Buffalo Hold 'Em

Goodbye Jack (a long remembrance)

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:31:00 +0000

Prologue

This could also be titled: “What the hell I’ve been doing with my life the last four years.”

I started this blog in 2003 as a thirty-something, poker playing party animal. I regaled in tales of bad beats, cheap drinks and (occasionally) bathroom sex. I was enjoying the nightlife in Buffalo and it treated me pretty good.

I was also catching on to the growing poker blogging community. I missed a couple of blogger gatherings, mostly because they were far away. To this day I’ve still never been to Vegas.

All things must change, I guess. During the summer of 2005 my ebay business – my “9 to 5 job” - had pretty much collapsed. The combination of rising costs, merchandise flooding the market (and the lingering NHL lockout) basically destroyed my revenue stream. And poker wasn’t paying the bills either.

I didn’t really have any other choice to pack up and leave my now too expensive apartment. So in 2005, I moved back to our family’s house in Auburn, NY (aka “Prison City”).

And that is where this story begins.

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I meant that move to be only temporary – a jumping off point to embark on a new adventure. Obviously, that’s not what happened.

I spent the first few months worried I had turned into the ultimate blogger or 2+2 cliché – living in my parent’s basement, spewing pseudo “baller” posts online, pretending to be someone that mattered. (FWIW, I’ve never been baller, real or imagined.)

Besides, I was also knocking on 40 years old and uncertain what the hell I was supposed to be doing anyway.

What I soon realized was that my father, Jack – my new roommate – had been living all alone for a few years, and becoming quite overwhelmed with the house upkeep and the isolation he had created.

I quickly surmised that my “temporary” move had taken on a whole new meaning. I had two choices: I could pay someone to look after my father, or stay with him and help take care of his affairs.

Since I couldn’t afford to hire any help, I decided to stay for the long haul.

There’s a little back-story here. Jack and I had a tenuous relationship at best. We didn’t speak to each other for several years. It was very “prodigal son-ish” – I needed to prove I didn’t need him for anything, and he needed to prove he had the final say on most of my life choices.

We had made our peace well before 2005, but you can imagine how difficult it was for Jack to ask me for anything. If he needed support from his kids, why did it have to be from me?

My father was retired and fairly well off. Approaching 80, he was mentally sharp and very capable of looking after his finances. But he had reached an age where we all get worn out easily and sometimes forgetful.

So for about a year there was a nice balance at home. I helped with the household affairs, and I had enough space I could get back into poker and whatever else I wanted to try. (Daily fantasy sports soon came along – another story for another time.)

Early in 2006 Jack had his regularly scheduled doctor visits and was sent to a lung specialist. He was soon diagnosed with pulmonary fibrosis – irreversible scarring of the lungs. It was idiopathic, meaning that the cause of the illness is unknown. He never smoked one day in his life.

Since this is a progressive disease, I knew right away that he had been dealt a shitty hand - a long, slow death sentence. And he took the news like a fucking man. Jack never told a bad beat story, regardless of the circumstances.

He was immediately put on oxygen, which he needed 24/7 for the rest of his life. The next 2+ years were pleasantly uneventful, considering the amount of doctor visits he required. I think he had about seven specialists he was seeing.

This year was just a long, downward slide. My father continued to lose weight down to about 100 pounds. (This is a side effect of the lung disease). As he needed higher levels of oxygen to maintain his blood levels, even simple tasks like walking to the bathroom were exhausting struggles.

This spring my sister also moved back to the house from California. She was a huge help with the medical scheduling, as Jack needed more and more treatments at home.

This fall we found out my father had cancer. But in actuality, this turned out to be the least of our worries.

Jack was a great patient, always wanting to fight. He was just too weak and frail for any chemo or radiation.

We had a few scares in November when his breathing became irregular or shallow. We called 911 more than once over the last month.

Jack ended up in the hospital and we were discussing hospice options for him. He actually seemed to improve a bit. He was completely lucid and cracking some jokes.

Then on early Saturday morning, around the time hardcore bloggers were holding court at the hooker bar, my father passed away.

I don’t believe in fate or happen-stance or whatever, but there were forces pushing me to where I am right now.

While I’m still mourning, I’m a little scared to begin that new adventure I meant to start in 2005.

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Epilogue

I buried my father yesterday.

