Buffalo Hold 'Em

Fantasy Sports Grinding: The Wheat Thin Example

2012-01-25T08:31:00.000-08:00

So there's a new Condia interview out, where he claims to have put his "entire life savings" on the line in weeks 1 & 2 of NFL. I don't buy it for one second. He was crushed in week 2, so that would have completely crippled his bankroll for the rest of the season.

I'm not trying to take away anything from Condia, he is an excellent fantasy player. The point I'm trying to make is that the industry will always promote the biggest rake generators over the players with superior ROI.

This is why the RG rankings are so flawed. They discount multiple tourney cashes, while crediting every HU cash. When I put seven top 20 finishes in a 2500+ player tourney, only one of my cashes count towards the rankings. (I only entered 24 times, less than 1% of the total entries.)

Both RG and the contest sites have a specific reason for promoting the biggest rake generators: It makes them more money. They want you to shoot for the leader board, because you will spend more of your money to get there.

Let me give you a real world example of the same concepts. Wheat Thins.

In terms of Wheat Thins, Condia is the person who buys the most Wheat Thins in the land. The maker of Wheat Thins notices this and decides to use him to promote their product. They might feature him in a commercial or give him some award for consuming the most Wheat Thins.

"Look how great Wheat Thins are! He spends so much on them, they must be awesome!"

However, a good ROI player is the person who spends the least per box of Wheat Thins. He might not have as many Wheat Thins, but he will never need the huge bankroll to buy the amount desired.

There is absolutely no incentive for the maker of Wheat Thins to acknowledge or promote this person. They want you to spend more!

Regardless of what RG or any contest site says, they do not want to help you maximize profits. They want you to spend... In order to achieve some ranking that has no monetary reward.

Those badges & freerolls don't usually end up on your 1099, unless you win. And that's a BIG if.

Think about it.

I'm going to Vegas for two weeks starting tomorrow. Follow my twitter page for picks & updates.

The First Stop On My Journey Is Home

2012-01-18T06:23:00.000-08:00

I finally get to start my nomadic journey today. Surprisingly, I'm traveling back to CNY to visit some friends & family.

I have a relative in the hospital and I want to make sure he's doing OK. Other than a couple of good meals, this is a chance to unwind away from my PC.

I have a short list of cities I want to visit before spring arrives. I haven't booked much of the travel yet but it's just a matter of logistics at this point.

I cashed out the majority of my fantasy bankroll and would be surprised if I played much going forward until baseball. Maybe some tournaments, if anything.

I'll probably sneak in some horse betting for sure.

Right now I'm focused on looking for the next great opportunity in my life. I can always come right back to this.

I'll keep you posted.

I Think It's Time For A Walkabout

2012-01-11T08:07:00.000-08:00

After a great December I still find myself in a big hole for the new year. While I have only given back 25% of last month's profits, it's an unusual situation to be down this deep early in a month.

I also find myself stymied with current daily fantasy options before me. I have been working hard at NBA because that is where the money flows. My results have been fair at best, losing quite a few close games. It seems to come down to 3v3 or even 1v1 every night, thanks to roster duplication (stemming from obvious value).

NHL is pretty much fucked for the rest of the year. The traffic has completely disappeared at high stakes and the tournament prize pools have been shrinking. My research time is better spent on hoops, where a $10 entry can win $1600 as opposed to $300 in hockey.

Faced with spending three months working the sport I like least, I'm considering taking a "walkabout".

Since I'm not an Aboriginal Australian (and I don't want to offend any), I'm using the North American version. It's an interruption of work to go on a nomadic journey, sometimes of a spiritual nature.

I think it might be time for me to see what's out there for a bit.

I have struggled with making some life decisions for a few months. I like my life and I like living in Buffalo. But I also might be sacrificing some great opportunities that lie elsewhere.

There are better places for me to handle my health issues. There are places that would allow me greater sports investing. I'm guessing there are places that would make life more comfortable for me, such as a warmer climate.

I just need to go see for myself. Figure things out.

So I'll probably play a light schedule of fantasy contests while I book my travel. I want to go where the wind takes me for awhile.

More on the subject soon.

OT: The Lauren Situation

2012-01-03T14:34:00.000-08:00

Sorry if I've neglected this space for a bit. It was a busy month, although not with the usual holiday BS one would expect.

I actually had my best personal month fantasy-wise, although New Year's weekend was a huge let down. While December was a cash cow, January already looks like a hole I'll have to dig out from under.

I've been struggling for a few weeks over writing this post. It's personal. I don't like to go off point too much here. I try to protect my privacy somewhat, but I think writing about what's going on in my life helps me process things.

For the first time in a LONG time, I let myself get involved in a relationship. To be honest, I've been doing much more end of life planning than the "build a life together" stuff. I know what a hassle closing an estate can be - I want to be prepared for that when the other shoe drops on me.

Most of my friends that have asked for relationship advice know my oft quoted mantra, "Relationships are overrated." I have had little to no success in this area and the majority of my social circle haven't fared much better. I see the misery a soured affair brings to one of my crew.

And then, I met Lauren.

Somehow this woman comes into my life. Very attractive, age appropriate, not perfect by any means. I never spent time with her considering the prospect of a relationship. But she always managed to say the things I always looked for in a prospective mate.

If possibility was a locked door, she found the crack in it and busted it wide open. My usual pessimistic self was put on the back burner for a more optimistic version.

After about two months in, things began to unravel. While I never asked for a committed relationship, Lauren's words didn't jibe with her actions. My Spidey sense started tingling and what was her huge house of cards came crashing down.

Simply put, this woman was (is) a compulsive liar. She completely deceived me as to what was going on in her life, so much so that she ended up in jail for the last week. It's really too bad, because her honesty at some point would've ended up with me helping her probably avoiding that whole situation. Now it's out of my hands.

I struggle with the notion of how much of her was genuine towards me. 50%? 10%? Zero? Who really knows.

The only positive thing I can take from this is that deep down... Way down, I'm still open to not living my life alone. I accept that I'll most likely spend the rest of my years riding solo. But it's nice to think that I'm not totally shut off to the opportunity, should one arise.

Now back to our regularly scheduled blogging.

Update On My World Championship Challenge

2011-12-01T08:12:00.000-08:00

Well, it has been about six months since I offered up the $5k bonus fantasy sports challenge.

I've had five serious offers to take me on, but none of them are willing to challenge me based on the terms originally outlined.

The biggest obstacle so far seems to be the draft format. I know salary cap games are more popular, but why would that matter to an experienced player? Draft games give each user a unique roster. This requires you to pick depth.

Playing a cap game with a shallow roster will result in each side having many identical players. That's flipping coins, and I'm not flipping coins with a $5k overlay against me.

I will still consider playing cap games with the deepest rosters possible. However, all sports must be included.

Other players have asked me to run the challenge at lower stakes, yet they still want the full $5k bonus. So I'm supposed to risk this money without any chance to make any money myself? I'll pass on that scenario.

Almost all of the potential challengers want to drop the NASCAR portion. It is a legitimate fantasy sport, although not a popular one in the daily format. I think the more sports in the challenge, the better - I'd be willing to add additional disciplines, such as golf or college sports.

Finally, In my most recent offer to a prospective challenger, I've offered:

-To escrow the entire bonus up front
-Set up the challenge RAKE FREE for the challenger.

IMO, that is a tremendous offer. In fact, it reduces my earnings potential by almost 10%. It shows I'm willing to give up that much to make this happen.

So far, this has not been good enough terms for any daily fantasy player. I don't really know why, it seems all of the risk is on me.

Am I A Fantasy Sports Bully?

2011-11-25T17:57:00.000-08:00

Recently, I was called out in the Fan Duel chat area as a horrible fantasy player. My usual immediate response is to offer up a $535 matchup. If I am so bad, why would you not accept? Consider this:

-You would WANT to play a bad player at the highest stakes possible, to bust that player the quickest.

-You would WANT to play a bad player at the highest stakes possible, to spend the LEAST rake to bust him/her.

Now I understand that some players cannot afford to play that high, but why not counter offer with a $270 or $109? At least some meaningful stakes with reduced rake?

All I'm looking for is consistent high stakes action. Over time, my EV increases if I get my money in with minimal drag of the rake.

I realize some players just do this for fun, but I'm looking to use my edges to make some money. I have a profit motive.

Maybe some people just like to talk a good game.

So tell me, am I just being a bully while trying to defend myself here? Is there a better way to go about getting high stakes games?

A Quick Tought About Rake & Bankroll Management

2011-11-22T14:43:00.000-08:00

I was discussing bankroll management with a few other players and was very surprised at how varied players are at growing their rolls.

When I started out I used a 20 buy-in strategy to determine my stakes. At the time, I was pretty much forced to play HU contests with small entry fees.

With the explosion of player traffic, I can now afford to play much bigger stakes with less rake.

What about a newb starting out now? How should they attack the lobby?

I think the best value for a low stakes player is the large field tournament. You can even afford to drop multiple entries in a cheap buy-in. The potential ROI is much better than HU, even though the rake is similar.

However, if you're concentrating on HU, you might be better served to play higher sooner. On Fan Duel, the rake is identical from $1-$50 games. Only at $109 does the rake begin to drop.

It is a steep slope to climb before you can comfortably play without risk of ruin.

Some players told me they would only put 5% of their balance in play on a given night. I find that too conservative. The remaining money is just sitting there, not working for you. Besides, you can deposit instantly and withdraw almost as fast.

I think you should always have a portion of your bankroll aside to jump on a juicy deposit bonus. Every bit the site gives back will help combat the rake.

I guess the point is this: Consider how to get to the lower rake games the quickest, minimizing the drag rake will have on your bankroll.

Fantasy Hockey Tournaments Are Suffering

2011-11-15T05:30:00.000-08:00

I was thrilled with the increase in traffic for this NHL season. With the expansion of the daily fantasy player base, it was a certainty that fantasy hockey tournaments would increase over last year.

However, while NHL tournaments have increased in frequency, they have not increased in quality.

Fan Duel has rolled out a tournament schedule with a mixture of single entry and multiple entry events.

I'm disappointed to say they the buy-ins and the field sizes almost preclude me from playing them anymore.

For example, the "Save" tournament offers a $5 entry and a field size of 167. If you finish 6th, likely scoring way above expectation, you win $30. Now playing a generic $5, 10 player contest can win you $45 by finishing 1st - a much more likely scenario.

So which is the better value?

I'm sad to report that the larger tourneys are filling up with regularity, but the prize pools have not grown. The $10 buy-in remains at $2500 and the $25 buy-in remains at $3000. They did run a $50 tourney last week but I have no idea if that will become a regular event.

Fan Duel has done an excellent job of building market share by offering the biggest prize pools in each sport. But it seems with hockey they either don't care, or they are trying to steer that money into other sports, such as college hoops.

I believe that if the prizes are big enough, any sport will attract the "smart" money.

Anatomy Of A Downswing

2011-11-08T13:59:00.000-08:00

I've been meaning to write about one of my least favorite topics this week. Losing.

Simply stated, I got my butt whipped pretty hard the first week of November. I was shut out in week 8 of football, a rarity for me.

Over that same week, I experienced a six day losing streak in hockey. It was a tough stretch. I was a little unlucky with some injuries and some bad plus/minus scenarios.

There aren't many regular fantasy players that like to talk about losing. Even after 5 years, it still stings when you ride that variance roller coaster towards the bottom.

I continued playing well within my bankroll, not chasing losses. I finally broke through with a winning night on Saturday, putting up a solid score.

One silver lining is my continued success against Rudzia555 & Ohmsy. If they hadn't shied away from my high stakes games, I might be behind there too.

However, I'm happy to report that I crushed in week 9 NFL, gaining back all of my losses for the month. Maybe this week the good variance will shine on me.

I'm hoping the addition of NCAA basketball will give me the diversity of contests needed to avoid another losing streak for some time to come.

I Take Issue With The "Degen" Monicker

2011-10-31T11:23:00.000-07:00

This is something I've been thinking about for quite some time.

In the gambling world amongst poker players and all types of bettors, degen is tossed around as a term of affection for action junkies. Some online forums even have their own "degen index."

Degen is a shortened form of degenerate. It doesn't matter if you're talking about degenerative gamblers or degenerative diseases. Degenerate implies that something declines or deteriorates.

I've never considered myself a degen and I'm slightly offended when someone calls me that.

I've been involved in gambling/gaming semi-professionally for a few years. In most of my disciplines I've grown to play bigger stakes. Does that make me a degen? Hell, no. In fact, it's quite the opposite.

My poker experiences trained me to be a bankroll nit. What this means (for you non-gamblers) is that I protected myself from going broke. I experienced some swings up and down. When I was losing I jumped down in stakes to ensure I always had funds to keep going.

That experience allowed me to nurse my cumulative bankroll to it's current state, where I can play the highest stakes in fantasy contests.

Any sports investing (horses, sports betting, fantasy) requires enough bankroll to withstand variance. It also requires willpower to get your money in at the right times. Betting only horses with value. Avoiding high juice/vig. Avoiding high rake in fantasy tournaments. No chasing losses.

Basically, anyone calling me a degen is trying to tell me I don't know what I'm doing. While I certainly don't know everything - to quote Jay-Z, "I know a 'lil bit".

I do think there are some areas of my life where I might be considered a true "degen". Probably my declining health at least. I've definitely taken risks there. I guess that makes Steve Jobs a degen too.

BBV: Blogger Block & Variance

2011-10-23T22:54:00.000-07:00

Some of you might have noticed I haven't posted in awhile. The last few days I can blame on my ISP. Try entering 100+ fantasy football rosters on your cell phone. It's a bit stressful.

Otherwise, I just didn't feel like blogging much. Fantasy hockey has started up and that gets me good action almost every day. Fantasy football occupies most of my weekend and the tournaments are getting bigger prize pools each week. It's important to keep my focus on that.

My biggest beef with hockey so far is that Fan Duel had frozen the price movement of the player pool for the first 2+ weeks of the season. They have really tried to nurse interest in their hockey product, it seems they wanted to make the bargains so obvious even the newbies would recognize them.

I don't like it, but I understand if they are trying to suck the skill out of the game somewhat. The good fantasy hockey players are REALLY good.

Now the prices have finally started to move. Hopefully these cap games will become a little more skill based.

It's been a pretty amazing fall so far. Week 4 of NFL was a personal best for me. Between my own play and the players I stake, we had a record breaking net profit day. (Of course, week 5 was my worst week of the season so far, but I only gave back about $800.)

Hockey started out very strong as well. I've had two winning streaks over $1k, each followed by downswings around $500. Already a roller coaster less than three weeks in. Buckle up.

If you haven't heard yet, Fan Duel is launching fantasy college basketball this season. They are only spreading games between the top 6 power conferences. But I expect this to be a much better product than the NBA game, mostly because the injury info will be much more reliable. (The scoring table will be the same.)

Looks like it's going to be a busy winter after all!

Fan Duel Hockey 101

2011-10-05T07:29:00.000-07:00

Here's a fluff piece I wrote on Fan Duel Insider for fantasy hockey newbies:

Fan Duel Hockey 101

As the baseball season winds down and the NBA lockout continues, hockey becomes the only sport that is currently running contests on a daily basis. Without any other options to get your daily Fan Duel fix, here’s a primer for you Duelers trying hockey for the first time.

Lesson #1: Everybody plays. NHL teams dress 20 players: 12 forwards, 6 defense and 2 goalies. With the exception of the backup goalie, everyone who suits up will get significant time on the ice. Star forwards will often average 20 minutes of ice time and some of the best d-men will log 25 minutes or more.

Pay attention to which players get more time, because they will have the most opportunity to put up points for your squad.

Lesson #2: Make sure your goalie is starting. Goaltenders are the most consistent scorers in Fan Duel hockey. Just like you would check on a starting pitcher in baseball, look around for confirmation that your pick will be in the net. Starting goalies usually play the entire game, only getting pulled if they perform very poorly.

It stings to get zero points from your goalie, just because you didn’t double check his status.

Lesson #3: Empty net goals can decide your contest. NHL games are very close affairs, many decided by one goal. One of the most exciting moments in the game is when the team that is behind pulls their goalie for an extra forward. This 6 on 5 scenario often results in a goal for one team, usually in the final seconds of the game.

This last second scoring is one of the things that makes Fan Duel hockey so exciting. You’re never out of it until the very end.

Lesson #4: Penalty minutes are good for you. Having a referee escort your player to the box might not seem like a good thing, but it helps your team. Fan Duel scoring awards 0.25 points for each penalty minute received.

There will be nights when teams like to drop the gloves and fight each other. On those occasions a player with major PIMs might earn you more than a scoring forward. There are many value priced players out there with a propensity to earn penalty minutes.

Lesson #5: Learn how plus/minus is scored. One of the great equalizers in Fan Duel hockey is the plus/minus scoring. It’s a simple concept: When a team scores a goal, each skater on the ice for the scoring team gets a +1. Conversely, the skaters that were scored upon get a -1. However, it is also important to note that no plus/minus scoring occurs during power play goal situations.

With the potential to both gain or lose points, plus/minus scoring can help you make a significant comeback in your contests.

Let’s drop the puck and enjoy Fan Duel hockey all winter long!

Buffalo66 is a long time Fan Duel member who runs several fantasy web sites of his own.

Condia: Playing Without A Profit Motive?

2011-09-27T10:23:00.000-07:00

This month the DFS community was all abuzz with the high volume play of Condia, who seems to be a football specialist.

By taking up so many games in the lobby, some of the bigger sites instituted a "Condia rule", which limits the amount of entries at buy ins below $50 or so.

Rotogrinders even has Condia at the top of their rankings. Curiously though, Condia did not score very well in week 2 or week 3, so I question whether he is even profitable at this point.

It also shows that the RG rankings are a complete sham. If a player places 4 top ten scores in a large field, only his top cash is counted. However, Condia could be losing big, but is still ranked #1 solely on his heads up volume. There is ZERO skill involved in that.

But the more interesting point is Condia's motive to play such a high volume. It appears that his bankroll actually surpasses what he might win in the future. In other words, there is a diminishing returns scenario facing Condia. Against the rake, it's unlikely he gets profitable once he has a bad week (which he's already experienced).

