Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Oh, Good Grief.
Fantasy baseball has not been very good to me this year. I though I was off the schneid but variance has gotten the better of me.
I have cashed in only 3 of my last 46 contests and have decimated most of my bankroll. This seems to happen once a year, usually during baseball season. Coincidence?
The analysis of my losing streak is quite simple. I didn't have any pitching. Here's a list of my pitching (with results) so far this year:
Sabathia NYY -12: 8 for 38, ROI -30.80%.
Dempster CHC +10: 4 for 22, ROI -22.68%.
Wang NYY -15: 1 for 19, ROI -94.71%.
Danks CWS +17: 9 for 14, ROI +90.84%.
Harden CHC +21: 12 for 19, ROI +93.12%.
Peavy SDP +30: 6 for 16, ROI -10.27%.
Jurrjens ATL +9: 1 for 15, ROI -90.10%.
Pelfrey NYM -2: 2 for 15, ROI -85.24%.
Dice-K BOS -14: 0 for 16, ROI -100%.
No pitching = no wins. I didn't even sniff a winning day unless I was +17 or higher.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this gem: 44% of the time, I would have scored better if I did not have a pitcher on my roster.
The point here is that you need a good pitching performance to win. It sucks that one player counts for so much of the score.
Just to show you how much pitching matters, I averaged the scores from each winning roster in every 10 player multi from the last week.
Over 35 contests, the winning roster had an average pitching score of +24.2 and an average total score of +72.6. This neatly worked out to an average 33.3%. Pitching counts for one third.
I realize this is a small sample size, but consider this - those 10 player events had the highest caps, which means users could afford the best position players. Move down to lower caps and pitching counts EVEN MORE.
So I'm not sure how I'm going to proceed from here. I'll probably carry on in some capacity. However, I'll need a heater to get back to playing the same volume in the future.
I do have one painful reminder that I'm a long term winner at this. I just paid my taxes on my 2008 fantasy winnings.