Monday, December 01, 2008

Meh.

Well, November is over and I failed in my quest for a winning month.

I've had 3 losing Sundays all football season, and all three came in November.

I cashed in 8 of 40 contests on Sunday. I was pretty much toast when Peyton Manning put up an awe-inspiring 0.8 fantasy points. I just stopped paying attention after that game ended.

For the month of November, I finished 238 for 557 (42.73%), with an ROI of -5.43%. Nothing too earth shattering.

While I have 3 losing Sundays out of my last 5, I'm way up for the football season. I kind of knew I wouldn't be able to keep that pace up all season long.

If I didn't have such a lousy beginning to the hockey season, I might have won enough to cover my football losses.

I have two observations about football as we head into the twilight of the season:

1) As the season progresses the rosters get an overall similarity between opponents. As people see the same games and review the same information & analysis, it's only common to see similar picks.

Which brings me to:

2) Is it a viable strategy to shake up your picks and vary your rosters across the board? I know others disagree with with me, but I say a resounding "NO".

Widely varying your rosters is a sure fire method to lose money over time. While you are probably guaranteed to win a few, you will never win them all. You are "playing not to lose" instead of "playing to win".

If you practice good bankroll management and can withstand a big losing day, then there is nothing wrong with taking your best guess to score points and playing that roster across the board.

If you follow my picks, you notice I never change my rosters much (if at all). I will tell you Kaiseroll13 does the same. If the top two overall players at FSL use this strategy, you would think there is something to it. Just food for thought.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

i'm winning at football

my strategy is similar to my winning poker strategy

avoid the rocks

unless it is for real small cash, i go out of my way to avoid the fsl players who clearly know what they are doing

i rarely post a roster first

rather, i poach the board, waiting for people i've never heard of to post in the h2h, and post a team vs them


working so far

spitball

Buffalo66 said...

Nice game selection. That should work pretty well for you.