Excuse Me Sir, But I Don't Swing That Way*

(*And other things I might say in an airport bathroom.)

It's difficult dealing with the swings in poker. Split-pot poker is especially deceptive in that regard. You're quartering, getting quartered, you split a bunch - no big deal. But you lose a bunch of big pots in a row, and you start thinking, "zomg, wha happen?"

Downswings are inevitable in poker, it is the nature of the game. Recognizing the downswings, and checking "under the hood" during those swings are vital to keeping your game from leaking too many chips.

I hit a downswing this past week, but checking my stats it appears I was more unlucky than anything else. Here come the charts:



Notice around 25k hands I lost a bunch, but my Sklansky bucks still went up. During that session, I lost every big pot where I was a favorite (or +EV). Losing a bunch can shake your confidence, but checking the histories can confirm or deny if you are leaking.

My last 10k hands on Full Tilt:



I'm proud of the fact that even though I gave about 200BB back during this downswing, I never went into negative territory (for this range OR the year). It does suck to run bad, but the confidence in my play and the softness of the games will keep me there.

I also had a losing week picking football - Thanks, Jason Elam! Way to miss 2 gimmes. Let's do better this week:

Football Lock of the Week: NCAA, Virginia @ North Carolina (-3). The Cavaliers had some problems with Duke. NFL, Vikings (-3) @ Lions. Minnesota has quietly put together a contender. CFL, Montreal (-1) @ Edmonton. Loss of Calvillo won't slow down the Alouettes. [2007 YTD 5-3.]