Monday, March 23, 2015

New For 2015: A Kelly Index Wagering Experiment

Welcome to 2015.

I haven't posted in quite some time, mostly because I almost died in October. I started out with the flu and ended up in intensive care, followed by some recuperation time. I'll spare the details but I am alive and dealing with new diseases and medications. Still a grumpy(er) old man.

I had plans and expectations for 2014 that were dashed by my ordeal. I've been able to continue handicapping and even dabbled in some DFS during the earlier parts of this NHL season.

In the new year I've been able to sharpen my wagering skills as I've gotten physically stronger. It's been a brutal winter in Buffalo and I haven't had enough energy on a lot of days to attack new projects. In truthfulness this had left me a little depressed.

I'm disappointed that the content I originally wanted to create last year never saw the light of day. I'm also saddened that most of the content I've put out falls on deaf ears. I've always approached my videos and blogs in a "teach a man to fish" manner. You should know the how & why behind my play, not just the pick itself.

I've always released my picks and information content free of any charge or sign-ups. I always believed that karma was going to somehow reward me for what I contributed to the universe. Perhaps that true reward was my life being spared.

I'm at a point today where this content guy has to put down the teaching tools and start producing results for myself. I have grinded out profits across all sports, although with a lot of variance and wavering methodology. Recently I have been using win% modeling to determine positive kelly wagers. However, my bet sizing and frequency hasn't been consistent, as I've tried to single out attractive plays (based on my opinion).

I'm going to change this up with a betting experiment.

I'm not going to pass up any positive kelly wagers any longer. For this project I'll be betting under the following parameters:

-Starting bankroll is one bitcoin (1.000).
-All bets will be moneyline ONLY, no spreads, totals, parlays or derivatives.
-I'll be using a 10% fractional kelly criterion.
-Wagers will be in NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, NFL, NCAAF to start.

In other words I'll use my win% models and a kelly calculator to determine a kelly% for each game. For example, if the Red Sox ML has a kelly% of 6.35%, I would bet 10% of that, which equals 0.635% of my dedicated bankroll.

I will wager every side that has a positive kelly%, so I won't be missing out on any wagers with expected value. What's different is that I'll be using fractional kelly for bet sizing, which will make for more aggresive bankroll growth.

My volume of wagering will increase exponentially. However, my risk of ruin should remain quite low with a 10% fractional kelly. It will be interesting to see how swingy things will be, especially since the books seem to give more value to the dogs. This will mean a lower winning percentage but higher rewards on wins.

If I can grow the bankroll enough I may dedicate more resources to this project and also raise my fractional kelly for more aggression.

Wish me luck and stay tuned for updates.

No comments: