scoring, nothing else.

3) PIMs are part of the history of fantasy hockey. While fantasy hockey may be new to many of you, it actually pre-dates fantasy baseball (at least in Canada). Hockey pools were in existence long before the original rotisserie baseball league was started in the early 80's.

Removing PIMs would be like removing stolen bases from fantasy baseball. It's a traditional scoring element.

Now if you hate PIMs but still want to play fantasy hockey, you should head over to Fantasy Sports Live because the scoring minimizes penalty minutes at just 1 point per PIM.

Fantasy Sports Most Hated Man's Daytona Preview

Let's get one thing straight right now: I am the most hated man in daily fantasy sports.

I am NOT the the most feared man in daily fantasy as some have suggested. Being the "most feared" is almost counter intuitive; it implies you don't want to give me any action.

Anyone who has seen my recent fantasy results should be rushing to give me action.

I'm excited for the beginning of NASCAR this week. It's only a once a week event, so fantasy NASCAR is similar to football, except the season is 36 weeks long instead of 17.

Motor sports are a little under served in the daily fantasy scene, but Fantasy Sports Live has proven it's ability to roll out a fun & challenging game.

However, Daytona weekend has probably been the worst weekend for me if past results are any indication. Because the speeds are so high at this track, NASCAR uses restrictor plates. This reduces the horse power in all of the cars so they run very equally (and at safer speeds).

In other words, all of the cars run at full throttle in one big bunch, nose to tail. Almost inevitably, there is a big wreck wiping out a big chunk of the field.

To win fantasy contests this weekend, all of your drivers need to finish. Two or three of your drivers get caught up in a wreck, you might as well turn off the TV.

Look for the drivers who actually finish the race most often and you'll have a fighting chance to win.

So if you want to try out fantasy NASCAR on FSL, this weekend would be a great time.

Because it's going to be a luckfest, plain & simple.

I call it "Restrictor plate bingo."

2011: A Year Of Struggles?

This year has not gone exactly as planned.

I guess the biggest surprise for me this year is the struggle with my health. I hurt my back in Vegas, had the flu for most of January and recently battled a nasty infection. (No, I was not at the Playboy Mansion.)

Something vehemently disagreed with me this weekend, forcing a painful bout of vomiting and hyper active bowels. On Sunday my domicile looked like an an exorcism had just been performed. I think I dropped about 15 pounds.

I'm feeling much better, thank you.

I guess I have to come to terms with being middle-aged. In reality, I'm lucky to be this healthy today. It's a lot easier to count your blessings than to fret over what evil scenario is coming down the pike.

In fantasy I have struggled a bit too. I have already given up the bonus cash three times in the "Beat Buffalo66" promo on FSL. This week I had two goalies give up 7 goals each in ONE night. That usually happens to me about once every two years (mostly because the goalie usually gets pulled).

Now's a great time to take me on while I'm sucking it up over there.

Over on Draftstreet things have been much better. I'm liking most of the things they do on the site, they have more hockey traffic than everyone except Fan Duel after only a few weeks online.

They have the deepest rosters, efficient pricing and a flex position to help eliminate duplicate teams.

I have been most consistent playing the ponies, although I haven't done as well as last month. This is mostly due to poor weather cancelling a large chunk of the race cards, which makes it much harder to find value opportunities to bet on.

Finally, the sports betting has been pretty lousy for all of 2011, running just a tick under 50%. I may dedicate more blog space to this later on, I have some strategies I'm trying out for March Madness.

If I can stay healthy, I'm hoping to roll out some nice surprises this year. I have a couple of great projects to develop, if I have the time and energy.

Let's Lighten Things Up A Bit

I was beat down pretty good last night in fantasy hockey. It's always a magical evening when your goalie gives up seven.

Congratulations to You Better You Bet for winning the first bonus cash in the Beat Buffalo66 promo on Fantasy Sports Live. randyracer99 is also going for the bonus tonight.

I'm fighting off a respiratory infection so don't freak out if I go off the grid for a few days. I think some warmer weather would do wonders for me right now, but I'm not even up to leaving the house.

I'm really in the mood to chuckle right now. Here's one of my favorite roast clips - Gilbert Gottfried defends Joan Rivers' vagina:

(No bad language but probably NSFW)



PS - there is a longer version of this clip that also has the "cheese sandwich" joke, which is my favorite joke to tell in a bar.

Deep Thoughts: I Feel Like A Brilliant Man Who Is Incredibly Stupid

Blah. Best description I can come up with right now.

I've been trying to write this post for a few days. With a slew of snow storms hammering the northeast, depression is running high amongst the locals. I think everyone has a bout of seasonal affective disorder (or SAD for short) once a year.

The lack of sunshine and cold temps really seemed to hit me hard lately. I work from home so I can take comfort in my man cave, but you can't stay in the bio-dome forever.

However, it's not hard to overcome the winter blues by themselves. When you pile them on your other issues, then you have a nice, tall shit sandwich.

I'm not going to launch into a "woe is me" tirade, because I have a life many people would trade for in a heartbeat. For a single guy in Buffalo I'm living pretty high on the hog. I'm fortunate that I don't fall prey to needing all of the toys (or bling) to make my existence "significant".

In fact one of the few things I'm proud of is that my recent blessings of abundance haven't changed me much at all.

What I struggle with these days is my identity. I'm not sure how much of this is self-esteem related. I think it's more about what I'm involved in or engaged with at the moment.

Let's face it - most days I goof around on the Internet. I do make specific commitments to certain activities - fantasy sports, horse betting, blogging.

So when someone new asked me Friday "What do you do?", I still don't know what to say.

-I'm a professional horse player?
-Fantasy sports guru/occasional swinging dick?
-None of your goddamn business?

I usually go with the standard, "I work for myself. Internet marketing. (PAUSE) And it's not porn."

I do think my social skills suck, which may actually be the self-esteem manifesting itself.

But the fact I don't have a "go to" response pretty much shows I'm not really INVESTED in anything right now. (As I said before I know peeps that would very much like that situation.)

I feel that I'm trying to protect myself for making any mistakes with my life by NOT taking any risks (financial or otherwise).

I'm a smart guy but I feel it's stupid to do nothing significant with my life.

In other words, I'm a decision nit.