Burnout, Baby, Burnout

I've been playing poker only sporadically. I do participate in the bonus freeroll series every day, cashing in two events so far.

I finished 134 in the Blogger Donkerbowl of online poker, finishing ahead of most of the players I knew. Poker Babe Shirley finished 20th, she was among the chip leaders and I thought she was going to take it down. The eventual winner was on my right for about 90 minutes, he was not very good. He was actually short stacked most of the time I was there. He pissed off the table by continually talking Portuguese to his rail birds.

In the 4th hour, my QQ ran into AA, then my KQ ran into KK (the only player behind me) - no improvement and IGHN.

I play a little ring game action every day as well, but I haven't been able to muster up enough concentration to play a multi-hour, multi-table session.

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I've been messing with horse handicapping, and the results have been mixed. I have been crunching numbers using Quick Horse software, and have been able to predict race winners consistently at 25%. Whether that is a good percentage, I don't know.

Applying the handicapping to wagering is even more difficult. You have to find value in your picks. That may mean waiting for a race with decent odds on a winner, or playing more exotic wagers. I still have a lot to learn.

I saw the ESPN "E60" report on Dr. Bob, the expert handicapper. What I don't get is why Dr. Bob only 'caps football and basketball point spreads. Does his formula not work for baseball or hockey? (And no CFL, eh?) It also seems there is a lot of value in money line plays. Bottom line - if he is capping at 64% over three years, and he is considered the best, not many people are winning consistently.

(ETA: 2+2ers are saying that 64% is a ridiculously high number, that 57% would be amazing. Not sure I believe that, I did 63.8% ATS on football in 2006 - albiet not as many picks as Dr. Bob. Also, Dr. Bob did not do very well prior to 2004. Perhaps his methods were not perfected back in the day.)

Football Lock of the Week: CFL, Toronto @ Montreal (-1.5). Alouettes need to avoid the turnovers. NFL, Ravens (-3) @ Bills. Buffalo plays just good enough to lose. NCAA, Miami-Ohio (-5.5) @ Temple . Owls have won two in a row... but they're Temple. [2007 YTD 11-11-1.]