A new understanding of yourself will lead you to instigate a set of major changes. You can sense this. You may even feel a little afraid of what it implies. Don't be. What's altering now is necessary. It's the start of a great new phase of your life.
A little eerie, methinks.
I've been playing O8/PLO8 regularly all year with horrible results. I'm not winning, even though I started out the year as a winner.
The 2+2ers concur that if you're a consistent loser over 1k hands, you're a bad player and it's not just variance. Well, I've been losing now over 11k hands, which brings me to the following conclusions:
-If I am leaking, I have no idea what it is. I obviously can't see it objectively.
-PokerEV must be the biggest piece of shit software on the market, because it says I'm a good player, putting myself in +EV situations well over 75% of the time (when VPIP). This means I made the right decision 3 out of every 4 times over 12.5k hands this year.
-I can't get anybody to fold at the tables. This is a combination of the low stakes and being under-rolled at PLO8 (due to my losing streak).
-I'm also fighting uncapped 5% rake at the tables. My losses for the year are much less than what I've paid in rake. This means in a rake free game, I'm a winning player. With actual rakeback, I'd be much better off.
But the ultimate point - Yes, I'm going to say it... I'm a losing player. Period. I admit it wholeheartedly.
So I'm going to give up the grind of cash games. Whatever skill I've accrued in the last 5+ years is being overcome by other forces I just can't combat. Goodbye, any notion of supernova VIP.
I'm not going to give up poker. I've decided to play a very casual amount of tournaments. I have no expectation of running up big scores, but I'm certainly not dead money.
This is what "Action" Dan Harrington had to say about tournaments in a recent interview:
Tournaments are a different creature. The volatility in tournaments is out of sight. I don't think you can consider playing tournaments for a living. I think that is impossible.
Even if you are a world-class player, the expenses are too high. My expenses are about $180,000 a year for about 10 events a year, and I play a third of the events that my compatriots play. If you're going to play poker and focus on tournaments, you better be wealthy, and if you're wealthy, why are you playing poker tournaments? Sure, you see some names repeating as winners. They are truly great players. But the problem is, there are a lot of other truely great players you haven't seen at all. And it's not because they are playing badly. It's the variance. You need to be extremely lucky. I'm one of the more successful tournament players, and I feel like I do nothing but lose!
The reality in poker is that only one or two in every 100 players will make any real money at it.
(from cardplayer magazine Vol.20c/No. 24c December 5, 2007 Issue)
This guy is one of the best tourney players ever.
Fantasy hockey is supposed to start again up next week along with NASCAR. That should tide me over until baseball season starts. I DO have an expectation of winning there, based on my past performance.
I hate walking away from ambitious goals I set for myself. I hate being results oriented. But you cannot turn away from what stares at you in the face every day.
No comments:
Post a Comment