Monday, June 29, 2009

Hedging = The Shortstacking Of Fantasy Sports

It's been a good month, my best since December. I'm at a +20% ROI with two days left in June.

In the past, I've discussed whether varying your rosters is a good idea. IMO, your best guess to score points should be the same throughout all contests (of the same cap). After all, why would you want to stray away from your best projections?

I learned quickly that daily fantasy baseball is a completely different animal. It is a high variance game, mostly because one player (pitcher) usually accounts for a big chunk of your total score. (33-60% of your score on average, depending on the site you like best.)

Previously, the problem with hedging was diminishing returns. Since most of the games were heads-up (HU), you could not win a full buy-in for every entry fee. Therefore, to maximize profits, you take an all or nothing approach: Put up your best guess across the board.

Now there is a new variable added to the mix - the proliferation of multi-player contests. It seems this year I can enter 10-20 multis on a daily basis, without fail.

All of these multis allow me the opportunity to win multiple buy-ins on each contest. Therefore, I can vary my pitchers throughout my contests and still have a profitable night. (A good example of this was Sunday, where I only cashed in 6 of 17 contests, but won enough cash to sport a ROI around +13%.)

I don't frown on hedging. It's not a pariah like shortstacking is in poker. I just think it's a strategy that can only be successfully used in certain situations.

For today's Trailer Park Monday, here's Randy evicting J-ROC, who's none too happy:

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