He was a depression era child. He taught me the importance of appreciating what you have.

I’m thankful we got to spend his final years together.

It’s just that simple.

PS – Here’s my favorite pic of Jack. He used to race sports cars before he had kids.

Hiatus

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:02:00 +0000

Even though I am a solid winner all around this month, I have to take a break for a few weeks.

Things are getting very difficult for me I.R.L. I'm still dealing with some personal matters, which take up most of my time.

I'll still offer daily fantasy projections for my subscribers, but you probably won't hear much from me until after the holidays.

I did manage to win both football picks last week, giving me a squeaker of a winning year.

Happy Holidizzle to all my faithful readership.

Still Here, Still Busy

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:49:00 +0000

Not much time to write.

I had a winning November overall, Way up on FSL but a loser on Fan Duel.

I'm super hot playing hockey this week, closing in on 40 consecutive FSL cashes.

My "no research" football picks: I'm picking the Cincinnati Bearcats and Indianapolis Colts to cover this week. Trying to salvage a winning year. [2009 YTD 19-20.]

Back soon, I promise.

Sometimes, Stuff Gets Real

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:27:00 +0000

I'm dealing with some personal family matters that are occupying the majority of my time. I'll probably write about it at some point.

But for now, you won't find too much going on here.

Football Picks: CFL Grey Cup, Saskatchewan vs. Montreal (-9.5). The Als are the best team by far. I hope they cover. NCAA, Miami @ South Fla. (+6.5). Big East continues to be underrated. NFL, Jaguars (+3) @ 49ers. Jacksonville is still sniffing the playoffs. [2009 YTD 19-17.]

Mired In A Slump

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 16:29:00 +0000

Things have been pretty slow this week. I haven't found as much hockey action as I would care to play.

I've managed to whittle away my early big gains on FSL, although I am still profitable for the month.

Over on Fan Duel, I managed to put together twin 5-day losing streaks, sandwiched by a minute profit. I'm virtually assured of a losing month, barring going perfect the rest of the way.

I can't complain, it's been 3+ months since I've had significant losses on any site. You can't run good forever.

Even though I've been losing, no one has taken me up on my HU challenge. I'm not surprised.

I took last week off from football picks, I hope that doesn't cost me a winning year.

Picks: CFL, Calgary @ Saskatchewan (-3). I expect the 'Riders to make the Grey Cup game. NCAA, LSU (+4.5) @ Ole Miss. Bounce back game for the Tigers. NFL, Colts (-1) @ Ravens. Lines are huge this week, taking a coin toss. [2009 YTD 16-17.]

Oh No. Here We Go Again.

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:20:00 +0000

I've been playing daily fantasy games for 3+ years, and every time a new site starts to get popular, the same "competition & fairness" issues pop up.

Over on the Fan Duel forums, the bitching and moaning has become pretty loud.

First off, we have this gem about tie contests:

"Bad enough we gotta win 55.6% of the time just to break even, now we take it in the shorts when we tie huh? Okey-doke. See y'all 'round elsewhere."

You paid an specific entry fee for a contest with a specific prize. When you tie, you split the prize money. Put away your skirt and get over it.

Let me give you a poker example. We are playing a cash game (online or in a casino). We play a hand all in pre-flop, AA vs. AA. The board comes KK456 rainbow. We split the pot, and the pot is still raked.

My advice is, don't play if you don't know what you're getting into - or play the free "just for fun" games.

The second Fan Duel issue revolves around the matchup process. Apparently, some contest hogs are appearing, resulting in the same matchups over and over. The hogs sign up for dozens of $5 contests, leaving the casual users frustrated.

I do understand that it can get stale playing the same opponent over and over. But guess what? IT'S HEADS-UP PLAY! You only get one opponent. Winning players will play more. They will leverage their money as much as possible.

I look at this situation as a way to learn how to beat the "hog" long term. You know you will get action from him every night. You can try different strategies and see what works best.

Do you think the best HU poker players in the world use the exact same strategy for every opponent? Hell no, they adjust their play based upon the opponent and circumstances.

I also believe a lot of these casual users are affected by short term results. They lose a few in a row, get matched up with the same opponent again and the negative vibes start flowing. Don't be so results oriented, there will be good runs and bad.