So why does he continue to play a large volume? It seems that he doesn't need the money. It seems he doesn't need to get even. It seems he doesn't want the attention, rarely chatting or corresponding with other players.

So I'm stumped at Condia's true motive for playing daily fantasy. He is an enigma wrapped in a riddle dipped in white chocolate.

As for me, I had a very small losing week in NFL, my first this season. I usually average 4 losing weeks each NFL season, so this is not uncommon. Hockey starts up next week and that will keep me very busy for the rest of the year.

Some Weeks Are Better Than Others

2011-09-19T07:20:00.000-07:00

Sometimes I think life is a series of trade-offs. It's not a box of chocolates. You know what you're gonna get. You just don't know when (or how much).

Health wise, I've felt pretty crappy lately. I've really slowed down in the past year or so. While I can still get out and ride, I have to let some other things go. Perfect example: Passing up an invitation to a laser tag birthday party.

Fantasy wise, It was a shining week. I concentrated on NFL and it paid off handsomely. While I didn't win any tournaments, I placed 2nd in two, and if I'm lucky enough to hold those spots I'll post a beautiful +200% ROI for the week.

So would I trade my fantasy winnings for feeling better? I guess when I'm at my most painful I'd probably say yes.

But If I can keep making it to next week, there's always a possibility that week will be even better.

My Evil Twin Is Badder Than Yours (Also Probably In Prison)

2011-09-14T11:24:00.000-07:00

"Sometimes you might be walking around lucky and not even know it." -Jay Trotter, in the film Let It Ride

I actually WON this weekend by taking a bad beat. I didn't lose $120 on the $420 I planned on wagering in Canada.

That's because Canada doesn't want me anymore. I was refused entry and politely asked never to return.

I've always had a tricky time with my trips to the great white north. I had Blue Jays tickets for a couple years (post 9/11) and always seemed to get detained for some reason. I just summed it up to the fact I was usually traveling solo, and thus more likely fitting some profile.

What I didn't realize until this past weekend is I fit the perfect profile of a really bad dude.

I have the bad luck of having a very common name. I have the REALLY bad luck of having the same name and birth date of a person that has committed multiple felonies.

I want to be very clear here - that person is not me.

So sitting in immigration on Saturday, waiting for this mistaken identity to sort itself out, I get asked, "Have you ever been arrested?"

(Sigh.) "Yes, I have. I was arrested about 15 years ago on a traffic stop. Although I have never been convicted of a crime."

Another 20 minutes pass. I get summoned to the counter:

"The good news John is you're not the John we originally thought you were. The bad news is your FBI file shows you convicted of a crime. Therefore you are barred from entering Canada for life, pending a criminal rehabilitation."

I was told if I ever tried to enter Canada again I would be arrested. Then I was escorted back the the US entry point.

The rest of my day I walked around dumbfounded. There is an FBI file on me. It says I was convicted of a crime, when I was not. And the the Canadian government also considers me a criminal.

Now I readily admit to being arrested when I was younger. Thanks to circumstances and a great lawyer I got off with a moving violation. But I can honestly say under penalty of perjury that I have never been convicted of a crime.

The funny part is all of this happened because I went there to bet on football LEGALLY. If I use an online book or a local bookie, I'm breaking the law.

I guess if I turn my back toward Canada, that means I'm facing in the direction of Las Vegas.

Football Picks (Now Mythical)

2011-09-10T10:08:00.000-07:00

Due to my now nebulous immigration status, I wasn't able to get my picks in today. but since I put all of the time in on these, I'll share the wealth. Let's see if I win any imaginary Canadian Sklansky bucks.

NCAA:
Stanford -21.5 / Nevada +27.5 $30 to pay $90
Alabama o42 / Virginia u52.5 $30 to pay $99.90
FAU o49 / Virginia u52.5 $30 to pay $94.50
FAU o49 /Tennessee o56 $30 to pay $94.50
Alabama o42/ Auburn o57.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Ohio St. o52.5 / Tennessee o56 $30 to pay $99.90
Nebraska o51 / Auburn o57.5 $30 to pay $97.13
Ohio St. o52.5 / TCU o49.5 $30 to pay $97.13
TCU o49.5 / Nebraska o51 $30 to pay $91.88

NFL:
Colts +9 / Chargers -8.5 $30 to pay $90
Falcons o40.5 / Patriots u45.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Falcons o40.5 / Giants o38 $30 to pay $102.68
Giants o38 / Raiders u40.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Patriots u45.5 / Raiders u40.5 $30 to pay $102.68

Total wagered $420

I'm Doing What I Was Born To Do

2011-09-06T10:53:00.000-07:00

I have to admit, I've had a significant identity crisis since my father passed away and I returned to Buffalo.

What the hell am I? When people ask me, "What do you do?", I always have a pause before my answer.

I work for myself. I'm an entrepreneur. I run a web site. I do Internet marketing. But never have I publicly said, "I'm a professional gambler."

Now I'm just beginning to realize that's exactly what I've become.

Since I was a small child I've been drawn to games - especially games involving uncertainty. Roll the dice in Risk. Toss dimes or rings at the state fair. Flip for your favorite baseball card.

I've also been drawn to both sports and math. I spent much more time looking at the backs of those cards, memorizing player stats. I spent hours alone playing stat driven sports games, APBA, Stratomatic and many more, including my all time favorites: SI superstar baseball and Mattel talking football. I'm quite sure I'd still be playing those today if I owned them.

As a teenager I developed a poker habit, playing a roving home game with many of my high school friends. When we first got cable TV I was only 15, but all of a sudden live sports was unleashed in my household every night. I also started computing, playing almost any sports game on the Commodore 64. I even found time to play a few fantasy leagues.

All of this was living for me, but it was also training. I learned strategy, decision making, risk and reward.

Fast forward 15 years. After a business degree, a counseling degree and several boring corporate jobs, I discovered online poker (and sports betting). While a nebulous legality surrounded the entire world of Internet commerce, I knew this was the future of gaming.

Out of the ashes of online poker, the phoenix of daily fantasy sports was born. I caught this wave right at the beginning and experienced consistent success. Only my poor bankroll and my family issues kept me from taking on anyone bigger than myself.

So now we are knocking on 2012 and I'm taking a personal assessment. I can say with full honesty:

-I am a lifetime winner at online poker against the rake, without rakeback or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime winner at sports betting, without rebates or rewards.
-I am a lifetime winner at daily fantasy sports (all sports), without rakeback or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime winner at horse betting, without rebates or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime LOSER at slots, down $220, two sessions over a ten year period. I'll never play slots again.
-I am a successful marketer for legal Internet gaming sites.
-I successfully stake fantasy players, all of my horses have turned profit every year so far.
-I've created a successful projection model that continues to evolve, it has helped make money in multiple gaming areas.

Yet given all of these factors, I'm still NOT the house. I'm the action maker, not the action taker.

I guess this means I'm a gambler. Although I don't think what I do is any different than any individual investor.

I'm just doing what I've always tried to do: Get my money in with the best of it.

Why the Fan Duel FFFC Isn't Worth It

2011-08-30T17:17:00.001-07:00

Those of you that follow my fantasy exploits know I play a lot of daily (weekly) fantasy football. And if you followed me last season, you'll remember that I chose not to participate in the FanDuel Fantasy Football Championship. There were two main reasons for this:

1) I had already booked a trip to Las Vegas, the week immediately after the finals.
2) Only the top 3 finalists won anything significant. All other finalists won only $500 for beating a field of 600+.

You also might remember that I fielded scores high enough to win a finalist seat on 3 different weekends. I'm not upset about that at all. The contest had a shitty prize structure. I chose not to participate.

Fan Duel has relaunched the FFFC with much bigger prizes. They also have much bigger traffic. And I will admit their prize structure is not as bad as last year.

However, I will not try for a finals seat in the FFFC once again. Here are my reasons:

1) Once again the finals will be in Las Vegas, where the finalist must pay taxes on his/her trip.
2) You must do marketing for Fan Duel. It is an obligation that must be fulfilled to accept any prize money. And there is no specific end to your obligation - It could run on for a year or so.
3) The rake on the FFFC qualifiers will be obscene. I know they have to recoup money to pay out the finalists, but your money will be better spent elsewhere.
4) There are so many football large field tournaments on Fan Duel, it could be argued that you can actually win more that the 2011 FFFC champion (over the course of the whole season) just by concentrating on the other events.

Now I realize there will be plenty on dead money in the FFFC weekly qualifiers, but there will be the sharks too. I'd rather take them on the the capped large field events, where I know what the maximum rake will be on each entry.

The Counter Intuitive Nature Of Handicapping Superfectas

2011-08-22T11:04:00.000-07:00

There are many great thoroughbred handicappers out there. Heck, I don't even claim to be a good handicapper.

There is also obvious value in picking winners. By this I mean the horse that finishes 1st in a race. With many carryovers on horizontal bets, there is added value in capping the pick 4-5-6 type wagers.

However, I'm in my own little 10 cent superfecta world. Playing this vertical wager has made me money, but it takes a completely different view to be successful.

I find the average field in races I bet is 8 selections. If I'm looking to cash a superfecta, I'm not looking to pick a winner, but instead picking the top half of the field.

I'll admit my methods are rudimentary. I rank the horses on several metrics, and the top four become my choices. Sometimes it's easier to eliminate the "also rans" than it is to make that 4th selection.

I also like to pick my horses without influence of the morning line or the betting pool. If public money goes against my choices, that's OK - it will pay that much sweeter if it comes in.

Now just because you picked the best 4 horses in the field, that doesn't mean they will finish 1-4. You hope the cream rises to the top and none of your horses quit down the stretch.

Superfectas are high variance and you can go quite awhile between cashes. If you are hitting 3 of the 4 regularly, then you're probably doing something right. Just be patient and the big winners will happen.

Aside from a carryover situation, I don't think there's a better value at the track than the superfecta. You could play a ten race card for $24, which a legitimate shot to make a few hundred dollars. Just about anybody can afford that action.

Let Me Calculate That Rake For You

2011-08-19T07:27:00.000-07:00

It amazes me that most fantasy players have absolutely no idea how much rake they are paying in daily contests. So as a favor to all of my readership, I've decided to break down the rake for you on the major sites:

Fan Duel:
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$10 to win $18 = $9 + $1 rake = 11.11% rake
$25 to win $45 = $22.50 + $2.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$50 to win $90 = $45 + $5 rake = 11.11% rake
$109 to win $200 = $100 + $9 rake = 9.00% rake
$270 to win $500 = $250 + $20 rake = 8.00% rake

Draftstreet:
$2 to win $3.40* = $1.70 + $.30 rake = 17.65% rake
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$11 to win $20 = $10 + $1 rake = 10.00% rake
$22 to win $40 = $20 + $2 rake = 10.00% rake
$55 to win $100 = $50 + $5 rake = 10.00% rake
$109 to win $200 = $100 + $9 rake = 9.00% rake
$215 to win $400 = $200 + $15 rake = 7.50% rake

Daily Joust:
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$11 to win $20 = $10 + $1 rake = 10.00% rake
$22 to win $40 = $20 + $2 rake = 10.00% rake
$55 to win $100 = $50 + $5 rake = 10.00% rake
$110 to win $200 = $100 + $10 rake = 10.00% rake

Fantasy Sports Live:
$2.70 to win $5 = $2.50 + $.20 rake = 8.00% rake
$5.40 to win $10 = $5 + $.40 rake = 8.00% rake
$10.80 to win $20 = $10 + $.80 rake = 8.00% rake
$21.60 to win $40 = $20 + $1.60 rake = 8.00% rake
$32.40 to win $60 = $30 + $2.40 rake = 8.00% rake
$54 to win $100 = $50 + $4 rake = 8.00% rake
$107 to win $200 = $100 + $7 rake = 7.00% rake
$213 to win $400 = $200 + $13 rake = 6.50% rake
$265 to win $500 = $250 + $15 rake = 6.00% rake

You can see that Fantasy Sports Live has the lowest rake by a wide margin.

So now you know how much rake you're paying. Does this change where you play or how much you play?

(*Draftstreet doesn't offer $2 HU games, but that is the percentage of rake on their $2 multi-player contests.)

Should Daily Fantasy Baseball Bother With A Salary Cap?

2011-08-17T13:44:00.000-07:00

The salary caps for fantasy baseball seem way too soft. I'm not sure they should even bother with a cap anymore.

A friend asked me to look over his Fan Duel lineup a few nights ago. It looked something like this:

P - Stud pitcher
C - #3 hitter
1B- Cleanup hitter
2B - Cleanup hitter
SS - Cleanup hitter
3B - Cleanup hitter
LF - #3 hitter
CF - Cleanup hitter
RF - #3 hitter

Seriously? The "cap" allows you to select a stud at every position? Either the pricing is very inefficient or completely off.

DraftStreet is not much better. Even though you are required to pick 14 players for $100k, you can afford both stud pitching and an all-star lineup without having to sacrifice much of anything. Maybe one RP or one utility player.

These games should have tight pricing, making these all-star lineups obsolete. Or go in the other direction and remove the cap altogether.

Tighter caps would also eliminate the "stacked team" strategy. (I'm thrilled that strategy doesn't work in the other sports.)

This is a great example why I only play expert cap games on Fan Duel. It allows me to use my skill advantage to earn some money.

Player Transfers Are Not Needed In Daily Fantasy Sports

2011-08-16T09:51:00.001-07:00

DraftStreet announced today that they are doing away with the player to player transfer feature.

I think this is a good trend for the industry. There are two main reasons for this:

1) It will protect users from getting their funds stolen via hackers; and
2) It will discourage prop betting between users, which is a violation of the terms of use.

As someone who has been a hacking target repeatedly, I approve of this measure. Anyone getting access to my account cannot change any account information without me knowing about it. With transfers, the money would be long gone before I could try to cancel it out.

With paypal accepted at almost every site, there is no reason players cannot use that vehicle to transfer money amongst themselves.

A Little Bit Of Run Good At The Track

2011-08-06T15:56:00.000-07:00

I decided to play some superfectas on a lazy Saturday afternoon. I whiffed completely at Saratoga, but I did manage to bink one at Louisiana Downs:

Not a bad return for about $32 in wagers.

UPDATE: managed to have another big day Monday:

Not as juicy as Saturday, but I'll take it any day of the week.

COO Of Draftstreet Accuses Me Of Multi-Accounting

2011-08-02T12:02:00.000-07:00

Helluva nice birthday present. Got this email today:

Hey John,

I wanted to discuss an issue we have with your DraftStreet Account. You currently have 2 accounts at the same IP address, one of which clearly recruited the other, and only one which plays in leagues. We have made the determination that these accounts belong to the same person, and this violates both our One Account Per User policy as well as our Self Recruiting policy. I will be closing your account under Maggie Sullivan, and would ask that you not create any other aliases in the future. I appreciate your cooperation and understanding in this matter, and wish you the best of luck in DraftStreet leagues moving forward.

Don't hesitate to contact me should you feel we have made in error in our determination.

Sincerely,
--
Michael R Kibort
Chief Operating Officer
Left Tackle LLC

Now, I did ask my sister to sign up for Draftstreet with the sole purpose of recruiting me. To my knowledge AT THE TIME we both signed up this was not a violation of any terms. Who knows, maybe the terms have changed. We also have not shared an IP address. In fact, we live hundreds of miles apart.

Here's my retort to DS:

Hi Michael,

I have no problem with you closing my sister's account, but these accounts have never showed up on the same IP address. We live hundreds of miles apart from each other. It is a false accusation you are making.

I asked her to sign up so she could recruit me, as I am a high volume fantasy player. I have similar deals with most of the contest sites, as I actively play and recruit other players, and I am even staking new players.

Without any commission I lose incentive to play on DS or any contest site for that matter.

I have NEVER violated the one account per user policy, but if I have violated some other terms than I certainly understand the actions you are taking.

Best of luck to you in your endeavors,

Buffalo66

So what do you think? Am I wrong here? Losing out on the commissions is not a big deal to me, the bigger deal is being accused of multi-accounting when I certainly did not.

I guess I'll stick to playing elsewhere.

The Big Announcement: $5000 Bonus For Winning The "World Championship Challenge"

2011-07-27T08:51:00.000-07:00

Buffalo66 Offers $5000 Bonus For Winning “World Championship Challenge” & Title Belt

I've decided to take a personal risk, which I hope will bring some exposure to the daily fantasy sports industry.

I'm amazed to see how DFS has grown in the past few years. There is both a growing player base and growing prize pools. Players can now win more money in a week than I could in all of 2006 or 2007.

However, there is still no direct way to determine who is the best DFS player across all sports. This is one reason why I offered the Buffalo66 Challenge in the past.

Very few people considered my challenge. For some, it just doesn't matter. For others, there was really no financial incentive to take on the challenge.

Today that changes. Out of my own pocket, I will offer a $5000 bonus for anyone who can beat me in a challenge that will recognize the winner as the world champion of DFS.

The World Championship challenge will consist of 60 heads-up DFS contests, 12 in each of the following sports:

-baseball
-football
-basketball
-hockey
-auto racing

Buy-ins for each contest will range from $213-$270 each. Each contest will be a draft format, preventing contestants from having any roster duplication.

As an added bonus, I will also pay out of pocket to have a championship belt crafted, which will be awarded to the winner.

In order to win the $5000 bonus, you must beat me in at least 31 of the 60 contests. Ties do not count.

I will take on anyone who will accept this challenge. However, I can only take on one challenger. If I win the challenge I would be happy to defend my title against another challenger.

If nothing else, I'm hoping that this challenge will foster discussion necessary to bring high stakes, championship quality play to DFS. Perhaps this is a first step towards getting the contest sites to offer a true championship format.

I'm looking forward to a potential match up. Good luck to all!

-John “Buffalo66” Sullivan

Nails In The Offshore Sportsbook Coffin

2011-07-25T07:29:00.000-07:00

With this weekend's announcements of Bet Jamaica closing and The Greek leaving the USA market, most USA punters have almost no reliable options to bet sports online.

It's not just the ability to get money in and out of the offshore books. Now there are fewer "outs". This means fewer books to shop lines and fewer books to lay action when faced with bet limits.

