I switched to PLO8 for the last week of the month, mostly because I could short stack and still get the VPP's needed to make my VIP level. Now I have some all-ins to gauge my "luck" this month.
There was an interesting thread on 2+2 this week about rake in LO8. One poster seems to think that you need 5 opponents in a hand to beat the uncapped 5% rake in low limit O8. It's something to consider, I really feel the rake & running bad killed me in equal parts there.
I'll probably play one more session this month, but here's all the data:
Still running bad, but no longer "lucky" (Sklansky bucks rise above showdown winnings).
Here's the all-ins, I'm losing most of my races:
Again here's a scatter graph, showing a majority of +EV hands:
From another view, the histogram:
This means I'm not just losing big pots and winning small ones. I'm playing +EV across all pot sizes.
I've been replaying some individual hands, and I haven't seen any earth shattering misplays. There have been one or two hands where I was drawing to a scoop multiple ways, yet I earned negative Sklansky on the hand. Maybe I'll post those hands later on.
6 comments:
I'm not so sure you can draw any conclusions over the short term. If nothing's changed over last year, then I think it's just the run you've had and you will return to "normal" returns over the course of time.
Ken,
You're right, to a degree. I have come back from -200 bb downswings in the past. But this year on Stars I don't have immediate rakeback, and that affects the bankroll.
Any player who loses that fast has to look for leaks in their game. Nobody plays perfect poker - not even for one session. You can always improve.
Plus, I always love an excuse to bust out the charts.
Hey- I like the carts too. Waht are those three outliers on the all hands played chart? Are those extremely big wins? I need help understanding that chart.
Each dot on the scatter graph represents a hand that went to showdown - this means I didn't fold and neither did one of my opponents.
The dots on the right half of the quadrant are +EV, which = good poker play. The dots on the left half = bad play.
The top half are hands I won, the bottom half are hands I lost. Bottom right means I played good and lost. Top left means I played poorly, yet won.
If the majority of dots are in the right half = I'm playing good poker.
Those few dots waaaay out are big pots I won playing pot limit, since betting is capped in limit.
Something seems to have chaged at about your 2,500th hand. You were playing fairly flat to positive for your 1st 2,500 hands, and then you can almost make a straight downward sloping line to hand 9,000. Then, at 9,000, something else happened? what happened there for that made your direction jump? The Sklansky bucks jumped too. Was that the tourneys you played in December? Then, you seemed to flatline again.
Around hand 2500 was the beginning of my losing streak. My Sklansky were still going up while my winnings were going down - means I'm playing "well" but not catching the cards needed to win.
Around 9k, I started playing pot limit O8 instead of limit. This makes the lines jump around like a heart beat, because you win and lose big pots.
My Sklansky trends upward the whole month, which implies I consistently played good poker.
The whole point of the chart is to determine if bad play contributed to losses. I have every hand in a database and can replay any winner or loser.
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