It's a favorite time of year for baseball nerds everywhere.
MLB starts up tomorrow and so does daily fantasy baseball.
If you want the best site to play your fantasy contests, visit Draftstreet now.
I have tried all of the daily sites worth playing and Draftstreet is currently the best. Why?
-14 man rosters for baseball, the deepest around. Deeper rosters = more skill, less luck.
-Your choice of daily or weekly contests.
-Your choice of salary cap or snake draft contests.
-Your choice of points or roto scoring.
-Multiple guaranteed prize pool contests each week.
-"Street Creds" rewards program. Turn your free points into entry fees! No one else offers this!
Use Draftstreet bonus code BUFFALO to get a 30% bonus on your first deposit!
If you want to play me in fantasy baseball this season, Draftstreet is where we can throw down.
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Let's Talk Player Pricing... AGAIN.
As daily fantasy sports grows and new players migrate to the contest sites, a lot of discussions happen over and over again.
I read this post of a new player's take on the industry. His point #1 about player pricing is a view shared by many players including Kaiseroll13 and Zoobird.
It tilts me to no end. I vehemently disagree. Efficient player pricing is SO important to keeping skill in salary cap games.
Every site uses a different method to price their players. They use a formula based upon player performance, popularity or both.
Also, the sites use different frequency to update their pricing. This ranges from daily updates to every 10 days or even once a season updates (LOL Snapdraft.)
The theory presented to me repeatedly is this: If players were priced perfectly & efficiently, then every team would have identical EV regardless of the players chosen, thus taking all of the skill out of the game. Every contest would become a coin flip at best, thus impossible to beat the rake.
Nice theory, but wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. WRONG.
First of all, no site has the ability to price their players to perfection. Not even Draftstreet or Draft Zone, which update every day with large price swings.
Secondly, not one contest site prices their players based upon TODAY'S expectation of performance. Everyone is priced on PAST performance or popularity, whether it's over this season, last season or recent trends.
What this means is that there is no way to remove skill from a tight, efficient salary cap. You still need to know the best matchups for tonight and pay for those players out of your cap space.
Changing the pricing often is also good for the skill element. It rewards the players who follow the pricing market regularly. Infrequent pricing changes or prices that move too slowly (I'm looking at you, Fan Duel) make the bargains way too obvious. That removes skill from the contest, IMO.
I have said all of this many times before and have been subsequently ridiculed for it by the other players. Whatever. Somebody convince me otherwise and I will give you mad props.
I read this post of a new player's take on the industry. His point #1 about player pricing is a view shared by many players including Kaiseroll13 and Zoobird.
It tilts me to no end. I vehemently disagree. Efficient player pricing is SO important to keeping skill in salary cap games.
Every site uses a different method to price their players. They use a formula based upon player performance, popularity or both.
Also, the sites use different frequency to update their pricing. This ranges from daily updates to every 10 days or even once a season updates (LOL Snapdraft.)
The theory presented to me repeatedly is this: If players were priced perfectly & efficiently, then every team would have identical EV regardless of the players chosen, thus taking all of the skill out of the game. Every contest would become a coin flip at best, thus impossible to beat the rake.
Nice theory, but wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. WRONG.
First of all, no site has the ability to price their players to perfection. Not even Draftstreet or Draft Zone, which update every day with large price swings.
Secondly, not one contest site prices their players based upon TODAY'S expectation of performance. Everyone is priced on PAST performance or popularity, whether it's over this season, last season or recent trends.
What this means is that there is no way to remove skill from a tight, efficient salary cap. You still need to know the best matchups for tonight and pay for those players out of your cap space.
Changing the pricing often is also good for the skill element. It rewards the players who follow the pricing market regularly. Infrequent pricing changes or prices that move too slowly (I'm looking at you, Fan Duel) make the bargains way too obvious. That removes skill from the contest, IMO.
I have said all of this many times before and have been subsequently ridiculed for it by the other players. Whatever. Somebody convince me otherwise and I will give you mad props.
Friday, March 25, 2011
Seeking Positive Vibes
With this recent blast of winter, I've been struggling to keep a positive tact on things.
I've had a lousy two weeks fantasy wise, mostly losing since I took 1st & 2nd in a Draftstreet GPP on the 10th. That night pretty much saved my profitability for March.
What has me worried is that April has been my worst fantasy month every year since 2007. I had considered just taking it off, but I'm going to give it a go again. I'll probably just concentrate on Draftstreet baseball as my only active sport.
The "Beat Buffalo66" promo is almost over and I have to tip my hat to the regulars who did very well against me. The level of competition is much better in recent years. Combine that with my recent struggles and you have a lot of bonuses paid out.
I knew the promo was going to cost me some money, but I gave it a try to help boost the hockey traffic at FSL. It's a shame that they can't offer some bigger field contests over there.
