Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Draftbug Millionaire = Impossible

Someone recently clued me into Draftbug's newest blog, Draftbug Millionaire.

This is supposed to be the fantasy sports version of a bankroll challenge. The goal here is to turn a $70 bankroll into $25,000 in one calendar year. What is not clear is whether the $25,000 is ACTUAL bankroll or $25,000 in contest winnings?

It really doesn't matter. It cannot be done.

You would have to leverage your entire bankroll daily for 12 months. I have played daily games for three years, across all sports. I have averaged 2 winning months to each losing month. I have a lifetime ROI of +5%, straight up against the rake, not including bonuses or rewards.

I have earned $1000 in one day - PROFIT, not winnings - but I have also lost $400+ in one night. If you play to sweep (no roster variation), you will win/lose big. If you hedge (roster variation), you will break even or lose slowly.

Even if you're playing rake free, any normal variance could wipe out your bankroll in less than a week. One starting pitcher getting injured in the 2nd inning could cut your bankroll immensely.

Regardless of injuries or ejections, you will also experience hot and cold streaks. I once won 63 consecutive contests without a loss. I also went 69 consecutive contests without a cash.

Now, I like a lot of what Draftbug is doing. They offer great games and I hope to send a lot of my play to their site. But this promotion is destined to fail, unless they change the parameters somehow.

Heed my words, fantasy players. Exercise good bankroll management. I recommend at least a 20 buy-in rule, and perhaps 100 buy-ins, if you're a bankroll nit.


Alex said...

In fairness, if your read everything I wrote about it, I left the door open to both longer duration and putting additional money in over time. This isn't a strict bankroll challenge. I was mostly discussing what it would take to grow the bankroll that fast, and acknowleged that the assumptions you'd need to make are probably not achievable.

Buffalo66 said...

I only know a handful of players good enough to beat the rake year around. Of those, I'm not sure any could be +20% ROI winners overall, myself included.

I can see three scenarios in which the goal could be achieved:

1) starting bankroll $1k, 12-18 months.
2) staring bankroll $70, 3-4 years.
3) some HUGE value added contest (like $1k added to prize pool) which would give the bankroll the necessary boost.