This really leaves USA bettors with Las Vegas as their only legitimate option. And that puts sports betting out of reach for most of us.

Now that the NFL season in on schedule, I may be tempted to try Proline in Ontario.

In the meantime, it looks like daily fantasy sports will be my bottom bitch for the foreseeable future. (Do you know what I am saying?)

Speaking of DFS, I have a pretty big announcement coming soon. Stay tuned.

Fantasy Sports Contests Should Not Be Popularity Contests

2011-07-20T08:26:00.000-07:00

I have two basic points to make, both of which illustrate that the daily fantasy contest sites still don't get the big picture.

Recently, Fan Duel launched a survey about possible changes to their football scoring. Almost unanimously on RG, players commented that they would like to see the kicker position removed, since it was too difficult to project K scoring.

This is ridiculous thinking. Kickers decide NFL contests EVERY WEEK. Should they not also decide fantasy football contests?

Why not just remove the pitcher in fantasy baseball? That is a high variance roster spot.

There is a trend of dumbing down contest scoring to make it easier for the average player. Even on Draftstreet (which is my favorite place to play), the salary cap is too soft. You can afford too many studs and you are left with no difficult decisions to make.

I do understand where the contest sites stand on this. They want to appeal to the average Joe Sixpack fan, who thinks he has a fighting chance to win a large field event. And he does on most sites where the scoring has been simplified.

However, what the sites fail to see is that they are shunning their largest rake generators - players like me. I will spend regularly on high stakes contests, provided they have the appropriate skill level attached.

Who is worth more: Me throwing up $1k in entry fees a day, or 100 others throwing up $10 in entry fees a day. Over almost any time frame I'll still be around, while most of those other 100 players will have moved on from the site.

So listen up, contest sites: Add skill to your contests if you want high stakes action. It's really that simple.

The Time Has Come for T$ In Daily Fantasy Sports

2011-07-11T08:43:00.000-07:00

I've been reading a lot lately about some classic arguments in the daily fantasy sports world. These arguments are basically between the player and site owner/operators.

Argument #1: DFS is not a beatable game because the rake is too high. Bullshit. How do I know the game is beatable? Kaiseroll13, Primetime420, Fredotz23, etc. (Include me too, I've been profitable every year.) It's an indefensible retort, these guys have consistently crushed the games with a 10% rake.

I do think the rake should be reduced even though the game can be beaten at 10%. Rake should be similar to online poker which uses a 5% industry standard.

Argument #2: The rake in DFS is 10% because traffic and/or participation is not at a high enough level to support a 5% rake. Again, bullshit. The sites that run a higher rake are just making a cash grab, plain & simple. There are only a limited number of sites online and they'll stay with higher rake for as long as the market allows it.

Sites like Fantasy Factor and Fan Duel not only charge steep rake, but they also "dumb down" their contests by using simplistic rules. While this might be more user friendly to the novice, it's NOT attractive to a serious, profitable player.

So how can we find a middle ground? We need a way to lower the rake so more players can beat the game, or make their losses less of a burden on their bankroll. A new model is needed to help the operators rake in a less obvious manner.

What we need is T$ in daily fantasy sports.

For those of you that have not played online poker, T$ (tournament dollars) is money that can be spent on the site but cannot be cashed out. The two most popular methods of collecting T$ are:

-Turning in VPP/FT points for T$, or
-Winning a satellite to a bigger tournament and then unregister, thus getting the value of the buy-in in T$.

I do have to give credit to Draftstreet for offering vouchers for their street cred points. this is closest thing to T$ that DFS has right now.

However, we need some new models for the operators to present their product. Here are a few suggestions:

1) Monthly deposit bonuses in T$. This is a simple way to let the player know you are helping him out with the rake. Players can bonus whore to improve thier bankroll, but can't cash out the bonuses. This will hopefully put the player at higher stakes, eventually putting him/her in a position to generate more rake.

2) Allowing players to by T$ at reduced rake. Instead of paying $109 for a buy-in, I could buy a T$ voucher for $105. I end up getting a reduced rake on my buy-in and the site owner is guaranteed I will play a $100 level contest. This is win-win in my book.

3) I have mentioned this dozens of times before: ZOMG Holy Jesus Christ STEPS TOURNAMENTS Please! The site operators have no clue that this is the way to multi-rake players in a T$ format. Here's a quick example:

Step 1) 5-player $5 entry, winner gets $45 T$ entry into step 2.
Step 2) 5-player $45 entry, winner gets $205 T$ entry into step 3.
Step 3) 5-player $205 entry, winner gets $950.

The site gets to market the steps tourney as way to turn $5 into $950. They also get rake the T$ winners at each step.

As for a general view of the rake, I think the sites should rake the bejeezus out of the large field events, but for higher buy-ins or HU, they need to reduce the rake. I shouldn't be paying the same percentage of rake as a $5 game at the $200 level.

Hopefully the better sites will figure this out and it will help the industry as a whole. (Plus it will get Tippy to stop complaining.)

New "Summer of 2011" Buffalo66 Fantasy Sports Challenge

2011-07-08T10:10:00.000-07:00

I've decided to offer another challenge to any of the hard core daily fantasy players out there.

For the remainder of the summer I will take on any player HU in the following format:

(10) $215 baseball contests, and
(10) $213 NASCAR contests.

Although I prefer snake/auto draft formats, I will agree to play salary cap. I would like to play the baseball on Draftstreet and the NASCAR on Fantasy Sports Live.

How about a Friday night baseball followed up by a Saturday NASCAR each week?

Contests must be above $200 buy-in, otherwise it's not worth my time.

I know everyone loves the large field these days, but anyone want to give it a shot?

So What's The Real Gamble?

2011-07-06T05:58:00.000-07:00

Amarillo Slim, who's the butt of many jokes in the modern poker world, gave some sage advice in his book "Play Poker to Win": (I'm paraphrasing) If you're playing poker for money, make sure you will get paid if you win.

I wonder how many modern uber aggro internet pros heeded that advice. (BTW, get that book for the low ball section if you're a mixed games player.)

I bring this up because I've been considering many different projects over the last few months. Some are much more socially acceptable than others. However, judging which angles are the best to play can be very confusing.

Last year I started a restaurant operation in a local bar. Sales were good right out of the gate. However, I had a landlord that didn't honor our agreements, prohibiting growth. Since I was month to month (and not on a lease) it was an easier play shut down my operation and incur a small loss, rather than spend lots of cash to fight for a mild increase in sales.

I've had quite a few friends ask me why I'm not back in the restaurant business. Truthfully, my health just prohibits me from working 70 hour weeks anymore. I have looked for quality people to partner with, but it just hasn't come together.

I've worked online for years, dabbling in various activities such as ebay, poker, fantasy sports and internet marketing. I also have a strong business background and follow the financial markets daily.

I've considered trading currencies on Forex. Commodities also seem to interest me.

The main question I come up with is this: Is playing fantasy sports, Proline, horses or betting offshore actually a better play than gambling with Wall Street?

Currency (and stock exchanges) are very efficient markets with rather high vig. Battling cutting edge technologies and high frequency traders seem to make this a difficult proposition.

Having access to offshore sports books is difficult right now, but still possible. Getting paid is my only real concern here. This is why Proline is so attractive, payouts are guaranteed (although lines are often sub-optimal).

Fantasy sports and horses offer easy access and certain payouts. While both have been profitable for me I'm still apprehensive about risking large sums of money.

It seems that "investing" in Wall Street is the most socially acceptable activity, yet it appears to be the biggest sucker bet.

Which activity do you think is the best/worst gamble?

Doing The Horizontal Wager Mambo

2011-06-29T06:01:00.000-07:00

I had a pretty frustrating run with horse betting recently. I had dabbled in exotic wagers with superfectas. I started out hot, but followed it up with a cooler.

Obviously, I was looking at a high variance scenario. It's almost an intuitive reflex for me to dial back my play when I'm running uber bad.

After running my head into a brick wall for most of the month, I decided to switch from vertical to horizontal wagers. Horizontal wagers are multi race picks, such as the daily double, pick 3, pick 6, etc.

I've been tinkering with the pick 3 because you can build a deep ticket for a small price. If your favorites come in you can still turn a small profit, but if one of your long shots win, you are looking at a very good payday.

It's been a short, but super hot run for me on pick 3's, cashing 5 of 6 tries over the last few days. I'm realizing that these wagers may be more suited to my handicapping style, where I'm able to pinpoint the best 3-4 runners each race. I can cover these combos at a very inexpensive price.

If I can ever work my way up to the pick 6's there are lots of carryover pools resulting in big money. For now, I'm not going to mess with my success - even given the small sample size.

In other news, I've been super cold in fantasy baseball, although I haven't been playing much. I swept my fantasy NASCAR last weekend. Except for that I've only cashed a few times since the first week of June. And I'm really starting to worry that football won't start on time this year.

Choose Your Fantasy Contests Wisely

2011-06-20T08:31:00.000-07:00

One aspect of daily fantasy sports that is overlooked is the contest structure (as it relates to the player).

Some players stick to heads-up(HU), small field or large field events. Some play all three formats. However, every player needs to figure out which structures are the most profitable.

Large field events are a great place to assess your strength against the "field", since you are playing so many opponents each time out. Taking my large field results on Draftstreet this baseball season, my average entry finished in the 75th percentile (or the top 25% of scores).

Consistently finishing in the top 25% sounds great, doesn't it? It's not. Simply put, only the top 10% of scores get paid in any large field event. Although my scores beat most of the field, more often than not they didn't win any prize money.

Draftstreet also offers small field contests. The three and six player pay 33% of the field, while the 10 player pays 30% of contestants.

If I had spent more entries on the small contests instead of the large field, I'd certainly have more coin in my pocket right now. All of those top 25% scores would have cashed.

(For comparison purposes, Fan Duel offers 5 and 10 player contests, winner take all.)

Playing HU contests can be profitable if you have some "game selection" available to you. This means you have some say over which opponents you play. Playing too many contests against just one opponent (or one TEAM) is extremely high variance. It can bust your bankroll quickly.

Remember that you must win close to 60% of your HU contests just to be profitable. This is why it's so important to vary your opponents - it gives you a chance to cash if you score poorly.

Playing some mixture of all three formats is probably the best medicine for a fantasy player's psyche. You won't freak out over the cold streaks or bad beats. It will give you enough cashes to keep a positive mindset.

Semi-OT: The Life Decision Questionnaire

2011-06-14T15:20:00.000-07:00

I'm imparting on a short trip to visit some family and take care of personal matters.

The last two years have pretty much been a whirlwind of seriousness. I've tried to deflect a bunch of that with friends, drink or two-wheeled transportation. (Never combining the last two, obv.) Sometimes it works, sometimes not so much.

I read somewhere recently that most people reach their peak pessimism at mid 40's. So I wonder if the funk in my life is part of the growth curve - as opposed to the actual circumstances I'm facing.

Anyway, I would really like feedback on the following questions I often find myself pondering. Some unique perspective from my internet friends might help me figure out some things.

Consider the following parameters:

-You are single, with no spouse or significant other.
-You have no children, no dependents and no pets.
-You have no debts.
-You have no illiquid assets other than your personal belongings.
-You have enough savings on hand to maintain your current lifestyle for 4-5 years.
-You have three diseases which are all potentially fatal. One has a 90% mortality rate. Another has a 33% survival rate. The third is manageable but still kills many people.
-Given the most optimistic projection, you have 10 years to live.

Based on that information, answer the following questions:

1) How long would you continue your job or career? Do you love your job so much you would continue as long as possible?

2) How hard would you pursue a relationship? How important is it for you to NOT die alone?

3) Would you ever consider elective surgery (such as a cosmetic procedure) even though it's likely you will die just a few years later.

4) On the other hand, would you spend a significant chunk of your net worth on medical care just to extend your life a year or two?

5) Would you travel more or less? Would you develop a specific "bucket list" for your remaining years?

6) Would you be more likely to use illegal substances or engage in illegal activities, knowing your potential punishment is diminished by your life expectancy?*

7) What is the ONE most important thing to accomplish in your remaining years?

(*Consider yourself qualified for medical marijuana, all you can consume.)

Now I want to emphasize specifically this is not my exact personal situation. It is a combination of my circumstances combined with two others I know.

I'm in the process of writing two wills, including my own. Making end of life decisions really makes you think about some heavy stuff.

Anyway, if you respond to any of the questions please frame them in the parameters stated above.

Thanks for reading this.

Is Proline The Answer To Sports Betting?

2011-06-09T16:00:00.000-07:00

The warm weather has finally hit Buffalo and I've been out scooting every nice day recently. I've also acquired some serious allergy issues, including a running stuffy nose with sneezing and watery eyes. I've been taking medication that treats the symptoms, but it makes me feel a little zoned out.

I have been playing daily fantasy baseball regularly, sticking mostly to Draftstreet and Fan Duel. I generally fare better at Draftstreet with their deeper rosters and scoring tables.

I'll keep plugging away hoping for a big score at some point.

So when I'm not busy being a broken down old man, or busy cooking out with friends, I've been researching sport betting options. I even considered trekking out to Vegas again, presuming I could gather enough action to make it worthwhile.

Most recently, Proline has piqued my interest. It is a parlay game run by the Ontario lottery. You must parlay 3-6 events and you can wager $2-$100 per ticket. Payouts are based on the odds listed per event.

Thanks to a couple of great resources, I was able to put Proline in perspective with other sports betting products. Surprisingly, Proline is a much better value than the only area sportsbook (Casino Niagara).

However, when comparing Proline odds to Pinnacle Sports, the offerings don't look very attractive. Pinny is the sharpest online book, offering lower juice than Vegas. Since all online books are not an option for me, I'm back to comparing Vegas with Proline.

There are two beautiful aspects to Proline that cannot be discounted:

1) It is completely legal to play/purchase Proline whenever I'm in Ontario.
2) If I pull a winner I know I will get paid, no questions asked.

Although I'm not a fan of parlays in general, my methodology on totals seemed to produce results. I'd like to give it another shot.

While a flight to Vegas would cost me at least $300, I can take a bus round trip to Fort Erie for $3.50. (Yes, tree fiddy.)

So while Vegas odds are probably the best available to me, Proline odds are worth taking a small shot, given my proximity to Canada.

The Stacked Team Experiment

2011-06-02T09:20:00.000-07:00

Everyone in daily fantasy baseball is smitten with the concept of the "stacked" roster. You load up with hitters all from one team, with the hope that they post a huge score that day. This methodology seems to have won a few tournaments lately.

So what if you could cover all of the outcomes? Taking an example from roulette, which has three possible color outcomes (red, black and green), what if you could bet all the outcomes and still make a profit?

Last night was the ideal scenario to try this in daily fantasy baseball.

There were only 7 games on the schedule last evening. There was also a very strong top projected pitcher (Tommy Hanson).

So in a $5 tournament I decided to stack all 14 rosters playing that evening. I entered 14 times for a total of $70.

Now there were some circumstances where I couldn't use ALL hitters from a team. I filled in those spots with quality players from other teams. Also, if I had substantial money left over, I upgraded the bottom feeders with better players from another squad.

So every team was covered, I just had to sit back and collect my cash, right? here are the results:

Minnesota + Hanson 32.75 (176th place)
Detroit + Hanson 35 (153rd)
Cleveland + Hanson 57.5 (7th) $30
Toronto + Hanson 38.25 (113th)
San Diego + Marcum* 39 (103rd)
Atlanta + Hanson 36.50 (131st)
Pittsburgh + Hanson 34.25 (160th)
NY Mets + Hanson 46 (38th)
Milwaukee + Hanson 39.25 (99th)
Cincinnati + Hanson 33.5 (166th)
San Francisco + Hanson 42.25 (69th)
St. Louis + Hanson 38 (116th)
Colorado + Hanson 30 (217th)
Los Angeles + Hanson 20.75 (259th)

(*Since the Padres were facing Hanson, taking Hanson on this roster would have negative expectation. If SD hits a ton, Hanson likely gets shelled. If Hanson throws a shutout, the Padres likely put up squadoosh.)

So as you can see, stacking every team gave me only one cash with a net loss of $40.

Now, before you can utter the words "sample size", let me say a few things. Stacking every team does give you the possibility of a positive outcome, but only if you catch lightning in a bottle.

And that is my point - stacking rosters is a high risk, high reward strategy. however, it is not the highest EV strategy to winning a large field event. You need the best pitching & hitting combinations to get closest to an optimal score. In order to do that, diverse rosters are better on most nights.

Disagree? Tell me why in the comments.

Experts, Legends And Profitablility

2011-05-30T10:13:00.000-07:00

I'm going to bounce around a little today as I've had a few things on my mind.

One of the most grating issues to me is the notion of a daily fantasy "expert". There is no criteria or certification of any kind to assign expert status to anyone. Two of the long time players, Tippy and Zoobird, have been designated experts in a previous article. Yet when you search their contest history, they play rarely (if at all) for large periods of time.

I will admit when they do play, they seem to put up good results.

Another user, Mitchdog, is a self-proclaimed "legend" via the Fan Duel chat box. He was previously selling "packages" of lineups for Fan Duel users. I don't begrudge him for that - as I have sold subscriptions to Daily Fantasy Projections.

What irks me is that Mitchdog doesn't play contests much at all, and when he does, they are very small buy-ins.

Whomever the experts really are, they should be crushing due to the highest level of daily fantasy traffic we've had in its short history.

Another item that strikes me odd is the continued re-hashing of the same topics over and over again on the forums.

-How much do you research before a contest?
-Is a diverse or lopsided lineup best for baseball contests?
-Is daily fantasy sports profitable long term?

One explanation for the redundancy is that some forums offer nominal cash prizes for quality strategy posts. Is it worth my time to make my opponents better for $25-$50 bucks?

Nope.

On to the profitability issue. Just like poker, DFS has variance. But most of the players have blinders on, they only usually see the short term results. Also, many players are not multi-sport skilled, they can rake at one sport and just dabble in others.

This is like a NLHE poker player that is lost at an 8-game table.

My point is you need YEARS of results to determine profitability. If you play all sports, that will help fight some variance but you will still experience some long losing streaks. I have, I readily admit that. However, I have maintained profitability for four straight years.

