Monday, August 22, 2011

The Counter Intuitive Nature Of Handicapping Superfectas

There are many great thoroughbred handicappers out there. Heck, I don't even claim to be a good handicapper.

There is also obvious value in picking winners. By this I mean the horse that finishes 1st in a race. With many carryovers on horizontal bets, there is added value in capping the pick 4-5-6 type wagers.

However, I'm in my own little 10 cent superfecta world. Playing this vertical wager has made me money, but it takes a completely different view to be successful.

I find the average field in races I bet is 8 selections. If I'm looking to cash a superfecta, I'm not looking to pick a winner, but instead picking the top half of the field.

I'll admit my methods are rudimentary. I rank the horses on several metrics, and the top four become my choices. Sometimes it's easier to eliminate the "also rans" than it is to make that 4th selection.

I also like to pick my horses without influence of the morning line or the betting pool. If public money goes against my choices, that's OK - it will pay that much sweeter if it comes in.

Now just because you picked the best 4 horses in the field, that doesn't mean they will finish 1-4. You hope the cream rises to the top and none of your horses quit down the stretch.

Superfectas are high variance and you can go quite awhile between cashes. If you are hitting 3 of the 4 regularly, then you're probably doing something right. Just be patient and the big winners will happen.

Aside from a carryover situation, I don't think there's a better value at the track than the superfecta. You could play a ten race card for $24, which a legitimate shot to make a few hundred dollars. Just about anybody can afford that action.


Anonymous said... - Learn how to turn $500 into $5,000 in a month!

[url=]Make Money Online[/url] - The Secret Reveled with Binary Option

Binary Options is the way to [url=]make money[/url] securely online

Anonymous said...

Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up.
The words in your post seem to be running off the screen in
Firefox. I'm not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with web browser compatibility but I thought I'd post
to let you know. The design look great though! Hope you
get the issue fixed soon. Cheers

Feel free to surf to my page - free government money grants

Anonymous said...

Sweet blog! I found it while surfing around on Yahoo News.
Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News?
I've been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Thank you

my web page :: binary options scam

Anonymous said...

Hmm it looks like your blog ate my first comment (it was super long) so I
guess I'll just sum it up what I wrote and say, I'm thoroughly enjoying your blog.
I as well am an aspiring blog blogger but I'm still new to the whole thing. Do you have any recommendations for beginner blog writers? I'd certainly appreciate it.

my weblog get free money to start a business

Anonymous said...

Spot on with this write-up, I actually believe that
this website needs a lot more attention. I'll probably be returning to read through more, thanks for the advice!

Also visit my blog post: win free money

Anonymous said...

Good day! I could have sworn I've visited this site before but after looking at many of the posts I realized it's new
to me. Regardless, I'm definitely happy I discovered it and I'll
be bookmarking it and checking back often!

My blog post Cedarfinace review

Anonymous said...

I do consider all the iԁeas you have introducеԁ for
youг post. They are reаlly conѵinсing
аnd will certainly worκ. Still, the ρоsts аre too brief for nοviсes.
Could you ρlease lеngthеn thеm a little
from nеxt time? Τhаnks for the post.

Feel free to visit mу wеblog diamondlinks review