Prepare yourself for a long post. You have been forewarned.
I'm feeling better, although still with some lingering effects of my cold. I've also managed to turn an overall profit in March, although there's still another week of NASCAR to deal with.
What has me writing this morning is my experience last night in Fan Duel chat. There have been several "experts" spamming their sites over there. When I finally mentioned I run Daily Fantasy Projections, it got very chippy.
Without rehashing the whole chat, my nemesis-slash-frenemy Kaiseroll13 claims my entire site is based upon one single source of data. While it is true that the "source that shall not be named" is involved in my projections, it is NOT the only source of data used in my analysis.
His ultimate claim is that I'm "ripping people off" by excessively charging for something that he feels others can get somewhere else for less. This gets an LOL, mostly because if it were true, we're talking dollar menu riches, even over the long run.
And this does not take into account the strategy content I provide for my subscribers, which includes private 1-on-1 support.
We all project performance in our own ways and while we may use similar reference materials, it doesn't mean we will get the same results. However, in fantasy hoops with it's simplistic scoring, I can see where Kaiser draws his conclusion.
I'm proud of Daily Fantasy Projections and I stand behind my work. I use these projections EVERY DAY and have long term winning results to show for it, across ALL sports I project. (There are even additional sports I project that I don't sell or share with anyone.)
Kaiser's other beef is that I don't play anything over $5. This is also not true. I have played hoops regularly up to $25 (my worst sport) and have played hockey up to $107 this season. While I am a big believer in spreading risk I try to play anyone that will give me regular action or is a +EV opponent.
There are also a lot of peeps trying to avoid me too.
So once again, we come to this:
To prove that my projections are worthy and I'm not afraid to play bigger stakes, I'm offering up an open challenge I call the "Buffalo66 Challenge".
I'm looking for someone to challenge me to 50 heads-up fantasy contests consisting of:
(10) baseball contests
(10) football contests
(10) basketball contests
(10) hockey contests
(10) NASCAR contests
I'll play any stakes up to $213 PER CONTEST. Buy-in must be the same for all 50 contests.
The challenge will run for 25 dates, with 2 contests categories on each date. I want to stress the importance of having to project two different sports on the same day.
I will play either cap or autodraft contests, but will not play a "no cap" contest. I will hold a draft with my opponent where we will alternate picking dates/categories/sites to hold the contests.
Almost all of the details are negotiable, except I must insist that there are an equal number of contests among all five sports.
I have offered this challenge up publicly TWICE before and have received no takers.
I offered up a multi-sport challenge to Kaiseroll13 last night and he refused. To paraphrase our chat:
His view: He will crush me in baseball, hoops, football. I would win in hockey and NASCAR.
My view of his view: Disregarding variance, he should be favored 30-20, according to his analysis. This is an instacall, easy money for the favorite.
My view: I would win in hockey and NASCAR. He would win in hoops. Football we are even. I think he is slightly better in baseball, but since it is the highest variance game, it could go either way. I'm either a slight favorite or it's an even race.
Since Kaiser is not interested, I'd love to find an opponent willing to take me on. I don't know of ANY other players that play real money every day above $5 in all five sports - not even the "fantasy experts". (If you do, please let me know so I can give you props.)
If anyone is interested in the challenge, please comment or contact me through either site. We can work out the details anytime, anywhere.
Until then I'll just keep plugging away at my small, consistent gains I've made every year since I started this mess.