I did manage to make a profit betting sports this month. After a losing Jan.-Feb. I managed to hit 63% of my picks so far in March. Although I was a painful 0-2 last night, I hope to come back a bit more by the end of the month.
I'm still shopping for a viable reduced juice book. My options are very limited at the moment.
I haven't been betting horses at all recently. It was the one activity that was crowded out of my schedule. There are a lot of big races coming up, maybe I will dedicate some days after the NCAA basketball is over.
I'm also waiting for the WSOP satellites to start. I want to play stud events only, so I'm hoping the big sites will offer 7CS satellites for these events.
It just seems like life is saying, "Hurry up and wait" for something good to happen. Then again, I've handled a steady diet of disappointment pretty well, IMO.
I've had a lousy two weeks fantasy wise, mostly losing since I took 1st & 2nd in a Draftstreet GPP on the 10th. That night pretty much saved my profitability for March.
What has me worried is that April has been my worst fantasy month every year since 2007. I had considered just taking it off, but I'm going to give it a go again. I'll probably just concentrate on Draftstreet baseball as my only active sport.
The "Beat Buffalo66" promo is almost over and I have to tip my hat to the regulars who did very well against me. The level of competition is much better in recent years. Combine that with my recent struggles and you have a lot of bonuses paid out.
I knew the promo was going to cost me some money, but I gave it a try to help boost the hockey traffic at FSL. It's a shame that they can't offer some bigger field contests over there.
I did manage to make a profit betting sports this month. After a losing Jan.-Feb. I managed to hit 63% of my picks so far in March. Although I was a painful 0-2 last night, I hope to come back a bit more by the end of the month.
I'm still shopping for a viable reduced juice book. My options are very limited at the moment.
I haven't been betting horses at all recently. It was the one activity that was crowded out of my schedule. There are a lot of big races coming up, maybe I will dedicate some days after the NCAA basketball is over.
I'm also waiting for the WSOP satellites to start. I want to play stud events only, so I'm hoping the big sites will offer 7CS satellites for these events.
It just seems like life is saying, "Hurry up and wait" for something good to happen. Then again, I've handled a steady diet of disappointment pretty well, IMO.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
OT: Pleasant Diversions
This is always one of my favorite weekends of the year.
It's the peak of March madness with NCAA and NIT basketball in full swing. Lots of fun wagering goes on for nearly two straight weeks. I have been hitting 67% of my wagers in March.
It's also (post) St. Patrick's day. While I am a proud Irish man, I'm also a proud Buffalonian. The Buffalo St. Patrick's parade is the closest thing we have to a true Mardi Gras in the Nickel City. Always a fun time on Sunday especially with the parade ending in my neighborhood.
Combine this with a break in the winter weather and my first scooter ride of the season and you have a great recipe for fun.
Definitely feeling good right now. Hoping this feeling lasts through the spring.
It's the peak of March madness with NCAA and NIT basketball in full swing. Lots of fun wagering goes on for nearly two straight weeks. I have been hitting 67% of my wagers in March.
It's also (post) St. Patrick's day. While I am a proud Irish man, I'm also a proud Buffalonian. The Buffalo St. Patrick's parade is the closest thing we have to a true Mardi Gras in the Nickel City. Always a fun time on Sunday especially with the parade ending in my neighborhood.
Combine this with a break in the winter weather and my first scooter ride of the season and you have a great recipe for fun.
Definitely feeling good right now. Hoping this feeling lasts through the spring.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
NFO = No more Fanduel for Ohmsy?
In the latest drama bomb, fantasy player Ohmsy was temporarily suspended on Fan Duel for exploiting a software glitch that allowed him to access private contests.
Several months ago, he was caught multi-accounting as well, playing on "friends" accounts: bill_brasky, gatorfan89, etc. This is a direct violation of the Fan Duel TOS.
(Ohmsy, I know you think you didn't break the TOS b/c you say you didn't create those accounts. Yet still playing on them violates the TOS.)
The reason I bring up the multi-accounting is two fold:
1) It shows that this guy is pretty much a cheating bastard, willing to bend or break whatever rules exist to gain any advantage.
2) This whole problem is actually Fan Duel's fault. It's ALL on them for failing to ban this cheater the first time around.
FD better think long and hard on how to improve both security and the user experience. I refuse to put any money on their site until they show a serious effort in this regard.
Several months ago, he was caught multi-accounting as well, playing on "friends" accounts: bill_brasky, gatorfan89, etc. This is a direct violation of the Fan Duel TOS.
(Ohmsy, I know you think you didn't break the TOS b/c you say you didn't create those accounts. Yet still playing on them violates the TOS.)
