Saturday, December 08, 2012

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I'm back from Las Vegas. I had a much needed vacation, along with a chance to test out my index wagering methodology. I finished 96-76-5 (55.8%)for a profit of 35.3 units. Not outstanding, but I would take that every week.

I also had a lot of time to think on my trip. I've discussed betting with my runners and I've come up with a pretty good mantra to help keep my head right while placing wagers. Just remind yourself of the three phrases before each day of action:

1. Don't be greedy. I saw so many players at the book throw down 4-8 team parlays. I'm not against parlays, but I'm a straight bettor by choice. I wager within my limits and my bets are spread out so that one wager lost will not make or break me. Sometime a boring moneyline bet at -300 is the easiest money of the day.

2. Don't be desperate. If you find yourself in the hole or outside of your comfort zone, take a time out. If you get desperate, you might make poor betting choices (such as taking risks on long shots that are -EV). I heard one bettor in the book say, "I'm short on the rent." From a psychological perspective, you do not bet to make the rent - you pay the rent out of your bankroll (or life roll). In other words, keep your life choices and your betting choices separate.

3. Don't be scared. As in poker, scared money rarely wins over time. You have to have confidence in your wagering plan and stick to it. If your model has Team X as an outright winner, you should bet them even if they are +380 on the board. You can't be afraid to bet big on a game you really like, but you have to balance that with staying within your limits/system.

I just tell myself these three things every day and it helps get me ready for the sports book. I hope it will help you too.

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I'm not totally clear on Index wagering, but isn't it basically betting on margin of victory? I've only seen this for limited games as prop bets at a few vegas books.

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