Because of that, I do think it is beatable long-term. (Tippy doesn't think the rake can be beat, so perhaps that's why he doesn't play much anymore.)

I do know what it takes to be profitable. So someone tell me, what does it takes to be an expert?

(IMO, legends are associated with mythology. Who wants to be a myth?)

Failure To Launch (On Many Levels)

2011-05-25T06:51:00.000-07:00

My internet service has been intermittent at best during the past week. It's been difficult to do anything online for a few days.

I want to give a shout out to Dr. Pauly for sending me a bunch of traffic this week. Check out all of his great blogging, plus his new book "Jack Tripper Stole My Dog" is coming out any day now.

It just seems like this year has been a bunch of hiccups for me. Poker was shut down, sports betting was effectively shut down, fantasy sports has been hit or miss all year. Horse racing had a few shining moments followed by some cold streaks.

In other words, nothing has been easy... Not that it should be, right?

I need to rededicate my focus on the opportunities that are still available to me. There are more large field fantasy contests then ever. I should be taking advantage of the dead money wallowing in these every day.

I feel ready to break out this next month if I can just shake off the rust and put in the time.

The Superfecta Monologues

2011-05-16T13:02:00.000-07:00

I've been re-focused on horse racing since my sports betting options became limited.

My previous horse betting endeavors have been very focused on the market. By searching for value bets, I would receive excellent payouts for my winners.

One drawback to this approach is its time consuming nature. Playing a pari-mutuel betting pool requires making your wagers at just the right moment, usually right at post time.

In other words, waiting around for 25 minutes between each race. Sometimes waiting just to end up not betting anything.

I decided to go in a different direction this week and play some exotic wagers. Now the exotics have a steeper takeout (25%), but offer some big payouts, as well as bigger rebates.

I started playing superfectas this weekend and I think I'm in love with this wager. (OK, maybe not "in love", but we may be going steady for awhile.)

First off, you can play a superfecta for as little as $.10. So you can box 4 selections for a whopping $2.40. Assuming a 10 race schedule, you could play the entire race card for only $24. Pretty much any punter can afford that.

Even for that small amount you can walk away with a very hefty payday.

Second, playing supers is all about handicapping, not markets (pools). It's impossible to predict payouts on 4 leg exotic bets. You're just shooting for winners.

Therefore, you can go ahead and place your wagers early in the day. This frees up all of that time I used to watch the pools build up before post time.

Now, playing supers is a high variance affair. You could easily go 100 wagers without hitting any winners. It reminds me of tournament poker - you might not cash for a long time, but it only takes one big winner to fund you for a long time.

Add in the rebate around 9% and it becomes a very attractive strategy. (For you math geeks, getting a 9% rebate on a 25% takeout would be the equivalent of 36% rakeback.)

So if I'm any good at handicapping, I might be blogging about horses more often.

100,000 Entries To Grace Land

2011-05-13T12:34:00.000-07:00

So tonight starts the Fan Duel Baseball Championship. 17 weeks of qualifying events, each with unlimited entries.

The 20 finalists will have a shot at the $25,000 top prize. Bottom line - you'll need 2 PERFECT nights to even sniff any decent money. This contest was structured to remove as much skill as possible.

It's (uber)frustrating to me that the site with the weakest game & price structure gets so much play. Fan Duel runs great promotions, but if they ignore the customer service side of the business, they'll fall by the way side, just like Snapdraft.

Could This Be An Exotic Weekend?

2011-05-05T08:34:00.000-07:00

As we've reached the first full weekend in May, it's time to talk a little horse racing. Derby day is upon us.

Since the poker shutdown pretty much killed my sports betting options, I've been concentrating on legal horse wagering. The weather has improved and more race cards are now available, which means more value betting for me.

I found a stellar rebate program (aka rakeback), which encourages me to make more exotic wagers. When a race comes along with multiple value horses, I pound it with various exacta, trifecta and/or superfecta combinations. These are the races that really make my ROI sparkle. Usually when I hit one of these, it's time to call it a day.

The Kentucky Derby is always a classic value race. The favorite has won only a few times in the last 30+ years. With 20 horses running (and no field betting options), it's almost certain to have a monster exotic payoff.

So sit back and enjoy the warmer weather. Pick your top 4 horses, and don't be afraid to box or wheel them as needed.

Dude, Identical Rosters Are Costing You Money!

2011-04-29T08:14:00.000-07:00

There's a trend in large field daily fantasy contests of using IDENTICAL rosters. What this means is that a user will drop 2 or 3 entries using the exact same roster.

The rationale behind this strategy is that a winning (cashing) roster will produce multiple cashes. However, the flaw in this methodology is diminishing returns. The identical rosters will only chop prizes at (or below) the score achieved.

In other words, a 3x multiple entry finishing 10th would chop 10th, 11th & 12th place prizes.

In fact, the ONLY time multiple entries works out beneficially is when your identical entries take 1st place (along with the corresponding follow up prizes).

It would seem to me the players using this strategy are more confident in their ability to cash in a large field event, rather than actually win the event.

Here is how I view large field strategy (and why you shouldn't use identical entries):

-You should always enter large field events with the intention of winning them. If you drop 18 entries on an event, that should be 18 different shots at the 1st place prize. Using duplicate entries (2x each roster), you are only taking 9 shots at 1st place. While you might score a double cash sometimes, you are just padding the prize pool for the rest of us. Thank you.

-Even changing ONE player on your roster is much better than identical entries. It's most likely that changing that one player will still produce similar results as a duplicate entry. However, that one player may score enough to earn you a BETTER finish than the duplicate entry. It's much nicer to finish 9th & 7th (instead of 9th & 10th.)

The beauty of large field events is the large payoff for a small entry fee. If you are not shooting for the largest payoff with your entries, you're just donating with the duplicate entries. Think about it.

Online Poker & Sports Betting: Move Or Be Moved

2011-04-26T07:04:00.000-07:00

There have been hundreds of blog posts about the recent changes in online poker. Most are like this: ZOMG... BLACK FRIDAY!

This isn't one of those posts.

In fact, recent online poker changes were like earning a boy scout badge. I was prepared. I had ZERO online when the site seizures occurred. (It didn't hurt that the sites had made it very difficult to deposit in 2011.)

I was planning on playing stud satellites for the WSOP. And I only planned on depositing enough to cover the entry fees (as needed.) But that plan has gone kablooey.

The blow back of the DOJ actions actually affected me most in the sports betting arena. Most of the offshore betting operators have now scaled back their deposit options. Some of the prominent operators were having their cash out checks bounce. I've read some bettors had their deposits via courier held up in customs.

Without a safe deposit mechanism, online sports betting is not a viable option for me anymore. While I still have a fairly small bankroll online, it can be used for other pursuits.

I can only see the following options for my wagering future:

-Move to (or near) Nevada. Nevada allows legal sports betting and hosts the biggest poker events in the USA. I could afford to make this move, but it would involve leaving a lot of physical & emotional baggage behind.

-Move to another country. Not likely to happen unless violent unrest begins to unfold in the USA.

-Since I'm unlikely to move myself immediately, I'm moving my activities to fantasy sports & horse betting. Both activities are explicitly legal in NY (and most of the USA). Both activities have proven profitable for me over a multi-year sample.

While I'm not sure what the best long term option is right now, I'm not going to uproot my entire life just to bet on an over/under.

Why Head To Head Is Dead

2011-04-19T10:50:00.000-07:00

In the past, the only way to get significant action in fantasy sports was to play heads-up against a (usually) very good opponent.

Many fantasy "experts" (I use that term VERY loosely) argued that without available game selection - meaning playing only weaker opponents - that it was IMPOSSIBLE to make a profit playing daily fantasy games.

Well, throw that whole argument out the window. It's now a moot point.

With the proliferation of large field contests on the majority of daily fantasy sites, game selection is no longer an issue. The fantasy sports "donkament" has arrived in full force. Pretty much every day of the week you can play a large field event for a relatively small buy-in (with a promise of a decent pay day.)

Besides the attractive prize pools, there are other reasons to play large fields and not heads-up:

-No scouting of your opposition is needed. You are playing the field.

-No more worrying about your results being scraped by the douche bags that are compiling databases on all of the daily fantasy players. Yes, these players are profiling you. They are recording the players you are most likely to pick, which positions you spend the most on, etc.

Their work is worthless in the large field contests because they have to beat all of the players, not just you.

-No more worrying about sniping in the lobby for heads-up matches. I have material proof that some players are using scripts to get matchups on some fantasy contest sites.

Not much different than sniping for ebay auctions. It essentially puts these players in the lobby 24/7 to get action. The sites need to rectify this at some point.

-Although much higher variance, large field play requires a much smaller bankroll than heads-up play. Very few sites are offering large buy-in events (over $100).

If I were just starting out in the daily fantasy game, I would stick to solely the large field events for my real money play.

To The Victor Goes The Spoils

2011-04-14T09:05:00.001-07:00

(Sorry, this post is not about my awesome brother-in-law Victor.)

Every once in awhile you get to celebrate when your hard work has paid off. After having a fairly good start to 2011, I decided to add to my fleet of goofy looking scooters and/or motorcycles.

I found a month old craigslist ad and inquired if the vehicle was still for sale. It was, and I decided to buy it. Here it is, a 2010 SYM Symba in powder blue:

This bike has ONE mile on the odometer. It needs a wash and some fresh gas, but it starts right up and should be on the road soon.

I seriously considered padding my online bankrolls some more, but until I'm more certain of sending my funds overseas, I'd rather keep those funds in my driveway.

Sizing Matters? You Bet!

2011-04-11T11:16:00.000-07:00

In my previous post, I discussed some sports betting strategies. The final strategy - bet sizing - deserves its own post, because it's so important to overall profitability.

I want to share my experience with three different styles of bet sizing: Flat betting, Kelly betting and bet scaling.

Flat betting is betting a static amount every wager during a session. There is a lot of betting literature out there suggesting that sports bettors play 2% of their bankroll during a given session. So if my bankroll is $1000, I would wager $20 each on today's bets.

I find flat betting works only under the following circumstances:

1) You are a recreational bettor and profit means nothing to you.
2) Your bankroll is so big that the max bet is 2% or less of your roll.

Each sports bet you make has a different value attached to it. This is why your bet amount SHOULD be varied. By how much is really up to you.

Kelly criterion betting is probably the most popular bet sizing practiced by sharp bettors. If you can determine both the probability and the payoff odds of a given event, you can use a simple calculator to determine your bet size. (The result is expressed in percentage, where 8.25% = betting 8.25% of your bankroll.)

Now betting the full Kelly amount is the most aggressive way to build a bankroll, but it also offers the highest risk of ruin (aka busto). Many punters use a fractional Kelly method: Half Kelly, 1/4 Kelly or even 10% Kelly for the bankroll nits.

Whatever version of the Kelly method you employ, it will give you the varied bet size necessary to extract value from your wagers.

The third bet sizing method (which I currently use) is bet scaling. Scaling inolves using different bet sizes based on user generated criteria. (I guess you could argue Kelly betting is in fact bet scaling, but for this discussion they'll be separate.)

The most common form of bet scaling mentioned online is the "star play" system. Players bet 1-5 "units" on their wager, based upon some strength of the bet winning.

My method of bet scaling is completely different, although rather simplistic.

I wager a fixed percentage of my available bankroll on each wager. I know this sounds like flat betting, but it's not. An example:

I start with a $1000 bankroll and my scaling size is 10%.

My first wager is for $100, leaving me with $900 available. The second wager is for $90, leaving me with $810.

Let's say my 1st bet cashes at +120 odds (a $220 payout). Now my available bankroll is $1030. My 3rd bet is now placed, and the amount of the wager would be $103, leaving $927 available. And so on and so on...

This method of bet scaling has a few advantages IMO:

-If you're placing multiple bets at once you can consider which sizes/payoffs match which wagers. It forces you to think about the bets a bit more.

-This method prevents you from becoming "bet happy" and placing too many wagers at once, because the bet sizing gets much smaller if you do that.

-This method is very far removed from risk of ruin... as long as you stick to it!

Whatever method of bet sizing you use, remember that profitability from sports betting is derived from all facets: Shopping for good odds, at least a dash or two of good handicapping and money/bet management. Good luck!

Climbing The Sports Betting Learning Curve

2011-04-07T08:43:00.000-07:00

While I have dabbled in betting for several years, I only took up the pursuit seriously last December during my first trip to Vegas.

After getting back from my trip, I decided to take on the sports books, especially since there is legal wagering In Niagara Falls.

I have to admit I started out quite poorly, putting together losing months in January & February.

However, as I studied both the betting market & new strategies, I began to show some promise. March was a decent profit, given the circumstances.

I could spend all afternoon writing about this, but here are some quick points that have helped me turn a profit with sports betting:

1) Go with what you know. This may seem obvious, but you'll make the best betting decisions when you have the most information available. I follow baseball, hockey, college sports and auto racing religiously. It's no coincidence I have the most winners in those sports. I pretty much suck at NFL and NBA. (Although I'm a great fantasy football playa!)

2) Your profits will be severly limited unless you can shop lines. If you have access to only one book, you're stuck with whatever lines/juice they offer. There have been a lot of quality plays I wanted to make - and passed on - because I couldn't get a decent line to put money down. My top priority right now is to get more options available.

3) Totals are usually more profitable than sides. For those of you not in on the betting lingo, totals are the "over/under" bet on a game. Sides are the teams (i.e. Dallas or Washington). Totals are easier to project and it's difficult for the books to protect themselves on the totals line. Most of the full-time sharp bettors I've met play totals first, often waiting for the moment a new line comes out just to hit it for the max.

4) When playing the betting market, the name of the game is beating the closing line. If the Yankees close at -200, you want to get your bet on them at something better, like -190. If the point spread on the Suns is +3, you want to get your bet in at +5 or +6. Using the market moves (aka steam) to get better lines is a habit you will pick up over time.

5) If the line moves in your favor, double down. If you were confident enough to place that bet once, why not place it again at better odds? It's just like buying shares of AAPL at $250, then finding out they're available at $200 later in the day. Go get some more.

6) Bet sizing matters. I'm going to write another post just on bet sizing, but you do not want to bet equal units on every wager. Kelly criterion wagering is popular with a lot of bettors, although I do not exactly follow that method anymore.

When deciding on how much to bet, consider this: Once you place a wager, that money is no longer part of your bankroll. So ignore outstanding bets when you consider placing new wagers.

While none of this is earth shattering news, learning to take all of these considerations into your betting process will increase both confidence and winnings.

A Working Vacation?

2011-04-05T13:07:00.000-07:00

I think I need another vacation. I'm actually in a pretty rough emotional state. I wonder if it might be male menopause.

I don't really understand what's going on with my body these days, but I've been an emo bitch lately. This needs to stop.

I've been thinking about taking some of the bankroll from my recent big scores and travel to Niagara Falls (Ontario) for a week of live sports betting at the casino.

The change of scenery might do me some good.

Then again, I could take that travel money and pad my online betting bankroll. The convenience of betting from home is great too.

Any suggestions? What would you do?

The April Curse Is Over

2011-04-02T13:41:00.000-07:00

Four years. Horrible losing streaks every April since 2007. Sometimes the swings get bad enough to make me want to quit fantasy sports.

That all changed yesterday.

Wanting to help my focus, I decided to offers stakes to daily fantasy players. This allows me to concentrate on one site/sport at a time.

The very first horse I got going this year was my friend Brian. He was recently laid off from his job here in Buffalo.

So I gave him a little primer on how daily fantasy works and also shared my daily fantasy projections.

Off he went to Fan Duel on his first day.

I almost forgot... his username? thruthewickets.

So my first horse (on his 1st day of play) cashed for $8100 on 10 entries in the grand slam. 1st, 2nd, 12th & 13th. Yeah, it was a good day. Some thoughts:

-It was a combination of good karma & serendipity for this to even happen. I wasn't playing this tourney, no matter what.

-It was nice to see some of the top grinders drop a bunch of entries and whiff. Haters gonna hate. (It goes both ways, I guess).

-Once again, it shows that my projection model works. If I can take a newbie with a couple hours of training & some data and get those results - it speaks for itself.

Also, if anybody thinks they are worthy of being staked for daily fantasy, I'm always open to developing new relationships. If you've got grind on the mind, let me know.

It's about time I put a crew together to take on the other teams.

The Best Place To Play Daily Fantasy Baseball

2011-03-30T12:32:00.000-07:00

It's a favorite time of year for baseball nerds everywhere.

MLB starts up tomorrow and so does daily fantasy baseball.

If you want the best site to play your fantasy contests, visit Draftstreet now.

I have tried all of the daily sites worth playing and Draftstreet is currently the best. Why?

-14 man rosters for baseball, the deepest around. Deeper rosters = more skill, less luck.

-Your choice of daily or weekly contests.

-Your choice of salary cap or snake draft contests.

-Your choice of points or roto scoring.

-Multiple guaranteed prize pool contests each week.

-"Street Creds" rewards program. Turn your free points into entry fees! No one else offers this!

Use Draftstreet bonus code BUFFALO to get a 30% bonus on your first deposit!

If you want to play me in fantasy baseball this season, Draftstreet is where we can throw down.

Let's Talk Player Pricing... AGAIN.

2011-03-27T12:16:00.000-07:00

As daily fantasy sports grows and new players migrate to the contest sites, a lot of discussions happen over and over again.

I read this post of a new player's take on the industry. His point #1 about player pricing is a view shared by many players including Kaiseroll13 and Zoobird.

It tilts me to no end. I vehemently disagree. Efficient player pricing is SO important to keeping skill in salary cap games.

Every site uses a different method to price their players. They use a formula based upon player performance, popularity or both.

Also, the sites use different frequency to update their pricing. This ranges from daily updates to every 10 days or even once a season updates (LOL Snapdraft.)

The theory presented to me repeatedly is this: If players were priced perfectly & efficiently, then every team would have identical EV regardless of the players chosen, thus taking all of the skill out of the game. Every contest would become a coin flip at best, thus impossible to beat the rake.

Nice theory, but wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. WRONG.

First of all, no site has the ability to price their players to perfection. Not even Draftstreet or Draft Zone, which update every day with large price swings.