The reason I bring up the multi-accounting is two fold:
1) It shows that this guy is pretty much a cheating bastard, willing to bend or break whatever rules exist to gain any advantage.
2) This whole problem is actually Fan Duel's fault. It's ALL on them for failing to ban this cheater the first time around.
FD better think long and hard on how to improve both security and the user experience. I refuse to put any money on their site until they show a serious effort in this regard.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Just A Thought On The 70 Mile $1mm Prop Bet
This has been sitting in the back of my mind for awhile.
For those of you not familiar with this bet, some friends made a wager that one person could/couldn't run 70 miles in 24 hours.
You can read the whole story (written by one of the participants) here and here.
After reading the story (and the entire 2+2 thread about it) I'm struck over one aspect: There appears to be no photographic or video evidence of the events. None before, during or after.
In our world of ubiquitous cell phones, no one snapped a photo?
If I was in on this bet either way, I would have videotaped the whole thing. For a cool million, I would review the tape to make sure no cheating occurred.
If I were the parents of Ashman, I would have videotaped the whole thing for legal reasons in case any injuries occurred.
I'm not saying he didn't run the 70 miles. It's certainly within the physical limits of a human to do it.
I'm just saying that without ANY evidence other than heresay, color me skeptical.
PS - Happy Steak & BJ Day!
For those of you not familiar with this bet, some friends made a wager that one person could/couldn't run 70 miles in 24 hours.
You can read the whole story (written by one of the participants) here and here.
After reading the story (and the entire 2+2 thread about it) I'm struck over one aspect: There appears to be no photographic or video evidence of the events. None before, during or after.
In our world of ubiquitous cell phones, no one snapped a photo?
If I was in on this bet either way, I would have videotaped the whole thing. For a cool million, I would review the tape to make sure no cheating occurred.
If I were the parents of Ashman, I would have videotaped the whole thing for legal reasons in case any injuries occurred.
I'm not saying he didn't run the 70 miles. It's certainly within the physical limits of a human to do it.
I'm just saying that without ANY evidence other than heresay, color me skeptical.
PS - Happy Steak & BJ Day!
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Where Is The Focus?
I feel like I'm second guessing myself.
I've been involved in several activities this year, but nothing has been an overwhelming success.
Besides playing ponies & fantasy sports, I've worked on developing some business projects (both on and offline.)
This year seems to be about non-happenings. I was recently offered an equity share in a daily fantasy contest site. I didn't feel it was a good fit for me - I'm not sure we shared the same long term goals.
Last year seemed to be about diversification. I was playing all of the fantasy sports, mixed games at poker, Daily Fantasy Projections and running a food service operation. I'm actually amazed I had enough energy for all of that, because I sure don't seem to these days. (Perhaps the rough winter beat me down a bit.)
Now I feel like that same diversification may be holding me back. When I was in Vegas, sports betting was a mutually exclusive activity. I wasn't doing anything else that day. Same goes for horse betting. The results were pretty good, maybe it's a concentration issue.
So I wonder if multi-sports fantasy play is good or bad for me. Should I concentrate on one sport or one site? Bankroll is not really a factor here.
What if I concentrated solely on horse racing? Should I drop all fantasy play to give me a bigger racing schedule?
Assuming there are 7CS satellites for the WSOP stud events, I'd like to take a shot or two this year. I know there are bigger donkeys than me out there pushing chips.
My number crunching tells me the rewards schedule on both horse betting and fantasy play are about equal. Coincidentally, my best profits for the year are equally split between the horses and my play on Draftstreet.
Which direction do I turn? I just need to find my focus and make things happen.
I've been involved in several activities this year, but nothing has been an overwhelming success.
Besides playing ponies & fantasy sports, I've worked on developing some business projects (both on and offline.)
This year seems to be about non-happenings. I was recently offered an equity share in a daily fantasy contest site. I didn't feel it was a good fit for me - I'm not sure we shared the same long term goals.
Last year seemed to be about diversification. I was playing all of the fantasy sports, mixed games at poker, Daily Fantasy Projections and running a food service operation. I'm actually amazed I had enough energy for all of that, because I sure don't seem to these days. (Perhaps the rough winter beat me down a bit.)
Now I feel like that same diversification may be holding me back. When I was in Vegas, sports betting was a mutually exclusive activity. I wasn't doing anything else that day. Same goes for horse betting. The results were pretty good, maybe it's a concentration issue.
So I wonder if multi-sports fantasy play is good or bad for me. Should I concentrate on one sport or one site? Bankroll is not really a factor here.
What if I concentrated solely on horse racing? Should I drop all fantasy play to give me a bigger racing schedule?
Assuming there are 7CS satellites for the WSOP stud events, I'd like to take a shot or two this year. I know there are bigger donkeys than me out there pushing chips.
