Fantasy Sports Grinding: The Wheat Thin Example

So there's a new Condia interview out, where he claims to have put his "entire life savings" on the line in weeks 1 & 2 of NFL. I don't buy it for one second. He was crushed in week 2, so that would have completely crippled his bankroll for the rest of the season.

I'm not trying to take away anything from Condia, he is an excellent fantasy player. The point I'm trying to make is that the industry will always promote the biggest rake generators over the players with superior ROI.

This is why the RG rankings are so flawed. They discount multiple tourney cashes, while crediting every HU cash. When I put seven top 20 finishes in a 2500+ player tourney, only one of my cashes count towards the rankings. (I only entered 24 times, less than 1% of the total entries.)

Both RG and the contest sites have a specific reason for promoting the biggest rake generators: It makes them more money. They want you to shoot for the leader board, because you will spend more of your money to get there.

Let me give you a real world example of the same concepts. Wheat Thins.

In terms of Wheat Thins, Condia is the person who buys the most Wheat Thins in the land. The maker of Wheat Thins notices this and decides to use him to promote their product. They might feature him in a commercial or give him some award for consuming the most Wheat Thins.

"Look how great Wheat Thins are! He spends so much on them, they must be awesome!"

However, a good ROI player is the person who spends the least per box of Wheat Thins. He might not have as many Wheat Thins, but he will never need the huge bankroll to buy the amount desired.

There is absolutely no incentive for the maker of Wheat Thins to acknowledge or promote this person. They want you to spend more!

Regardless of what RG or any contest site says, they do not want to help you maximize profits. They want you to spend... In order to achieve some ranking that has no monetary reward.

Those badges & freerolls don't usually end up on your 1099, unless you win. And that's a BIG if.

Think about it.

I'm going to Vegas for two weeks starting tomorrow. Follow my twitter page for picks & updates.

The First Stop On My Journey Is Home

I finally get to start my nomadic journey today. Surprisingly, I'm traveling back to CNY to visit some friends & family.

I have a relative in the hospital and I want to make sure he's doing OK. Other than a couple of good meals, this is a chance to unwind away from my PC.

I have a short list of cities I want to visit before spring arrives. I haven't booked much of the travel yet but it's just a matter of logistics at this point.

I cashed out the majority of my fantasy bankroll and would be surprised if I played much going forward until baseball. Maybe some tournaments, if anything.

I'll probably sneak in some horse betting for sure.

Right now I'm focused on looking for the next great opportunity in my life. I can always come right back to this.

I'll keep you posted.

I Think It's Time For A Walkabout

After a great December I still find myself in a big hole for the new year. While I have only given back 25% of last month's profits, it's an unusual situation to be down this deep early in a month.

I also find myself stymied with current daily fantasy options before me. I have been working hard at NBA because that is where the money flows. My results have been fair at best, losing quite a few close games. It seems to come down to 3v3 or even 1v1 every night, thanks to roster duplication (stemming from obvious value).

NHL is pretty much fucked for the rest of the year. The traffic has completely disappeared at high stakes and the tournament prize pools have been shrinking. My research time is better spent on hoops, where a $10 entry can win $1600 as opposed to $300 in hockey.

Faced with spending three months working the sport I like least, I'm considering taking a "walkabout".

Since I'm not an Aboriginal Australian (and I don't want to offend any), I'm using the North American version. It's an interruption of work to go on a nomadic journey, sometimes of a spiritual nature.

I think it might be time for me to see what's out there for a bit.

I have struggled with making some life decisions for a few months. I like my life and I like living in Buffalo. But I also might be sacrificing some great opportunities that lie elsewhere.

There are better places for me to handle my health issues. There are places that would allow me greater sports investing. I'm guessing there are places that would make life more comfortable for me, such as a warmer climate.

I just need to go see for myself. Figure things out.

So I'll probably play a light schedule of fantasy contests while I book my travel. I want to go where the wind takes me for awhile.

More on the subject soon.

OT: The Lauren Situation

Sorry if I've neglected this space for a bit. It was a busy month, although not with the usual holiday BS one would expect.

I actually had my best personal month fantasy-wise, although New Year's weekend was a huge let down. While December was a cash cow, January already looks like a hole I'll have to dig out from under.

I've been struggling for a few weeks over writing this post. It's personal. I don't like to go off point too much here. I try to protect my privacy somewhat, but I think writing about what's going on in my life helps me process things.

For the first time in a LONG time, I let myself get involved in a relationship. To be honest, I've been doing much more end of life planning than the "build a life together" stuff. I know what a hassle closing an estate can be - I want to be prepared for that when the other shoe drops on me.

Most of my friends that have asked for relationship advice know my oft quoted mantra, "Relationships are overrated." I have had little to no success in this area and the majority of my social circle haven't fared much better. I see the misery a soured affair brings to one of my crew.

And then, I met Lauren.

Somehow this woman comes into my life. Very attractive, age appropriate, not perfect by any means. I never spent time with her considering the prospect of a relationship. But she always managed to say the things I always looked for in a prospective mate.

If possibility was a locked door, she found the crack in it and busted it wide open. My usual pessimistic self was put on the back burner for a more optimistic version.

After about two months in, things began to unravel. While I never asked for a committed relationship, Lauren's words didn't jibe with her actions. My Spidey sense started tingling and what was her huge house of cards came crashing down.

Simply put, this woman was (is) a compulsive liar. She completely deceived me as to what was going on in her life, so much so that she ended up in jail for the last week. It's really too bad, because her honesty at some point would've ended up with me helping her probably avoiding that whole situation. Now it's out of my hands.

I struggle with the notion of how much of her was genuine towards me. 50%? 10%? Zero? Who really knows.

The only positive thing I can take from this is that deep down... Way down, I'm still open to not living my life alone. I accept that I'll most likely spend the rest of my years riding solo. But it's nice to think that I'm not totally shut off to the opportunity, should one arise.

Now back to our regularly scheduled blogging.