Condia: Playing Without A Profit Motive?

This month the DFS community was all abuzz with the high volume play of Condia, who seems to be a football specialist.

By taking up so many games in the lobby, some of the bigger sites instituted a "Condia rule", which limits the amount of entries at buy ins below $50 or so.

Rotogrinders even has Condia at the top of their rankings. Curiously though, Condia did not score very well in week 2 or week 3, so I question whether he is even profitable at this point.

It also shows that the RG rankings are a complete sham. If a player places 4 top ten scores in a large field, only his top cash is counted. However, Condia could be losing big, but is still ranked #1 solely on his heads up volume. There is ZERO skill involved in that.

But the more interesting point is Condia's motive to play such a high volume. It appears that his bankroll actually surpasses what he might win in the future. In other words, there is a diminishing returns scenario facing Condia. Against the rake, it's unlikely he gets profitable once he has a bad week (which he's already experienced).

So why does he continue to play a large volume? It seems that he doesn't need the money. It seems he doesn't need to get even. It seems he doesn't want the attention, rarely chatting or corresponding with other players.

So I'm stumped at Condia's true motive for playing daily fantasy. He is an enigma wrapped in a riddle dipped in white chocolate.

As for me, I had a very small losing week in NFL, my first this season. I usually average 4 losing weeks each NFL season, so this is not uncommon. Hockey starts up next week and that will keep me very busy for the rest of the year.

Some Weeks Are Better Than Others

Sometimes I think life is a series of trade-offs. It's not a box of chocolates. You know what you're gonna get. You just don't know when (or how much).

Health wise, I've felt pretty crappy lately. I've really slowed down in the past year or so. While I can still get out and ride, I have to let some other things go. Perfect example: Passing up an invitation to a laser tag birthday party.

Fantasy wise, It was a shining week. I concentrated on NFL and it paid off handsomely. While I didn't win any tournaments, I placed 2nd in two, and if I'm lucky enough to hold those spots I'll post a beautiful +200% ROI for the week.

So would I trade my fantasy winnings for feeling better? I guess when I'm at my most painful I'd probably say yes.

But If I can keep making it to next week, there's always a possibility that week will be even better.

My Evil Twin Is Badder Than Yours (Also Probably In Prison)

"Sometimes you might be walking around lucky and not even know it." -Jay Trotter, in the film Let It Ride

I actually WON this weekend by taking a bad beat. I didn't lose $120 on the $420 I planned on wagering in Canada.

That's because Canada doesn't want me anymore. I was refused entry and politely asked never to return.

I've always had a tricky time with my trips to the great white north. I had Blue Jays tickets for a couple years (post 9/11) and always seemed to get detained for some reason. I just summed it up to the fact I was usually traveling solo, and thus more likely fitting some profile.

What I didn't realize until this past weekend is I fit the perfect profile of a really bad dude.

I have the bad luck of having a very common name. I have the REALLY bad luck of having the same name and birth date of a person that has committed multiple felonies.

I want to be very clear here - that person is not me.

So sitting in immigration on Saturday, waiting for this mistaken identity to sort itself out, I get asked, "Have you ever been arrested?"

(Sigh.) "Yes, I have. I was arrested about 15 years ago on a traffic stop. Although I have never been convicted of a crime."

Another 20 minutes pass. I get summoned to the counter:

"The good news John is you're not the John we originally thought you were. The bad news is your FBI file shows you convicted of a crime. Therefore you are barred from entering Canada for life, pending a criminal rehabilitation."

I was told if I ever tried to enter Canada again I would be arrested. Then I was escorted back the the US entry point.

The rest of my day I walked around dumbfounded. There is an FBI file on me. It says I was convicted of a crime, when I was not. And the the Canadian government also considers me a criminal.

Now I readily admit to being arrested when I was younger. Thanks to circumstances and a great lawyer I got off with a moving violation. But I can honestly say under penalty of perjury that I have never been convicted of a crime.