Secondly, not one contest site prices their players based upon TODAY'S expectation of performance. Everyone is priced on PAST performance or popularity, whether it's over this season, last season or recent trends.

What this means is that there is no way to remove skill from a tight, efficient salary cap. You still need to know the best matchups for tonight and pay for those players out of your cap space.

Changing the pricing often is also good for the skill element. It rewards the players who follow the pricing market regularly. Infrequent pricing changes or prices that move too slowly (I'm looking at you, Fan Duel) make the bargains way too obvious. That removes skill from the contest, IMO.

I have said all of this many times before and have been subsequently ridiculed for it by the other players. Whatever. Somebody convince me otherwise and I will give you mad props.

Seeking Positive Vibes

2011-03-25T09:15:00.000-07:00

With this recent blast of winter, I've been struggling to keep a positive tact on things.

I've had a lousy two weeks fantasy wise, mostly losing since I took 1st & 2nd in a Draftstreet GPP on the 10th. That night pretty much saved my profitability for March.

What has me worried is that April has been my worst fantasy month every year since 2007. I had considered just taking it off, but I'm going to give it a go again. I'll probably just concentrate on Draftstreet baseball as my only active sport.

The "Beat Buffalo66" promo is almost over and I have to tip my hat to the regulars who did very well against me. The level of competition is much better in recent years. Combine that with my recent struggles and you have a lot of bonuses paid out.

I knew the promo was going to cost me some money, but I gave it a try to help boost the hockey traffic at FSL. It's a shame that they can't offer some bigger field contests over there.

I did manage to make a profit betting sports this month. After a losing Jan.-Feb. I managed to hit 63% of my picks so far in March. Although I was a painful 0-2 last night, I hope to come back a bit more by the end of the month.

I'm still shopping for a viable reduced juice book. My options are very limited at the moment.

I haven't been betting horses at all recently. It was the one activity that was crowded out of my schedule. There are a lot of big races coming up, maybe I will dedicate some days after the NCAA basketball is over.

I'm also waiting for the WSOP satellites to start. I want to play stud events only, so I'm hoping the big sites will offer 7CS satellites for these events.

It just seems like life is saying, "Hurry up and wait" for something good to happen. Then again, I've handled a steady diet of disappointment pretty well, IMO.

OT: Pleasant Diversions

2011-03-19T09:02:00.000-07:00

This is always one of my favorite weekends of the year.

It's the peak of March madness with NCAA and NIT basketball in full swing. Lots of fun wagering goes on for nearly two straight weeks. I have been hitting 67% of my wagers in March.

It's also (post) St. Patrick's day. While I am a proud Irish man, I'm also a proud Buffalonian. The Buffalo St. Patrick's parade is the closest thing we have to a true Mardi Gras in the Nickel City. Always a fun time on Sunday especially with the parade ending in my neighborhood.

Combine this with a break in the winter weather and my first scooter ride of the season and you have a great recipe for fun.

Definitely feeling good right now. Hoping this feeling lasts through the spring.

NFO = No more Fanduel for Ohmsy?

2011-03-16T10:47:00.000-07:00

In the latest drama bomb, fantasy player Ohmsy was temporarily suspended on Fan Duel for exploiting a software glitch that allowed him to access private contests.

Several months ago, he was caught multi-accounting as well, playing on "friends" accounts: bill_brasky, gatorfan89, etc. This is a direct violation of the Fan Duel TOS.

(Ohmsy, I know you think you didn't break the TOS b/c you say you didn't create those accounts. Yet still playing on them violates the TOS.)

The reason I bring up the multi-accounting is two fold:

1) It shows that this guy is pretty much a cheating bastard, willing to bend or break whatever rules exist to gain any advantage.

2) This whole problem is actually Fan Duel's fault. It's ALL on them for failing to ban this cheater the first time around.

FD better think long and hard on how to improve both security and the user experience. I refuse to put any money on their site until they show a serious effort in this regard.

Just A Thought On The 70 Mile $1mm Prop Bet

2011-03-14T08:08:00.000-07:00

This has been sitting in the back of my mind for awhile.

For those of you not familiar with this bet, some friends made a wager that one person could/couldn't run 70 miles in 24 hours.

You can read the whole story (written by one of the participants) here and here.

After reading the story (and the entire 2+2 thread about it) I'm struck over one aspect: There appears to be no photographic or video evidence of the events. None before, during or after.

In our world of ubiquitous cell phones, no one snapped a photo?

If I was in on this bet either way, I would have videotaped the whole thing. For a cool million, I would review the tape to make sure no cheating occurred.

If I were the parents of Ashman, I would have videotaped the whole thing for legal reasons in case any injuries occurred.

I'm not saying he didn't run the 70 miles. It's certainly within the physical limits of a human to do it.

I'm just saying that without ANY evidence other than heresay, color me skeptical.

PS - Happy Steak & BJ Day!

Where Is The Focus?

2011-03-10T05:52:00.000-08:00

I feel like I'm second guessing myself.

I've been involved in several activities this year, but nothing has been an overwhelming success.

Besides playing ponies & fantasy sports, I've worked on developing some business projects (both on and offline.)

This year seems to be about non-happenings. I was recently offered an equity share in a daily fantasy contest site. I didn't feel it was a good fit for me - I'm not sure we shared the same long term goals.

Last year seemed to be about diversification. I was playing all of the fantasy sports, mixed games at poker, Daily Fantasy Projections and running a food service operation. I'm actually amazed I had enough energy for all of that, because I sure don't seem to these days. (Perhaps the rough winter beat me down a bit.)

Now I feel like that same diversification may be holding me back. When I was in Vegas, sports betting was a mutually exclusive activity. I wasn't doing anything else that day. Same goes for horse betting. The results were pretty good, maybe it's a concentration issue.

So I wonder if multi-sports fantasy play is good or bad for me. Should I concentrate on one sport or one site? Bankroll is not really a factor here.

What if I concentrated solely on horse racing? Should I drop all fantasy play to give me a bigger racing schedule?

Assuming there are 7CS satellites for the WSOP stud events, I'd like to take a shot or two this year. I know there are bigger donkeys than me out there pushing chips.

My number crunching tells me the rewards schedule on both horse betting and fantasy play are about equal. Coincidentally, my best profits for the year are equally split between the horses and my play on Draftstreet.

Which direction do I turn? I just need to find my focus and make things happen.

Daily Fantasy Blogging For Money = Censorship

2011-03-07T11:22:00.000-08:00

I see our friends over at Rotogrinders have launched blogs for their members. And if you blog enough, they will put money in your Draftstreet account.

I do find it amusing that so many members blog about Fan Duel to get money on Draftstreet.

It also makes little sense to me that RG wanted me to provide free strategy content for them, yet they pay members for user generated content which has almost no value.

Which is why I was struck by a recent blog entry by bobbyrogers46 titled, "The selling of fantasy advice and information". Finally, here's a meaty topic - One I'm interested in of course, having run Daily Fantasy Projections. The blog post inspired multiple comments, including discussion of multi-accounting, collusion and team play.

Surely this post would rise to the top of favorite blogs! Wrong. It was quickly removed. (Here is the link to the post: http://rotogrinders.com/fantasyblogs/The_Selling_of_Fantasy_Advice_and_Information-7077 ) Heaven forbid that new potential signups would find out high dollar angleshooting occurs daily at all the major sites.

It's a shame that the true small time grinders who actively discuss these topics - to try and improve their chances - get shut down if it gets the wrong message out.

It's also important to note that the highest ranked grinders (Kaiseroll13, GeneralV, Rudzia555, Primetime420) almost NEVER contribute to the site. Do you think they would want any of their secrets to get out?

(UPDATE: RG claims to have tech issues, causing blog posts to disappear. We shall see if this post returns. I will say that I've seen user content removed in the past, so my opinion of censorship over there still exists.)

More Fan Duel Ignorance (Now With Baseball)

2011-03-02T12:30:00.000-08:00

Fan Duel announced their new "2011 season large field baseball pants party" (or whatever it's called).

Don't forget to check the rules, especially the scoring:

Hitters: 1B = 1pt, 2B = 2pts, 3B = 3pts, HR = 4pts, RBI = 1pt, R = 1pt, BB = 1pt, SB = 2pts, Out = -.25pt

Not only did they remove hitter strikeouts (-1 last year), which helped even out the value of power hitters to contact hitters...

But now SACRIFICES are worth -.25 instead of zero. When your hitter clocks a sac fly, he will earn .75 instead of 1 point. (1 for RBI -.25 for the out.)

FWIW, the pitching scoring remains unchanged. WHIP still means nothing in this game format.

Don't be fooled by the lure of big prizes into playing a game with a lousy scoring system. There might be a juicy overlay, but it will take a lot to bring me back to that site.

Sports Betting Conundrums

2011-02-27T07:06:00.000-08:00

February has not been a kind month. I've pretty much been assaulted on all fronts.

Fantasy sports has me winning at one site and losing at another. Horse betting has also been less successful, mostly break even after a solid January.

My sports betting has been horrid for all of 2011. After winning only 50% of my wagers in January, I've fallen off to below 48% for this month. That's not a winning rate by any standards.

Now, my sample size is small enough that I could probably dismiss it as variance, but things are more complex than just running bad.

I could try the infamous "get even" bet, but I am took much of a bankroll nit to get unstuck in one try. I would rather be in the red than busto.

I figured maybe I'd better try to get the best lines for my wagers, to help minimize the losses. In other words, find the least amount of juice for the wagers I want to make.

But being in the good old USA leaves me with the following problems:

Conundrum #1: Getting funds onto the books with the least juice is a GIANT p.i.t.a. There is no way I'm scanning all of my personal info to some unknown entity in another country. And wiring cash to some person in a far away country isn't happening either.

The only betting exchange I can access might have liquidity or cashout issues. Even though it takes about 28 days to deposit by e-check, this site has great lines for all events. However, many punters complain about liquidity for some events and the site's relationship with a slow paying book probably scares off some action.

This leaves me stuck with paying steep juice for wagering, which makes me consider dropping sports betting altogether.

Conundrum #2: I really enjoy sports betting. The whole process of combing the markets for good plays is fun.

While it's the most enjoyable of my three main activities, it's also the least profitable (so far) and the most difficult to pursue as a US resident.

In other words, move to Vegas (not happening) or do something else.

With March madness starting next week, I'll likely drop some more wagers and see how things shake out. But without decent lines to work with, I'll probably concentrate on fantasy baseball and the spring horse racing schedule.

Why Penalty Minutes Matter In Fantasy Hockey

2011-02-21T10:37:00.000-08:00

Another rotogrinders thread that tilts me. This could become a regular feature on my blog.

Ohmsy started this thread complaining that penalty minutes (or PIMs) should not be counted as positive points. Please let me tell you why PIMs matter and why they should be counted as positive points. Three reasons:

1) It gives value to defensive players, such as checking lines & stay at home defensemen. (If you don't know those terms, please send me your user ID so I can play you in fantasy hockey tonight.) There is such a thing as a good penalty. Your player gets a minor but prevented a high percentage scoring chance, that was a good play for the team.

Fighting also creates PIMs. Fights usually happen when a team is down big, the only way to retaliate is to drop the gloves. You will hear annoucers say, "He's trying to give the team some energy", or "He's making a statement." Fights also happen after a team takes a cheap shot on an opposing star. The fighters are called enforcers because they protect the scorers.

Remove the PIMs from scoring and the only players that have value are the top 6 forwards, the QB of the power play and the starting goalie.

2) PIMs add the right amount of the variance to the game. It is VERY difficult to project PIMs. You can never tell when a misconduct or a match penalty will be called. This actually helps the newbies a bit, they can donk their way to a victory occasionally with a little help from the referee.

Again, remove the PIMs and the game is all about goal scoring, nothing else.

3) PIMs are part of the history of fantasy hockey. While fantasy hockey may be new to many of you, it actually pre-dates fantasy baseball (at least in Canada). Hockey pools were in existence long before the original rotisserie baseball league was started in the early 80's.

Removing PIMs would be like removing stolen bases from fantasy baseball. It's a traditional scoring element.

Now if you hate PIMs but still want to play fantasy hockey, you should head over to Fantasy Sports Live because the scoring minimizes penalty minutes at just 1 point per PIM.

Fantasy Sports Most Hated Man's Daytona Preview

2011-02-18T09:52:00.000-08:00

Let's get one thing straight right now: I am the most hated man in daily fantasy sports.

I am NOT the the most feared man in daily fantasy as some have suggested. Being the "most feared" is almost counter intuitive; it implies you don't want to give me any action.

Anyone who has seen my recent fantasy results should be rushing to give me action.

I'm excited for the beginning of NASCAR this week. It's only a once a week event, so fantasy NASCAR is similar to football, except the season is 36 weeks long instead of 17.

Motor sports are a little under served in the daily fantasy scene, but Fantasy Sports Live has proven it's ability to roll out a fun & challenging game.

However, Daytona weekend has probably been the worst weekend for me if past results are any indication. Because the speeds are so high at this track, NASCAR uses restrictor plates. This reduces the horse power in all of the cars so they run very equally (and at safer speeds).

In other words, all of the cars run at full throttle in one big bunch, nose to tail. Almost inevitably, there is a big wreck wiping out a big chunk of the field.

To win fantasy contests this weekend, all of your drivers need to finish. Two or three of your drivers get caught up in a wreck, you might as well turn off the TV.

Look for the drivers who actually finish the race most often and you'll have a fighting chance to win.

So if you want to try out fantasy NASCAR on FSL, this weekend would be a great time.

Because it's going to be a luckfest, plain & simple.

I call it "Restrictor plate bingo."

2011: A Year Of Struggles?

2011-02-15T10:36:00.001-08:00

This year has not gone exactly as planned.

I guess the biggest surprise for me this year is the struggle with my health. I hurt my back in Vegas, had the flu for most of January and recently battled a nasty infection. (No, I was not at the Playboy Mansion.)

Something vehemently disagreed with me this weekend, forcing a painful bout of vomiting and hyper active bowels. On Sunday my domicile looked like an an exorcism had just been performed. I think I dropped about 15 pounds.

I'm feeling much better, thank you.

I guess I have to come to terms with being middle-aged. In reality, I'm lucky to be this healthy today. It's a lot easier to count your blessings than to fret over what evil scenario is coming down the pike.

In fantasy I have struggled a bit too. I have already given up the bonus cash three times in the "Beat Buffalo66" promo on FSL. This week I had two goalies give up 7 goals each in ONE night. That usually happens to me about once every two years (mostly because the goalie usually gets pulled).

Now's a great time to take me on while I'm sucking it up over there.

Over on Draftstreet things have been much better. I'm liking most of the things they do on the site, they have more hockey traffic than everyone except Fan Duel after only a few weeks online.

They have the deepest rosters, efficient pricing and a flex position to help eliminate duplicate teams.

I have been most consistent playing the ponies, although I haven't done as well as last month. This is mostly due to poor weather cancelling a large chunk of the race cards, which makes it much harder to find value opportunities to bet on.

Finally, the sports betting has been pretty lousy for all of 2011, running just a tick under 50%. I may dedicate more blog space to this later on, I have some strategies I'm trying out for March Madness.

If I can stay healthy, I'm hoping to roll out some nice surprises this year. I have a couple of great projects to develop, if I have the time and energy.

Let's Lighten Things Up A Bit

2011-02-09T07:22:00.000-08:00

I was beat down pretty good last night in fantasy hockey. It's always a magical evening when your goalie gives up seven.

Congratulations to You Better You Bet for winning the first bonus cash in the Beat Buffalo66 promo on Fantasy Sports Live. randyracer99 is also going for the bonus tonight.

I'm fighting off a respiratory infection so don't freak out if I go off the grid for a few days. I think some warmer weather would do wonders for me right now, but I'm not even up to leaving the house.

I'm really in the mood to chuckle right now. Here's one of my favorite roast clips - Gilbert Gottfried defends Joan Rivers' vagina:

(No bad language but probably NSFW)

PS - there is a longer version of this clip that also has the "cheese sandwich" joke, which is my favorite joke to tell in a bar.

Deep Thoughts: I Feel Like A Brilliant Man Who Is Incredibly Stupid

2011-02-06T13:04:00.000-08:00

Blah. Best description I can come up with right now.

I've been trying to write this post for a few days. With a slew of snow storms hammering the northeast, depression is running high amongst the locals. I think everyone has a bout of seasonal affective disorder (or SAD for short) once a year.

The lack of sunshine and cold temps really seemed to hit me hard lately. I work from home so I can take comfort in my man cave, but you can't stay in the bio-dome forever.

However, it's not hard to overcome the winter blues by themselves. When you pile them on your other issues, then you have a nice, tall shit sandwich.

I'm not going to launch into a "woe is me" tirade, because I have a life many people would trade for in a heartbeat. For a single guy in Buffalo I'm living pretty high on the hog. I'm fortunate that I don't fall prey to needing all of the toys (or bling) to make my existence "significant".

In fact one of the few things I'm proud of is that my recent blessings of abundance haven't changed me much at all.

What I struggle with these days is my identity. I'm not sure how much of this is self-esteem related. I think it's more about what I'm involved in or engaged with at the moment.

Let's face it - most days I goof around on the Internet. I do make specific commitments to certain activities - fantasy sports, horse betting, blogging.

So when someone new asked me Friday "What do you do?", I still don't know what to say.

-I'm a professional horse player?
-Fantasy sports guru/occasional swinging dick?
-None of your goddamn business?

I usually go with the standard, "I work for myself. Internet marketing. (PAUSE) And it's not porn."

I do think my social skills suck, which may actually be the self-esteem manifesting itself.

But the fact I don't have a "go to" response pretty much shows I'm not really INVESTED in anything right now. (As I said before I know peeps that would very much like that situation.)

I feel that I'm trying to protect myself for making any mistakes with my life by NOT taking any risks (financial or otherwise).

I'm a smart guy but I feel it's stupid to do nothing significant with my life.

In other words, I'm a decision nit.

"Beat Buffalo66" On Fantasy Sports Live

2011-01-31T13:35:00.000-08:00

I've agreed to be involved in a new fantasy hockey promotion on Fantasy Sports Live. It's called "Beat Buffalo66" and the rules are pretty simple:

Anyone who beats my score for 3 consecutive contests wins $20 in bonus money. That's it.

