Monday, February 23, 2009

I've Always Kinda Been Into The Group Thing.... (Don't Judge Me.)

With zero fantasy contests on the agenda today, it's time to catch up on things.

February has been a horrendous month on FSL. However, I've seemed to stop the bleeding. There's no chance of a winning month, but with a solid final week I can avoid my worst monthly loss ($$$ wise).

I had a winning NASCAR weekend, finishing first in both $11 multis. Every other entry in those contests had Allmendinger. Keep picking him - there's no way Petty can afford to fund 4 or 5 teams. And if they keep running him, their other teams will suffer. Kahne is the only member of that squad worth picking.

Don't get me wrong, AJ is a decent driver in a tough situation. But there are much better fantasy choices.

Overall, it was a good weekend. Let's just say I'm glad there's no more restrictor plate racing for awhile.

Over on Snapdraft, It's been a winning month. Talk about variance - it's feast or famine almost every night. I've managed to secure a top spot on the leader board this month. Whether I finish #1 will depend on how much hockey they run. There are only contests on nights with 7+ games on the schedule.

I firmly believe the (Snapdraft) rake is beatable. While I won't get into the reasons why, their superior traffic allows me to test out some of my mad scientist fantasy theories.


And I feel more of my success has come from my strategies (as opposed to my mad roster pickin' skillz).

This month is shaping up to be about +30% ROI on Snapdraft and -30% ROI on FSL. So why am I winning on one site and losing on another, basically picking the same players?

One obvious reason is the game scoring is different. It's been a LOLfest on FSL, with a bunch of dogs putting up huge totals. (Adam Foote FTW? More like Adam Foote WTF!) My good scores have been beaten by redonkulous scores. It happens.

Another reason is that the caliber of opponent on FSL is superior. Even though Kaiseroll13 doesn't play fantasy hockey, there are several other players who have over a years experience with the game and playing them heads-up is becoming less of a +EV proposition.

Also, the increased availability of NHL player info has made my opponents much better than last year.

Conversely, on Snapdraft the traffic is so much higher, I'm certain to run into a few donks every night. While I have had an "oh-fer" night (a big one!), it doesn't happen very often.

OK, let's try to tie this all together.

Simply put, I think it's in my best interest to play only multi-player fantasy games from now on. My skills are obviously better than the average player, so I expect there to be some dead money in ANY multi contest.

Since the FSL HU are barely +EV and the Snapdraft HU are raked too much, it seems the HU games are out of the rotation for now.

I think this is the most important statement of this rambling mess:

IMO, FSL hasn't increased their overall traffic very much over the past 20 months. I feel this is because they don't offer enough multis. Think about it - it seems almost all of the 10 player $1 multis fill up. Fast.

The $1 (no rake) contests are genius. Better than a freeroll. Players feel they are getting value for their money and the site is making money off their deposits.

But FSL limits their multis, mostly because they are afraid of creating overlays. I understand this. Offering HU games are no risk to the site. But offering more $1 multis creates very limited overlay potential.

The more multis FSL offers, the less intimidated the new players will be with the "hogs". This will increase traffic and that eventually will increase rake for the site. I hope they at least experiment with the offerings.

So I'm sticking to multis in all sports for now. This means my volume and my win rates will go down. Hopefully my ROI will go up.

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