As for the matchup process, there are a few things I think Fan Duel can do to improve the situation:

solution A - Limit the number of entries at the $5 level. Say you can only enter between 5-10 $5 contests, but you can play unlimited $10 and up. If a "hog' wants to put all their money in play, they will have to play higher.

solution B - change the matching algorithm for $5 contests. Let's say the entries break down like this:

Player 1 has 70 entries
Player 2 has 45 entries
Player 3 has 25 entries
All other players have 2 or fewer entries.

Step 1: eliminate (do not match) 25 entries for player 1 so he has the same entries as player 2.

Step 2: match 20 entries between players 1 & 2, until they have the same number of entries left as player 3.

Step 3: match entries between players 1,2,3 until they have the same number of entries as the next player, repeat as necessary, etc.

This will allow the casual user to get a truly random opponent.

Both of these solutions are simple, straightforward and easy for Fan Duel to implement.

In defense of the contest hogs I did read some posts about not getting matched up regularly at higher levels, so obviously they played lower stakes.

In summary, just man up and quit your crying. I've played on virtually every site and none of them are perfect. There are contest hogs on every site. There will be growing pains on every site.

If you have to hand pick your opponent for every contest, you're probably not good enough to beat most of the sites anyway.

Haterade Shower

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:16:00 +0000

What an extremely interesting week it's been in fantasy world. Last night I got this thrown at me in an FSL hockey contest:

So... fill in the blank. (He's mad at me and I lost the contest!) Not the first time someone has tried to tilt me in a fantasy contest.

I'm guessing he's upset that I'm a fantasy expert, yet not playing nosebleed stakes. Well, I'll tell you why I'm not playing nosebleed games right now:

1) I can't afford it. I'm not bankrolled enough to play up there.
2) It's a dumb move, UNLESS... and this is important - you know you can get consistent, repeat action at those levels.

Let's say for argument's sake I play him 3 straight nights at $107 HU. And I manage to win all three contests. Does he continue to play me? Does he start to avoid me? Does he refuse to sign up 1st for any contests? We'll never know.

Since there is no guarantee of repeat action, there is no point in risking a large portion of my bankroll on one contest.

I never said to ANYONE I was the BEST fantasy player. However, I am a winning fantasy player. I have won on ALL of the daily sites I've played on - including the (*ahem*) "unbeatable" sites. I have won every year from 2006-2009. I'm one of the only players active in all sports currently being offered on the daily sites.

I cash out my winnings and I spend them. I'm not a wealthy man and I realize that $213 fantasy contests are play money games to some folks. Believe me, I'd like to get to those games, because I think there's a lot of dead money there.

If somebody wants to set up a HU challenge across ALL the sports, I'll take anyone on at whatever stakes I can afford. And I'll gladly post the results right here, win or lose.

I actually started my daily fantasy projections site to try and raise money to reach those expensive games. I figured it would be worth it for my opponents to find out who I was likely to pick each night. Basically, I've been selling some of my edge for a price.

Speaking of daily fantasy projections, I see that FSL has decided to offer free projections for football contests. It's a good marketing tool for them.

But I think that imitation is a sincere form of flattery! (I also think you get what you pay for!)

DFP offers projections for all team sports on all the best sites, every day.

While I do think there are excellent free player ranking out there, our football projections come from full game simlulations that include all stats used in scoring - Yds, TDs, Fumbles, INTs, Sacks, Safeties, 2 pt conversions, FG distance and accuracy.

It's important to have accurate projections, because that's how you know if you're getting good value for the cap space you are using.

My projections are back by 3+ years of WINNING results and are a tremendous value for the price.

One last thing - Any player good enough to beat me consistently wouldn't be crying for a matchup. They would be quietly pleased whenever I show up (at ANY stakes).

More Auto Draft Discussion: The Endgame

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:22:00 +0000

I'm surprised about how much feedback I got from my previous post. I didn't realize that many of my readers were avid auto draft fans.

Well, I'm going to compare FSL and Fan Duel auto drafts. Even though they shouldn't really be compared - they are very different games.

On Fan Duel the auto draft has a flexible player list. This means you can select a player (say Kobe Bryant), and put him as you 1st choice or 18th choice (or anywhere in between). You can choose the exact order you draft each player, regardless of their position on the field.

On FSL the auto draft has a rigid player list. You make your choices at each position, but the order that the players are drafted is pre-determined.

