Wednesday, April 08, 2009

A Variance Dilemma

I have not started off the month very well. The first two days of the baseball season are in the books and I have yet to find a pitching win.

CC Sabathia scored -12 on FSL for me. That is the worst score ANY baseball player has ever put up on any of my rosters. Ever.

Just as I suspected, pitching still reigns supreme in baseball contests. That extra 8 or 10 points for a win is so crucial. While a solo HR is also +8, the pitcher has the potential to put up so many more points than a batter.

Draftbug has been going about the same, turning in mild losses over the last 2 days. I did win 5 of 6 HU last night thanks to a Huston Street save. The RP spot makes the game more interesting.

Snapdraft is really my sore spot right now. I've had 15 straight losing sessions and it's been a month since my last winning night. My bankroll went from 3x my inital deposit to less than 50%. In other words, I went from 100 buy-ins to 300 buy-ins to 45 buy-ins... all in under 90 days.

There are two issues here. The first is the contests - they are winner take all. Every one. I have tons of 2nd place finishes, but they pay squadoosh. Secondly, the rake is higher than the other fantasy sites. This slowly eats more bankroll as you lose.

Now, I don't think I am a bad fantasy player. While I lost on snapdraft, I won on FSL playing over the same time period. But there is no question the flatter payout structure helped me turn a profit.

I'm at the point with snapdraft where I may try a "double up". I might let my bankroll ride on a single contest. If I bust out, I probably won't reload. If I win, maybe it will put me on the comeback trail. We shall see.


Blinders said...

I think it is just the snapdraft rake catching up with you. The winner take all adds to the variance, but you must play tons of contests over there, and be getting closer to the long-run.

Think in terms of rake independent ROI. Basically what would your ROI be without rake. If it is 10% or higher, you can beat FSL. You need 20%+ rake independent ROI to beat snapdraft (assuming equal toughness). Is your rake independent ROI north of 20%? If not you simply can't beat SnapDraft's rake.

I said when they launched that the rake was pretty much unbeatable, and I think we are seeing some evidence of that now.

Blinders said...

One more thing. The fact the Fantasy Sports Live has overlays and no rake leagues helps you out as well. A few nice overlays can really help out with your ROI. You won't find any of that at SnapDraft.

Buffalo66 said...

I said all along that you would need a win rate of 37.50% to beat snapdraft. I played 3-4-5 man contests.

First month was 45.85% winner with an ROI of +23.62%. Straight up against the rake.

2nd month was only 21.21% winners, roi -48.11%. Nobody can turn a profit with 21% winners.

Also, snapdraft nosebleed HU are very comparable to FSL in rake. A little higher, but close. If no one can beat that rake, then they cannot beat FSL rake either.

Buffalo66 said...

Overlays have zero correlation to ROI.

I win the same prize whether 1 or 9 players join. My cost to enter is exactly the same.

I'm stoked that FSL is ramping up the multis, that is where the real value is right now.