Too Many Sites, Not Enough Traffic

And so it has begun.

As it approaches six years of existence, I call this "stage 2" of the daily fantasy sports industry.

There are now well over a dozen live contest sites (maybe even 20 if there's a few I haven't spotted yet).

In this very moment, all of the sites are vying for your dollar just before the start of the NFL season. This is the Black Friday of DFS.

There are plenty of deposit bonuses, freerolls and contest promotions. Play against your favorite fantasy expert or fantasy hottie. (I maintain that none of the experts are good looking and none of the hotties are experts.)

Fan Duel even got mentioned on Deadspin for doing a Jim Rome rip off in one of its commercials.

At first glance, it seems all of this competition is great for the player, and to some extent that's true. If you're just starting out and trying to build bankroll, you can bonus whore a little bit.

What is disappointing (from my point of view) is that the traffic simply cannot support all of the sites at this time.

Why does this suck?

Simply stated, it forces the tournament prize pools down. Sites will roll out a big tourney and if it doesn't fill they adjust the tourney size downwards.

I suppose if you are strictly a heads-up player, this would mean little to you. However, there is so much dead money in the large fields, any decent player would be foolish not to invest in them.

One really great development of this fierce competition is the lowering of rake. Fantasy Sports Live just announced that all of its HU games are now down to 5%. I would be all over that.

So what's "stage 3" of the DFS industry?

There's going to be eventual consolidation. Some of the sites will be bought out. Some will go under. Players will be pissed they lost money with a failing site.

But hopefully traffic will grow steadily so when the consolidation occurs, there will be bigger prize pools for the player.

Would You Buy Your Way Into A Final?

Just a quck thought about the Fan Duel FFFC, since it seems to be generating a lot of interest.

If you had a "Condia sized" bankroll, would you buy your way into the FFFC final?

Since the $270 qualifiers are limited to 99 entries, would you buy all 99 entries to get a shot at the $150,000?

If you did buy all of the entries, it would only cost you $20,480 because you would receive all of the $6,250 runner-up prizes.

A finals seat has an average value of $14,583. However, you would need to finish 3rd or better to make a certain profit.

I'm assuming anyone as wealthy as Condia wouldn't mind taking a $5k loss for a shot at glory, right?

The Fan Duel FFFC Is Back, With Outrageous Rake

Fan Duel has been very successful at running the largest tournaments in daily fantasy sports. Their baseball and football events are happenings that attract a lot of press.

This season Fan Duel announced their biggest prize pool yet. The 2012 FFFC will have a finals prize pool of $350,000, with $150,000 going to the winner.

I know these tournies are very popular with the average player. It's kind of a lottery mentality: $10 and a dream. I'm warning you now that if you play these qualifiers heavily, your dream could become a nightmare.

Why?

Because Fan Duel rakes these qualifiers at about twice what they rake the regular tournies.

This season there are two levels of qualifiers: $10 and $270. Let's start with the $270 level, which is capped at 99 entries. Each quaifier awards one seat in the final, with an average value of $14,583. They also award $6,250 in runner up prizes.

That's a payout of $20,833 while taking in $26,730.

Let me do the math for you: $5897 in rake each time. 22.06% rake.

The $10 qualifiers could be even steeper rake, because the tournaments are not capped (while the payouts are identical). There has rarely been an overlay in any DFBC/FFFC qualifier.

I realize it's just fun entertainment for some players to "take their shot". But as I said last year, you are more likely to make a solid profit sticking to the regular NFL tournaments.

Punters Need More Love

Well this month has been both crazy hot & mostly without internet access. I haven't played much fantasy at all since the all-star break.

I've seen that some sites have launched week 1 NFL contests, without any major changes. I know that there's a vocal minority out there that wants to see kicking removed from the game.

Some folks view the kicker spot as a "luck" position. This means that all the different kickers are priced similarly, making your choice a guess.

I disagree with that sentiment. Kickers have matchups just like any other position. A team with a horrible red zone offense makes their kicker an attractive pick, he will get more FG chances. Also kickers playing in domes tend to be solid picks.

Going to the other extreme, I would really like to see punters added to DFS rosters.

Punting is a huge part of the game. Punters can sometimes get 10 kicks in a single game. Bill Parcells has said that 100 yards in net field position is worth 7 points for your team. Punting is where most of that field position comes from.

I think adding a punter roster spot and giving .03 pts/yard would be a great addition to daily fantasy football. It would add more depth and complexity, while also helping avoid roster duplication.

I'm really looking forward to NFL to help jump start this year.