On Fan Duel the draft order is determined by which user signs up first. Users then alternate picks until the rosters are filled. Since opponents are randomly chosen, you have a chance of picking 1st or 2nd.

On FSL the draft order is determined by total cap points of your picks. The user with the lowest cap total picks 1st. (This method is explained in FAQ of the FSL site, but it would be nice if it was included on the contest page or rules page.)

On Fan Duel, it is a slight advantage to pick 1st, but I feel this advantage is minimized by the flexibility of the draft list.

On FSL, it is a huge advantage to pick 1st (or 2nd, depending on the sport). IMO, it should be your primary objective to get the superior draft position.

The best example I can give comparing the two sites is a basketball contest, on a night when both Kobe and LeBron are playing.

On Fan Duel, if each user drafts those players first, one will get Kobe and one will get LeBron.

On FSL, the user in the 2nd draft position will get BOTH Kobe and LeBron, while player 1 will get neither.

So use your own judgement over which game fits your needs.

I prefer the Fan Duel drafts, but that's just me.

I'm pretty much done talking about this, OK?

Why Auto Drafts On Fantasy Sports Live Are EXTREMELY Flawed

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:20:00 +0000

Let's get the results out of the way first. I had a losing Sunday. It was mostly football fail - I won 5 of 6 NASCAR events and was a slight winner in hoops. With the exception of the late games, I cashed in very few football contests.

I was going to write a strategy post (for daily fantasy projections) on auto drafts, when FSL decided to launch their version. After trying them several times, I can say this: It is NOT a true draft, because you cannot select the order you draft your players.

Even without that option, is it a fair draft? On the surface, it appears so - players take turns choosing in a snake draft fashion.

However, the order of the selections are predetermined based upon who signed up first. This is where the fairness of the draft is skewed. Let me give you some examples:

NASCAR draft: Player 1 is always guaranteed first Sprint Cup pick (i.e. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, etc.)

NBA drafts: Player 2 is guaranteed first SG (Kobe), SF (LeBron) and C (Dwight Howard).

NHL drafts: Player 1 is guaranteed first C (Crosby, Malkin, etc.) and first LW (Ovechkin).

NFL drafts: Player 1 gets first QB and first RB choices, usually the highest scoring positions.

MLB draft: Player 1 is guaranteed first P selection. This pretty much makes the auto draft not worth playing on nights when a stud pitches.

Now it's possible to get the good slot and still lose. That's just variance. I lost 3 of 4 football drafts yesterday and I picked first.

Here's the rub - if it is OBVIOUS that's it's better to be player 2, why would anyone sign up first? (or vice versa?)

IMO, Fan Duel has superior auto draft because you're allowed to select the order you choose your players. This allows you to be competitive regardless of your draft position.

Fan Duel will get all of my auto draft play from now on.

I still think FSL has a superior ranking cap game and I will continue to play those contests.

Three Tablespoons Of Blah

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:28:00 +0000

After my big Sunday, I am wallowing in a three day losing streak.

Monday was another decent winner, but a last second meaningless "surrender" goal (it was not an empty net goal) cost me several contests on Tuesday - and I managed to avoid a winner.

Then the next few days were mostly fail. However, my huge day was on the 1st of the month, so I'm still way up in November. (Accentuate the positive.)

I experimented a little with my ranking cap picks by scouring the player pool for "value picks". I noticed Kaiseroll13 had most of the same choices. But our choices mostly didn't pan out.

While I believe it's necessary to have an obvious bargain on your roster, I think it's better for your score to pick the top (projected) performers and work your way down.

I have a busy day ahead with daily fantasy projections for basketball, hockey and football, plus a strategy post on auto draft games.

Football Picks: CFL, Calgary @ Saskatchewan (-1.5). I'm expecting the Riders to redeem themselves. NCAA, LSU (+7.5) @ Alabama. The Tide plays too many close games. NFL, Dolphins (+10.5) @ Patriots. Strictly a cover play. [2009 YTD 14-16.]

Another Super Sunday

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 16:38:00 +0000

It's been a while, but I finally had a day where I clicked on all fronts. Just like last year around this time, I had a huge Sunday.

I managed to cash in 19 of 21 football contests on FSL, winning 17. I also cashed in all nine hoops contests, winning eight.

