Eleven Years is Enough

Well it has been awhile, people. Writing a blog post in 2019 is kind of like buying a Segway instead of a Tesla. I have a lot I want to say here, so thank you in advance for taking the time to read it. 11 years is not a long time in some respects, but with technology it's an eternity. 

Very few of our devices last 11 years. (Operating systems certainly do not.) It's also an eternity for the user. I blogged consistently for 11 years. My first blog was hijacked during blogger maintenance (*shakes fist*).

 I started out blogging for a personal creative outlet, but it became so much more than that. During the poker and DFS booms, it was also a source of income. It was also a social outlet, with commentators/fellow bloggers becoming internet friends.

 11 years is a unique milestone for me. I've been on Facebook and Twitter for 11 years. It's been 11 years since I started playing DFS competitively. And 11 years is when is seems to turn into something else than what it was meant to be for me.

 Blogging fell out of favor for social media. I also had life changing health issues in 2014, which changed how I budgeted my time. You can carry your phone anywhere, so Twitter was always with me.

 I started on Twitter to take advantage of the burgeoning DFS industry. By 2012 I realized that industry was now taking advantage of me. The rampant cheating that ensued is still getting swept under the rug. I used the voice I had to try and shed light on how the new, inexperienced players were getting screwed and thus killing any growth momentum. Most of my tweets were drowned out by industry cronies.

 Five or so years later, everyone knows about Ethangate and all of the DFS shenanigans. Other people have taken over as DFS watchdogs. (That industry is really dead without new game innovation IMO.)

 I also learned about Cville and Groovin Mahoovin on Twitter. An autistic-ally snarky group that is both funny and sharp, I learned a shit ton about sports betting from them, mostly just by paying attention to their tweets.

 I moved from DFS to sports betting in 2013, after a 2012 trip to Vegas convinced me it would be the more attractive game going forward. And the overturn of PASPA just reinforces that. I have definitely improved as a bettor since 2013 (at least learning I suck at some disciplines) posting my records for the last 6-7 seasons. 

So what's changed? This year I have realized Twitter is not any longer about an exchange of ideas. Now, I'm not above going for a cheap joke, but at the end of the day my time on social media has to be worthwhile for me - I have to budget my time and energy very tightly.

 Twitter as become an "influencing" platform, not unlike Instagram. That is its #1 purpose. I just don't want to be a part of that.

 I feel like I have nothing left to give or prove on social media. It's easy to sit back and bash touts all day but its not going to stop them from doing their shady shit. And I don't want to have to sift through 100 bad tweets to get to a good one.

 So after the last football game on Thanksgiving (11/28/19) I will delete my social media. I'm giving everybody 30 days to say what they have to say, usurp my content, archive my tweets or mock me relentlessly. Those of you that want to reach out after that will have to figure out a way to get a hold of me.

 I will continue to do my weekly Sportsbook Confidential video podcast. (And I will maintain a twitter account for the show but will not actively monitor it.) I still feel strongly about producing quality content for beginning bettors, whether it gets a lot of views or not.

 I'm a better person for having known almost all of you and I appreciate what the time I've spent online has given me. Thank you.

An Update On Things Not Currently Happening

Since last Friday I've been dealing with a lot of "off-line" issues that have interfered with the kelly experiment, among other things.

I've been on new medications while coincidently experiencing poor health recently.  I'm not sure if the two are directly related but it has impacted my daily life and needs to be investigated further.  I've had trouble sleeping which further exascerbates my energy levels.

Added to that is a surprising development that my lease may now be terminated and I'll be forced to move.  (The owners want to renovate the space.)  If this happens, I'll be even more unavailable to work on the new content I've planned to launch.

I just have to take care of me right now.  The numbers will always be there to crunch at a later date.  The huge amount of uncertainty in my life right now is soul crushing to my motivation.  I know things will sort themselves out over time, eliminating the anxiousness.

Thanks for tuning in here if you've been following me over the years.  This is not a goodbye, just a BRB.

Kelly Index Wagering Results 4/24

A good night in NHL but overall resulted in a small loss.

4/24 starting bankroll:  0.94386

LA Clippers +172 L
Min. Wild  +125 W
Senators +144 W
NY Mets +124 L
Orioles -104 L
Tigers -130 L (POD)
Brewers +124 L
Diamondbacks +115 L
Rangers +164 L
Dodgers -114 W

Daily W-L:  3-7, -0.00909
Daily ROI:  -22.83%
Cumulative W-L:  162-206, -0.31523
Cumulative ROI:  -11.84%

Ending bankroll:  0.93477

Kelly Index Wagering Results 4/23

Another OT loss in NBA but a good baseball night results in an overall gain.

