There's a trend in large field daily fantasy contests of using IDENTICAL rosters. What this means is that a user will drop 2 or 3 entries using the exact same roster.
The rationale behind this strategy is that a winning (cashing) roster will produce multiple cashes. However, the flaw in this methodology is diminishing returns. The identical rosters will only chop prizes at (or below) the score achieved.
In other words, a 3x multiple entry finishing 10th would chop 10th, 11th & 12th place prizes.
In fact, the ONLY time multiple entries works out beneficially is when your identical entries take 1st place (along with the corresponding follow up prizes).
It would seem to me the players using this strategy are more confident in their ability to cash in a large field event, rather than actually win the event.
Here is how I view large field strategy (and why you shouldn't use identical entries):
-You should always enter large field events with the intention of winning them. If you drop 18 entries on an event, that should be 18 different shots at the 1st place prize. Using duplicate entries (2x each roster), you are only taking 9 shots at 1st place. While you might score a double cash sometimes, you are just padding the prize pool for the rest of us. Thank you.
-Even changing ONE player on your roster is much better than identical entries. It's most likely that changing that one player will still produce similar results as a duplicate entry. However, that one player may score enough to earn you a BETTER finish than the duplicate entry. It's much nicer to finish 9th & 7th (instead of 9th & 10th.)
The beauty of large field events is the large payoff for a small entry fee. If you are not shooting for the largest payoff with your entries, you're just donating with the duplicate entries. Think about it.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Online Poker & Sports Betting: Move Or Be Moved
There have been hundreds of blog posts about the recent changes in online poker. Most are like this: ZOMG... BLACK FRIDAY!
This isn't one of those posts.
In fact, recent online poker changes were like earning a boy scout badge. I was prepared. I had ZERO online when the site seizures occurred. (It didn't hurt that the sites had made it very difficult to deposit in 2011.)
I was planning on playing stud satellites for the WSOP. And I only planned on depositing enough to cover the entry fees (as needed.) But that plan has gone kablooey.
The blow back of the DOJ actions actually affected me most in the sports betting arena. Most of the offshore betting operators have now scaled back their deposit options. Some of the prominent operators were having their cash out checks bounce. I've read some bettors had their deposits via courier held up in customs.
Without a safe deposit mechanism, online sports betting is not a viable option for me anymore. While I still have a fairly small bankroll online, it can be used for other pursuits.
I can only see the following options for my wagering future:
-Move to (or near) Nevada. Nevada allows legal sports betting and hosts the biggest poker events in the USA. I could afford to make this move, but it would involve leaving a lot of physical & emotional baggage behind.
-Move to another country. Not likely to happen unless violent unrest begins to unfold in the USA.
-Since I'm unlikely to move myself immediately, I'm moving my activities to fantasy sports & horse betting. Both activities are explicitly legal in NY (and most of the USA). Both activities have proven profitable for me over a multi-year sample.
While I'm not sure what the best long term option is right now, I'm not going to uproot my entire life just to bet on an over/under.
This isn't one of those posts.
In fact, recent online poker changes were like earning a boy scout badge. I was prepared. I had ZERO online when the site seizures occurred. (It didn't hurt that the sites had made it very difficult to deposit in 2011.)
I was planning on playing stud satellites for the WSOP. And I only planned on depositing enough to cover the entry fees (as needed.) But that plan has gone kablooey.
The blow back of the DOJ actions actually affected me most in the sports betting arena. Most of the offshore betting operators have now scaled back their deposit options. Some of the prominent operators were having their cash out checks bounce. I've read some bettors had their deposits via courier held up in customs.
Without a safe deposit mechanism, online sports betting is not a viable option for me anymore. While I still have a fairly small bankroll online, it can be used for other pursuits.
I can only see the following options for my wagering future:
-Move to (or near) Nevada. Nevada allows legal sports betting and hosts the biggest poker events in the USA. I could afford to make this move, but it would involve leaving a lot of physical & emotional baggage behind.
-Move to another country. Not likely to happen unless violent unrest begins to unfold in the USA.
-Since I'm unlikely to move myself immediately, I'm moving my activities to fantasy sports & horse betting. Both activities are explicitly legal in NY (and most of the USA). Both activities have proven profitable for me over a multi-year sample.