Overall I was 29 of 33 on FSL for an ROI of +209.60%. A nice bankroll boost. (It might have been even better if the NASCAR contests did not get rained out!)

On Fan Duel I swept my NBA contests and I'm on pace to win all five of my NFL duels, depending on the outcome of Monday Night Football.

I'm also in line to post another winning day on Snapdraft, although I am beginning to phase out my play on that site. (I'll discuss this more in the future.)

I don't know how often I can say this: My daily fantasy projections really work!

Finally, I won only a single football pick. I blame this on not taking any time with my choices(and it showed).

Quick Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 15:22:00 +0000

Pressed for time... here are the picks with no explanation:

CFL: Saskatchewan (+1) @ Hamilton.
NCAA: USC (-3) @ Oregon.
NFL: Miami (+3.5) @ NY Jets.
[2009 YTD 13-14.]

Why Auto Draft Is Best For NBA Daily Fantasy Games

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 14:25:00 +0000

This is the third season I'm trying my hand at fantasy basketball. The previous two years, I just felt I didn't have any edge over the competition, and it was a "rolling dice" scenario at best.

From the first to the second year, FSL changed their roster size from seven to nine. This helped reduce the possibility of duplicate rosters, but it still seemed all the regulars had several similar players each night.

Now going from the second to third season, I have the added advantage of my daily fantasy projections to help choose the best roster. I'm hoping my mathematical model will give me an edge this season.

However, there's going to be those nights where everyone picks the same. Just two nights into the current season, I've already seen exact duplicate rosters from two of the best opponents (with 12 games on the schedule, no less)!

I've been playing both salary cap and auto draft over on Fan Duel, and I think auto draft is a superior product for basketball. With a 9 player roster and no overlapping picks, I feel this is a much more skillful game. Even though there is no cap, there are some great disparities between 1st and 2nd (or 3rd/4th) choice at a given position.

It is a different skill than picking 9 players to neatly fit into your cap, but I think it's a stronger component to success, making cap games seem more luck oriented.

Maybe I just like the fact that there will be 9 unique players on each roster, and I won't have seven identical players as Tippy, Bonds, Kaiseroll13 and Primetime420. That gets old pretty quick.

Partly Profitable With A Chance of Winnings Through The Weekend

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:15:00 +0000

I managed to suffer through a quite nasty losing streak in hockey, putting up losing numbers on all three sites most of the week.

However, Sunday was kinder to me, putting winners up across the board. Most of my profits on FSL came from NASCAR, where I won every contest save two. I profited slightly on football, just barely in the black again.

I swept all 5 football contests on Fan Duel and also won a hockey contest for a perfect Sunday. I had swooned lately over there - after a hot 10-2 start, it took this perfecto to get me back over .500 lifetime at 22-21.

Snapdraft hasn't settled yet but I'm looking at another winning Sunday, since my only player left (Celek) shouldn't score negative points.

I'm in the process of getting all of my stats updated, which I will post on Twitter. I've been a winner on all four sites (Draftbug included) in September and October.

Oh, and I lost all three of my football picks. Meh.

Basketball starts tomorrow night - I'm hoping my daily fantasy projections can give me an edge this year.

Chronic Fatigue

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:19:00 +0000

I just haven't felt really energized since last week. I'm getting things done, but it's been a drag on me.

I had a losing night in fantasy hockey on Thursday. I pulled the "bizarro" perfecto on Snapdraft, finishing last in every contest, including three 25-players. It's been a long time since I pulled an "oh fer" over there.

Football picks: CFL, Montreal (-3.5) @ Winnipeg. I'll ride the Al's all the way to the post-season. NCAA, Temple @ Toledo (-2.5). Another MAC coin flip. NFL, Falcons (+4) @ Cowboys. I like the coaching matchup for Atlanta. [2009 YTD 13-11.]

My Desktop Is Dead, I'm Still Alive

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:22:00 +0000

The main hard drive on my PC is fried, I cannot get it to load any OS. Time for a replacement. Living off the netbook for the time being.

It was a very strange week all around. My recent illness was not the flu - I didn't have any respiratory distress, but I did have all of the other symptoms: fever, shakes, sweats, chills, etc. I'm still feeling a little lethargic, but good enough to get around.

Obviously, I didn't get around to making any football picks last week.