4/23 starting bankroll:  0.93016

Mil. Bucks +124 L
Cgy. Flames +133 L
TB Rays -105 W (POD)
Pirates -101 W
Phillies +104 L
Tigers +100 L
Rockies +101 W
Giants +114 W
Cardinals +120 W
A's +100 L
Orioles +110 L
Royals +139 W

Daily W-L:  6-6, +0.01370
Daily ROI:  +29.76
Cumulative W-L:  159-199, -0.30614
Cumulative ROI:  -11.68%

Ending bankroll:  0.94386

Kelly Index Wagering Results 4/22

A fair amount of winners, but my largest play on the Clippers lost in OT, resulting in a step backwards.

4/22 starting bankroll:  0.94883

LA Clippers -112 L (POD)
Min. Wild -135 L
Ducks +112 W
NY Yankees +158 W
White Sox +105 W
Marlins +119 W
Royals -152 L
Brewers +115 L
Diamondbacks -112 W
Astros +145 L
Giants +125 W

Daily W-L:  6-5, -0.01867
Daily ROI:  -36.74%
Cumulative W-L:  153-193, -0.31984
Cumulative ROI:  -12.42%

Ending bankroll:  0.93016

Kelly Index Wagering Results 4/20

Only 8 plays tonight but what a result.  It's rare things work out all to the good.

I have a lot of work away from my keyboard tomorrow so I may have to take a day off.

4/20 starting bankroll:  0.91091

NY Rangers -115 W
Ducks +122 W
Det. Tigers -115 W (POD)
Cubs +108 W
Reds +103 W
Padres +115 W
A's +134 W
Astros +145 W

Daily W-L:  8-0, +0.03792
Daily ROI:  +111.46%
Cumulative W-L:  147-188, -0.30117
Cumulative ROI:  -11.93%

Ending bankroll:  0.94883

Kelly Wagering Index Results 4/19

It was a fairly large schedule of games Sunday.  I split the playoff games and won enough overall to turn a small profit.

The model seems to favor dogs in general, I think I've had the Phillies almost every day this week.

4/19 starting bankroll:  0.90813

LA Clippers -106 W (POD)
Wsh. Capitals +127 L
Senators -120 L
Flames -115 W
TB Rays +107 L
Tigers -133 W
Braves +158 W
Marlins +163 L
Orioles +125 W
Brewers +155 L
Phillies +204 L
Twins +113 W
Royals +107 W
Padres +120 W
Rangers +149 L
Rockies +156 L
Reds +164 L


Daily W-L:  8-10, +0.00278
Daily ROI:  +2.89%
Cumulative W-L:  139-188, -0.33909
Cumulative ROI:  -13.61%

Ending bankroll:  0.91091

Kelly Index Wagering Results 4/18

The start of NBA was not successful even though I only had two basketball wagers.  Overall a poor day and a new low point for the bankroll.

It seems I always get crushed on the Saturday schedule.  That could be some memory bias (as we all remember the soul crushing days) but it's been awhile since I can remember a great weekend.

I'm not feeling very energetic this week but I will try to keep up as best I can.  

4/18 starting bankroll:  0.93021

Mil. Bucks +309 L
Mavericks +180 L
Min. Wild +126 L
Red Wings +161 L
Penguins +161 W
Jets +126 L
TB Rays -103 L
Tigers -119 L (POD)
Braves +131 L
Phillies +154 W
Indians -102 W
Padres +101 L
Orioles +122 W
Diamondbacks +128 L
Rockies +169 L
Rangers +190 L

Daily W-L:  4-12, -0.02208
Daily ROI:  -31.57%
Cumulative W-L:  131-178, -0.34187
Cumulative ROI:  -14.28%

Ending bankroll:  0.90813

Kelly Index Wagering Results 4/17

Today the calculator liked all dogs on a mostly chalk evening.  I was swept in NHL.  NBA playoffs start tomorrow.

4/17 starting bankroll:  0.96649

NY Islanders +127 L
Senators +122 L
Flames +136 L
SD Padres +105 W (POD)
White Sox +159 L
Brewers +110 L
Braves +135 W
Phillies +214 L
Orioles +103 L
Astros +105 L
Rangers +137 W
Rockies +239 L
Diamondbacks +138 W

Daily W-L:  4-9, -0.03628
Daily ROI:  -55.52%
Cumulative W-L:  127-166, -0.31979
Cumulative ROI:  -13.76%

Ending bankroll:  0.93021

Kelly Index Wagering Results 4/16

The calculator loved all the dogs in NHL and it paid off handsomely, splitting again.  My largest 3 plays all won, leaving me with a comfortable profit.

4/16 starting bankroll:  0.94797

Pit. Penguins +158 L
Red Wings +149 W
Wild +128 W
Jets +125 L
KC Royals -113 L (POD)
Brewers +127 L
Phillies +118 L
Marlins +103 L
Diamondbacks +149 W

Daily W-L:  3-6, +0.01852
Daily ROI:  +59.09%
Cumulative W-L:  123-157, -0.28351
Cumulative ROI:  -12.55%

Ending bankroll:  0.96649