While I'm not sure what the best long term option is right now, I'm not going to uproot my entire life just to bet on an over/under.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Why Head To Head Is Dead
In the past, the only way to get significant action in fantasy sports was to play heads-up against a (usually) very good opponent.
Many fantasy "experts" (I use that term VERY loosely) argued that without available game selection - meaning playing only weaker opponents - that it was IMPOSSIBLE to make a profit playing daily fantasy games.
Well, throw that whole argument out the window. It's now a moot point.
With the proliferation of large field contests on the majority of daily fantasy sites, game selection is no longer an issue. The fantasy sports "donkament" has arrived in full force. Pretty much every day of the week you can play a large field event for a relatively small buy-in (with a promise of a decent pay day.)
Besides the attractive prize pools, there are other reasons to play large fields and not heads-up:
-No scouting of your opposition is needed. You are playing the field.
-No more worrying about your results being scraped by the douche bags that are compiling databases on all of the daily fantasy players. Yes, these players are profiling you. They are recording the players you are most likely to pick, which positions you spend the most on, etc.
Their work is worthless in the large field contests because they have to beat all of the players, not just you.
-No more worrying about sniping in the lobby for heads-up matches. I have material proof that some players are using scripts to get matchups on some fantasy contest sites.
Not much different than sniping for ebay auctions. It essentially puts these players in the lobby 24/7 to get action. The sites need to rectify this at some point.
-Although much higher variance, large field play requires a much smaller bankroll than heads-up play. Very few sites are offering large buy-in events (over $100).
If I were just starting out in the daily fantasy game, I would stick to solely the large field events for my real money play.
Many fantasy "experts" (I use that term VERY loosely) argued that without available game selection - meaning playing only weaker opponents - that it was IMPOSSIBLE to make a profit playing daily fantasy games.
Well, throw that whole argument out the window. It's now a moot point.
With the proliferation of large field contests on the majority of daily fantasy sites, game selection is no longer an issue. The fantasy sports "donkament" has arrived in full force. Pretty much every day of the week you can play a large field event for a relatively small buy-in (with a promise of a decent pay day.)
Besides the attractive prize pools, there are other reasons to play large fields and not heads-up:
-No scouting of your opposition is needed. You are playing the field.
-No more worrying about your results being scraped by the douche bags that are compiling databases on all of the daily fantasy players. Yes, these players are profiling you. They are recording the players you are most likely to pick, which positions you spend the most on, etc.
Their work is worthless in the large field contests because they have to beat all of the players, not just you.
-No more worrying about sniping in the lobby for heads-up matches. I have material proof that some players are using scripts to get matchups on some fantasy contest sites.
Not much different than sniping for ebay auctions. It essentially puts these players in the lobby 24/7 to get action. The sites need to rectify this at some point.
-Although much higher variance, large field play requires a much smaller bankroll than heads-up play. Very few sites are offering large buy-in events (over $100).
If I were just starting out in the daily fantasy game, I would stick to solely the large field events for my real money play.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
To The Victor Goes The Spoils
(Sorry, this post is not about my awesome brother-in-law Victor.)
Every once in awhile you get to celebrate when your hard work has paid off. After having a fairly good start to 2011, I decided to add to my fleet of goofy looking scooters and/or motorcycles.
I found a month old craigslist ad and inquired if the vehicle was still for sale. It was, and I decided to buy it. Here it is, a 2010 SYM Symba in powder blue:
This bike has ONE mile on the odometer. It needs a wash and some fresh gas, but it starts right up and should be on the road soon.
I seriously considered padding my online bankrolls some more, but until I'm more certain of sending my funds overseas, I'd rather keep those funds in my driveway.
Every once in awhile you get to celebrate when your hard work has paid off. After having a fairly good start to 2011, I decided to add to my fleet of goofy looking scooters and/or motorcycles.
I found a month old craigslist ad and inquired if the vehicle was still for sale. It was, and I decided to buy it. Here it is, a 2010 SYM Symba in powder blue:
This bike has ONE mile on the odometer. It needs a wash and some fresh gas, but it starts right up and should be on the road soon.
I seriously considered padding my online bankrolls some more, but until I'm more certain of sending my funds overseas, I'd rather keep those funds in my driveway.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Sizing Matters? You Bet!
In my previous post, I discussed some sports betting strategies. The final strategy - bet sizing - deserves its own post, because it's so important to overall profitability.
I want to share my experience with three different styles of bet sizing: Flat betting, Kelly betting and bet scaling.