You don't even need to cash in the contests to win. Just finish ahead of me. Ties do not count.

On the rare occasions that two contests run on the same night and you play both of them, only your first entry will count for the promo.

Also, bonus money is coming directly out of my account, so winning the bonus means you're taking some money right out of my pocket.

Entry for the contest is only $6.60 and hopefully we will get enough regulars to run a 10 player version.

If you haven't yet signed up for FSL, now's a great time. Use bonus code BUFFALO for a 20% sign up bonus (up to $100 deposit). They also offer a $30 bonus on a $200 deposit.

Gambling Thoughts

2011-01-27T09:24:00.000-08:00

(Note: If you're looking for a good 10 minute read, check out Dr. Pauly's post about getting coolered and how it makes you ponder what the hell is going on inside your head.)

It's been an interesting 2011 for a punter like myself. Hot or cold, depending where you look.

I have been slaying the ponies with my value betting scheme. I've always had "good luck" with Thoroughbred racing, but now I wonder if that luck was just studying market forces and intuitively applying it to the races.

After two serious attempts at handicapping, I've finally tweaked my methods into something that should make steady income (and is completely legal in the USA).

My only bad beat with the horses is the lousy weather this month, which seems to cancel about 1/3 of the race cards every day.

Fantasy sports has been "meh" lately, after a horrible December. After my sour experience with Fan Duel, I emptied my account and moved on. I will be playing more hockey on Fantasy Sports Live and Draftstreet after the all-star break.

Sports betting has been the coldest of all since my return from Vegas. I had a horrible 2 for 10 Saturday in late December, putting me down for that month. January finds me at 26-26-1, but that makes my bankroll go down 10% because of the juice.

When it comes to betting on games, I'm different than Pauly. It's really just a mathematical exercise for me. Basically, I make my own lines. After setting my own lines, I compare them to the book. The games with the biggest discrepancy are the ones I target. I double check the teams involved to make sure nothing is disrupting their lineups or game plan - weather, suspensions, funerals, shootings, etc.

Once I make my picks/wagers, that's it. Time to move on to something else. I don't usually sweat the games unless there is little else going on.

My experience is that I've seen wins or losses come in spectacular fashion. I just don't think there's need to agonize over a wager. Once you place a wager the money is no longer yours. I view sports wagers as one of three outcomes:

1) Your pick was bad and had no chance at all of winning. This happens to everyone, even the pro bettors.

2) Your pick was solid but fell short. Your team didn't cover or lost a close one. Even though you lost money, you made the correct wager. (Hey, pocket aces don't always hold up.)

3) Your pick carries the day. You look smart. (Although sometimes your team only covered because they got lucky. Thank the appropriate gambling gods and move on.)

When I review my bets, I note the outcomes. As long as I'm not making many wagers with outcome #1... I'm good, win or lose.

Losing is still frustrating. When I lose in one area of gaming, I like to step back and concentrate on another one. It seems I have good focus in racing right now, so that is where my energy lies lately.

I enjoy dabbling in these past times, but I'm not looking for any shortcuts. Without question I'm an entrepreneur. There is inherent risk taking coursing through my veins.

Whether any of this tomfoolery amounts to anything significant remains to be seen.

Some Of You Are Starting To Catch On

2011-01-23T10:29:00.000-08:00

I came across this thread on RG last week and I had to chuckle a bit.

Wow, people are upset with the inefficient pricing of Fan Duel cap games? Where have I heard that before?

Remember, Zoobird and Kaiseroll13 think the FD pricing is "Just about perfect." Of course they both represent the site, so there's no conflict of interest there, right?

Can you tell I'm a wee pissed at Fan Duel?

Forget the pricing issue and the ridiculous amount of team play going on. What really burns me up is the frozen roster issue that happened about 10 days ago.

The contests "started" 64 minutes before the scheduled time. All of my rosters were "placeholders", they were 3k priced fillers while I crunched my numbers needed to field a competitive team.

Why is this important? well, I have to compete with other FD users for public games in the lobby. It's first come, first served. So I just use a random roster to get the match ups, then use my real roster later.

Needless to say, I lost all of my contests, scoring zero points.

Now I understand glitches happen, but this is not the first time for this scenario on FD. If they cannot handle the volume of play correctly they should alter their offerings.

The final straw for me was how they handled the resolution. I did get refunded, but I had to jump through several hoops, including send the same information through contact form and emails THREE TIMES.

FD also promised reduced rake on large buy in contests. Hasn't happened. They also only offer a large field hockey contest once every two weeks (with a small guarantee).

I have spent well in excess of $25k in entry fees on FD. I just don't feel they have done enough to receive my continued play.

I'm involved in an upcoming promo on Fantasy Sports Live, which has a better hockey cap game IMO. I also understand Draftstreet has started offering hockey, which I might try out.

I have a lot going on outside of daily fantasy right now and I'm not exactly sure what is the best use of time. When I figure things out I'll let you know.

Why Poker And I Will Never Be Intimate Again

2011-01-12T09:39:00.000-08:00

It happens every year.

When the new year approaches, I look at those juicy VIP rewards and think to myself, "You really could reach Palladium level VIP status."

I've played poker online every year since 2003, with moderate success. I consider myself a winning player, having cashed out more than I have deposited. I do take advantage of bonuses and rakeback, but my overall record keeping shows I am beating the game for the stakes I play. (I have limited experience in live casino poker, I'm down about $75 lifetime there.)

I've always been a fan of the "old people" games (7CS, LO8, 7CS8). These forms of poker are suited to my style of play. However, I'm experienced enough to adapt to table conditions. While lately I have been rockish, I can go LAG up in this hizzy.

I also do my best to focus. I only ONE table. I can handle more, but I want to pay attention to what my opponents are doing. I study hand histories after each session. I want to continually improve.

And this is where I hit my head against the brick wall, each and every year.

Even though I am an overall winner, I've had serious streaks of run bad. And I just can't wrap my head around them.

To paraphrase a line from (the book) "Tao of Poker": "At some point you will run better than you ever thought possible, but you will also run worse than you could ever imagine."

I just recently finished a 1500+ hand stretch of 7CS in which I never made a hand higher than a flush. This includes 5 hands of rolled up trips that never boated up. VPIP 19. I always put my money in during the right moments, but my hands never held or completed.

I know the poker experts reading this are saying, "So... ?"

The point is, I can't handle the run bad. The downswings. Perhaps it is more emotional than anything else.

The strange part is, it's ONLY poker that breaks my spirit. I can lose a sports bet without a blink of an eye. I have been getting killed in fantasy sports for a good six weeks and it's not really a big deal.

It just seems unnatural to me to lose so bad over that sample size. I'm not going tin foil hat here, I'm just saying I have trouble processing it.

In addition, poker is just too time consuming for me. To be a one-tabler and make anything significant at VIP, I would need to play nosebleeds.

Combine this with the constant cash out issues for US players and my emotional tilt from losing sessions - it's pretty obvious I need to concentrate on other activities.

So poker, it's not you - it's me. I'll call you sometime.

Value Betting Applied To Horse Racing

2011-01-09T11:05:00.000-08:00

I’ve had reasonable success betting thoroughbred horse racing recently and decided to share my approach to the ponies.

For simplicity, I’ll just discuss straight win betting. I do not usually bet exotics (exacta, trifecta, etc.) or verticals (daily double, pick 3, etc.).

My methods are not really a system, but more of a mindset. Long gone are the days of crusty track rats pouring over charts in the DRF. In the computer age you can handicap quickly, from the comfort of your home computer.

There is so much information between software, forums, multimedia and our twitterverse that finding solid data is not time consuming.

What I’m really saying here is don’t approach horse betting as trying to pick a single winner of a race. Approach betting as a market (or perhaps a supermarket). You are looking for good buys as you walk down each aisle (or race).

Starting point: Handicap the races

The important point to take away from handicapping is you don’t need just the best horse. You need the best 3-4 horses. In my experience the average field size is 8, so I’m looking for the top half of the field. It’s good to rank your selections, although this is not explicitly necessary.

I use a software program and it spits out ranked selections almost instantly.

Step two: Understanding market conditions

Horse racing uses a pari-mutuel betting system, which means the odds can change after you place a bet. Most players hedge this risk by placing bets as close to post time as possible.

Pari-mutuel betting also means you are playing against other bettors (after the track takes their cut). Other bettors may move the odds favorably to your selections, or also unfavorably away from them.

Many players think the take out (known as the rake in poker) is too large for a bettor to overcome. It is true that the takeout for the win pool is steep (12% or more), but value betting combats this by extracting exceptional payouts for your wagers.

In other words, you don’t have to hit many winners to come out ahead.

Step three: Setting market parameters

Now that you have your selections you need to figure out when to wager them and when to pass on them.

In my personal parameters, I never bet a race when:

-There are fewer than 6 selections in the race after scratches & changes. (A combined entry – like 1 & 1A – equals one selection).
-Any one horse in the field has odds BELOW 1/1 (i.e. 4/5, 3/5, 1/9).
-Any two horses in the field have odds BELOW 2/1 (i.e. 9/5, 3/2).

The more horses in the race usually means sweeter odds for your selections. It also means more opponents to beat.

If odds drop significantly on a horse this means heavy money is playing or something else is up. I stay away from races weighted too much towards one or two selections.

I choose to bet a race when all of the above is not met and when:

-Selection A,B,C or D has odds of 10/1 or higher, bet that selection.
-If two or three of your selections are 10/1 or higher, bet them.
-If all four selections are 10/1 or higher, bet only the top three selections.

Depending on the schedule or conditions, you might go several races without placing any wagers (because the parameters are not met).

These parameters are my choice and are not set in stone. What if your top selection is going off at 9/1? That’s awful close to 10/1. Or you can play much tighter and demand 12/1 payouts. Just find your comfort zone and stick to it.

The strategy in a nutshell

You are looking for “top four” horses that pay much better than they should. They are great values, thus the term value betting.

I should mention that bankroll and variance matter. It’s not uncommon to go 20+ races without a winner. I think 300 bets should be enough to withstand a cold streak. If it’s not, you’re probably betting too much. Tighten up.

You can bet horses online legally in the USA. Not only that, but you can get rebates (also known as rakeback in poker). The standard online rebates are 3% of each wager for straight bets and 5% for exotics. You can also drink for free in many race books just by betting minimum amounts on the ponies.

Here’s one last thing to consider. If you’re betting offshore, you’re likely betting against the house using track odds. This means your bet is not going into the pari-mutuel pool, thus not moving the odds. You might get even sweeter payouts under these circumstances, especially if you’re betting big.

Very few players make consistent money at horse betting. It’s not the quantity of the wagers; it’s the quality of the wagers. Good luck at the races!

Vegas Trip Report Day 5: Realities to Memories

2011-01-07T08:35:00.000-08:00

I woke up early Monday with really no plan of what to do until my flight left at 4:30 local time.

After getting dressed and packing I decided to find some breakfast and cash in my remaining winning tickets. As I left the casino, I was approached by an attractive woman who said, "Where are you going? Do you want some company?"

Finally. After five days in Vegas I was hit on by a hooker. At 9 AM. Outside.

I teased her a bit, asking her why she would want to have breakfast with a complete stranger. Although I found her attractive, the thought of how many cowboys she probably serviced during the night made me shudder inside.

She tried to work her game, but after our conversation I left her at the crosswalk as I headed over to MGM to cash out. So life goes on for both of us. (And I managed to go my whole trip without getting rolled. +1 for the newbie.)

I had some Starbucks & Krispy Kreme while deciding whether to place any bets before I left. You can mail in any winning tickets up to 120 days after the event finishes. Then you receive a check for your winnings.

I didn't see much to wager on, so I just finished my snack and left with my cash.

The rest of the day was pretty lame, I think I spent one day too many in Sin City.

I checked out and headed to the airport with hours to kill. I actually spent some time walking around looking for AlCantHang, as he tweeted he was at "the bar". The only problem was, which terminal? I looked through terminals B & C, so he must have been in A. Another bad beat.

The plane left 15 minutes late and arrived almost on time, touching down at midnight in Buffalo. It was snowing and 10 degrees. I caught a cab back to downtown and was glad to arrive home in one piece.

I even hit the corner bar for a cocktail before heading off to sleep. Because when I woke up, my trip was only a memory.

Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

2011-01-04T12:20:00.000-08:00

Recent results have been less than desirable.

I just had my worst month ever on Fan Duel. Almost exactly 2x the amount of the previous worst month.

And there is a reason for the double losses - the large field tournaments. I have whiffed in 6 of the last 7 tries, with the only significant cash barely covering the entry fees. The big fields bring big variance and I've been experiencing the bad side of that.

Heads-up contests have not been going any better. Normally I would acknowledge the players who have been outstanding, but pretty much everyone has been sticking it to me for a few weeks or more. So you're all equally better than me, at least for now.

Despite my hemorrage in December I still managed to finish the year in the black on Fan Duel, thanks to my awesome run in October-November.

Over on Fantasy Sports Live things have been a little brighter, I had my 2nd most profitable year of the four I've played so far. I finished the year with three consecutive winning months.

The only problem is the traffic is waning. It's getting harder to find any hockey match ups - at any price.

As a nice start to the new year I won $300 in bonus cash for the highest cumulative football score. If that isn't proof that projection models work, I don't know what is.

With football almost over and hockey action scarce, I may concentrate more of my time to poker and sports betting. I have been playing 7 stud daily since the new year, hopefully I won't burn out too quickly.

I've dealt with some pretty brutal losing streaks before. It all turns around eventually.

Vegas Trip Report Day 4: Falling Back

2011-01-01T22:47:00.000-08:00

I guess this is the part of the story I'm reluctant to tell. Sunday was easily my worst day in Vegas.

I woke up a little hungover, but got up in time to make my fantasy football picks. However, as I began to move around the room, I realized that somehow I managed to hurt my back.

Now I did A LOT of walking the previous two days, especially on Saturday. I even bought new walking shoes just before my trip. However, none of that seemed to help prevent the back pain I was experiencing.

My original plan was to go to Legasse's Sports Book and hang with the bloggers for a Sunday afternoon. This plan was dashed rather quickly. In fact, I couldn't even bring myself to walk across the street to MGM.

All I could really think about was falling back on the bed to relieve my sore back.

I had already placed some NFL bets on Saturday, and I saw some upcoming college basketball I wanted action on. Fortunately, there was a sports book in Hooters, so I managed to take the elevator down to the lobby and got my bets placed.

I returned to the room for some more rest, watching the Pats cruise to an easy win in snowy Chicago. I also followed the tweets of all the bloggers having a marvelous time together. I'm still disappointed about missing that event.

I grabbed a bite to eat and placed two hockey bets for the evening. After a long shower, I was feeling much better but still planned on staying at the hotel for the evening.

Since I had laid down all day, I was wide awake and well rested. I didn't really feel like catching another drunk buzz. So what else do you do when you're at a casino? You gamble, of course!

I ended up playing some slots and video poker in the lobby. I played for a couple of hours and dropped about $250. Let's just say that those -EV games are REALLY -EV. I feel stupid for playing them, and my only excuse for playing is because I was bored. I don't even feel like I got my money's worth in entertainment.

Ironically, the only slot machine I won any money on was called "Buffalo".

So I finished Sunday 3-5-1 on my sports bets, with my overall tally 15-10-1. So I was basically .500 after my 5-0 Friday.

Even with the slots losses, I'm still up a decent amount for the trip.

I headed back to my room pretty early, not sure what I was going to do for my last day in Vegas.

Vegas Trip Report Day 3: Meeting A Legend

2010-12-27T08:11:00.000-08:00

Well, I woke up Saturday morning with a fat wallet. Again, I was up early.

Saturday was the day of the blogger tournament at Aria. I had been on the fence about playing for a variety of reasons. After my good score on Friday, I decided to pass on the tourney, figuring I was dead money. Besides, I had already cashed more in the sports book than I was likely to win.

Plus I wasn't part of a team needed to get the added bonus cash.

I scooted over to MGM right at 10 AM to look at some lines. I made a few bets and headed back to the room to freshen up before the tournament. I put on a Bills shirt so I might stand out amongst the rail birds.

I walked over the Aria, finally figuring out how to cross the strip without having to use the overpass walkways. Those things give me pretty serious vertigo - like the dude in "Body Double". (Not sure what it is, maybe the traffic moving below upsetting my balance.)

I follow a bunch of signs pointing to Aria and walk through a pretty swanky upscale mall coming out at a traffic circle. There are 3 buildings, but not one of them has a sign saying what they are. I hit the 1st one and had to walk halfway through the place before I finally see a sign saying "Aria". So now I know at least I'm in the right place.

I make it to the poker room and see the tournament in progress. I sweat the proceedings for about 5 minutes when the 1st break happens. I see a mass exodus of bloggers head for the outdoor smoking section.

I shrug my shoulders and decide to go find a drink. I grab an $11 cocktail and decide to check on a few of my bets in the Aria sports book.

I watch the end of the Clippers game and decide to head back to the poker room. I manage to catch the end of the 2nd break, and see Dr. Pauly talking to a few folks in the back.

So I decide to go back and introduce myself. Pauly greets me with a big smile, "You must be Buffalo66! It's an honor to meet you!"

"Likewise", I replied. "The honor is truly mine."

We chatted for about 5 minutes on some sports stuff and I asked where I could find a couple of bloggers. Pauly is a very charismatic, popular guy and there were other folks there needing a minute with him. I chatted with Falstaff for a few then excused myself when the tournament resumed.

Now if you ever read my original blog - the poker incarnation (long since destroyed) - Pauly was the first person to ever read & comment on my scribe. To meet that person meant a lot to me.

Also let me make an obvious prediction. Pauly will blow up one day and become big star. Although I don't think it will come in the gambling, poker or phish worlds. I just think one day he will stumble onto a big story. Fall right into it. And because he's so good at capturing a moment, a person, a collective feeling - when he tells that big story to the world, he'll become a household name.

I don't know when it will happen, but it will.

Back to my story. I left the tournament and had a couple drinks at the bar closest to the poker room. I figured if people busted out I could catch a meet & greet with them. But after two more $11 cocktails I felt I was wasting my money there, and instead decided to walk around.