My number crunching tells me the rewards schedule on both horse betting and fantasy play are about equal. Coincidentally, my best profits for the year are equally split between the horses and my play on Draftstreet.
Which direction do I turn? I just need to find my focus and make things happen.
Monday, March 07, 2011
Daily Fantasy Blogging For Money = Censorship
I see our friends over at Rotogrinders have launched blogs for their members. And if you blog enough, they will put money in your Draftstreet account.
I do find it amusing that so many members blog about Fan Duel to get money on Draftstreet.
It also makes little sense to me that RG wanted me to provide free strategy content for them, yet they pay members for user generated content which has almost no value.
Which is why I was struck by a recent blog entry by bobbyrogers46 titled, "The selling of fantasy advice and information". Finally, here's a meaty topic - One I'm interested in of course, having run Daily Fantasy Projections. The blog post inspired multiple comments, including discussion of multi-accounting, collusion and team play.
Surely this post would rise to the top of favorite blogs! Wrong. It was quickly removed. (Here is the link to the post: http://rotogrinders.com/fantasyblogs/The_Selling_of_Fantasy_Advice_and_Information-7077 ) Heaven forbid that new potential signups would find out high dollar angleshooting occurs daily at all the major sites.
It's a shame that the true small time grinders who actively discuss these topics - to try and improve their chances - get shut down if it gets the wrong message out.
It's also important to note that the highest ranked grinders (Kaiseroll13, GeneralV, Rudzia555, Primetime420) almost NEVER contribute to the site. Do you think they would want any of their secrets to get out?
(UPDATE: RG claims to have tech issues, causing blog posts to disappear. We shall see if this post returns. I will say that I've seen user content removed in the past, so my opinion of censorship over there still exists.)
I do find it amusing that so many members blog about Fan Duel to get money on Draftstreet.
It also makes little sense to me that RG wanted me to provide free strategy content for them, yet they pay members for user generated content which has almost no value.
Which is why I was struck by a recent blog entry by bobbyrogers46 titled, "The selling of fantasy advice and information". Finally, here's a meaty topic - One I'm interested in of course, having run Daily Fantasy Projections. The blog post inspired multiple comments, including discussion of multi-accounting, collusion and team play.
Surely this post would rise to the top of favorite blogs! Wrong. It was quickly removed. (Here is the link to the post: http://rotogrinders.com/fantasyblogs/The_Selling_of_Fantasy_Advice_and_Information-7077 ) Heaven forbid that new potential signups would find out high dollar angleshooting occurs daily at all the major sites.
It's a shame that the true small time grinders who actively discuss these topics - to try and improve their chances - get shut down if it gets the wrong message out.
It's also important to note that the highest ranked grinders (Kaiseroll13, GeneralV, Rudzia555, Primetime420) almost NEVER contribute to the site. Do you think they would want any of their secrets to get out?
(UPDATE: RG claims to have tech issues, causing blog posts to disappear. We shall see if this post returns. I will say that I've seen user content removed in the past, so my opinion of censorship over there still exists.)
Wednesday, March 02, 2011
More Fan Duel Ignorance (Now With Baseball)
Fan Duel announced their new "2011 season large field baseball pants party" (or whatever it's called).
Don't forget to check the rules, especially the scoring:
Hitters: 1B = 1pt, 2B = 2pts, 3B = 3pts, HR = 4pts, RBI = 1pt, R = 1pt, BB = 1pt, SB = 2pts, Out = -.25pt
Not only did they remove hitter strikeouts (-1 last year), which helped even out the value of power hitters to contact hitters...
But now SACRIFICES are worth -.25 instead of zero. When your hitter clocks a sac fly, he will earn .75 instead of 1 point. (1 for RBI -.25 for the out.)
FWIW, the pitching scoring remains unchanged. WHIP still means nothing in this game format.
Don't be fooled by the lure of big prizes into playing a game with a lousy scoring system. There might be a juicy overlay, but it will take a lot to bring me back to that site.
Don't forget to check the rules, especially the scoring:
Hitters: 1B = 1pt, 2B = 2pts, 3B = 3pts, HR = 4pts, RBI = 1pt, R = 1pt, BB = 1pt, SB = 2pts, Out = -.25pt
Not only did they remove hitter strikeouts (-1 last year), which helped even out the value of power hitters to contact hitters...
But now SACRIFICES are worth -.25 instead of zero. When your hitter clocks a sac fly, he will earn .75 instead of 1 point. (1 for RBI -.25 for the out.)
FWIW, the pitching scoring remains unchanged. WHIP still means nothing in this game format.
Don't be fooled by the lure of big prizes into playing a game with a lousy scoring system. There might be a juicy overlay, but it will take a lot to bring me back to that site.
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