Monday, February 09, 2009

Contest Hog 2: Electric Boogaloo

So it seems the contest hog issue is alive and well. More musings from the FSL message board.

Tippy, whose opinion I do respect, chimes in:

"My problem is that having to play hog all the time does three things:

1) it definitely keeps me from playing on those nights when I don't really have the time to get prepared, cause I know he will probably beat me. Therefore I can't play for fun. House loses my juice.

2) it keeps me from signing up first in any game because I don't want to play him, therefore it limits the number of games I can play. And since 'hog' has chased away all the other players too, there aren't any other games with people signed up. What a vicious circle. Everyone sitting out and never signing up first because they are sick of playing 'hog'. Game selection sucks. Players go elsewhere. House loses my juice.

3) Having two players put in $11, having the house take $2, leaves a 'bet 11 to win 9' proposition. Even if I am as good as 'Hog' we all still lose in the long run playing equal talent. Even Vegas is a 'bet 11 to win 10 proposition', and we know how hard it is to beat Vegas. Why would I ever want to sit in a game where the players are as good as I am and then have to pay juice on top of that? And why would I want to play the same damn guy every damn night in every damn game? Talk about Negative Expectation. I want the fish, just like everyone else does. Why would I want to sit at a table with Johnny Chan, Hellmuth, Negreanu, etc. every game for the rest of my life? FSL doesn't seem to realize that the shark is killing off all the fish, which in turn chases off other sharks and other fish, leaving a single king of the empty ocean. House loses my juice."

Now Tippy is talking about Kaiseroll13, they both play hoops on FSL. Kaiseroll13 must still be getting tons of action, because he's pulled away from me on the leader board.

Next up is "pull the goalie", who's a little more cryptic:

"I am new to daily fantasy sports and was thinking about the contest hog topic, then find it here. I am sick of playing against the same person in every head to head and the same couple people in any other contest. I don't spend all day on this and there is never a cheap game to join, I start one and the same player jumps in even minutes before the game starts. I like the site and the payouts are better than I've seen elsewhere, but it's no fun going up against the same top of the leader board player every time. You're losing another new player."

Since I have played this fellow in hockey, I assume he's talking about me. Does this mean I'm a contest hog? No one has officially called me out. Don't worry, I can take it.

Now that we've endured all of the whining in this post, let's get to some facts:

Fact #1: I'm down huge this month. I was just on a heavy six day losing streak. I've lost more in the last week than most of these players have ever SPENT on FSL.

I have no sympathy for anyone complaining about me when I'm losing.

Heck, I've lost hundreds in one day. I had three losing months in 2008, which were all substantial. However, I've always come back enough to post a healthy profit for the year.

Which brings me to:

Fact #2: Winning players will never stop playing. If you are winning substantially on FSL, why would you stop? Once you fill out a roster, you can play multiple games with that same roster. This way, you can spread out your risk over several contests with almost ZERO additional effort.

A winning player knows the better long term strategy is to play five $11 contests as opposed to one $54 contest.

From another point of view: If you are a winning HU NLHE poker player, and you see an uber fish sitting at a table, do you let someone else play him, just because you're a nice guy? Hell, no. They wouldn't do the same for you. You're there to make some money, right?

(I actually have left most of the $3.40 and $5.50 HU games to other players in FSL hockey. And LOLZ at anyone crying over a $3.40 game.)

The bottom line: Winning players want to play as much as possible, and most will take on all challengers (within their bankroll).

Fact #3: Anyone who plays for fun will lose. It's inevitable. It's just a matter of time.

First off, If you are really playing for fun, why aren't you playing a free game somewhere? While FSL doesn't offer play money games, there have to be some out there somewhere.

Secondly, anyone that "doesn't have the time" to put into picking a good team will lose. That should be self-explanatory.

Finally, If you do play on FSL, stick to the $1 games and you'll do OK. There's no rake and if you do lose, you'll lose slowly.

FSL also offers "beginner" games from time to time. I NEVER play those.

Fact #4: There will always - ALWAYS - be a contest hog. If both Kaiseroll13 and myself stopped playing on FSL today, it would just be a matter of time before another player became the newest contest hog. I would even argue that there are other players who are contest hogs in football or baseball, they just don't play out of season.

I've always been honest and forthright about my play and my results. I've tried to be respectful to others in the community.

I've even shared some of my insights and strategies publicly. It shows - the competition is tougher than it has been in the past.

I don't think my play will kill FSL, but just know I will always play where there is action.

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