Flat betting is betting a static amount every wager during a session. There is a lot of betting literature out there suggesting that sports bettors play 2% of their bankroll during a given session. So if my bankroll is $1000, I would wager $20 each on today's bets.
I find flat betting works only under the following circumstances:
1) You are a recreational bettor and profit means nothing to you.
2) Your bankroll is so big that the max bet is 2% or less of your roll.
Each sports bet you make has a different value attached to it. This is why your bet amount SHOULD be varied. By how much is really up to you.
Kelly criterion betting is probably the most popular bet sizing practiced by sharp bettors. If you can determine both the probability and the payoff odds of a given event, you can use a simple calculator to determine your bet size. (The result is expressed in percentage, where 8.25% = betting 8.25% of your bankroll.)
Now betting the full Kelly amount is the most aggressive way to build a bankroll, but it also offers the highest risk of ruin (aka busto). Many punters use a fractional Kelly method: Half Kelly, 1/4 Kelly or even 10% Kelly for the bankroll nits.
Whatever version of the Kelly method you employ, it will give you the varied bet size necessary to extract value from your wagers.
The third bet sizing method (which I currently use) is bet scaling. Scaling inolves using different bet sizes based on user generated criteria. (I guess you could argue Kelly betting is in fact bet scaling, but for this discussion they'll be separate.)
The most common form of bet scaling mentioned online is the "star play" system. Players bet 1-5 "units" on their wager, based upon some strength of the bet winning.
My method of bet scaling is completely different, although rather simplistic.
I wager a fixed percentage of my available bankroll on each wager. I know this sounds like flat betting, but it's not. An example:
I start with a $1000 bankroll and my scaling size is 10%.
My first wager is for $100, leaving me with $900 available. The second wager is for $90, leaving me with $810.
Let's say my 1st bet cashes at +120 odds (a $220 payout). Now my available bankroll is $1030. My 3rd bet is now placed, and the amount of the wager would be $103, leaving $927 available. And so on and so on...
This method of bet scaling has a few advantages IMO:
-If you're placing multiple bets at once you can consider which sizes/payoffs match which wagers. It forces you to think about the bets a bit more.
-This method prevents you from becoming "bet happy" and placing too many wagers at once, because the bet sizing gets much smaller if you do that.
-This method is very far removed from risk of ruin... as long as you stick to it!
Whatever method of bet sizing you use, remember that profitability from sports betting is derived from all facets: Shopping for good odds, at least a dash or two of good handicapping and money/bet management. Good luck!
I want to share my experience with three different styles of bet sizing: Flat betting, Kelly betting and bet scaling.
Flat betting is betting a static amount every wager during a session. There is a lot of betting literature out there suggesting that sports bettors play 2% of their bankroll during a given session. So if my bankroll is $1000, I would wager $20 each on today's bets.
I find flat betting works only under the following circumstances:
1) You are a recreational bettor and profit means nothing to you.
2) Your bankroll is so big that the max bet is 2% or less of your roll.
Each sports bet you make has a different value attached to it. This is why your bet amount SHOULD be varied. By how much is really up to you.
Kelly criterion betting is probably the most popular bet sizing practiced by sharp bettors. If you can determine both the probability and the payoff odds of a given event, you can use a simple calculator to determine your bet size. (The result is expressed in percentage, where 8.25% = betting 8.25% of your bankroll.)
Now betting the full Kelly amount is the most aggressive way to build a bankroll, but it also offers the highest risk of ruin (aka busto). Many punters use a fractional Kelly method: Half Kelly, 1/4 Kelly or even 10% Kelly for the bankroll nits.
Whatever version of the Kelly method you employ, it will give you the varied bet size necessary to extract value from your wagers.
The third bet sizing method (which I currently use) is bet scaling. Scaling inolves using different bet sizes based on user generated criteria. (I guess you could argue Kelly betting is in fact bet scaling, but for this discussion they'll be separate.)
The most common form of bet scaling mentioned online is the "star play" system. Players bet 1-5 "units" on their wager, based upon some strength of the bet winning.
My method of bet scaling is completely different, although rather simplistic.
I wager a fixed percentage of my available bankroll on each wager. I know this sounds like flat betting, but it's not. An example:
I start with a $1000 bankroll and my scaling size is 10%.
My first wager is for $100, leaving me with $900 available. The second wager is for $90, leaving me with $810.