In my fantasy world, I have been CRUSHING (perhaps wafflecrushing?) fantasy hockey all around. I believe I have won outright 24 of my last 25 contests on FSL. Snapdraft has been almost as good. One night recently was a perfecto, going 15 of 15, which included three 25-player victories.

Week 6 football was a mixed bag, but a profitable one. I eked out a winner on FSL, cashing in 12 of 31 contests for a meager $12 profit.

On Fan Duel I was destroyed in all 5 auto-draft contests. I picked Aaron Rodgers first, so all of my opponents got Jones-Drew 2nd and Tom Brady later. (I do have an outside shot at one victory if Antonio Gates scores 10 points tonight.)

However, On Snapdraft I had another huge day. I'm on pace to win around 25 of my 30 contests, which won't be settled until after Monday Night Football.

My most impressive feat of the weekend was winning a 25-player multi on FSL without Tom Brady on my roster. That certainly shows the strength of my daily fantasy projections.

Blech.

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:23:00 +0000

I've managed to come down with flu-like symptoms. (I hope it's not the VH1-N1... fever, chills, shakes and Flava of Love re-runs.) All kidding aside, I'm not functioning very well right now.

I wanted to post in detail my weekly results, but this will have to suffice for now:

1) I lost some on FSL last weekend.
2) I've won a bunch on Snapdraft this past week.
3) I've decided to stop playing the Sundays w/ Dr. Pauly promo. I'll explain why later, but the short answer is: I'm quitting while I'm ahead.

I'm off to search for OTC remedies. Do they make Jager-quil? I need some sleep.

Football Threecast

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 15:43:00 +0000

Football picks: CFL, Calgary @ Montreal (-5.5). Thanksgiving special, take the Al's at home. NCAA, Auburn (-1) @ Arkansas. Coaching is the difference. NFL, Patriots (-3) @ Broncos. A healthy WR corps should carry New England. [2009 YTD 12-9.]

Snapdraft 100% Reload Bonus

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:59:00 +0000

I'm not sure this applies to everyone, but I got this email from snapdraft recently:

"Dear Valued User,

Thank you for returning to SnapDraft!

As a reward for playing, we're offering a very special, one-time deal.

We will match your deposit 100%. Yes, if you deposit $10, we will match that with a $10 promotional credit of our own. If you deposit $20, we will match that with a $20 promotional credit (Limit of $100 promotional credit match.)

Hurry now, offer ends 10/9/09 5PM ET.

If you want to take advantage of this great offer, email us at concierge@fanball.com.

Thank you again and good luck!

The SnapDraft Team"

That ought to compensate for a few months of slightly higher rake.

Football picks coming soon.

Fantasy Musings

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 18:15:00 +0000

I had a decent Sunday, it was very profitable. On FSL I cashed in 25 of 35 contests for an ROI of +102.90%. My Snapdraft contests have not settled yet, but I expect I didn't do as well over there. I scored well in SWDP but didn't cash. I'm 4th overall with one week to go.

In daily fantasy site news:

-It appears Draftbug has stopped offering contests altogether. I don't know if that platform will remain active... I imagine it could disappear any day.

-Snapdraft seems to have reduced/eliminated their freerolls, replacing them with "100% payout" contests (similar to FSL $1 contests). I'm not sure if this is to combat multi-accounting, or perhaps they just got tired of giving away free money.

-Fan Duel has launched salary cap contests to go with their auto draft offerings. All of the contests are HU, but I'm really impressed with the site. I hope to play there much more in the future.

My desktop is still running, but slower than I would like. So I'm sticking to smaller posts until the issue is resolved.

Carry on.

Technology Is My Friend?

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 23:52:00 +0000

Computers problems at about defcon 3. Here's all I got for now:

Football picks: CFL, Saskatchewan @ BC Lions (pick). Coin flip, you know the drill. NCAA, Air Force @ Navy (-2.5). Gotta like the Midshipmen at home. NFL, Cowboys (-3) @ Broncos. Barring a snowstorm, should be an easy Dallas win. [2009 YTD 10-8.]

All Systems Go!

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 16:50:00 +0000

I had a quiet and comfortable weekend. I managed to break my CFL losing streak, hitting all three of my football picks.

