Monday, August 03, 2009

I Still Believe

Thanks to my family coming to visit, I missed the last three days of July and ended up with a winning month. A minuscule +0.64% ROI. It's still a win!

July was a classic example of a roller coaster month. The first two weeks were gangbusters, leaving me well above +30%. However, I ended on a huge losing streak, (including four -100% days) to end up the month virtually break even.

While I have a much better grasp of FSL baseball than I did in March, it is still the highest variance game they offer, IMO.

What makes my variance even more pronounced is my style of play. I still believe that your one "best guess" is the key to victory. I don't hedge very much - usually only if there is no clear cut pitching favorite. Even then, my hitters are usually the same across the board.

This all or nothing, feast or famine approach results in some wild swings. You have to be able to handle these swings both emotionally and financially. I'm getting much better at it.

If you cannot win enough buy-ins to cover your hedging, than you are going to slowly leak money over time. You are playing "not to lose" instead of playing to win.

I see a lot of regulars leaking this way.

I will admit that there are moments of serendipity where users pick wildly different rosters and they both cash. This strategy is unlikely to produce that result often enough (and perhaps best used only in large multi contests).

So I'm sticking with my proven strategy. (It has given me three winning years plus a winning 2009 so far.) While I recently experienced a rough patch, I expect a big winner will come visit me again soon.

Here's Bubbles rapping freestyle:

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