Let's say my 1st bet cashes at +120 odds (a $220 payout). Now my available bankroll is $1030. My 3rd bet is now placed, and the amount of the wager would be $103, leaving $927 available. And so on and so on...
This method of bet scaling has a few advantages IMO:
-If you're placing multiple bets at once you can consider which sizes/payoffs match which wagers. It forces you to think about the bets a bit more.
-This method prevents you from becoming "bet happy" and placing too many wagers at once, because the bet sizing gets much smaller if you do that.
-This method is very far removed from risk of ruin... as long as you stick to it!
Whatever method of bet sizing you use, remember that profitability from sports betting is derived from all facets: Shopping for good odds, at least a dash or two of good handicapping and money/bet management. Good luck!
Thursday, April 07, 2011
Climbing The Sports Betting Learning Curve
While I have dabbled in betting for several years, I only took up the pursuit seriously last December during my first trip to Vegas.
After getting back from my trip, I decided to take on the sports books, especially since there is legal wagering In Niagara Falls.
I have to admit I started out quite poorly, putting together losing months in January & February.
However, as I studied both the betting market & new strategies, I began to show some promise. March was a decent profit, given the circumstances.
I could spend all afternoon writing about this, but here are some quick points that have helped me turn a profit with sports betting:
1) Go with what you know. This may seem obvious, but you'll make the best betting decisions when you have the most information available. I follow baseball, hockey, college sports and auto racing religiously. It's no coincidence I have the most winners in those sports. I pretty much suck at NFL and NBA. (Although I'm a great fantasy football playa!)
2) Your profits will be severly limited unless you can shop lines. If you have access to only one book, you're stuck with whatever lines/juice they offer. There have been a lot of quality plays I wanted to make - and passed on - because I couldn't get a decent line to put money down. My top priority right now is to get more options available.
3) Totals are usually more profitable than sides. For those of you not in on the betting lingo, totals are the "over/under" bet on a game. Sides are the teams (i.e. Dallas or Washington). Totals are easier to project and it's difficult for the books to protect themselves on the totals line. Most of the full-time sharp bettors I've met play totals first, often waiting for the moment a new line comes out just to hit it for the max.
4) When playing the betting market, the name of the game is beating the closing line. If the Yankees close at -200, you want to get your bet on them at something better, like -190. If the point spread on the Suns is +3, you want to get your bet in at +5 or +6. Using the market moves (aka steam) to get better lines is a habit you will pick up over time.
5) If the line moves in your favor, double down. If you were confident enough to place that bet once, why not place it again at better odds? It's just like buying shares of AAPL at $250, then finding out they're available at $200 later in the day. Go get some more.
6) Bet sizing matters. I'm going to write another post just on bet sizing, but you do not want to bet equal units on every wager. Kelly criterion wagering is popular with a lot of bettors, although I do not exactly follow that method anymore.
When deciding on how much to bet, consider this: Once you place a wager, that money is no longer part of your bankroll. So ignore outstanding bets when you consider placing new wagers.
While none of this is earth shattering news, learning to take all of these considerations into your betting process will increase both confidence and winnings.
After getting back from my trip, I decided to take on the sports books, especially since there is legal wagering In Niagara Falls.
I have to admit I started out quite poorly, putting together losing months in January & February.
However, as I studied both the betting market & new strategies, I began to show some promise. March was a decent profit, given the circumstances.
I could spend all afternoon writing about this, but here are some quick points that have helped me turn a profit with sports betting:
1) Go with what you know. This may seem obvious, but you'll make the best betting decisions when you have the most information available. I follow baseball, hockey, college sports and auto racing religiously. It's no coincidence I have the most winners in those sports. I pretty much suck at NFL and NBA. (Although I'm a great fantasy football playa!)
2) Your profits will be severly limited unless you can shop lines. If you have access to only one book, you're stuck with whatever lines/juice they offer. There have been a lot of quality plays I wanted to make - and passed on - because I couldn't get a decent line to put money down. My top priority right now is to get more options available.
3) Totals are usually more profitable than sides. For those of you not in on the betting lingo, totals are the "over/under" bet on a game. Sides are the teams (i.e. Dallas or Washington). Totals are easier to project and it's difficult for the books to protect themselves on the totals line. Most of the full-time sharp bettors I've met play totals first, often waiting for the moment a new line comes out just to hit it for the max.