I walked around the strip on a very sunny day. Nothing really caught my attention other than the mass sea of humanity. I headed back to the hotel for some dinner.

After dinner & a change of clothes I walked back to MGM for some more wagering. Saturday night in the MGM is a sight to behold. This is the night people dress up (for whatever reason) and even the hookers were in their best attire.

I was waiting for a spot to sit down when the two 20-something dudes from yesterday spotted me. "Hey, it's hockey guy!", they said. More good luck, I thought to myself.

I placed some bets and sweated the early evening games. With still the late games to go, I decided to head back to the hotel bar. I had several drinks and struck up a conversation with a fella that had a local limo business. He hit a video poker royal flush while we were at the bar, and bought several rounds.

I made it back to my room pretty buzzed.

I managed to go 6-4 on my bets Saturday, up even more. Although the day was not very profitable if you include the food & drinks.

Buffalo66 Challenge Epilogue: Blinders Concedes

2010-12-25T06:36:00.000-08:00

Blinders emailed this week and asked if he could withdraw from the challenge. It became too time consuming for him, not to mention I was already close to clinching the overall series.

You can read his concession post here.

I just have to say two things about the challenge. First, I have the utmost respect for Blinders - he was the only one who had the stones to even take me on. He is definitely a worthy opponent.

And to all of the haters that laughed off or dismissed the challenge, I'm still here if you want to take me on. A multi-sport challenge is supposed to be difficult; that's why it's called a challenge.

With the proliferation of large field contests, I suspect the challenge will probably go the way of the dinosaur. Winning a fantasy sports donkament is the new gold standard on the daily scene.

Final results:

Baseball 7-5
Football 9-2
Hockey 2-0
Basketball 0-1

Overall 18-8

Let's Talk Salary Cap For A Minute

2010-12-23T06:14:00.000-08:00

This is something that is really bugging me right now. The salary cap games on Fan Duel are priced very inefficiently. This means that the prices of the players do not move accurately enough to reflect their performance.

A superstar that under performs sees his price rarely fall. This also means a value pick - a low priced player having a breakout fantasy season - will see his price move slowly upwards, but not enough to accurately price his fair value.

This has two effects on the game, as I see it:

1) Makes the bargains too obvious.
2) It doesn't make the cap "tight" enough. It allows you to pick obvious bargains in conjunction with studs. In other words, you don't have to make any sacrifices or tough choices.

Now I understand they offset this inefficiency by offering a expert cap game. The problem is, none of the significant money plays that game.

I have discussed the pricing model several times - even with Kaiseroll13 & Zoobird - and they seem to think the pricing model is almost perfect. Here is an actual Zoobird excerpt from Fan Duel chat today:

"No. We've thought about it, but if the prices are TOO accurate, then there's no real advantage to being good at these games.

Imagine if an all knowing God sets the prices...he knows the exact likelihood of all possible outcomes...so the prices are all fair, and you could do just as well throwing darts as researching the games

We think we have the balance about right, but do tweak things from time to time."

No disrespect to Zoobird, but I think this argument is baloney.

If the prices WERE accurate, the skill to the game is completely intact. Not only do you have to make tougher choices, you still have to know the injuries, suspensions, lineup changes, weather, favorable matchups, etc.

I realize I'm in the minority on my view. I also realize that Fan Duel wants to make the games easy to play, as they target the newbies to grow their player base.

It's just a shame that the biggest site (currently) has a lousy salary cap.

Vegas Trip Report Day 2: Magical MGM

2010-12-21T05:26:00.000-08:00

I was pretty beat from the travel and slept good Thursday night. I woke up early, probably because my body was still on east coast time. I grabbed some breakfast and decided to head over to the MGM sports book right at 10 AM to play some horses.

Before I went, I prepped my horse picks on my laptop. I had to write everything down on paper as my laptop wasn't allowed in the MGM. I handicapped about 8 tracks, not knowing which ones the MGM would offer.

Once I was at the book, I settled into a seat close to the cashier & the horse action. I grabbed a cup of coffee and started to look for value bets.

Two 20-something dudes were sitting behind me looking for something to bet on. They asked for some free cocktails but were rebuffed without wager tickets. I offered to give them my losing horse tickets so they could drink on the house. This may have brought me karma.

Just betting $2 win tickets, I managed to pull off 4 winners in quick succession, including a 57-1 longshot at Calder. It seems like the whole session was only 90 minutes, but I was probably there 2-3 hours.

I finished up $200 on the horses. I perused the sports selections and placed a wager on the Knicks. I hit Dr. Pauly up on twitter, hoping to meet up and sweat the game. I also placed a hockey bet.

I went back to Hooters and ate their wings for the very first time. They were very meh. I decided to chill out in the room for awhile and head back to the MGM close to 4 PM.

I wanted to get back to the MGM before the early college hoops games started, plus I knew the bloggers would be meeting there for mixed games poker. I got 2 college bets and a second NHL bet in for the evening.

I chilled out for a couple hours at the sports book sweating the games. I recognized several bloggers - BG was holding court at the far end of the book. I also pissed next to Iggy. I was going to say something to him but he looked like he was in a hurry. Pauly ended up sweating the game at IP so I never ran into him.

Despite all of the missed connections the evening was a gambler's dream. I went 5-0 in my sports bets, and combined with my horse winnings I was up several hundred dollars. After sweating out the late games I headed back to Hooters, had a couple drinks at the bar and then crashed.

It was a good day.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #26: Missed Connections

2010-12-20T17:23:00.001-08:00

After a two week hiatus, we were finally able to resume the challenge. Attempts to get some hockey or basketball going didn't work out. Then we both had a trip to Vegas and the NFL matchup didn't happen last Sunday.

I managed to win yesterday's football contest. The final score was 95-77. Results are here.

I was surprised when I ran the projections and Carolina was the top rated defense. Trusting my number crunching, I picked them and they put up a decent score.

My intuitive value pick of David Nelson also paid off. He didn't start in place of the injured Lee Evans, but he has now caught a TD in three consecutive games.

Arian Foster was the only player to really disappoint, but apparently he was playing hurt.

This victory leaves the challenge at 18-8 in my favor, with my lead in football at 9-2.

Vegas Trip Report Day 1: The FNG

2010-12-19T11:09:00.000-08:00

I slept in late Wednesday and stayed up through the night so I would ready to go early Thursday.

Leaving my house at 5:15 AM, I walked to the bus stop with my backpack & laptop bag. It was 12 degrees, dark and windy. I caught the 1st airport shuttle from the bus station at 6:15. Definitely a bargain for $1.75.

My first bad beat of the trip was going through security in Buffalo. The security agent motioned me to go through the scanner before I was completely free of my belt, which set off something. The agent asked me if my pockets were empty, to which I replied "Yes". However, I forgot my house keys were still in my back pocket.

Needless to say, I was pulled aside and detained for about 15 minutes, while they went through my stuff and asked me some questions. I experienced the wand & the aggressive pat down, followed by having my hands tested for explosive chemical residue. Finally, I was allowed to pass.

The flight was sold out, but that portion of the trip went smoothly. I arrived in McCarran about 11:30 AM Vegas time.

I ate lunch in the airport, took off a layer of clothes and went looking for a taxi. I arrived at my hotel (HOOTERS!) and checked in around 1 PM.

The room was clean although pretty spartan, but the bathroom was very nice. I took a long shower to wash the road off of me. After grabbing some lunch I walked across the street to the MGM.

I immediately fell in love with the MGM sports book. It's not as swanky or big as the pics online make it out to be. But it's legal wagering with everything displayed in an easy to read format.

I placed two bets and decided to walk around for a bit. I headed onto the strip towards Walgreens to stock up on some toiletries. After shopping I headed back to my room for a rest.

When it finally got dark I headed out to find the IP. I started walking in the wrong direction - I couldn't find the directions on my phone. So after about 15-20 minutes I decided to head back and catch a cab.

Arriving at the IP, I headed to the geisha bar to find out what the bloggers were up to. I settled in at the bar over by the TV, sweating the Colts. I saw several bloggers come & go while I chilled, but never interrupted their meet & greets. I honestly felt a little weird being the FNG, while these folks were having a happy reunion.

I made friends with the IP bartenders and they responded with several free drinks. Most of the bloggers went on to gamble, I stayed long enough to sweat my two bets and catch a little buzz. Once the late games were over (about 10 PM) I decided to saddle up and catch a cab back to the room.

I finished my betting 1-1 on the day, up a whopping $4.55. Unfortunately, I spent about $30 in cab rides.

I was pretty tired from my travels, and had no problem falling asleep.

System Reboot

2010-12-16T11:27:00.000-08:00

I'm back from Vegas and have adjusted to the cold of Buffalo.

I'll write up a trip report in a week or so. 5 days is plenty of time to stay in Vegas. I didn't get to meet as many folks as I wanted to, but it was a good experience.

So now I'm struggling to determine how to best dedicate myself (and my bankroll) to the upcoming new year. There are a lot of projects I have been considering outside of the usual daily fantasy routine.

There are also several topics I need to blog about, including the difference between sharing rosters / multi-accounting / team play.

However, there's one issue I want to get out of the way: Why I chose to leave rotogrinders. I wrote Cal and Cameron with my feedback of the site, and gave reasons why I chose not to participate anymore.

In this thread, Cal decided to make some of my comments public (which I'm really not too happy about). So let's just show you what I wrote to him and put it in the proper context:

"I wish you the best of luck with your site.

[redacted portion involving possible criminal activity]

Secondly, I have tried to support the community and contribute strategy when appropriate. But all of my contributions have been met with disdain and ridicule, mostly by players who won't even play me. (Heck, every grinder ranked ABOVE me won't play me.) I'm not saying I'm right about anything, just that's it's impossible to have a civil discussion in your forums.

Finally, I understand that you are running a business. And you want your site to grow with the industry. You are hoping to market that growth to the casual player, with the lure of big one day contest prizes. These players don't care how much they pay in rake. I get all that."

The bold portion is the point I was trying to get across. Either I failed at getting the point across or he failed to understand it.

I don't care what the other players think of me. It's just a waste of my time to have every strategy post derailed by players who refuse to step up and play meaningful opponents or stakes.

A lot more to blog when time permits.

The Most Hated Man In Daily Fantasy

2010-12-07T14:32:00.001-08:00

That's me. Although I don't completely understand why.

Someone hates me so much they harassed some dude in Maryland with a similar name to mine. That poor fella doesn't even play fantasy sports games.

I had my blogger account shut down this past weekend because some one's been trying to hack it.

And apparently I have a "personal macho agenda" because of my game selection methodology.

(According to the argument presented in that thread, no daily fantasy opponents are beatable long term? Somebody please explain it to me so I can understand.)

Look, I try not to be results oriented. My results in December are actually pretty crappy so far. But my strategies have made me money, no question. I've never said they are optimal strategies. But all of the contrary arguments presented about my strategies suggest that NOT PLAYING AT ALL is the only true method to avoid -EV.

For someone that is so despised - and someone that has the apparent methodologies of a fish - I sure have trouble getting action lately. I can only count on one opponent (and his dummy accounts) for regular contests. Higher variance, for sure.

Well, the daily fantasy market will be a utopia for the next few days while I travel to Las Vegas tomorrow. I'll be out of the contest pool for several days. Everyone can save up their hate for when I return next week.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #26: Low Tide

2010-12-06T20:51:00.000-08:00

I won another football contest in the challenge. Final score was 105-65. Results are here.

I wasn't as confident going into Sunday, because a lot of my targeted players were in the Thursday night game. And my choice at QB, Aaron Rodgers, was playing in a cold weather game.

However, Rodgers performed as expected, with a 3 TD afternoon. Adrian Peterson also ran all over the Bills for another 3 TDs.

Even with that help, I put up a relatively low score.

Going into the Monday Night game, Blinders needed about 60 points to make it close. Unfortunately for him, the Jets were crushed.

This put the overall challenge at 18-8 in my favor. I also lead the football portion 8-2.

I'm leaving for Las Vegas Wednesday, so there will only be a football challenge this week, but hockey & hoops will resume when I return.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contests #24 & #25: Split Doubleheader

2010-12-02T09:16:00.000-08:00

Last night in the challenge we had a rare doubleheader: A hockey contest and a basketball contest.

I managed to win the hockey contest, 20-17. Results are here. I got just enough out of my Washington & Montreal skaters to offset a poor goal tending performance. Blinders roster had a great goaltender, but little offense.

This victory put my lead in hockey at 3-0.

We also had our first basketball tilt. Blinders won 253-242. Results are here.

This wasn't as close as the score might seem. I did benefit from a triple OT game in NJ, with 3 players on my roster. But very poor nights from Augustine (foul trouble) and Nowitzki (limited minutes in blowout) left me on the short end.

This gives Blinders the hoops lead at 1-0.

However, I retain the overall lead at 17-8. I need just 8 more wins to clinch the series outright.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #23: Football Clincher

2010-11-29T19:18:00.000-08:00

I won the latest football contest in the challenge. Final Score was 129-96. Results are here.

Blinders and myself both chose Aaron Rodgers at QB, who had solid day. We also shared Peyton Hillis' monster 37 point effort.

My one value pick of Randy McMichael really didn't pan out. I was hoping that Gates might still be hurt or ineffective, thus giving my TE more touches.

Regardless, most of my roster put up decent scores, giving me a comfortable margin of victory.

This win clinches the football portion of the challenge, with my lead at 7-2.

The overall challenge is now 16-7 in my favor.

Collaboration In Daily Fantasy Sports

2010-11-26T10:02:00.000-08:00

When I started playing daily fantasy 4 years ago, it was every man for himself. Heck, you couldn't even get good player information online. There wasn't preemptive player news that could help your roster.

Now, that information is prevalent (and in some cases, redundant). But there's another development in the flow of information - collaboration between fantasy players.

It's no secret that daily players share lineups with their trusted brethren within the community.

My favorite early example of this is tuffled1 & ucla2 sharing/using identical lineups on Fan Duel. Now, this was back when everyone was matched up randomly, much like private entries work today.

This is basically an angle shoot. Since identical roster contests get their full entry fees refunded, this was a way for these two players to hog the contest pool. By bombing the pool with entries, the algorithm used would give them the most match ups. They never had to worry about playing each other (and losing rake).

This also suggests to me why they never played auto pick - because they would be forced to face each other with unique rosters.

In the current daily climate, it's gone even further. I have had players solicit me to share my roster for a fee (usually a percentage of their winnings). Players have also set up cliques - through chat, PM, IM, bulletin boards and message boards - in which they share roster & player info.

Heads up players have now become TEAMS of heads up players. Although it's not hard to figure out who is working together, it does affect game selection a little bit.

I don't really avoid anybody in the contests I play, so I hope the collaboration doesn't grow to where I am taking on 50 identical rosters.

Hopefully the proliferation of large field contests will stem the tide of this angle shoot.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #22: Streak Continues

2010-11-22T08:04:00.000-08:00

I won the latest football contest in the challenge. Final score was 131-108. Results are here.

We both picked Michael Vick and the same kicker, but the rest of the rosters were different.

In the battle of value priced RB's, My pick of Fred Jackson outscored Cedric Benson 24-18.

But the highest performing unique pick was my choice of Greg Jennings. His 3 TD night scored him a total of 33.

With this victory, I'm now on a series best 5 game winning streak.

This leaves the overall challenge at 15-7 in my favor. I also lead football 6-2.

The challenge will resume next Sunday.

The Player Haters Daily Fantasy Challenge

2010-11-20T08:20:00.000-08:00

Thank you for all the hate you've sent my way, bitches.

Since nobody is willing to take me on in a five sport daily fantasy challenge, I present to you a new challenge for all of the player haters out there. This challenge can start right now and only involves the two winter sports (hoops & hockey).

-50 total autopick draft contests @$107 each
-25 basketball & 25 hockey
-2 contests every Wednesday (big NBA schedule night)
-2 contests every Saturday (big NHL schedule night)

This challenge is open to anyone. I don't care. I'll take on multiple opponents if I get more than one offer.

So hate all you want. In the immortal words of Silky Johnson:

"I hate you, I hate you, and I don't even know you and I hate your guts. I hope all the bad things in life happen to you, and nobody else, but you."

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #21: Corrective Comeback

2010-11-18T07:38:00.000-08:00

I won the latest hockey contest in the challenge. The final score was 42-31. Results are here.

I actually almost missed this contest. I was very busy correcting all of my rosters when I saw Blinders' email with 3 minutes before start. I managed to fill it out in time to get the contest going.

Early on it did not look good. Stamkos scored as usual - he has been on fire all season. Washington took care of business, giving Neuvirth a win.

However, my team finally got going when Zetterberg scored in the 3rd, with Datsyuk adding 2 assists. Detroit ended up winning 7-3, giving my goalie Howard a matching win.

The dagger of the night was Jonathan Toews, who posted a natural hat trick against the Oilers. His 15 points were more than the margin of victory.

Blinders really put up a solid effort. His only mishap was selecting Perron, who is still out with concussion symptoms.

I wasn't sure what the final margin would be due to scoring issues on Fan Duel last evening. When they corrected scores this morning, I was able to see the final tally.

This win puts my overall lead in the challenge at 14-7. I also lead hockey 2-0.

Another football contest this Sunday.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #20: Halfway Home

2010-11-15T22:39:00.000-08:00

I won another football contest in the challenge. The final score was 153-99. Results are here.

Going into the Sunday night game, I was trailing Blinders by almost 25 points. However, I still had 3 players to overcome the deficit.

I managed to score 31 between Mike Wallace & Heath Miller, mostly in garbage time with the Steelers down a bunch. This gave me a 5 point lead.

Then Michael Vick went off for almost 50 points on Monday night.

I now have a 13-7 overall lead in the challenge, with a 5-2 lead in football. My "magic number" is now 12, as 25 wins will clinch the challenge outright.

Hopefully we will get in another hockey contest before the next football Sunday.

Personal Growth In Daily Fantasy Sports

2010-11-15T07:08:00.000-08:00

I've been playing the daily contests for 3-4 years and I've won or lost in almost every way imaginable. Walk off 3 run HR, 14 round OT shootout, or power outage in an arena. You name it, it's probably happened.

