I'm slowly getting back into fantasy games this week. The results have been pretty good for my meager stakes.
I got asked several variations of the same question yesterday, amongst other questions.
Simply put, I don't retract ANYTHING I've posted this week. I just felt bad about the "hater" tone of my post. That's what I regret. I stand behind my words, even though they were poorly chosen.
And for the record, no one has asked/requested me to post anything or retract anything.
Now, onto the math lesson for today.
Question: How does one player win (earn) $3600 in prizes on Fan Duel in one week? This assumes the player does not play autodraft or multi-player contests.
In the cleanest, quickest example, he plays three $100 contests every day of the week for a total of 21 contests.
He wins 20 of those 21 contests for $180 each. 20 x $180 = $3600.
Winning 20 of 21 = win rate of 95.2%. (Unrealistic and unsustainable, even for a week. But this is just a hypothetical example.)
Assuming the player didn't play just the $100 games, he would still need the 95.2% win rate if he played just $300 in entry fees every day.
Now let's look at the same problem from an accurate win rate perspective.
IMO the top 5% of daily fantasy player have a lifetime HU win rate over 60%. Over a 4 year sample size, very few players would make the cut.
Plugging in the 60% win rate to our beginning example, the player now needs 33.33 $100 entries to win 20 prizes of $180.
He now needs $3333 in entry fees to win $3600, for a profit of $267. For the week.
Remember, this scenario also assumes there is enough TRAFFIC on Fan Duel for the player to get all of his contests entries in one week.
I'm not speculating anything here, just pointing out the math. It's a hypothetical example.
Anything could happen in a week, I guess.