4) When playing the betting market, the name of the game is beating the closing line. If the Yankees close at -200, you want to get your bet on them at something better, like -190. If the point spread on the Suns is +3, you want to get your bet in at +5 or +6. Using the market moves (aka steam) to get better lines is a habit you will pick up over time.
5) If the line moves in your favor, double down. If you were confident enough to place that bet once, why not place it again at better odds? It's just like buying shares of AAPL at $250, then finding out they're available at $200 later in the day. Go get some more.
6) Bet sizing matters. I'm going to write another post just on bet sizing, but you do not want to bet equal units on every wager. Kelly criterion wagering is popular with a lot of bettors, although I do not exactly follow that method anymore.
When deciding on how much to bet, consider this: Once you place a wager, that money is no longer part of your bankroll. So ignore outstanding bets when you consider placing new wagers.
While none of this is earth shattering news, learning to take all of these considerations into your betting process will increase both confidence and winnings.
Tuesday, April 05, 2011
A Working Vacation?
I think I need another vacation. I'm actually in a pretty rough emotional state. I wonder if it might be male menopause.
I don't really understand what's going on with my body these days, but I've been an emo bitch lately. This needs to stop.
I've been thinking about taking some of the bankroll from my recent big scores and travel to Niagara Falls (Ontario) for a week of live sports betting at the casino.
The change of scenery might do me some good.
Then again, I could take that travel money and pad my online betting bankroll. The convenience of betting from home is great too.
Any suggestions? What would you do?
I don't really understand what's going on with my body these days, but I've been an emo bitch lately. This needs to stop.
I've been thinking about taking some of the bankroll from my recent big scores and travel to Niagara Falls (Ontario) for a week of live sports betting at the casino.
The change of scenery might do me some good.
Then again, I could take that travel money and pad my online betting bankroll. The convenience of betting from home is great too.
Any suggestions? What would you do?
Saturday, April 02, 2011
The April Curse Is Over
Four years. Horrible losing streaks every April since 2007. Sometimes the swings get bad enough to make me want to quit fantasy sports.
That all changed yesterday.
Wanting to help my focus, I decided to offers stakes to daily fantasy players. This allows me to concentrate on one site/sport at a time.
The very first horse I got going this year was my friend Brian. He was recently laid off from his job here in Buffalo.
So I gave him a little primer on how daily fantasy works and also shared my daily fantasy projections.
Off he went to Fan Duel on his first day.
I almost forgot... his username? thruthewickets.
So my first horse (on his 1st day of play) cashed for $8100 on 10 entries in the grand slam. 1st, 2nd, 12th & 13th. Yeah, it was a good day. Some thoughts:
-It was a combination of good karma & serendipity for this to even happen. I wasn't playing this tourney, no matter what.
-It was nice to see some of the top grinders drop a bunch of entries and whiff. Haters gonna hate. (It goes both ways, I guess).
-Once again, it shows that my projection model works. If I can take a newbie with a couple hours of training & some data and get those results - it speaks for itself.
Also, if anybody thinks they are worthy of being staked for daily fantasy, I'm always open to developing new relationships. If you've got grind on the mind, let me know.
It's about time I put a crew together to take on the other teams.
That all changed yesterday.
Wanting to help my focus, I decided to offers stakes to daily fantasy players. This allows me to concentrate on one site/sport at a time.
The very first horse I got going this year was my friend Brian. He was recently laid off from his job here in Buffalo.
So I gave him a little primer on how daily fantasy works and also shared my daily fantasy projections.
Off he went to Fan Duel on his first day.
I almost forgot... his username? thruthewickets.
So my first horse (on his 1st day of play) cashed for $8100 on 10 entries in the grand slam. 1st, 2nd, 12th & 13th. Yeah, it was a good day. Some thoughts:
-It was a combination of good karma & serendipity for this to even happen. I wasn't playing this tourney, no matter what.
-It was nice to see some of the top grinders drop a bunch of entries and whiff. Haters gonna hate. (It goes both ways, I guess).
-Once again, it shows that my projection model works. If I can take a newbie with a couple hours of training & some data and get those results - it speaks for itself.
Also, if anybody thinks they are worthy of being staked for daily fantasy, I'm always open to developing new relationships. If you've got grind on the mind, let me know.
It's about time I put a crew together to take on the other teams.
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