Now that I have adequate time to play daily fantasy contests, I also have the time to update my records.
Some interesting patterns have developed over my fantasy "career".
The obvious sore spot in my history is April. The WHOLE month of April. Every year.
Look at these awesome results:
April-08 FSL: 323 for 593 (54.47%), ROI -3.40%.
April-09 FSL: 137 for 397 (34.51%), ROI -18.15%.
April-09 Snapdraft: 7 for 34 (20.59%), ROI -55.71%.
April-10 FSL: 83 for 218 (38.97%), ROI -13.32%.
April-10 Fan Duel: 37 for 136 (27.21%), ROI -37.95%.
Now these stats include all sports, but at least 80% of it is baseball. Maybe 90%.
Jumping to conclusions, I think that my projections just might be HORRIBLE at predicting the 1st month of the baseball season. Either that, or I just run bad for 3 straight years.
Even with that rotten month of April, I've managed to be profitable in all sports for every calender year so far.
Emphasis on the "so far".
I've had a tough time keeping my head above water this year. I had a 3 month losing streak on both FSL and Fan Duel. My up to the minute stats for this year:
FSL-10: 339 for 751 (45.14%), ROI -0.24%.
FD-10: 462 for 897 (51.51%), ROI -7.72%.
You can see that I'm well within the range of what each site charges for rake (10%).
Also, my win rate will likely always be lower on FSL because I play all my multis there.
But I'm worried that I may have dug myself too large a hole to turn this year profitable on BOTH sites. (Overall, I'm likely to run hotter on one site, probably turning a bottom line profit by 12/31.)
Now, I've always made my biggest profits in the fall, where my Oct-Nov wheelhouse - Hockey, NASCAR, football - all run together.
I'm hoping a great 2nd half run in baseball & NASCAR will happen. I'm finding football to be tougher overall, especially because of the great free info that has exploded into the laps of the casual players.
Fantasy hockey and I will be pals for a long, long time.
So here's to hoping for the best, surviving the worst and keeping my profits alive for 2010.