When I started to play, I would "sweat" (watch) the games religiously. It was fun to have a little action riding on a team or a player. I could find myself cheering a play one minute then cursing the next play.

You might find yourself screaming through the TV at the manager to make a move, or yelling at the coach to foul/kick a field goal. (Of course they can't hear you!)

Now as the daily fantasy traffic began to grow, more of my time was spent finding opponents and doing research (projections). I could still watch the games once the contests started, but I'd more likely listen to radio broadcasts while I worked on getting more matchups.

After 3+ years of winning and losing - sometimes in strange ways, I guess you become somewhat numb to it. I just feel that way these days. When I hear people boast or whine about the wins & losses, I do understand where they are coming from. But I'm SO over it.

Developing my projections gave me a rather simple method to grade my team's performance. Since each player has a projected score, my roster has a total projected score. So my team will over perform or under perform, based upon the final tally.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #19: Good Enough

2010-11-08T11:02:00.000-08:00

I managed to win another football contest in the challenge. The final score was 134-99. Results are here.

I really didn't spend as much time on this roster as I hoped to. I made my picks rather quickly and didn't follow up when the last hour info came out.

I had Kellen Winslow as my #2 projected TE and Brandon Marshall as my #5 WR. Both failed to produced much of anything.

I had considered picking up a 2nd Chargers WR with Gates out, or perhaps McMichael/Tamme at TE. I also considered changing my K to upgrade with Green Bay defense. Any of these changes would have improved my score immensely.

Instead, I just decided to trust my original picks - and fortunately it was good enough to win.

So this leaves the challenge at 12-7 in my favor, also leading the football portion 4-2.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #18: Hockey!

2010-11-07T07:54:00.001-08:00

Last night we had our first hockey contest of the challenge. I won handily, 51-17. Results are here.

I had to make a last minute change on about 25 of my hockey rosters, when I found out Logan Couture would take the place of the suspended Joe Thornton. He did not disappoint, with a goal and an assist.

I actually played the whole line of Marleau-Couture-Heatley. They are great at home, while TB was on a brutal road trip with several injuries. My line figured in 4 of the 5 SJ goals.

Blinders loaded up with 5 Dallas skaters, but they were trounced 5-0 in Colorado.

This leaves the challenge at 11-7 in my favor, with a 1-0 lead in hockey.

Football runs again today.

Haters Gonna... Something

2010-11-05T10:04:00.001-07:00

(I originally wanted to title this "Eff The Hatahs" but Waffles has the copyright on that.)

It's so funny to me how players want to hate on me when I'm winning. I've been doing this fantasy sports thing for about four years and I've had some amazing swings.

This MLB season was especially brutal. However, I had a great October, cashing some big prizes on Fan Duel. Even without the big contests I still had an excellent month.

All that the players haters can see are the short term results. "I went 45-0 last night." I've had plenty of night like that, without saying a peep to anyone. I've also had the 0-30 nights too. I'd much rather talk about those. The losing nights are much tougher for me to let go. I obsess over them.

With the advent of fantasy sports chat & message boards, the "community" is becoming more intimate, but not necessarily in a good way.

Let me cite specific examples, in a hater-to-me format:

Hater: "Why won't you play me at $xxx buy in. You just play the kiddie games."

Everyone knows I spread my action out over all opponents. I've explained this multiple times. I'll play as high as the traffic allows me to spread it out. Believe me, I can afford your buy in. When I can also match up against ten other haters at that level, I'll play there.

If you want to double your action against me, play both the draft/pick format and the salary cap.

And if you really think I'm a fish, take the Buffalo66 Challenge. I'll play $213 per contest, no problem.

Hater: "You're nothing but a leader board whore".

I wish! Whores get paid right? Getting paid to be on the leader board would be awesome.

Actually, I hate leader boards. I have asked to be removed from leader boards many times. It kills my action on the sites. Players see my name up there and they won't match my entries.

The only leader board/rankings I voluntarily joined were over at rotogrinders. They are trying to bring new players into the fold and I want to support that effort, because it means more money for all of the regulars.

BTW, their formula for ranking will never allow me to get to #1 overall. Not to mention if Kaiseroll13 was joined too he would be #1.

Hater: "You are a _______ ."

You can call me names, homey. I can take it. But why do people gravitate towards 12 year old behavior in this community. I think WoW players are probably more mature.

I understand that daily fantasy = instant gratification. People also like to talk smack. Whatever it takes to make you feel better about yourself.

But if you call me out, don't get all bent out of shape if I respond. I know players have spread lies about me. I carry the truth with me at all times, so ASK ME if you want to know something about me.

Now from a karmic standpoint, I probably deserved to be hated on a little bit for hating on Kaiseroll13 earlier this year. I apologized for being mean towards him, regardless of whether he did something shady or not.

To quote Jerry Maguire, "The world is a cynical place." I don't expect everyone to be nice to me. It's just tiring hearing the same old hater shit over and over.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #17: Last Minute Indecision

2010-11-01T21:25:00.000-07:00

I lost the most recent football contest in the challenge. Final score was 124-115. Results are here.

I originally set up my roster with Deion Branch, who was announced as a game time decision at 12:30 pm (30 minutes before start time). So I rearranged my K, TE and WR corp with different personnel.

When the contest went off we had 4 identical players, making the game a 5-on-5 tilt. I expect this to happen more often as the season progresses, because the value plays become more obvious.

Our one unique WR match up was Brandon Marshall vs. Calvin Johnson. Megatron (CJ) put up a huge day with 28 points. This put me in a big hole. My TB defense managed to put up 20 points (despite giving up 35 points at home!). However, I fell 10 points short after the Sunday games.

Going in Monday night we had all of the same players active, so it left the outcome as a victory for Blinders.

This leaves the overall challenge at 10-7 in my favor, with the football portion favoring me 3-2.

Sometimes, 2nd Place Is Pretty Darn Good

2010-10-28T09:36:00.000-07:00

Last night, Fan Duel held another large salary cap contest. However, it was NBA, which is my weakest discipline.

I was expecting the "slam" to fill up completely - 400 entries. I decided to take 12 shots and adjusted my rosters accordingly.

Much to my surprise there were only 366 rosters entered. I kind of regretted not putting in more attempts.

Regardless, my rosters were varied enough to yield two cashes: 2nd place for $600 and 7th place for $160.

While I'm pleased with the result, I'm not sure I'll be playing NBA salary cap regularly. I'll stick to the auto pick games if I have my choice.

Including my regular play yesterday, I'd say this night was definitely a top ten earner for me, perhaps top five. Still not close to my best night ever (profit wise).

October has been a great month, making up for a horrible summer.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #16: 60k Success

2010-10-25T11:42:00.000-07:00

I manged to win another football contest in the challenge. Final score was 135-99. results are here.

I decided to stick with the standard 60k cap instead of the expert 55k cap, mostly because I had won both previous 60k contests.

We manged to have a few similar picks this week, including Roddy White, who went off and scored 32.1 points by himself. We both had BAL kicker Cundiff, who scored a respectable 15 points.

I wanted Olindo Mare, but the weather report was heavy rain and 18mph winds in Seattle. This also convinced me to take the SEA defense, which ranked #2 in my projections.

Mare went on to have a great game, but my change in DEF paid off with 16 points. It also allowed me to afford Rodgers at QB, who put up a small margin over Brees.

Overall, my entire team chipped in for a great score.

This leaves the overall challenge at 10-6 in my favor, with football favoring me 3-1.

Bum Hunting In Daily Fantasy Sports

2010-10-22T09:41:00.000-07:00

I'd been saving this post for an earlier publish, but with all the activity lately I had to push it back.

Now that football, hockey and basketball are all about to be in full swing, there's an explosion in traffic at the daily fantasy sites like Fan Duel and Fantasy Sports Live. With this increase in traffic comes an interesting mix of new players, casual players and "Serious Business" players, like yours truly.

Any fantasy player that plays TO MAKE MONEY, will try to find an edge in the games and exploit that edge to a maximum advantage.

There's nothing wrong with profit motive. That's why I play the games. However, my experience shows that the way to maximize your profits is not by beating up exclusively on new and casual players.

If I find a weak opponent and chase him mercilessly - taking every matchup at every opportunity - he will leave the fantasy scene permanently, bearing only the small reward of those brief contests.

My competitor Blinders recently wrote this post claiming that he has a method to play only exclusively new and casual opponents. He is basically calling himself a "Bum Hunter" - playing only the weakest competition to extract maximum advantage in contests.

Now there is a difference between game selection and bum hunting. Employing game selection means choosing contests that are within your skill level and risk level (including bankroll). Good players can play other experienced players - with both utilizing game selection.

Bum hunting is chasing down the weakest competition, wherever they may be. In Blinders' example, he is hunting down newbies in the smallest dollar games by using profiling in the matchup process.

So what is all of his bum hunting worth? A bunch of $5 contest wins over 14 weeks of the NFL season? Running off dozens of new players that might have stayed if they had easier opponents out of the gate? Not much to brag about IMO.

There are several other regulars out there that are also bum hunters. I'm not going to name any names, but some of the top players try to avoid regulars at all costs.

Let me tie this all together for you with two points:

1) If you want to make serious money in daily fantasy, you have to play serious opponents. These are the players with the deep pockets. No crying that a player is too good. Hang with the good players (within your bankroll) and you'll have days worth writing about.

(Also, learn to win at more than one sport if you want to have more than bubble gum money in your pocket.)

2) Spread your action out equally amongst all opponents, good and bad. I cannot emphasize this enough. This is a major key to my success.

I might see 2-3 contests available against a weak opponent, but I will take only one. Why? I want him to win the other two contests. I want him to stick around and bleed off all of his other winnings to me. In the long run, I will make more off of him than the bum hunter could make.

Don't forget that spreading out your action will reduce your risk exposure. If you score well on a given night, you will win most of your contests (regardless of the opponent). If you score poorly, playing a wide variety of opponents will still likely garner you some wins (thus saving some bankroll).

Ideally, on any given night my action will be EQUALLY spread out amongst all possible opponents.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #15: Mistaken Identity

2010-10-18T19:24:00.000-07:00

I managed to win the most recent football contest in the challenge. Estimated final score was 101-89. Results are here.

The reason I say "estimated" final score - it's because I still have a player active. But he'll probably never see the field in the Monday night game.

I saw Zach Miller in the player pool at a very attractive price. he was my #3 ranked TE. I just didn't realize there were TWO Zach Millers (spelling the same) in the NFL.

So with my 2nd rookie mistake of the challenge, I picked the backup Jaguars TE for my roster instead of the Raiders all-pro.

This blunder made have turned into a wonder for me, but the contest was close for most of Sunday.

We were neck and neck as the late games progressed, but a very questionable pass interference call in the DEN/NYJ game gave Blinders new life. A TD plunge for Tomlinson, plus a last minute drive by DEN. This was looking like a disaster for me.

Denver fumbled away their last chance after moving about 30 yards.

So I needed about 20 points to take the lead for good With Peyton Manning & Reggie Wayne playing Sunday night. They delivered just enough for a comfortable margin, despite several Indy turnovers.

I was surprised Blinders chose the regular cap, since he crushed me with the expert cap. I'm still not sure which I like better, although my record is better with the standard version.

This leaves the challenge at 9-6 in my favor, with my football portion lead at 2-1.

Shootout At Fan Duel Corral

2010-10-16T23:08:00.000-07:00

Last night was a promo contest at Fan Duel. A hockey cap contest with unlimited $10 entries and a $755 prize pool.

I decided to take 10 stabs at it, figuring my chances were better than most.

I was kind of pissed when it wouldn't let add more than one entry. There were only about 50 entries total, and I figured most decent players would lay off once the overlay was eliminated.

Support said they would fix the glitch and multiple entries were allow with 3 hours to go. I put in my 10 rosters even though there was an UNDERLAY (meaning more entry fees than prize money).

I chose 5 goalies I thought would perform and put 2 different rosters with each goalie choice. 3 of my goalies won and 2 lost. Probably no coincidence that my 5 of my 6 entries with winning goalies cashed.

As I filled out my 10 rosters, two things popped into my head: 1) It would take 60 points to win 1st, and 2) I need at least ONE roster with Sidney Crosby.

So my last roster edit, I added Sid the kid to the team.

The combination of a Crosby hat trick, my goalie winning, and my obvious value pick David Booth putting up 2 G, 1 A was enough to give me the 60+ points for first.

What was more surprising - I had 4 more rosters finish in the top 10 for 5 total cashes:

None of those secondary cashes had Crosby.

I'm sure I rubbed a lot of players the wrong way by putting in multiple entries. But they had the right to do the same. I know one other player had at least 4 entries.

Now Fan Duel gets some things right and gets some things wrong. I am tough on them because I think it is the best place to play daily fantasy. They are the only site really growing right now, and they need to listen to their regulars to ease the growing pains. It will pay off in the long run.

While this was a great win promotion wise, I've had much better nights (profit wise). This isn't even close to my best money night.

But I hope this showcases the skill involved in daily fantasy. As I've said all along, it really is a game of skill.

Daily Fantasy Sports Is Headed In The Wrong Direction

2010-10-12T09:00:00.000-07:00

(Quick update before my rant: I started out the hockey season with a 34 for 34 perfecto on opening night. Followed it up with another strong winner. However, I came back to earth with some losing nights, including my worst football Sunday of the season.)

I'm so frustrated with the "powers that be" in daily fantasy sports; I'm actually considering retirement. They are pushing me in that direction.

While there has been a solid explosion in the number of daily fantasy sites available, there has also been an effort to reduce the amount of skill actually involved in the games.

Basically, there are two types of contests: Salary cap & auto pick/draft. Every contest available is a variation on these two styles.

I have stated in this space before that auto pick is the most skillful version, because it guarantees the competing roster will have no identical players.

There is also more skill in the draft selection process, as opposed to fitting your roster under a cap.

While salary cap is less skillful, it can be skillful enough – provided that the cap is “tight” (forcing players to make some tough choices) and the pool is re-priced regularly, reflecting fantasy performances.

My favorite place to play daily fantasy, Fan Duel, is failing on both of these fronts. I was recently told they are eliminating auto pick because it isn’t popular enough. And their salary cap offering fails in its re-pricing strategy, IMO. (Also, the regular cap is just too loose.)

I understand where Fan Duel is coming from. They are in business to make money. They are trying to attract the most users to their site. They have to make the games easy to play. They want the users to be able to pick all of the popular players for their rosters. (*ahem*, auto pick?)

So Fan Duel produces soft cap games, including some with BIG prizes. It gets a lot of eyes and traffic in their direction. They have marketed well through newspaper networks. They have brought a lot of new players to daily fantasy.

But through their actions they are saying to me, “We don’t want any experienced players. We’ll eliminate auto pick and make our cap games less skillful then they could be. We are trying to remove as much skill as possible to level the competition.”

Now I have no problem with the donkaments on Fan Duel. Go for the brass ring. But if they eliminate auto pick, they will lose all of my football & basketball action.

Don’t think I’m just picking on one site. All of them leave something to be desired.

I cashed out of Draft Zone last night. There’s just not enough traffic to support continued play there. And only 7 roster spots for hockey, 5 roster spots for NASCAR.

Draft Street and Sports Geek have no hockey or NASCAR.

Fantasy Factor has no cap games only? I’ll pass.

365 Fantasy Sports won’t let me look at their offerings without registering, but from what I can tell, no draft games are available.

Fantasy Sports Live has a flawed, but playable draft game. However, their traffic seems to have really slowed in hockey and NASCAR.

And LOL Snapdraft, GG.

Now if these sites want me to keep large deposits of money with them, and churn those deposits for as much rake as possible, they have to put up offerings I think I can win.

If you want the daily fantasy scene to explode with a real-life “baller” – like the one portrayed in the Kaiseroll13 ads, there has to be skillful contests. Otherwise the big winner will be one lucky guy who won the biggest donkament. And that’s not a grinder by any means.

I have other options besides daily fantasy. Heck, I even have legal sports betting 20 minutes away from my home. Perhaps I’ll put my money into that.

More on all of this at a future date.

Buffalo66 Challenge Contest #14: Completely Underwhelmed

2010-10-10T20:47:00.000-07:00

I lost the latest football contest in the challenge, 119-80. Results are here.

This is the first week I've played with the expert cap and it didn't seem to make too much of a difference in the level of competition. You are forced to take more value picks, usually 4-5 roster spots instead of 1-2 under regular cap.

Blinders' roster performed well above expectation. Only Arian Foster and Clayton put up lousy scores. I had Clayton as well, negating any advances I could make.

My team was a complete opposite. I had 7 of my 9 players under perform their projections. With the exceptions of Nedney and Michael Bush, it was a disastrous performance all around.

The contests was pretty much over by the start of the late games. This was definitely my biggest clunker of the NFL season.

So now the series sits at 8-6 in my favor. The football portion is tied 1-1.

Tune in next week!

Some Daily Fantasy Deep Thoughts

2010-10-05T10:52:00.000-07:00

Fantasy football has been profitable so far this season. Winner, loser, break even, winner.

I've concentrated much more on the autopick/draft games. Any roster where you pick at least 4 deep at some positions is better suited to this type of contest.

The salary caps on Fan Duel continue to be cream cheese soft. If it weren't for autopick, I probably wouldn't play there much at all. I'm hoping they adjust the hockey cap - right now it's way too high. (Went from 35k last year to 55k.)

Outside of FSL, I can't seem to get any NASCAR action. Two weeks ago, I got exactly $1 in action across all sites.

Draft Zone is a freaking ghost town. In ALL sports. It's a shame, because I do like their offerings.

Why the hell does fantasy factor need a download client when they only run no-cap games?

I would love to play Shawn Childs in a daily fantasy game (in any sport) that forces you to make at least ONE tough decision.

I'll never make the top of the Roto Grinders leader board if they continue to use their current formula. (Although I will gain 700 points on PrimeTime420 once the basketball points reset.)

Anyone who cries to me this year about playing them too much in hockey... well, tough luck. Stick to the sites I don't play on.

Finally some players have said my week 4 cap team would've won the FFFC on Fan Duel. Whatever. I don't play the FFFC because they aren't offering enough GUARANTEED prize money for the effort.

When they offer a decent prize structure, I will offer them my entry fees.