The funny part is all of this happened because I went there to bet on football LEGALLY. If I use an online book or a local bookie, I'm breaking the law.

I guess if I turn my back toward Canada, that means I'm facing in the direction of Las Vegas.

Football Picks (Now Mythical)

Due to my now nebulous immigration status, I wasn't able to get my picks in today. but since I put all of the time in on these, I'll share the wealth. Let's see if I win any imaginary Canadian Sklansky bucks.

NCAA:
Stanford -21.5 / Nevada +27.5 $30 to pay $90
Alabama o42 / Virginia u52.5 $30 to pay $99.90
FAU o49 / Virginia u52.5 $30 to pay $94.50
FAU o49 /Tennessee o56 $30 to pay $94.50
Alabama o42/ Auburn o57.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Ohio St. o52.5 / Tennessee o56 $30 to pay $99.90
Nebraska o51 / Auburn o57.5 $30 to pay $97.13
Ohio St. o52.5 / TCU o49.5 $30 to pay $97.13
TCU o49.5 / Nebraska o51 $30 to pay $91.88

NFL:
Colts +9 / Chargers -8.5 $30 to pay $90
Falcons o40.5 / Patriots u45.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Falcons o40.5 / Giants o38 $30 to pay $102.68
Giants o38 / Raiders u40.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Patriots u45.5 / Raiders u40.5 $30 to pay $102.68

Total wagered $420

I'm Doing What I Was Born To Do

I have to admit, I've had a significant identity crisis since my father passed away and I returned to Buffalo.

What the hell am I? When people ask me, "What do you do?", I always have a pause before my answer.

I work for myself. I'm an entrepreneur. I run a web site. I do Internet marketing. But never have I publicly said, "I'm a professional gambler."

Now I'm just beginning to realize that's exactly what I've become.

Since I was a small child I've been drawn to games - especially games involving uncertainty. Roll the dice in Risk. Toss dimes or rings at the state fair. Flip for your favorite baseball card.

I've also been drawn to both sports and math. I spent much more time looking at the backs of those cards, memorizing player stats. I spent hours alone playing stat driven sports games, APBA, Stratomatic and many more, including my all time favorites: SI superstar baseball and Mattel talking football. I'm quite sure I'd still be playing those today if I owned them.

As a teenager I developed a poker habit, playing a roving home game with many of my high school friends. When we first got cable TV I was only 15, but all of a sudden live sports was unleashed in my household every night. I also started computing, playing almost any sports game on the Commodore 64. I even found time to play a few fantasy leagues.

All of this was living for me, but it was also training. I learned strategy, decision making, risk and reward.

Fast forward 15 years. After a business degree, a counseling degree and several boring corporate jobs, I discovered online poker (and sports betting). While a nebulous legality surrounded the entire world of Internet commerce, I knew this was the future of gaming.

Out of the ashes of online poker, the phoenix of daily fantasy sports was born. I caught this wave right at the beginning and experienced consistent success. Only my poor bankroll and my family issues kept me from taking on anyone bigger than myself.

So now we are knocking on 2012 and I'm taking a personal assessment. I can say with full honesty:

-I am a lifetime winner at online poker against the rake, without rakeback or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime winner at sports betting, without rebates or rewards.
-I am a lifetime winner at daily fantasy sports (all sports), without rakeback or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime winner at horse betting, without rebates or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime LOSER at slots, down $220, two sessions over a ten year period. I'll never play slots again.
-I am a successful marketer for legal Internet gaming sites.
-I successfully stake fantasy players, all of my horses have turned profit every year so far.
-I've created a successful projection model that continues to evolve, it has helped make money in multiple gaming areas.

Yet given all of these factors, I'm still NOT the house. I'm the action maker, not the action taker.

I guess this means I'm a gambler. Although I don't think what I do is any different than any individual investor.

I'm just doing what I've always tried to do: Get my money in with the best of it.