Monday, July 06, 2009

OT: Wall St. Electronic Trading = Rakeback Bots?

Sorry I missed the TPM. Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend.

I'm off to a scorching start in July, winning 5 of my first 6 days for a cumulative ROI of +73.92%. (I realize that is unsustainable, but I'll take it!)

Going off topic today, here's an interesting Bloomberg piece on the high volume electronic traders:

Did I hear that right? High volume traders are mainly seeking "liquidity rebates"? Do traders get rakeback?

Here's a great clip from the new documentary by Michael Covel - Broke: The New American Dream . Some discussion about poker and good bets (+EV) versus bad bets (-EV)

Two points:

1) The Lederer comment applies to fantasy games. You don't have to win the majority of contests to be profitable.

2) The good bet/bad bet discussion also directly applies to fantasy. If your "best guess" roster is a good bet, you want to place that bet against as many different opponents as possible.

Over the "long run" you will come out ahead, but there will be days where your best guess will yield poor results. Just like my recent 0 for 19 performance.

(The NLHE poker example of this is going all in HU pre-flop with Aces. You expect to win a majority of the time, but you will lose a fair share too.)

Finally, here's a interesting documentary on the high risk of inflation we are facing. In part one, there is a hilarious exchange between Maria Bartiromo and Ben Bernanke back in 2006 (at 6:15 of the video):

Basically, I will not believe anything Bernanke says ever again.

I admit I'm a little worried about inflation right now. I went grocery shopping today, and noticed that several of my staple items were 25%-33% higher than my last trip about 10 days ago.

It might only take one minor international incident (or another hurricane) to spike oil prices and create spiraling prices of most goods. Let's hope not.

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