In the fantasy world, things are also turning up positive. This weekend I tallied:

5 of 6 wins on Fan Duel, ROI +50.00%.
6 of 10 wins on Snapdraft, ROI +148.89%.
14 of 24 wins (cashes) on Fantasy Sports Live, ROI +65.14%.

If you want results like this, you should subscribe to dailyfantasyprojections.com. I certainly made more profit than the price of a subscription in only ONE DAY.

I managed a decent score in SWDP, but lost to Pauly mostly because my kicker scored a rousing TWO points. Pauly's scored 14 and I lost by 11 - so there's your difference.

They are talking about going to a 40-man multi player for SWDP, paying only 5 spots. I'm really not in favor of this - they would be turning the contest into the lottery style game that Blinders claims to despise about Snapdraft.

If they do this I just may pass on the series and take my chances on the high score prize.

Hockey starts in two days! Woot!

Quickly, Quickly, Football Picks

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 23:28:00 +0000

Very little time this week.

Football picks: CFL, Toronto @ Winnipeg (pick). I'm so cold on this league, fade me. NCAA, Miami @ Virginia Tech (+3). The "U" has difficulties in conference these days. NFL, Bears (-1) @ Seahawks. I don't see a Seattle win without Hasselbeck. [2009 YTD 7-8.]

Is Last Week Over Yet?

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 19:06:00 +0000

It wasn't my worst week by a long shot, but it wasn't a church picnic.

I was nicked and cut all week in fantasy baseball losing just a little bit each day. I managed to put together 5 losers in a row.

On Sunday I was doomed with Tom Brady on 65% of my rosters and Randy Moss on almost all of my rosters. I knew Welker was out but I still thought Brady would put up solid numbers.

Why doesn't Brady throw deep to Randy Moss anymore? Moss is still fast and much taller than the entire Jets secondary.

It looked like New England was playing in a scrimmage game - running practice plays - while the Jets were playing in a regular season game. If I didn't know how much Belichick hates to lose, I'd say the fix was in.

Back on topic - I knew a lousy day by Brady and Moss, plus Chris Johnson's 46 fantasy points pretty much screwed me in any football contest.

On Snapdraft I was 2nd in almost every contest, but 2nd over there is just 1st loser.

I also DQ'd on 2 NASCAR contests when I forgot to fill them out while doing football projections. Ugh.

My only saving grace were the late contests, which I nailed with a 153.5 score. Swept them all. (Heh, if I used that roster in all of my contests I'd be flush today. C'est la vie.)

Overall I was 9 of 35 contests for a ROI of -42.53%. Good to get the 1st loser of the season out of the way, right? (For enquiring minds, I was 13 winners and 4 losers last football season.)

I lost ground in SWDP by only putting up 82.9 points. I'm about 50 points out of 1st, which might be insurmountable since Pauly subscribes to dailyfantasyprojections.com.

It was nice to see that the other few active subscribers did well yesterday. Even though I picked poorly, the projections do work.

Fantasy Trash Talking? (Plus Picks)

noreply@blogger.com (Buffalo66) — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:28:00 +0000

When it comes to trash talking, I leave it to the egomaniacs. I'm not very good at it.

In fact, I just don't understand why people trash talk in daily fantasy games. Once your rosters are locked in, you have zero control over the outcome. Either your players perform, or they don't. Sometimes they suck.

My point is that there is no real tilt factor involved. If you trash talk to try and tilt a player, he will likely not want to play again, or probably play you better than before (by taking more time to study his/her picks).

Anyone who knows even a LITTLE about fantasy gaming knows there will be nights when you're just clobbered. There are winning streaks and losing streaks, just like poker.

If you play 2000 contests in a year and win 53% of the time, you will lose 940 times. Just sayin'.

So talking smack by beating me (or anyone) on a given night in one contest is vexing and apparently self-indulgent. Like I said before, ego maniacal.

Here's a tease: I have been preparing a challenge for those who think my fantasy prognostications are nothing but hooey. More to come in the next few months.

Football Picks: CFL, Edmonton @ Saskatchewan (-3.5). Another nail biter expected, take the 'Riders at home. NCAA, Cincinnati (-1) @ Oregon St. There are way too many offensive weapons to keep the Beavers close. NFL, Seahawks (+1) @ 49ers. San Fran is improved, but Seattle is better. [2009 YTD 6-6.]